Weighing in on the Oscar race....

So far this season we have seen one of the most thrilling and unpredictable races in quite a few years. Even with the PGA and SAG awards handed out, much is still left in the open, and I think right up until Oscar night there will be many categories that will simply be too close to safely call. Of course most of the tension comes from Ben Affleck's Best Director snub...

We all know to win Best Picture, you need Oscar nominations in Directing, Editing, Screenplay, as well as nominations from the SAG, PGA, and DGA guilds. Plain and simple. Any other year this would be a closed case for 'Argo' winning. It's picked up all the necessary precursors, and from what we can tell will most likely win the DGA Award this coming weekend as well. Why can't we just put 'Argo' and call it a day? Either way you look at it, the directing snub hurts, as does 'Argo's' lack of nominations (It's not even one of the top-3 most nominated films). Regardless, if a movie wins the PGA, SAG, Critic's Choice, Golden Globes, and shows up as Roger Ebert's favorite movie of the year (regardless of being an underdog (see 'Crash')) - that's as safe a bet as any. 'Lincoln' has yet to win any major Best Picture awards. As of now, it's barely clinging to life... I'd say even if Spielberg manages to win the Director's Guild, 'Argo' still has the advantage. 'Silver Linings Playbook,' though good with nominations, failed to receive a DGA nomination, which is essentially the kiss of death, and is anyone talking about 'Life of Pi' right now - good or bad?

Best Picture: Argo
        Underdog: Lincoln

The acting races get pretty tricky. After SAG, some things have been made pretty apparent:

Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln. Case closed)
        Underdog: Sorry, not happening....

Best Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables)
        Underdog: *See Best Actor's Underdog prediction...

... while the other two races still have a bit of tension. Jennifer Lawrence beating Jessica Chastain at the SAG Awards was the final kick in the pants for 'Zero Dark Thirty.' So far this season, Kathryn Bigelow's film has ben criticized, attacked, and now largely snubbed at the Oscars. Chastain needed the SAG win to cling on to any chance of winning her first Oscar... She'll just have to continue waiting. Lawrence is far ahead in this race as of now, though speculation of Emmanuelle Riva sneaking ahead is not difficult to imagine. 'Amour' is faring strong in the Oscar race, and how poetic would it be for the oldest acting nominee to win her first Oscar... On her Birthday??? The Oscars love the French, and they love old people (see last year's The Artist and oldest acting winner Christopher Plummer for examples). Riva is now posing a real threat.

Best Actress: Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook)
        Underdog: Emmanuelle Riva (Amour)

And Best Supporting Actor - finally a race too close to call, even after SAG, which Tommy Lee Jones managed to win. Consider that Christoph Waltz won the Golden Globe, and Philip Seymour Hoffman won the Critics Choice, no actor has emerged as a clear favorite. As all of the nominees are past winners, so there is no one actor that is necessarily 'due.' However, Robert De Niro still shows all the signs of a surprise win in the end. Out of all the nominees, his last Oscar win was the longest ago (32 years for 'Raging Bull'), he has a strong likability factor (both as an actor and in the film), and how poetic would it be if both Daniel Day-Lewis and Robert De Niro won their third Oscar on the same night? It's an extremely exclusive club (last joined by Meryl Streep last year, prior to that it was Jack Nicholson in 1997) and it would be greatly deserved. Plus, if Jennifer Lawrence manages to lose the Best Actress race, this is the perfect category to award 'Silver Linings Playbook' in some way. This is a race to keep an eye on.

Best Supporting Actor: Robert De Niro (Silver Linings Playbook)
        Underdog: Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln)

Perhaps the most interesting race now is Best Director. With Affleck slated to win the DGA (we shall see, though), the question will be who will win the Oscar? Obviously Spielberg is the most logical choice. He has a tendency to win for war movies ('Schindler's List,' 'Saving Private Ryan'), and the most nominated film needs to walk away with something. Ang Lee would be the only other option. Creating the most technically-awesome film of the year, 'Life of Pi' would be a richly deserving winner.  Perhaps the BAFTA's will help shed light on this race (assuming the DGA goes 'Argo' crazy). As for now, this is the really exciting race of 2012.

Best Director: Steven Spielberg (Lincoln)
        Underdog: Ang Lee (Life of Pi)

Once more guild awards are announced, the technical categories will become more apparent. The question has been asked 'what other Oscars can Argo win?' A Best Picture winner always wins at least 3 Oscars, and I believe that will be the case. So far, Editing, Score, and Screenplay are the closest races to watch, and don't be surprised to see 'Argo' sneak up and steal awards right out from under 'Lincoln.' After all, the Oscars don't award the best, per se, they award the film with the best publicity, ads, and buzz. Right now, 'Argo' has nothing to lose.....

