Official 93rd Oscar Predictions

 

It's been a year. What else can be said? With the impact of COVID, the extended qualifying period for eligible films, an increase in streaming nominees, this year's Academy Awards feel messy, unresolved, and far from cookie-cutter. Where last year I had seen the eventual Best Picture winner (Parasite, ah such bliss that was) in October, I don't think I had seen this year's winner (details to come) until February. While I don't like many of the nominees (in fact I actively despise a few Best Picture nominees), this has actually shaped out to be one of the more interesting years in many races - so many of which feel like absolute mysteries. Now that BAFTA and SAG are complete - this is as clear a picture as we will have for these races. Without delay:

BEST PICTURE

1. Nomadland
2. Minari
3. Trial of the Chicago 7
4. Promising Young Woman
5. Judas and the Black Messiah
6. The Father
7. Sound of Metal
8. Mank

As much as I despised "Trial," I acknowledge it is in prime upset territory given its recent SAG Ensemble victory (the winner of this wins Best Picture approximately 50% of the time) and its key nominations (and despite a Best Director snub. Remember Green Book? Argo? Best Director isn't always needed anymore). 

On paper, it has to be "Nomadland." It won PGA. It won The Critic's Choice. Golden Globe. BAFTA... Does anyone hate it? I admit it's a very abnormal film to win Best Picture, but this is a very abnormal year for anything. A film with a single female lead and a cast of virtually all non-actors. There's no plot. It's slow. It missed SAG Ensemble (though so did Shape of Water & Green Book... I think the fact that Frances got nominated is enough to rest easy). It feels very much like "Boyhood" which was once a front-runner then was snubbed for a showier movie (Birdman). Will it win? I think so. Chloe Zhao came out of the far recesses of indie cinema to bring us this timely drama, and it stands to reason this will be the second-ever film to win Best Picture directed by a woman (The Hurt Locker). 

The wildly weird "Promising Young Woman," which got all the essential nominations needed along with "Nomad" (Director, Editing, Acting, Screenplay) seems primed for an upset. Is that film as widely regarded, especially when put to count on a preferential ballot? (the film with the highest average of ranking (ie, most 1st, 2nd, 3rd place votes) wins). I personally would rank "Woman" relatively low on my ballot, and "Nomad" relatively high. Wouldn't you? 

I had hope for "Minari" earlier this season, and I still suspect an outside chance. The anonymous ballots from Oscar voters in recent weeks all hold the film in high regard. The film shows the struggle and acceptance of a Korean family into middle America in the 1980's. Amidst the #StopAsianHate news this year, it feels like the perfect "in" to reward this film. It could still happen, but its loss at SAG and elsewhere (not to mention a Korean-language film just won last year... Are they going to reward what is essentially a foreign-language film back to back?) makes this more of a long shot. Unless it becomes the first movie since "Spotlight" to win only 2 awards... Or the first in nearly 90 to win only  Best Picture (depending on a few other races). 

Bet on "Nomadland," but with so many surprises in recent years I wouldn't be surprised for any sort of upset. While I correctly gleaned "Parasite" as the victor last year, even that was technically an upset. It will be a nail-biter up until the final envelope. If there is a year when a film wins only Best Picture and no other statue, this feels like it. 

**I moved Trial of the Chicago 7 up over Promising Young Woman because I have to imagine on a preferential ballot that the latter would rank lower on more peoples' ballots... It's simply too divisive to win, right? Along the same logic, Minari is in 2nd place on account of its universal adoration and a gut feeling that if there is an upset, that would be it...

BEST DIRECTOR

1. Chloe Zhao (Nomadland)
2. Lee Isaac Chung (Minari)
3. Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman)
4. David Fincher (Mank)
5. Thomas Vinterberg (Another Round)

Lock this category up. The narrative for at least 6 months has been that Zhao will become the second female Best Director winner, and deservedly so. While some years they reward this for the film with the most visual effects or trickiest camerawork, Zhao's film is sheer poetry and a marvel of tone and place. It's a deserved win. 

This category was almost majority female (many thought Regina King's work on "One Night In Miami" would sneak in here) but the simple fact we have 2 female nominees is groundbreaking in itself. Hell, there are only two white male nominees here. When has that ever happened? Lee Isaac Chung's personal work in "Minari" shows more skill (I think) over Fennell's twisted yet sloppy debut (my opinion). Fincher should be so happy to be here for one if his weakest pictures, and Vinterberg continues the tradition of having a rogue foreign film nominee - albeit deserving. If Chloe Zhao loses it will be a major shocker.

BEST LEADING ACTOR

1. Anthony Hopkins (The Father)
2. Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom)
3. Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal)
4. Steven Yeun (Minari)
5. Gary Oldman (Mank)

Aside from Oldman's head-scratching inclusion here, this would be a list for the ages. Again, another category that is majority persons of color. What a year. 

I am walking off a cliff here. Going down with this ship, whatever. Let me explain. Chadwick is far and away the front-runner to win here. He took home Golden Globe, SAG, Critic's Choice... The narrative is there - that he died of cancer while giving it all for his last performance. He was a fine actor, and yet this performance was a very clear miss for me. I think I'm alone here - and I acknowledge I'm letting personal bias get in the way of predictions. No matter how you spin it, Chadwick is the apparent winner here. 

Let's look at Anthony Hopkins. His last Oscar victory (in fact his only victory) was for "Silence of the Lambs" 30 years ago. Since then, he has amassed 6 nominations (including last year for "The Two Popes"). If you have a 1 in 5 chance of winning in a given year, then he's due. Not to mention his performance is almost universally acclaimed as his best work to date. It's an actor's dream. It's showy as hell. Should one of the world's best actors really only have 1 Oscar this late in his career? "The Father" is the last of the Best Picture nominees to get released - and it's showing with thunderous praise - that late-breaking support could set him over the edge. It's the freshest performance in voters' minds. He also just took the BAFTA in a not-so-surprising upset. Hometown advantage, sure, but Olivia Colman also won her respective BAFTA race and no one seemed to suspect what was to come...

I have put personal feelings aside in the past - predicting Glenn Close over the clear superiority of Olivia Colman... Assuming Julie Christie would prevail over one of the screen's greatest performances by Marion Cotillard. Predicting Viola over Meryl "Thatcher..." If you're betting, put your chips on Chadwick Boseman. This is a losing gamble for me (I think) - but if I'm right, I want those bragging rights. There have only been 2 posthumous acting winners in Academy history. Those are pretty slim odds. Also think on this - that Best Actor hasn't gone to a performance that wasn't in a Best Picture nominee since 2009 (Jeff Bridges in Crazy Heart). Hey, maybe even Riz Ahmed (brilliant, devastating work by the way) has a better shot than we think...

BEST LEADING ACTRESS

1. Andra Day (The United States vs. Billie Holliday)
2. Viola Davis (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom)
3. Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman)
4. Frances McDormand (Nomadland)
5. Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a Woman)

WHAT. A. CATEGORY. In 50 years when I reflect back on Oscar races (if I still care by then), I imagine the 2020 Best Actress Race will be one of the most memorable. Usually we can predict fairly easily with the precursors. Whoever wins the most is probably winning the Oscar. It's not 100%, but it's genuinely simple math. Last year, Renee Zelwegger won virtually every award that was available. Of course she was going to win the Oscar. i could have napped through this category when it happened. 

Well... Let's look at the tea leaves. Andra Day won the Golden Globe (in an upset) but was snubbed at SAG and BAFTA. Carey Mulligan won Critic's Choice but was snubbed by BAFTA (and lost the SAG, which she realistically should have won to have stayed a threat). Viola Davis shocked us all and won SAG (but of course she was snubbed by BAFTA (and if you're curious, yes - they still nominated Chadwick Boseman). McDormand only won BAFTA but was competing against virtually none of these women.  Kirby is so lucky to be included at all. 

