Official 96th Oscar Predictiions

 

 

Time for our yearly check-in. I hope you've been going to the movies! While not my favorite year for cinema, there are undoubtedly some incredibly strong pictures this year, and several that I know I will be rewatching for years to come. It's most interesting to me to view this Oscars season as a reflection of another election year. Those Best Picture winners going back (Parasite, Spotlight, The Artist,...) don't always reflect the mood of the year, but to see a movie like Oppenheimer succeed when the very nature of politics seems destined to undue so much in this country, it's almost like a predetermined doom to award such an ultimately grim movie as the highlight of this year. Eerie foreshadowing, perhaps... It's fun that a big-budget biopic is finally poised to take the top prize again. It feels like Patton or Ghandi, movies that we don't really see anymore on such a grand scale - yet still current through the lens of 2023. So many nail-biters yet again this year, and it seems like Best Actress is forever doomed to remain the most up in the air category of the year. I love the suspense! Here we go:

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BEST PICTURE

I think there are 3 movies here that are the best of the year (Holdovers, Zone of Interest, Oppenheimer), and it's so amazing to think my top 3 are also nominated for Best Picture. While Oppenheimer ultimately falls in the lowest rank of this grouping, it's win will nonetheless be a wonderful thing to witness. This is an unforgiving movie that both challenges and rewards its viewers. A 3-hour drama set mostly in tiny rooms - but what a wonderful theatrical experience that I know so many voters would have enjoyed as well. The win feels all but assured. It's anyone's guess what's even in second place! 

1. Oppenheimer
2. Anatomy of a Fall
3. Poor Things
4. Barbie
5. The Holdovers
6. American Fiction 
7. The Zone of Interest
8. Killers of the Flower Moon
9. Maestro
10. Past Lives 

 

BEST DIRECTOR

Christopher Nolan has arguably been one of the most overlooked directors in this category (his only nomination prior to this was for (of all things) Dunkirk). This is perhaps his best movie so far - so mature and yet quintessentially engaging in a way that only Nolan has a knack for. Our remaining nominees are so far behind it's hard to know who's in second, but I would wager it's Justine Triet. Her film was arguably the second-most talked about movie of these nominees. 

1. Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer)
2. Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall)
3. Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest)
4. Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things)
5. Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon) 
   

BEST ACTOR

This category has been filled with some grisly choices recently (it's hard to even fathom 'The Whale' is a multiple-time Oscar winner), but there's buzz that a very subdued, focused performance might ultimately win in Cillian Murphy. He's collected BAFTA, SAG, and Golden Globe on his way to the trophy. I find it a curious performance to sweep so easily to a victory. I hold it all to the strength of the film as a whole. Giamatti is a close second (and my preferred choice). Cooper is a joke-and ultimately what a waste of a nomination.

1. Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer)
2. Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers)
3. Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)
4. Bradley Cooper (Maestro)
5. Colman Domingo (Rustin)

BEST ACTRESS

This has been such a nail-biter category year after year (Michelle Yeoh, Jessica Chastain, Frances McDormand, Olivia Colman,...) and we are set for what I see as a 3-way race. SAG went to Lily Gladstone. BAFTA for Emma Stone. The two each won the Golden Globe. Well? I really see arguments for each. Lily would be a momentous winner as the first Native American victor, and she's boosted by the peer support as evidenced by SAG. Emma is the young starlet-turned-producer. She carries her film single-handedly, and it's the brave sort of showstopping role that would be undeniable here. I see fit to throw myself off this cliff on the off-chance I'm right, but Anatomy of a Fall has been buzzing like crazy, and arguably this could be one of the closest races in history. All Sandra Huller needs to win is a razor thin 34% of the votes and the trophy is hers. It's unlikely, yes, but I'm feeling like a risk-taker. Should she lose - I suspect Lily Gladstone is the likely winner. No, I think Emma Stone is more likely.... No-

1. Sandra Huller (Anatomy of a Fall)
2. Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon)
3. Emma Stone (Poor Things)
4. Annette Bening (Nyad)
5. Carey Mulligan (Maestro)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Once my favorite category this year, but the snub of some great work, notably Charles Melton in May December, turned me against it a little. While it's great that Robert Downey Jr is finally on his way to his first Oscar, I still find it curious that this is the performance that has swept its way so easily to an Oscar. I still favor Mark Ruffalo's absolutely delicious performance - maybe my favorite of the year. This is an easy call. 