SAG Predictions

Tomorrow is the Screen Actor's Guild Awards, and along with tonight's Producer's Guild Awards (just announced as 'Argo') we will begin to see the voting trend for the upcoming Oscar ceremony. At this point in the 2010 race, it seemed to be all sewn up for 'The Social Network,' until 'The King's Speech' pulled off a surprise PGA win, followed by a SAG win, followed by a DGA (Director's Guild) shocker. These three awards tend to be the most accurate barometer for predicting Best Picture of the year. Of course, there could be a split between the three, and in a year as rich as this one, I would not be surprised in the least. Should 'Argo' win the Ensemble award to go with it's brand new PGA Award,  we might have a new front runner in the Best Picture race...

Regardless, SAG is usually one of the strongest awards to keep an eye on. Actors make up a majority of the voting members in the Academy, and actors are the sole voters in the Screen Actor's guild. As such, whoever wins immediately becomes the frontrunner for the rest of the year. Remember last year when Jean Dujardin pulled off an SAG upset, beating favorite George Clooney? Oscar. Let's take a look at the nominees:


OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Sally Field - Lincoln
Anne Hathaway - Les Miserables
Helen Hunt - The Sessions
Nicole Kidman - The Paperboy
Maggie Smith - The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

Looking at this list logically, Anne Hathaway is the only foreseeable winner. Her road to the Oscars thus far has been unblemished. Amy Adams and Jacki Weaver received Oscar nominations in place of Nicole Kidman and Maggie Smith, but that doesn't seem to really effect the race. Hathaway is leaps beyond her competition, and she should easily win. Who wouldn't love to see a crazy Sally Field speech, though?

Prediction: Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables)
Spoiler: Sally Field (Lincoln)


OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Alan Arkin - Argo
Javier Bardem - Skyfall
Robert De Niro - Silver Linings Playbook
Philip Seymour Hoffman - The Master
Tommy Lee Jones - Lincoln

Swap Christoph Waltz for Javier Bardem and you have our boring Oscar lineup. Most think Tommy Lee Jones is the front runner, but let's weigh the options. Alan Arkin won an ensemble award for 'Little Miss Sunshine' in 2006 and his performance is not a flashy piece of work. Bardem recently won for 'No Country For Old Men' and 'Skyfall' is far from his best role. Hoffman picks up his film's sole nomination for the night, and De Niro, the acting legend, has yet to receive a SAG award. I have a feeling we could see some love going De Niro's way, especially considering 'Lincoln' is Daniel Day-Lewis's picture.

Prediction: Robert De Niro (Silver Linings Playbook)
Spoiler: Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln)


OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Jessica Chastain - Zero Dark Thirty
Marion Cotillard - Rust and Bone
Jennifer Lawrence - Silver Linings Playbook
Helen Mirren - Hitchcock
Naomi Watts - The Impossible

This is undoubtedly a tough category to call. Eliminate Cotillard & Mirren (who were both dropped in favor of Quvenzhane Wallis and Emmanuelle Riva at the Oscars) and most likely Naomi Watts. This leaves Jessica Chastain and Jennifer Lawrence. Chastain won last year for the Best Ensemble in 'The Help,' but this year she is 'Zero Dark Thirty's' sole nomination. I think this could show less love for the film then critics would have led us to believe. She will have her time to win, we all know it. It feels right for Jennifer Lawrence, this time.

Prediction: Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook)
Spoiler: Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty)


OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Bradley Cooper - Silver Linings Playbook
Daniel Day-Lewis - Lincoln
John Hawkes - The Sessions
Hugh Jackman - Les Miserables
Denzel Washington - Flight

Thankfully Hawkes was dropped at the Oscars in favor of Joaquin Phoenix, who gave arguably the best performance of the year. Cooper's reward is his nomination. This leaves Day-Lewis, Jackman, and Washington. I don't think the love for Jackman is as strong as everyone is led to believe, though singing roles generally carry more clout with voters. Should Daniel Day-Lewis win, he will have a record 3 Best Actor wins under his belt. Denzel Washington has yet to win, and yes his film is nowhere near as substantial as 'Lincoln,' his role is no less challenging, and if voters are bored of the predictability of 'Lincoln' winning, he would be a richly surprising and deserving spoiler.

Prediction: Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln)
Spoiler: Denzel Washington (Flight)


OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A CAST IN A MOTION PICTURE
Argo
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Les Miserables
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook 

Past winners have included 'The Help,' 'The King's Speech,' 'Inglourious Basterds,' 'Slumdog Millionaire,' 'No Country For Old Men,' 'Little Miss Sunshine,' 'Crash,' and 'Sideways.' In general, they seem to predict Best Picture a little less than half of the time. If everyone is right in predicting an 'Argo' Best Picture upset at the Oscars, it needs this win, otherwise, consider that idea a foolish dream. 'Lincoln' and 'Silver Linings Playbook' seem like the front runners, but this could all come down to simple math. The majority of Best Cast winners goes to the film with the most number of actors nominated. This year, the film with the biggest cast (according to SAG) was 'Argo' with 13 actors. Close second was 'Les Miserables' with 12. When in doubt - go with statistics.