Who wins?? Many prognosticators still think Mulligan is ahead. How? She has won virtually nowhere and her performance isn't as showy as the rest. Others think McDormand given her film's clout. I counter with - which actor has won their 3rd Academy Award with such a subtle performance... and one that has won no precursors? 

I'm telling you that it has to be Davis or Day. We have gone 92 years with only one black actress to win this award (otherwise it's been entirely white actors) - Halle Berry in "Monster's Ball." It's time for some more women to join her company. In fact it's embarrassing that it hasn't happened since. Viola Davis as Ma Rainey is such a technically brilliant role, but her screen time amounts to no more than 20 minutes. How funny that if she were to win, she would have won a supporting actress Oscar for a lead role (Fences), and a lead actress Oscar for a supporting one (Ma Rainey)... Both August Wilson adaptations, no less. 

This award is Andra Day's. I just feel it deep down. Yes, she was snubbed by SAG (so was Regina King), but this performance has it all. She sings her own songs in the style of Holliday. She has nudity. She has graphic sex scenes. She does drugs. She even dies a tragic death. She has a single long-take of an outpouring of emotion. She plays a real person... In the history of the Oscars, she is a cookie-cutter example of what typically wins Best Actress. Despite her being the film's only nomination (I'm not surprised, the film is tragically awful), that hasn't stopped other actresses from winning here in the past - I'm looking at you, Julianne Moore. In such an untraditional year, I think someone like Day can just squeeze in by a hair. 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah)
2. Paul Raci (Sound of Metal)
3. Sasha Baron Cohen (The Trial of the Chicago 7)
4. Leslie Odom, Jr. (One Night in Miami)
5. Lakeith Stanfield (Judas and the Black Messiah)

Kaluuya is making the traditional "sweep" that I mentioned so many other actors have in years past. He hasn't lost anywhere. It's a powerhouse performance. He's already been nominated before. The only shakeup is the surprise inclusion of Stanfield (who is arguably the film's lead) who might siphon off votes. Still, this feels so utterly locked that putting Raci in second place is nothing but sheer personal preference. 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Yuh-Jung Youn (Minari)
2. Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm)
3. Glenn Close (Hilbilly Elegy)
4. Olivia Colman (The Father)
5. Amanda Seyfried (Mank)

This category, like lead actress, has been full of twists and turns. Jodie Foster won the Globe (the first time the winner in this category was snubbed at the Oscars in literally dozens of years). Youn won SAG and BAFTA. Bakalova won Critic's Choice... Even Close, who has won nothing, still has a shot if voters realize she's about to become 0:8 on Oscar wins... She would also become the first person to win an Oscar for a performance that was also Razzie-nominated. 

In my heart the clear winner is Bakalova. She stole every scene she was in and performed daring feats that are likely to go unnoticed to many. Her film is simply "not" what many imagine as an Oscar-winner. Still, maybe there can be a tie. Youn is so brilliant in "Minari" that about halfway through the film I got the feeling deep down that this is a master at work - and that her performance is so clearly the year's best in this category. I think it's down to those two only. Whoever sneaks ahead will truly be deserving. I even think Colman deserves this and my only hesitation is that she won in a surprise only a few years ago. How many times would the Academy allow Colman to upset over Glenn Close, anyways?

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. The Father
2. Nomadland
3. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
4. One Night in Miami
5. The White Tiger

I think this race is closer between "Father" and "Nomad" than we believe. Where Zhao's film is slow, winding, plotless, "The Father" is full of slight of hand and sharp dialogue. It's the director's own adaptation of his play. It's the more writerly work - but are voters going to see Nomadland and check it without a moment's hesitation? For now, I predict "The Father's" witty approach will sneak out a victory - and as sad as that sounds, Zhao is still going home with at least 2 Oscars. I put Borat so high only because the bottom two underperformed and with this being Cohen's third nomination (along with a slew of writers on board... 9 nominated writers, to be exact), maybe this could be the odd category out where voters say (excuse me), "fuck it." 

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. Promising Young Woman
2. Minari
3. Trial of the Chicago 7
4. Sound of Metal
5. Judas and the Black Messiah

While it's not my favorite screenplay, there is still the narrative that no female has won for screenwriting since Diablo Cody in 2007 (Juno) and now we have a year when 2 female writers have a chance at winning in both categories. It's certainly the most ambitious of the nominees. Also the one with a few major plot twists. While Sorkin won for "Trial" at the Globes, he has certainly written better screenplays in his sleep. Chung's personal story in "Minari" could upset, but of the two writing categories, this seems like the more locked option. 

BEST FILM EDITING

1. Trial of the Chicago 7
2. Sound of Metal
3. Promising Young Woman
4. The Father
5. Nomadland

This is an updated prediction from the original post. With Trial winning the ACE Eddie Award (not 100% accurate, but still a good forecaster), I have switched from "Sound" which always felt like an odd choice to win in this category. The logic is that Sound and Editing are often tied, and no film since "The Departed" has won Editing without a sound nomination. Metal has won most of the precursors, but I was never able to understand why that film would be heralded as an achievement in film editing versus sound design. With Trial's victory, this feels like a safer choice - with crosscutting back and forth through time and scenes. This allows every Best Picture nominee to walk away with at least 1 trophy each (should everything play out). My personal pick would still be Promising Young Woman, a messy film yes, but razor sharp in its assembly. 

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
2. Emma
3. Mank
4. Pinnochio
5. Mulan

Another category where I have zero empirical evidence to back my claims. "Mank" is the sole Best Picture nominee here, but black and white movies don't fare well here unless they're called "The Artist." "Ma Rainey" has been racking up the tech precursors, and with its period setting it seems logical here (however it's tiny in scope and almost every character has only 1 costume in the film). "Emma" seems more logical... Period, British, etc, but then I remember how my ass was handed to me for predicting "The Favourite" over "Black Panther." Also, who even saw "Emma?" At least voters would have seen "Ma" in order to see these nominated performances. 

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. Mank
2. The Father
3. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
4. News of the World
5. Tenet

And here I go picking a black and white nominee. Why? I guess because the film (inspired by the behind-the-scenes of the writing of "Citizen Kane") draws from many historical sets as well as those iconic locations in Kane. Also because there's no other clear front-runner here. I would say typically don't pick the contemporary nominee here, but "The Father" uses art direction in such a specific way to confuse the audience that actually maybe it's closer to winning than I'm giving it credit. Also, Production Design & Costumes are almost always tied - meaning you need a nomination in both to even being considered to win. This isn't a rule- just a weird coincidence people started noticing in recent years. That bodes well for films starting with the letter M. 

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

1. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
2. Pinnochio
3. Hilbilly Elegy
4. Mank
5. Emma

To be honest, "Hibilly" being nominated here scares me when considering Glenn Close an upset. Makeup and acting are often closely tied. Iron Lady, La Vie En Rose, Les Mis, Dallas Buyer's Club, etc. Then again, maybe this should signal I should be predicting Viola over Anra Day in Actress... The conundrum...  "Ma Rainey" won the guild, and while it doesn't have very showy prosthetic work, my mind still races to that sweaty, makeup-drenched face of Viola Davis, silver teeth and all, to convince me that is the probable winner. "Pinnochio" is that prosthetic-driven feature that might win, but then again, I hadn't even heard of this movie prior to nominations, and I'm sure you hadn't, either. Case closed. 

BEST SOUND

1. Sound of Metal
2. Soul
3. News of the World
4. Mank
5. Greyhound

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1. Soul
2. Minari
3. Mank
4. News of the World
5. Da 5 Bloods

When I saw "Soul," I specifically asked them not to turn off the TV until I could see who composed the music. I was that impressed. In retrospect, I can't think of a single melody or tune that stuck out, nor could I even describe the style of music. Still, that initial gut reaction would have me pick "Soul" out of all the nominees, although "Minari" might be a close second. Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross are double-nominated here (Mank & Soul), and while they might have vote-splitting, "Soul" has taken virtually every award thus far. John Batiste is the third nominee for the film. Trent & Atticus are the most recent winners in this category to share the award (more than one composer) for "Social Network." "The Last Emperor" in 1987 is the last victor to have 3 nominees. 