1. Robert Downey, Jr (Oppenheimer)
2. Ryan Gosling (Barbie)
3. Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things)
4. Robert DeNiro (Killers of the Flower Moon)
5. Sterling K Brown (American Fiction)

 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Almost baffling to me that this performance has truly lost not a single award at any stage. Some say it's the most-awarded performance in history (technically speaking). Da'Vine Joy Randolph is lovely, and ultimately I do think I might pick her of this line up. There were plenty of snubs (where is Julianne Moore in May December??), but this is the easiest race to call of the night - I promise. I just wish this wasn't The Holdovers only win.

1. Da'Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers) 
2. Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer)
3. Jodie Foster (Nyad)
4. America Ferrera (Barbie)
5. Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple)

 

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

It's so curious that an Alexander Payne film would lose here, given the frequency of his wins in the past (though technically he didn't even write this movie). Ultimately, another film pulled ahead, and the courtroom mystery of Anatomy of a Fall ultimately is proving to be too good to pass up. I love to see foreign-language films win these categories!

1. Anatomy of a Fall
2. The Holdovers
3. Past Lives
4. Maestro
5. May December  

 

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

This is a messy category (Barbie is adapted from what, a plastic doll?) and the clear winner here is a steamroller. American Fiction is a curious choice for me (it wasn't my favorite film), but the occasional lone screenplay win oftentimes happens and it makes sense when they do. It won the BAFTA on its only nomination, after all. There's a nagging sense in my head that they might just still go for Oppenheimer in a big sweep (after all, screenplays oftentimes go along with Best Picture). It just hasn't won any awards to justify it as a winner.  

1. American Fiction
2. Oppenheimer
3. Poor Things
4. Barbie
5. The Zone of Interest

 

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

This is the classic duel of 2 movies of equal prowess: Barbie & Poor Things. It feels like almost every year, a couple movies face off in this category alongside Costumes. Do you split the votes? Does one win both? I find for the sake of odds, it's best to go with a sweep mentality - and how could anyone deny the utterly boggling sets of Poor Things - a movie set in the yester-year European setting but also perhaps taking place 1,000 years in the future? Barbie had stunning work - but even I wonder if a film can win with only half its runtime committed to beautiful sets (nothing in the human world was really that remarkable). 

1. Poor Things
2. Barbie
3. Killers of the Flower Moon
4. Oppenheimer
5. Napoleon 

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Likewise, the costumes in Poor Things were something I'd never seen before. So intricate and stunning - I was imagining next Halloween the number of choices one would have as Bella Baxter. Seems silly to support it so certainly with Barbie's accurate recreations right there. This does feel closer than Production Design to me, but I really think that overall, the greater achievement is clear. 

1. Poor Things
2. Barbie
3. Killers of the Flower Moon
4. Napoleon
5. Oppenheimer

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

In retrospect, Oppenheimer's biggest strength isn't its photography, but it's certainly very assured work, and the sweep of such a big movie is going to pull this one into the winner's circle. I think we'll look back on this year and think it's weird that Poor Things wasn't rewarded for such a unique point of view. 

1. Oppenheimer
2. Poor Things
3. Killers of the Flower Moon
4. Maestro
5. El Conde

 

BEST EDITING

Easy win here. Nothing is even close out of the remaining four films. 

1. Oppenheimer
2. Anatomy of a Fall
3. Killers of the Flower Moon
4. Poor Things
5. The Holdovers

 

BEST SOUND

There's debate that Zone of Interest's unique soundscape could pull it to victory, but I don't think the film about the atomic bomb (and uses sound to the most extraordinary effect) will lose on this one - even though it is essentially a courtroom drama. 

1. Oppenheimer
2. The Zone of Interest
3. Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning Pt 1
4. The Creator
5. Maestro

 

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

This is the most difficult category of the night. No Best Picture nominee in the bunch, and frankly no film here really feels like it was in the running. Therefore, I don't think they will pick something like Napoleon - why reward something so few people saw? Godzilla seems likely, but that all changes when you think they've never nominated the monster before - why start rewarding him now? The Creator, a multiple nominee this year in sound (a frequent crossover with visual effects) feels then like the boring, but safe choice. 

1. The Creator
2. Godzilla Minus One
3. Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning Pt 1
4. Napoleon
5. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING 

Oh man. What to do. I'm seeing this through two lenses - the first being the 'Oscar-nominated lead' makeup winner. That's The Whale, Darkest Hour, Eyes of Tammy Faye, The Iron Lady, etc... Then there's the 'quirkly ensemble' makeup winner. I'm thinking Grand Budapest Hotel, Suicide Squad, Mad Max: Fury Road, etc. Maestro seems like the stronger choice in that Bradley Cooper's transformation was truly astounding - but he's far from winning the Oscar. Do voters feel the need to reward that film when they clearly have other favorites? Poor Things has a lot more characters in makeup, and the hairstyling (which they usually ignore in this category anyways) is out of this world. In the end, who's to say?