Prediction: Argo
Spoiler: Les Miserables

Amour (Jo*****)

Michael Haneke is no doubt a quiet filmmaker, one who revels in moments of silence, of characters in the simple acts of life. Amour, the film that turned heads when it appeared in most major categories when the Oscar nominations were announced, is no doubt the smallest film of the nominees. Set almost entirely in an apartment and dealing with one couple the entire film, this is masterful storytelling.

With a dramatic opening showing police breaking into the empty apartment and discovering the wife's deceased body surrounded by flowers, the film then backtracks to establish our characters: Georges and Anne. One day while eating breakfast, Anne simply freezes - unresponsive to her husband's calls. A stroke. There is nothing overly dramatic about the moment. From that point on, we watch the painfully slow digression of Anne and Georges's diligent care and protection of her.

The film does not serve a plot. This is a movie about life and the people we know. So often we hear about the elderly succumbing to sickness and death - how often do we wonder what these people used to be? Anne receives a visit from a pupil of hers, now a famous concert pianist. He asks about her apparent illness, and Anne quickly orders a change of subject. Georges, late in the film, sits in solitude listening to a piano recording and recalls a memory of her sitting at their piano, deep in focus.

Haneke has a true sense of filmmaking and each of his scenes are gems in and of themselves. His cast is no less impressive, with Jean-Louis Trintignant so brilliantly carrying the film alongside Emmanuelle Riva, now the oldest Oscar nominee for acting since the Oscar's inception. The eerie realness with which she captures a woman trapped in a stroke victim's body is uncanny, and the amount of emotion she can convey just with her eyes is shocking.

Of course this film will find its audience, and that is not everyone. At over two hours, this is a film that requires patience, and respect. This could have easily been an overlooked film, but thanks to the deserved Oscar nominations perhaps a wider audience will come to see this film. Heartbreaking and honest, Amour left an indelible mark on me.

(Awards potential: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor (Trintignant), Best Actress (Riva), Best Original Screenplay, Best Cinematography, Best Foreign Language Film)

Jo's Favorite Movies of 2012

11. The Impossible
10. Flight
9. Skyfall
8. Amour
7. Lincoln
6. Argo
5. The Master
4. Beasts of the Southern Wild
3. Silver Linings Playbook
2. Zero Dark Thirty
1. Life of Pi

Zero Dark Thirty (*****)

Kathryn Bigelow is quickly cementing herself as the premiere filmmaker of the day. Following her Oscar triumph for 'The Hurt Locker,' 'Zero Dark Thirty' nearly blows it out of the water. A film of sophistication, intelligence, and craft, the epic manhunt for Osama Bin Laden is gloriously brought to life without a flaw to be found.

Following the nearly decade-long manhunt following September 11th, the film brutally treks the hunt not just for Bin Laden, but his associates and counterparts. Hiding throughout all corners of the Middle East, we are given a clear understanding of the means by which some would go to capture the ultimate target. Opening on the torture of one such terrorist, we see waterboarding, humiliation, starvation - all at the hands of CIA and military persons. It's not pretty, and it sets the tone for the rest of the story.

One such CIA operative is simply known as Maya, played by Jessica Chastain. We learn she was recruited right out of high school. She's been hunting Bin Laden for 12 years. She has no boyfriend, she has no friends. This mission is her life. Another director might have played into the female element when depicting such a character. Not Bigelow - Maya is strong-willed and trumps all her counterparts. She is one of the most sharply-written and heroic female characters I can remember in quite some time, and Chastain is the perfect actor to fill her shoes.

What you might remember from news stories is perhaps true, perhaps not - perhaps the film embellishes certain aspects of the story. Who's to say for sure. As a film itself, 'Zero Dark Thirty' speeds by with such a clear goal that the audience barely has time to catch a breath (despite its nearly 3 hour length).

What else can be surmised in a brief review for such a monumental film? The interest comes not in the actual raid (depicted in a tense 30 minute finale to the film) but in the slow buildup, false leads, acts of terrorism, all with Maya at the heart. The Oscars truly did some injustices towards this film - Kathryn Bigelow's absence from the Best Director nominees is sinful, as is the omission of a truly great Original Score. Regardless, this is a film that will perhaps come to define the post-9/11 mindset of our country and serve as a reminder of the great year for film 2012 was.

(Awards potential: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actress (Chastain), Best Original Screenplay, Best Editing, Best Cinematography, Best Original Score, Best Sound Mixing, Best Sound Editing)