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1. "Husavik" (Eurovision Song Contest)
2. "Speak Now" (One Night in Miami)
3. "Io Si" (The Life Ahead)
4. "Fight for You" (Judas and the Black Messiah)
5. "Hear My Voice" (Trial of the Chicago 7)

I'm kind of sick of the "message" songs that play over credits being so consistently nominated here. It happens year after year.  They're so boring. What happened to the good old days of "My Heart Will Go On" or "Let It Go" or any number of radio hits? I kind of love this category though for the ease with which you can screen all the nominees. Take 15 minutes and listen. What's stopping you? My favorite is the beautiful Italian ballad "Io Si" by always-a-nominee-never-a-winner Diane Warren. This is her 12th nomination. Could she take it? It won the Globe (but that doesn't mean a whole lot). Another part of me feels like the cheesy pop style of "Husavik" really sets that song apart and could drive a surprise win for a comedy film. "Speak Now" is actually lovely, somber, with Leslie Odom Jr's vocals melting right off the screen. Could it win, though? 4 & 5 are simply forgettable, enough said. 

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. Nomadland
2. Mank
3. Judas and the Black Messiah
4. News of the World
5. Trial of the Chicago 7

How was "Trial" even nominated here? This is an easy win for "Nomadland." This award almost always goes to the Best Picture nominee of the bunch, and it helps to have a Visual Effects nomination. Luckily, "Mank" missed that nom, though it did just surprise at the Cinematography Guild. Black and white is hard to resist, but Nomad feels very much like the lock here. 

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1. Tenet
2. The Midnight Sky
3. Mulan
4. The One and Only Ivan
5. Love and Monsters

What even are half these films? "Tenet" is the only movie that fits the bill in this category and it's the most widely seen. Many of its effects were actually quite impressive, too. How many Christopher Nolan movies have won this award, already? "Midnight Sky" has picked up a few precursors here and there so don't be surprised to see it win. 

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1. Soul
2. Wolfwalkers
3. Onward
4. Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon
5. Over the Moon

Piece of cake. 

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

1. Another Round
2. Quo Vadis, Aida?
3. The Man Who Sold His Skin
4. Collective
5. Better Days

The second consecutive year where a documentary was also nominated for International Feature (Collective). No matter, the Directing nomination for "Another Round" helps clarify this race immensely. Also - this is the third year in a row in which the winner here would have also been nominated for Best Director (and up until now, they all won that award, too...). I may switch to "Quo Vadis, Aida," a movie I think is the best I saw all year - it's powerful and emotional, and feels more important than a story of a few high school teachers getting drunk on a daily basis. We'll see. For now, it's "Another Round." 

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. My Octopus Teacher
2. Crip Camp
3. Time
4. The Mole Agent
5. Collective

What might have been up in the air has been largely settled with the surprising precursor sweep of "Octopus Teacher" (which I found somewhat dull... Besides the point). Oftentimes it's the odd film out that wins. A film about a sea creature certainly fits the bill. It also doesn't hurt to be so largely available on Netflix (a studio that has won in this category before, don't forget). 

BEST DOCUMENTARY, SHORT SUBJECT

1. A Concerto Is A Conversation
2. A Love Song for Latasha
3. Colette
4. Do Not Split
5. Hunger Ward

The old trend used to be to pick the Holocaust film among the shorts (Colette), but that fad has begun to fade. Our current trend? Pick the film with the most eye-catching title (Learning to Skateboard In A Warzone If You're a Girl, Period, End of Sentence, etc). Latasha features on Netflix but I don't know how good of a film it is overall. Pick Concerto. It has ties to recent Best Picture winner "Green Book" and it apparently a lovely story among a slab of nominees that are increasingly depressing. 

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

1. The Letter Room
2. Feeling Through
3. Two Distant Strangers
4. The Present
5. White Eye

I finally saw all 5 and I am sticking with the established front-runner. Aside from the actually terrible "Two Distant Strangers" (suffering tonal and taste problems galore), the other 4 are all fairly worthy nominees. Strangers still has a chance given the recent news (it's essentially a story about a black man getting shot and killed day after day a-la Groundhog's Day.... Yikes). The Letter Room was the most accomplished to me - starring Oscar Isaac. It isn't as dark as the others, and it balances romance, comedy, and the weight of its subject matter with ease. I am borderline on predicting Feeling Through - the most visually interesting film, and a story of a blind and deaf man being helped home by a homeless youth. It's uplifting if not a bit cheesy. To be honest, it feels right up the voters' alley and already feels like a winner. The Present and White Eye are foreign, and as shallow as it sounds, it's rare for a foreign film to win here when matched against those in the English language. 

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

1. If Anything Happens I Love You
2. Burrow
3. Opera
4. Genius Loci
5. Yes-People

The odds on favorite is "If Anything Happens," and now having seen all 5 this choice makes sense. My favorite is Opera - a wildly original 9-minute film that is quite frankly impossible to describe and utterly compelling. Genius Loci is beautifully-drawn but feels very messy and absurd. Burrow, the one with cute animals, might have a shot - but the animation and story is nothing to write home about. I loved Yes People, but again, it's foreign - and those have a hard time in the short category no matter which category. This is a fairly easy call. 

Favorite Movies (... of the Best Picture Nominees 2020)

 It was a weird year. I saw no more than 5 movies in theaters (the previous year I clocked in around 80). I don't think I saw enough actual release movies to make an actual list of my favorites (or least favorites) of the year. Here we are. 

The Oscars are rolling around in t-minus 1 month, and while the nominees leave much to be desired (and I think it's an incredibly weak year), here is my chance to vent about the 8 films nominated - my opinions, thoughts, etc, and perhaps we could potentially categorize this as a "best of" list in some aspect or another. 

The nominees (in order of preference, worst to best) are: 

8. THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7

One of the most boring, utterly forgettable Best Picture nominees I can remember in at least 10 years. It plays like a parody of an "Oscar bait" movie, and feels artificial and saccharine all the way down to the large ensemble cast and cringey one-liners. It's not Aaron Sorkin's best screenplay, but it might be his worst screenplay. I was bored within 15 minutes and nothing ever managed to grip me along the way. Virtually every nomination this film received was undeserved. 

7. MANK

I dare you to find someone who actually loved this movie. What might have been an intriguing peek behind the scenes of the making of CITIZEN KANE instead turned into a snoozefest with an uninspired Gary Oldman performance at its heart. From the abysmal sound mix (made to sound as though you are in the echo of a grand theater... straining) to the tedious, churning screenplay, I was left puzzled as to how so many utter legends in front and behind the camera could make such bland material. 

6. PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN

I thought I really liked this movie the first viewing, despite the incredibly challenging conclusion that left me feeling uneasy. A second viewing confirmed my suspicions - that this movie is merely a colorful pop of design with not a whole lot to its substance. Carey Mulligan is effective as a woman hell-bent on revenge, but the aspects of her plot (luring men in bars while pretending to be drunk) raise more questions than they do create tension. The soundtrack is memorable and Emerald Fennell's direction is certifiably her own (one of two female Best Director nominees this year... a first). Overall, I don't think I could stomach a third viewing. 

5. JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH

Dare I say that Daniel Kaluuya gives the year's best performance as a Black Panther leader in Chicago - a leader whose own life and work is spied on by an FBI plant (Lakeith Stanfield) with the ultimate aim of bringing down a revolution. This is certainly one of the most exciting films of the year, full of a richness in dialogue, razor sharp editing, and some of the best sequences of the year. This movie left me floored. I'm so pleased to see it with so many nominations.

4. THE FATHER

The last of the Best Picture nominees I saw, and in many ways the most challenging. A story of an old man succumbing to dementia and his daughter who struggles with the ramifications. Anthony Hopkins is giving bar-none the best performance of his life and easily the best performance of the year in any category. The film is so brilliant in the way it shows dementia from his point of view - that is to say that scenes begin and end with no warning, characters change, furniture moves, and everyone but Hopkins seems to be in on it. It's unnerving, at times magical, and ultimately an incredibly moving portrait of a mind slowly beginning to unwind. 

3. NOMADLAND

Chloe Zhao (the director, soon to be only the second woman to win Best Director) made one of my all-time favorite films a few years back called "The Rider." Here, she finds similar themes to explore in the American west, a modern western of unemployed and disparate people searching for meaning in a life that is anything but normal. Frances McDormand is so perfectly modulated as Fern, a woman whose husband has died and drives from odd job to odd job over the course of a year. The film is virtually plotless - the characters are sparse (and mostly non-actors). The ultimate story seems to be of a woman learning to let go and go on living her life. It's the best ending of the year of any movie I saw. 

2. SOUND OF METAL

Just brilliant, sublime, powerful filmmaking. The story of a heavy metal drummer (Riz Ahmed) who suddenly begins to lose his hearing, and the journey he takes on the road towards recovery (or so he thinks). First, he enters a rehab clinic run by a deaf veteran (Paul Raci in my favorite supporting performance of those nominated) who teaches him in the ways of ASL and learning to live without hearing. All the while, Ahmed seeks to return to normalcy with cochlear implants. The sound design is bar none the main highlight of the film. We see the world through his perspective. And the ending - an utterly devastating blend of tragedy and acceptance. I couldn't heap more praises on this movie if I tried. 

1. MINARI

The real gem of 2020 for me was MINARI, easily my favorite movie I saw all year. It's the story of a Korean family who emigrates to southern America in the 1980s. The father dreams of farming, of growing crops, of living the American dream... His wife is more skeptical. Their children are merely along for the ride. It's so perfectly packed with heartwarming moments, and scene after scene is a perfect realization of all that great cinema can be. If there's one movie that could represent 2020 and help ease all the suffering of the year, this must be it. No villains, no death, no heartbreak - I was left with nothing but warm feelings. 

John's Favorite Movies of All Time (Pt II)

Again a new year has come, and I frankly have seen so few new movies in 2020, I don't think I could even compile a "best of" list if I wanted to. What will even be nominated at the upcoming Oscars? I couldn't think of 5 movies to rub together in any category. The best movie I saw all year by a mile was "Portrait of a Lady on Fire," (also one of the last movies I saw in a physical theater), but does that even count as a 2020 release?

Instead, I have ventured further into film history, spending much of this year revisiting movies I haven't seen in a while. While my top 10 list from nearly a year ago (!!!) still feels very accurate in my mind, I can't help but think there are so many more movies that barely missed out. Consider this a continuation of the original 10, or possibly an extension... Who said a favorites list needs to be comprised of only 10 movies, anyways? In alphabetical order: 

ALMOST FAMOUS (2000)

Cameron Crowe's love story to rock music (and apparently many aspects of his own personal childhood) is one of the great "feel good" movies that I always go back to. A teen journalist named William Miller tags along on the road with one of his favorite bands, Stillwater, and along the way ultimately discovers a bit more about himself than he initially planned. The movie is full of iconic lines and performances (particularly Frances McDormand as Miller's mom and Kate Hudson as Penny Lane, a groupie who is as enigmatic as she is alluring). There are very few movies with such an amazing soundtrack, and even fewer that have a narrative to match. I can't think of a flaw. 

E.T. THE EXTRA-TERRESTRIAL (1982)

I don't think I gave ET enough credit when I first saw it as a kid. I was scared to death of ET in the field, and the sight of his water-logged body in the river will still make me turn away. I think I was just late to the party when I realized that Spielberg's film is in many ways his greatest achievement in a long list of memorable movies. There's something so beautiful to see the wonder of discovery through our protagonist's (Elliot) eyes, and the slow relationship that forms between him and the alien builds to one of the most beautiful crescendos and a finale that I don't think will ever leave my eyes anywhere close to dry. This is a lot more than just another kid's movie. 

GOODFELLAS (1990)

When I first saw "Goodfellas" I think I was put off by the amount of narration, the relentless pace, and the lack of empathy for almost any character. It seems, however, that the more I watch the more I find myself wrapped up in this air-tight story of the mob and the rise and fall of Henry Hill. We learn every aspect of the life of a gangster; from how they plan a robbery, to how their wives do their makeup and gossip over the dinner table. It's a remarkable accomplishment by director Martin Scorsese who manages to find such high art in the lowliest of criminals. I don't think he's yet made a better picture.

HANNAH AND HER SISTERS (1986)

The uncomfortable feeling of separating the director from the art is not all too difficult in this case, and with "Hannah and Her Sisters" it's simply undeniably one of the most emotional and well-written scripts ever produced, even by Woody Allen standards. The story of three sisters with the bookend scenes of Thanksgiving dinner, we weave in and out of each of their lives as these women struggle with infidelity, unemployment, pregnancy, betrayal, and so much more. We still have the neurotic Woody Allen tropes that come to identify most of his pictures, but for one reason or another, "Hannah" rises above all the rest and lands firmly as a timeless portrait of family that I will never get tired of rewatching. 

IT'S A WONDERFUL LIFE (1946)

Another movie I really wouldn't have taken seriously in any other year, but rewatching it this last Christmas for the first time in many years changed my mind about the importance of Frank Capra's holiday classic. The hero journey of Jimmy Stewart's character George Bailey culminates in one of cinema's most iconic "deus ex machina" finales, but the story of Bailey in the setting of Bedford Falls feels so timely, even nearly 80 years later. One wouldn't presume that Capra approached this as a political story, but the wealth inequality that sneaks through the story helps all the more in establishing some of the most powerful moments in the movie. Here we are again with another tear jerker of a finale, and that incredibly powerful closing: no one is a failure who has friends. 

MARY POPPINS (1964)

Disney's crowning achievement of live-action movies (arguably even through to today) is simply one of the most wonderful and infectious movies I've ever seen. Julie Andrews' debut is practically perfect in every way as the magic nanny with two parts sass and perfect pitch to match. I'm sure everyone has seen it, and even felt awakened by re-examining the story through the lens of "Saving Mr Banks," but the film still triumphs as a technical marvel of visual effects, of some of the most catchy original music, and the ultimate triumph of the story of a man who comes to find there is more to life than just his fiduciary responsibilities.  

NETWORK (1976)

Paddy Chayefsky's screenplay is quite simply a wonder of writing, both in terms of the sharp characters drawn, and its uncanny glimpse into the future of news media and pop culture. The story of an unhinged news reporter who vows to commit suicide on air and ultimately blasts his way into the stratosphere of television ratings is at times funny, cruel, heartbreaking, and nauseating. Here is another movie with so few characters earning our sympathy (though Beatrice Straight's monologue certainly goes down as one of cinema's best), and yet the technical "wow" factors of director Sidney Lumet and the endlessly powerful cast makes this something you won't ever forget. 

NORTH BY NORTHWEST (1959)

I go back and forth in my mind as to what is Hitchcock's "best" movie, and I usually settle on a close race between this, "Vertigo," and "Rear Window." For sheer entertainment value, I can think of no movie more deserving than the vast scale and epic journey taken by Carey Grant across northeastern America. A case of mistaken identity as only Alfred Hitchcock could pull off, this story follows Roger Thornhill, aka George Kaplan, as he evades kidnapping and murder attempts all while sinking deeper into a story of espionage and mystery. It's also one of the director's funniest films, and Grant just charms our socks off like so few movie stars have ever done. 

PARIS, TEXAS (1984)

Wim Wenders' film is simply visual poetry. A man emerges from the desert after having been missing for some time. He rejoins his brother and family, and slowly the mystery surrounding his disappearance becomes all the more moving. Harry Dean Stanton's lead performance is subtle in ways that almost any other actor might have spoiled. It's a western with no villain. It's a love story with no kiss. It's a revenge movie but only within the character's own heart. The final scene of this movie, a peculiar setup in which two people are positioned on opposite sides of a one-way mirror, is possibly my all-time favorite scene setting and features some of the absolute best cinematography and writing you will ever see. 

THE PASSION OF JOAN OF ARC (1928)

At the end of the list is the oldest movie I have featured; a silent retelling of the trial of Joan of Arc. A French picture directed by Carl Dreyer, the movie is notable for having almost been lost in a fire only to have a preserved copy found years later. Full of grand sets and such unique camera angles, what is fascinating is the face of our heroine - Renee Jeanne Falconetti, an actress of such considerable talents that many still consider her performance the best of all time (in movies, that is). Told almost entirely in closeups, the story revolves around the utter torment of a woman who meets her fate despite many chances to save her own life. For a movie almost 100 years old, it still feels so fresh, inventive, and has lost none of its power over the years. That's remarkable filmmaking. 

John's Favorite Movies of All Time

With COVID-19, impending doom, self-quarantine, and a busy schedule filling my waking days (don't forget I'm a full-time nurse), my movie-going year has been lackluster. In fact, where last year at this time I had already seen perhaps 15 movies in theaters, so far in 2020 I have seen just two (albeit both incredibly beautiful and feminist films: "Portrait of a Lady on Fire," and "Invisible Man," reviews to come soon... hopefully). The past few months have instead been an introspective look. Rewatching old movies, seeking out those films I had missed in years past, and realizing what draws me to see movies in the first place. 

In the midst of all this global chaos, I feel it's as good a time as any to reflect on "John" and tell you what movies really mean to me. I can think of no better exercise than to put forward a top-ten list of my favorite movies of all time... At this present moment. There is no way I could rank these #1 - #10, nor could I rationalize why some films made the list in lieu of others ("1917" just last year, for instance, is one of the most stunning films I have ever seen, and I think about it often). Maybe I'll remake this list in a couple years and see what's on top. Some I have rewatched in the past few weeks. Some I haven't seen in years. All are still vivid in my mind. All are unique. Here we go (in alphabetical order): 

2001: A SPACE ODYSSEY (1969) 

In theaters, I don't know if I've seen any other movie as frequently (odd, considering it's 50 years old). The mystery and spectacle of Stanley Kubrick's masterpiece is in its absolute coldness and gradual progression. Scenes slowly march along. We wonder if there's even a plot? Still, there is not a moment out of place. There's not a moment of levity (as far as I can remember). 2001 stands apart as a movie so wholly supported by its technical achievements, it's stunning visuals, and it's ambiguous ending. With each new viewing I find another aspect to marvel at. I know just as many people would find it unwatchable.  HAL 9000 is certainly one of the most cold villains in movie history. The soundtrack of accompanying Richard Strauss waltzes is virtually at the point of parody now. Nevertheless, Kubrick has created something that stands the test of time, and even now, it's an enthralling piece of cinema. 

AMADEUS (1984) 

Amadeus was what I often said my favorite movie was throughout high school and college. It certainly has everything going for it. Milos Foreman (of "One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest" fame) has an implausible and zany comedy drama here: a fictional retelling of a feud between composers Salieri and Mozart ("Wolfgang... Amadeus Mozart"). How much is fictional? I would assume the majority, right down to a plethora of American accents and modern vocabulary. Still, the film strikes at something so pure - the envious nature of jealousy, the battle between man and God, creation, and destruction... The film rightly won Best Picture in 1985, and it's so clear why. The film's finale is an extended sequence of Mozart in bed dictating music to an eager (and destructive) Salieri. It's one of my all-time favorite scenes in any movie. There's no action, there's no clever dialogue... It's two men, diametrically opposed, working together to create something above each of them. It's a faultless movie.  

AMELIE (2001) 

If I had to pick a movie of these ten that I would say is #1, I might think it's this 2001 romantic comedy / fairy tale / visual poem. I don't think I've yet seen a movie so luxurious to look at and absolutely marvelous to watch on a sad lonely night. It's a cinematic dream - a collection of "how did they film that?" shots that encompass the life of a young French woman on her search for love and an ambition to fix the lives of those around her. It's so funny, it's romantic, and full of an array of music and sound. How fitting, then, that the film's climax - a kiss - occurs in virtual silence (all the while a bored cat watches from across the room). When I think of movie magic, AMELIE is what comes to mind. 

FANTASIA (1940) 

Weird right? While the rest of the world has been jumping on the Disney+ bandwagon, seeing the latest Frozen movie, talking about their excitement over the remake of Mulan and Lion King (gag), Fantasia has always stood apart for me as a singular vision of art and creativity from a studio that so clearly prides itself on commercialism and traditional structure. I've seen the movie countless times. Maybe the first time I saw it, I was thrilled by the moving colors and lack of plot. Now, seeing it for the enth-time, I marvel at the visual language of the structure, the music composition, the increasingly-complex stories, and the haunting ending that certainly does not have the "Disney" satisfaction. How marvelous that a film studio had the audacity to create something so singular in a time when filmmaking was still in its relative prime (Gone With The Wind has just been released the previous year). A movie doesn't have to have a plot to work on an emotional level. Likewise, it does not need major Hollywood stars to act out what emotions we should feel. In that sense, Fantasia is a movie so singular that I can't think of anything in film memory that even comes close to its ambition. 

THE GOOD, THE BAD, AND THE UGLY (1966) 

It was my dad that got me into Westerns, but I hadn't really considered the difference between the traditional works by the likes of John Ford to the more edgy "spaghetti westerns" until years later. Still, I find Sergio Leone's epic the most accessible (and the most comic). What is ultimately a simple story of a search for buried gold becomes something so much more grand in scale by the simple addition of powerhouse actors like Clint Eastwood and Eli Wallach. The soundtrack is something everyone knows, even if they haven't seen the movie (I guarantee it). Ennio Morricone's score is cinematic in a way no other composer has yet achieved. The film's conclusion at Sad Hill Cemetery is one of the all-time greatest showdowns in film history. Hell, it's the best. It's an overall masterpiece of setting, tone, and character. 

NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN (2007) 

Many might say Joel & Ethan Coen's best film is 1996's "Fargo," but their Best Picture-winning thriller from 2007 is absolutely one of the all time best movies I've ever seen. I first saw it in theaters with my dad and we both had tepid responses to the quiet, slow pace and depressing ending. Each consecutive viewing has confirmed in me that this is one of the greatest movies ever made. An air-tight story of three men (Josh Brolin as the "hero," Javier Bardem as evil incarnate, and Tommy Lee Jones as the old sheriff) who never share a scene together and each of whom face a climax that they never expected. Based on the Cormac McCarthy novel (and I read it), the Coen-esque humor finds a place here in an otherwise graphic and heady drama that weaves in and out of the "cat and mouse" genre. Tommy Lee Jones is especially good as the film's moral center. I promise, there is not a flaw to be found. 

ORDINARY PEOPLE (1980) 

I'm sure many people haven't seen this movie, and instead might know it as 'the film that beat Raging Bull for Best Picture.' I promise, this is a special movie. It's Robert Redford's debut as a director, and what a stunning debut it is. It's a family drama about a mother, father, and son dealing with the death of a family member told in stunning realism. Mary Tyler Moore's icy mother is a highlight, one of my all-time favorite performances on film (she sadly lost an Oscar to, well, let's not go there). Redford finds a clever way to employ flashbacks to add shading to his characters, and our hero named Conrad (the son - Timothy Hutton- in an Oscar-winning performance) finds solace in a newly-found psychiatrist. It's one of the saddest movies I've ever seen, and the final scene between father and son always finds a new way to rip my heart in two. I can't encourage enough people to see this movie. 

PARASITE (2019) 

I know the movie is less than a year old, but I've seen it possibly 7 or 8 times now, and I can't think of a better description than "air tight." Director Bong Joon-Ho made objectively the best movie of 2019. It's a black comedy, it's a thriller, has elements of horror, is utterly heartbreaking, and endlessly watchable. How thrilled I was to see it become the first foreign film to win Best Picture, all the more exciting for knowing that the film will stand the test of time. It's a satire on the conditions of wealth inequality in the world today, but as a straight family drama it functions just as well. In 10 years, I know I will still vividly remember the first time I sat down and watched this movie. 

THE PIANO (1993) 

Director Jane Campion managed to touch a nerve in her immensely beautiful film about a mute woman moving to New Zealand to become the new bride of a cold land-owner. Her only instrument of emotion is her piano, carried in stow alongside her clothes, and ultimately claimed by a converted Native man (Harvey Keitel) who bargains for her to win back the instrument through sexual favors. The movie is absolutely jaw-dropping from a technical level, but the slow romance that builds between the mute Ada (Holly Hunter) and Keitel is something that continues to challenge me and strike such an interest at the same time. Anna Paquin as the mischievious daughter of Ada is another highlight. The film is also so fascinating for its themes of colonialism and feminism. If nothing else, the film's score is my all-time favorite album of music in movie history. 

ROSEMARY'S BABY (1968) 

I've see Rosemary's Baby many times in the past but never thought of it as "an all-time favorite" until fairly recently. Roman Polanski's big Hollywood breakthrough is a taught achievement in building suspense and near-flawless dialogue. It's a horror movie that builds so slow that oftentimes I forget what happens next and still sit in virtual suspense as I worry what will happen next. Credit for Polanski, a controversial figure today but clearly a master of the craft, and Mia Farrow, one of the most tortured performances on film and certainly the basis for many modern horror tropes. The film is meticulously paced and not a scene is out of place. I'd say it's a film I can always go to with a bowl of popcorn and a blanket and find immense comfort in getting lost in, but that sounds weird, doesn't it?

92nd Academy Award Official Predictions

Greetings to those faithful readers (are you out there?) and apologies for the nearly year-long hiatus! Have you been to the movies this year? We certainly have, and not to speak for Maureen, but this has been one of the most thrilling, genuinely great years for the cinema in a while. For one reason or another, writing reviews has not been on my list of priorities, but I have been ever-faithful in my dedication to seeing as many new releases as possible....

Which leads us to the forthcoming Oscars, set to air this coming Sunday. Who will win?? Every year has had its fair share of suspense, and while many of the main categories at play are virtual locks, the simple goal of accurately predicting Best Picture remains my most coveted goal (and don't remind me of how difficult this is, we haven't got it right since 2015 when "Birdman" was the logical choice - I will reinforce that Maureen had logically been predicting "The Shape of Water" in 2018, but I jumped off the "Get Out" cliff based on some bitter tea leaves...). Sit down, get some coffee, lets deep dive into this year and recap some of the great movies of 2019:




BEST PICTURE

1. Parasite
2. 1917
3. Jojo Rabbit
4. The Irishman
5. Once Upon a Time... In Hollywood
6. Joker
7. Little Women
8. Marriage Story
9. Ford v Ferrari

Let me preface this entire conversation with an undeniable disadvantage: 1917 & Parasite were my favorite movies of the year by miles and miles. It's not often that one's favorite movies are also the undeniable front-runners for Best Picture (I can't remember a single year), but we need to already count this category as a win. Let me also mention one other fact: I, John, have a bias for Parasite...

There is precedent for a Parasite victory. It got a surprise nomination AND win at the Screen Actor's Guild Award, and the cast received nearly a minute-long standing ovation for simply walking on stage to present their film. The film has also received all the key nominations a Best Picture winner needs: directing, editing, screenplay, the aforementioned SAG Ensemble, DGA & PGA nominations... Where Roma last year certainly turned off voters, and in retrospect the "Green Book" win makes a lot more sense... Parasite could go the distance as the first foreign winner in Oscar history. Perhaps voters will feel compelled to finally take the plunge after a repeat of #OscarsSoWhite and the simple fact that Parasite is a beloved film with deep support in the industry. Where Roma was oftentimes a chore to sit through, Parasite is nearly universally-loved by audiences.

On paper, the logical winner is 1917. Maureen will attest. In fact I wonder if that is the more certain winner. Sam Mende's virtually-flawless film won the Golden Globe, DGA, PGA, and BAFTA Awards. If you know anything, you know that the one-two punch of DGA & PGA is an undeniable sign. DGA's accuracy in predicting Best Picture is a staggering 78%, PGA is 71% (don't worry, I did the math). SAG is a mere 50% accurate. The simple fact that PGA uses the same preferential voting method and still selected 1917 should be even further proof. Maybe the most convincing evidence: that no Colin Firth film nominated for Best Picture has ever lost. Shakespeare in Love. The English Patient. The King's Speech.

Both film's aren't without detractors. 1917, albeit a more technical achievement to its acting, was snubbed across the board by SAG, which used to spell doom for a film's Best Picture chances (we still looked past it and assumed La La Land had it). More recently, it only seems a Best Picture winner needs some acting nominations, not just Ensemble. Both Green Book and The Shape of Water were snubbed for ensemble in the last two years. If 1917 got nothing, what does that mean? Brokeback Mountain, La La Land, Saving Private Ryan all won DGA & PGA and lost Best Picture, and in a majority of cases, the upset came from the SAG Ensemble winner. And while DGA is often the gold standard for predicting Best Picture, it has been incorrect in predicting the top prize in 2019, 2016, 2015, 2013..... This isn't a done deal.

Other films like Once Upon a Time, The Irishman, Joker have all repeatedly proven too divisive, have lost steam, or just aren't logical. The only film on the rise is Jojo Rabbit which has virtually the same nominations as last year's Green Book and has stealthily been winning guilds left and right. In the top 3, I dare say Jojo is bronze medal far off in the distance.



BEST DIRECTOR

1. Sam Mendes (1917)
2. Bong Joon Jo (Parasite)
3. Quentin Tarantino (Once Upon a Time... In Hollywood)
4. Martin Scorsese (The Irishman)
5. Todd Phillips (Joker)

A lot of people assumed voters would want to give Tarantino a directing trophy this year, but there is no denial that directing, like Best Picture, is a 2-way horserace. Sam Mendes is virtually locked to win his second trophy after his 1999 debut for American Beauty. 1917's technical achievement is right in line with the Academy's recent preference for visual effects-heavy films that make you ask "how did they do that?" (Gravity, Life of Pi, The Revenant, Birdman...). What little hope Director Bong had of a victory has shrunk with each new award going to Mendes for a deserved victory. But really though, how did he do that??



BEST ACTOR

1. Joaquin Phoenix (Joker)
2. Adam Driver (Marriage Story)
3. Antonio Banderas (Pain and Glory)
4. Jonathan Pryce (The Two Popes)
5. Leonardo DiCaprio (Once Upon a Time... In Hollywood)

This award feels like it's been locked up for Phoenix ever since the film's premiere last fall. For a career of continually-improving work (I think Phoenix is the finest actor working today now that Daniel Day-Lewis has 'retired'), this feels a little too safe. While I preferred the soul-bearing work of Adam Driver in his second consecutive nomination, he might have to settle for a trophy on his next nomination. My only concern is whether voters want to give the character of the Joker a second Oscar (following Heath Ledger's 2008 win in supporting). After all, up until last year, the Academy had an objective bias against comic book movies. Still, to bet against Phoenix who has swept all the major awards, is simply foolish.



BEST ACTRESS

1. Renee Zelwegger (Judy)
2. Saoirse Ronan (Little Women)
3. Scarlett Johannson (Marriage Story)
4. Cynthia Erivo (Harriet)
5. Charlize Theron (Bombshell)

Another category in which the frontrunner has won literally every possible award. My initial thoughts last fall were that Saoirse Ronan could finally win on her 4th nomination at the ripe old age of 25. She might have to wait. While part of me feels like "Judy" is such a lackluster film, even I can't deny that Zelwegger's return to the big screen is show stopping in every sense of the word and will be an enormously deserved victory (her first win in Lead Actress). Hey, some people could even say "they finally gave Judy Garland an Oscar!" although let's be real, that's just silly.



BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time... In Hollywood)
2. Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood)
3. Joe Pesci (The Irishman)
4. Al Pacino (The Irishman)
5. Anthony Hopkins (The Two Popes)

This category is flooded with all the major Oscar winners of the early 1990's... All for one. I think it was Katherine Hepburn that said actors always win an Oscar for the wrong movie, and I can't help but feel this sentiment so deeply for Mr Pitt (who is already an Oscar winner for producing 12 Years a Slave... (we got that win right, by the way)). Pitt oozes charm in every scene of his film, but this win will clearly be in recognition of a career, not this performance (I think he still should have won for Moneyball). Pesci was a personal favorite, but the vote splitting between these two icons of The Irishman can't help, especially since neither has been picking up any trophies. There really isn't a foreseeable runner-up, but Tom Hanks has finally been nominated again in a well-deserved turn, and he hasn't missed any nominations the whole way... The good thing about Brad Pitt winning is that his speech will certainly charm our socks right off.



BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Laura Dern (Marriage Story)
2. Scarlett Johannson (Jojo Rabbit)
3. Florence Pugh (Little Women)
4. Margot Robbie (Bombshell)
5. Kathy Bates (Richard Jewell)

I think this will be a wholly deserving victory for Dern, who is absolutely scene-stealing in her brief role in Marriage Story. Where many thought she wouldn't be as strong a contender following SAG, BAFTA, Critic's Choice, etc, she continues to win. The runner-up (and I think this is actually pretty close) is certainly Johannson as the radiant mother in Jojo. If there's one thing voters love, it's a wonderful mother in a supporting role (well, besides I, Tonya). Johannson is hurt by her double nominations, but this really feels like a prime place to reward the film and the actress, since Renee is so far ahead for Leading Actress. Still, do I have definitive proof that Laura Dern is vulnerable? None at all. Don't bet against her unless you're feeling lucky.



BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. Parasite
2. Once Upon a Time... In Hollywood
3. Marriage Story
4. 1917
5. Knives Out

A non-Best Picture nominee isn't winning (sorry Knives Out). The strength of 1917 isn't it's writing (although by all accounts the actual written screenplay is a heartbreaker). Noah Baumbach will have to wait a little more since Marriage Story seems to have fizzled out. A lot of people suspect Quentin Tarantino is a lock for his third Oscar, but I refuse to believe that a voter will look at Parasite and Once and have any doubt as to which is the more original story. There's even precedent for a foreign winner in this category, too. I can't help but see this as a lock.

**I will say that should we see Parasite lose this award, I suspect it's chances at Best Picture would be officially over.



BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. Jojo Rabbit
2. Little Women
3. The Irishman
4. Joker
5. The Two Popes

A non-Best Picture nominee isn't winning (sorry Two Popes). The strength of Joker isn't in it's writing... Wait I'm repeating myself. Early thoughts were that The Irishman would be an easy win here, but then the film never really won any awards (as great as I think that film is). Logic (and half a brain) had people believing that Greta Gerwig's adaptation of Little Women would walk away with a victory in lieu of her snub for Best Director. The film's main achievement for many has been the adaptation of such a familiar book into something new and exciting. When's the last time a film's main praise has been in its writing? Still, Jojo Rabbit is curiously picking up a slew of awards (including the BAFTA and Writer's Guild). To be honest I'm not entirely certain why. It's now the safe bet. I want to hold out hope for Gerwig. I think it comes down to which film is more beloved, and to be honest that's been kind of hard to figure out.



BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. 1917
2. The Lighthouse
3. Joker
4. Once Upon a Time... In Hollywood
5. The Irishman

This category is stunningly awful for the inclusion of Once Upon and The Irishman, both respected films but in no way achievements of photography. This is the first time (I think ever) in which 4 films received more than 10 nominations in a single year (1917, Joker, Irishman, Once Upon...). It really might just be that with a shorter Oscar season, voters had less time to see as many films. The inclusion of The Lighthouse is so impressive here, and it's the only other nominee I could see deserving this spot. Where is Parasite? Ford v Ferrari? Little Women? Portrait of a Lady on Fire?

I digress. This is the night's biggest lock. Once one of Oscars biggest losers, Roger Deakins is assured to win his second Oscar in 3 years. When people talk about how great 1917 is, they are referring to Deakins' ghostly camerawork. I would bet anything on it.



BEST FILM EDITING

1. Parasite
2. Ford v Ferrari
3. Jojo Rabbit
4. The Irishman
5. Joker

One of the early indicator's that Tarantino's film wasn't as strong was it's lack of a nomination in this category, one of few a movie generally needs to win Best Picture. No fear for 1917 though, single-shot films (ie, Birdman) have been snubbed here and still won. So what wins? My money is Parasite, which won the Eddie Award (editor's guild) and would follow my belief that the film is on it's way to Best Picture. Generally a film needs at least 3 wins. Ford v Ferrari is also a logical choice, for it's racing sequences and high-octane finale. Then I remembered when we incorrectly assumed Baby Driver would win this category and instead Dunkirk pulled ahead. I think it's easy for people making predictions to assume the "racing" movie will win, but the general voting body of the Academy might just be checking off the film they prefer. Hacksaw Ridge did upset a few years back, though, so even a Jojo Rabbit win wouldn't entirely surprise me. Look out for this category.



BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. 1917
2. Once Upon a Time... In Hollywood
3. Jojo Rabbit
4. Parasite
5. The Irishman

This feels like a relatively safe category to call. I saw 1917 twice, and the second time I was even more enraptured by the never-ending sets and trenches, highlighted even more for the film's single-take appearance. What an accomplishment of art direction - a war zone as far as the eye can see in every direction. A burning town of twists and mazes... An underground bunker close to destruction. This flies in the face of this category's tradition of picking the film with large castles and historical detail. In fact I was prepared to go on this ledge completely on a hunch until BAFTA awarded 1917 the Production Design award and I felt a little more confident. It seems like the runner up would be a highly-detailed recreation of Hollywood in the 1960's. I would hold Parasite to a higher standard, but aside from La La Land I can't think of a recent, modern film winning this award, as impressive as it would be (let me remind you that the entire mansion and slum neighborhood was constructed from scratch).



BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1. Little Women
2. Jojo Rabbit
3. Once Upon a Time... In Hollywood
4. The Irishman
5. Joker

How Joker was nominated is entirely baffling. Besides a cheap red suit, name one other costume in the film you can remember. Go ahead, I'll wait... I think this is actually one of the more difficult categories of the night, since Costumes & Production Design are often curiously won by films that are nominated in both. That would fare well for Jojo, Once, and Irishman. And still, the idea is that the frilly skirts and historical feminine dresses are crack for Oscar voters. That did guide us absolutely nowhere last year in predicting The Favourite over the deserving win by Black Panther. In the end, though, I really don't know what the alternative is. Jojo and it's familiar Nazi suits? Hollywood and it's plethora of leather and gogo boots? Jojo won the guild award and Little Women was snubbed (I know, right?). To be honest, your guess is as good as anyone's.



BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1. Joker
2. 1917
3. Little Women
4. Marriage Story
5. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

Usually a Best Picture front-runner can sweep other categories into the mix, which probably got Thomas Newman excited at the prospect of finally winning on his 15th nomination (!!). Curiously, though, the winner all season has been newcomer Hildur Guonadottir and her brooding score for Joker. It would certainly be a deserving victory. I wouldn't be surprised by a Newman victory (and in fact it's my favorite score of the year next to Little Women), but maybe he'll get lucky on his next nomination. You know what they say: "sixteenth's time the charm..."



BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

1. Bombshell
2. Joker
3. 1917
4. Judy
5. Maleficent: Mistress of Evil

About time! Finally the category has five nominees as it always deserved. I'll be the first to say that this is a weak year to have 5. I think the logical favorite is Bombshell. Since the film's first trailer, the buzz around Charlize Theron's transformation into Megyn Kelly was overwhelming. People even forgot to talk about John Lithgow's incredible change into Roger Ailes. I can't help but dwell on this tiny knot growing in my stomach when I recollect that movies like Dallas Buyer's Club and Les Miserables managed to win with little more than some cheap rouge and dirty cheeks. I don't know how they won, but I wonder if Joker could pull off that same style of victory. If they are going to pick the "dirty" winner than I would much prefer 1917's attention to period hair and the ever-increasing challenges of trudging through mud and fire. Still, I have to shut off my brain and remind myself that prosthetics and false teeth and fat suits  is an easy choice. I'll give you three reasons why: Vice, Darkest Hour, The Iron Lady.



BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1. 1917
2. The Lion King
3. Avengers Endgame
4. The Irishman
5. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

As much as I hated The Lion King (my least-favorite movie of the year, no less), I can't deny that the film's visual effects are some of the most stunning images I have ever seen on film. Can voters look past the film's quality and reward an extended demo-reel for photorealism? This category almost always rewards the Best Picture nominee when it's available, and the Irishman's uncanny valley de-aging is certainly not going to pull this one out. Endgame, the biggest film of all time, logically seems safe, but then we realize that here is it's only nomination, and also that the subtle work in First Man managed to win over the film's first half. No modern Marvel film has ever won the award, why start here? What visual effects were there in 1917, you might ask? Beats me. Still, I can't help but think this is a fairly safe win for the film.



BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1. “I’m Gonna Love Me Again” (Rocketman)
2. “Stand Up” (Harriet)
3. “Into the Unknown” (Frozen 2)
4. “I’m Standing With You” (Breakthrough)
5. “I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away” (Toy Story 4)

I advise you listen to the five nominees when possible. It's a quick 15 minutes of your life to realize how utterly bad the majority of these nominees are. Diane Warren's submission for Breakthrough (a film I had never heard of, frankly) reeks of the disqualified and brief nomination for the "what movie??" that was Alone Yet Not Alone. Randy Newman's bizarre nomination here is less surprising when you realize that he has been nominate for every Toy Story film (and won for #3). Frozen 2 might have a better shot had it not been snubbed in Animated Feature. Harriet and Cynthia Erivo might have a good shot, but the song itself is a tonal mess that I frankly found unlistenable. Logically, Elton John is set to win another Oscar for his catchy tune from the criminally under-nominated Rocketman. The year's real winner: Glasgow, from a small film called Wild Rose. A stunning song that many people (including myself) had assumed would win in a cake walk. Take a listen.



BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

1. Klaus
2. Toy Story 4
3. I Lost My Body
4. Missing Link
5. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World

From the beginning of this race and even before nominations, I knew that the Academy dislikes sequels. In fact out of the 18 nominees in this category, only Toy Story 4 was a sequel (that's a mere 5%). I frequent the movie website goldderby.com and regularly make predictions for Oscars and such. In place of Dragon, I was safely assuming Frozen 2 would have made it. Otherwise, these were my predicted nominees. Logic says Toy Story has this, but then you factor in its Golden Globe loss (to Missing Link), it's Annie Award (animation guild) loss to Klaus (in a rare sweep), and the simple fact that almost everyone can conclude that Toy Story 4 is not as good as Toy Story 3. Voters oftentimes like to pick winners with a unique style, and Klaus's gorgeous 2D animation (I checked, it's not computer generation in the traditional sense), plus its availability on Netflix, plus it's wit an charm, I think this is an easy race to call. I would bet on the amazing I Lost My Body if there was any hint that voters don't view this category as "Best Kid's Film."Unfortunately, this is pretty much just that.



BEST SOUND EDITING

1. 1917
2. Ford v Ferrari
3. Joker
4. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
5. Star Wars: The Rise of SkyWalker

Is anyone else still deeply disturbed by last year's sound sweep for Bohemian Rhapsody? (or the simple fact that Rhapsody walked away with more Oscars than any film all year.... I shudder) It's simply foolish to try and determine whether voters will split the sound categories or pick one film across the board. Dunkirk. Mad Max. Bohemian. Gravity. They all won both. The rare chance of a split is sometimes a surprise (Arrival for Mixing, Hacksaw Ridge for Editing for one). 1917 feels so safe, even in the face of the sound-heavy revving in Ford. War films generally fare better anyways.



BEST SOUND MIXING

1. 1917
2. Ford v Ferrari
3. Ad Astra
4. Joker
5. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

See above. I rest my case.



BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. American Factory
2. For Sama
3. Honeyland
4. The Cave
5. The Edge of Democracy

I have admittedly only seen 1 (American Factory) which is already being heralded as the front-runner for a variety of reasons: Netflix, the Obama's production company, timely story about the American economy, etc. Yet again, the front-runner was snubbed (this year it was Apollo 11), so the support for many of these films is yet untested. Honeyland is the first documentary also nominated in International Film, so who knows whether that means more support. For Sama might have the emotional punch that will tickle voters' the right way. I'm not going to guess, but this is my least confident of all 24 categories.



BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

1. Parasite
2. Pain and Glory
3. Honeyland
4. Les Miserables
5. Corpus Christi

Second biggest lock of the night. Are we even kidding here?



BEST ANIMATED SHORT

1. Hair Love
2. Kitbull
3. Memorable
4. Daughter
5. Sister

The third consecutive year I have seen all the short nominees, and the third consecutive year I have felt so frustrated in determining the winner. Out of all categories, the shorts have the least amount of precursors, relying solely on personal emotion and Academy trends. One trend is that if there's a cute animal, chances are the film will win. Kitbull certainly hits it out of the park - a crudely animated film about a friendship between a fighter dog and an adorable black cat. However, another trend is to reward the film with the most 'celebrity' behind it. That bodes well for Hair Love, a charming film about a father and daughter, created by the likes of Issa Rae, Jordan Peele, and Gabourey Sidibe. Were I a voter, Kitbull or Memorable would certainly get my support, Memorable being a stop-motion film about the effects of Alzheimer's on a painter - beautifully captured through varying styles of impressionist art. If there's one lesson I've learned, though, it's a tough choice to pick your favorites here.



BEST DOCUMENTARY: SHORT SUBJECT

1. Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You're A Girl)
2. In the Absence
3. St. Louis Superman
4. Life Overtakes Me
5. Walk Run Cha-Cha

Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone harkens back to other winning titles like Period End of Sentence, The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life, and Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405. I mean, come on, do voters even care, or are they picking the film with the most eye-catching title? Still, a heartwarming documentary about kids learning to skate in Syria just sounds like a winner on paper already. Let's just go with it.



BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

1. The Neighbors’ Window
2. Brotherhood
3. Nefta Football Club
4. Saria
5. A Sister

My money is on The Neighbors' Window, a slick story with an actual beginning, middle, and end. Not too dark, but thoroughly entertaining. Oh, it's also the only film in English (sometimes look for the odd-film out, and the Academy famously loves to pick American among a group of foreigners). My personal opinion is that Brotherhood is the most accomplished of these 5, a beautifully-shot film anchored by a stunning performance (the father) that has better cinematography than at least 3 of the feature nominees. However, I imagine that it's dark nature, grouped alongside Saria (a messy narrative with a lopsided ending) and A Sister (one of my favorites but certainly too short and narrowly-constructed to win) might all get jumbled up and cancel each other. Look out for Nefta Football Club, since shorts starring kids usually win. I only rank it so low because the film (which is brief) is ultimately a long-running gag with a weak punchline. I think Oscar voters want to be perceived as having more taste.