1. Maestro
2. Poor Things
3. Society of the Snow
4. Oppenheimer
5. Golda

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Boom. Done. 

1. Oppenheimer
2. Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Poor Things
4. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
5. American Fiction 

 

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

It seems hard to imagine anyone but Billie Eilish on stage winning her second Oscar. The last time a song won the Oscar and Song of the Year at the Grammys was My Heart Will Go On from Titanic. That's good company to be in.

1. What Was I Made For (Barbie)
2. I'm Just Ken (Barbie)
3. Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People) (Killers of the Flower Moon)
4. The Fire Inside (Flamin' Hot)
5. It Never Went Away (American Symphony)

 

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

If Anatomy of a Fall was here, it might have been a suspenseful race, but it's not suspenseful anymore. 

1. The Zone of Interest
2. Society of the Snow
3. Perfect Days
4. Io capitano
5. The Teacher's Lounge

 

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. 20 Days in Mariupol 
2. Four Daughters
3. The Eternal Memory
4. Bobi Wine: The People's President
5. To Kill A Tiger

 

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1. The ABCs of Book Banning
2. The Last Repair Shop
3. Nai Nai and Wai Po
4. The Barber of Little Rock
5. Island In Between 

 

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1. The Boy and the Heron
2. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-verse 
3. Elemental
4. Nimona
5. Robot Dreams

 

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

1. War Is Over: Inspired by the Music of John and Yoko
2. Letter to a Pig
3. Ninety-Five Senses
4. Pachyderme
5. Our Uniform

 

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT 

1. Red, White, and Blue
2. The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar
3. Knight of Fortune
4. The After
5. Invincible

Official 95th Oscar Predictions

 Yet another year has come and gone! While this website has largely gone dormant - it's still exciting to be able to approach the Academy Awards with a sense of suspense and curiosity - all the better due to this year's largely amazing crop of movies. I feel like it's said every year, but this year especially is full of some of the most suspenseful races I can remember, and so many of them! From Best Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, all the way down to the shorts, there is a sense of absolute uncertainty - something that will make this year's Oscar ceremony all the more exciting (please, no slaps this time). Without delay:

BEST PICTURE

I only saw the final of these nominees on Oscar eve (Women Talking)! What a lineup. From the moment I saw Everything Everywhere early last year - it certainly felt like a powerful, singular vision, a movie I had never really seen before. I would have never imagined it would "click" with Oscar voters in such a strong way and ultimately come into the ceremony as an almost certain lock for Best Picture. In fact, in terms of precursor wins, Everything Everywhere is running side by side with the likes of Schindler's List and American Beauty as 'that movie that basically won everything' leading up to tonight. In other years with close races, there was always a movie in second place primed for an upset (La La Land & Moonlight, Roma & Green Book, King's Speech & Social Network, etc). The thing that Everything Everywhere has going for it is the simple fact that no single movie has come up to challenge it as the next likely. It's won too much. Our likely runner-up could be All Quiet due to it's sweep of the BAFTA awards, but the film was not nominated for Director, Editing, or Acting. That's a kiss of death for a film seeking the highest prize. Even CODA last year was nominated for (and won) acting and writing trophies, not to mention its sweep of the guild awards (SAG, PGA, WGA...). Everything Everywhere won all those awards, too. Runners up seem to be All Quiet (if it can pull off a tech sweep of the below-the-line awards) or Banshees (if it can win a screenplay and acting prize - the other most likely movie to achieve this).

It's probably my favorite of the 10, but my personal opinions are split between Everything, Women Talking, and All Quiet. All 3 are some of the strongest Best Picture nominees I have seen in a while. The weaklings in the bunch (for me) are Fablemans and Avatar. But those are just personal opinions. They are unlikely to win for a myriad of reasons (even considering Fablemans won the Golden Globe). This is one of the easier categories to predict. 

1. Everything Everywhere All At Once
2. All Quiet on the Western Front
3. Banshees of Inisherin
4. Top Gun: Maverick
5. TAR
   
6. The Fableman's
   
7. Elvis
8. Women Talking
   
9. Triangle of Sadness 
10. Avatar: The Way of Water

 

BEST DIRECTOR

Again, it's a peculiar race in that the Daniels have cemented themselves so strongly as the front-runners. From Swiss Army Man (a movie about a rotting, farting corpse that can float) to this Oscar juggernaut - the film is nonetheless a "swing big" situation where the Academy wants to reward a film that takes lots of chances. Again, I don't even know who the runner-up would be here (Steven Spielberg won the Globe, but that movie has all but sputtered and died). I would guess Todd Field for his chilly work on TAR, but it would be very rare for a movie to only win Best Director and nothing else 2 years in a row (assuming Cate isn't our Best Actress winner). 

1. Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All At ONce
2. Todd Field, TAR
3. Steven Spielberg, The Fablemans
4. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
5. Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness

 

BEST ACTOR

A tough, TOUGH race. I feel like this is easily Austin Butler's to lose - he won the Golden Globe and BAFTA, which is usually a winning combo. Brendan Fraser won the Critic's Choice and SAG. His momentum is there, but I wonder if the movie with a Best Picture nomination will tip the scales towards Elvis. After all, he's playing a real person, and the Oscars love giving lead actors awards for that (Bohemian Rhapsody as the most recent example). I feel like Colin Farrell could be a total out of left field upset, but he didn't even manage to win the BAFTA in a very British-friendly film. I can't predict him to upset, but that win would be very much deserved and a pleasant twist to this close 2-way race. 

1.  Austin Butler, Elvis
2. Brendan Fraser, The Whale
3. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
4. Bill Nighy, Living
5. Paul Mescal, Aftersun

 

BEST ACTRESS

What a race! All year, it felt like Cate Blanchett was steamrolling to her third career Oscar. Her performance is good, but it's hard to deny Michelle Yeoh carried her film and made the most convincing case as to why voters need to branch out and continue to become more inclusive, especially in a category where in 95 years, only 1 woman of color has ever won. It's hard to imagine Michelle Yeoh losing - especially after building up momentum since her SAG win. If Cate wins it would feel like such a defeat - I can only imagine film twitter's reaction. The technical odds are still on for Lydia Tar here, but I can't believe any other outcome than perhaps a tie!

1. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All At Once
2. Cate Blanchett, TAR
3. Andrea Riseborough, To Leslie
4. Michelle Williams, The Fableman's
5. Ana de Armas, Blonde

 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

While it's not my favorite supporting performance of the year, the Ke Huy Quan sweep this year has been undeniable. He has a great narrative and it's the comeback story of the year. My vote would still probably be for Barry Keoghan, but this is locked up. 

1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All At Once
2. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
3. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
4. Judd Hirsch, The Fableman's 
5. Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway

 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

The most exciting race of the year. I partially hope it's the first category so the suspense can finally be suspended. At the same time, this could be the last award of the night for all I care! This is a real race. Angela Bassett led with early buzz (and did the thing) - winning the Golden Globe and Critic's Choice. Kerry Condon won the BAFTA. Jamie Lee Curtis (all of us) won the SAG in a huge upset. The last time the race was so evenly split was in 2007 when the Oscar winner (Tilda Swinton) prevailed with only a BAFTA win. This makes many people support Kerry Condon. It would certainly fit with recent trends. I can't deny, however, that Jamie Lee Curtis's upset at SAG shows big support for this aged star, and I think many people would want to see her give another wild speech. Her campaigning has been so solid all year. While it's one of my least favorite performances in the category (a sentiment shared by many) - and she's not even the best supporting actress in her own movie (!) I'm going to go ahead with this ranking. Bassett but have a better chance had she won a single award voted on by industry members (critics dont vote for Oscars) and a Marvel sequel doesn't seem like the type of movie Oscar voters are going to favor highly. Truly any of the top 4 could win. Even a Stephanie Hsu upset would be greatly deserved and not entirely surprising (especially given the love for this movie). It will be only the third movie to win 3 acting awards (the last time was Network in the 1970's). It's a crazy bet, but I'm invested in this outcome!

1. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All At Once
2. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
3. Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
4. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All At Once
5. Hong Chau, The Whale 
   

 

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

I want to predict Banshees - it was my favorite screenplay of these nominees, and it has precedent to win. In fact, it's won more precursors than Everything for it's screenplay. Still, I think if voters love Everything the way we have been led to believe, this feels like a safe win for it. More than Director or Editing, Best Picture winners really benefit from a screenplay win. I would say of Everything loses, it's chances of a Best Picture win aren't necessarily at risk, but it could set up a smaller victory haul than we initially thought (some people think Everything could win 8+ Oscars tonight. Unlikely, but that's our headspace going in!). 

1. Everything Everywhere All At Once
2. The Banshees of Inisherin
3. TAR
4. The Fableman's
5. Triangle of Sadness
   

 

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The inclusion of Top Gun here was an early trigger that made many think it could win the top prize. It's a weird nomination for that film, after all. The front runners are Women Talking and All Quiet. It's been a close race all year, but finally seeing Women Talking last night, I was struck by the absolute beauty of its writing - words that made a potentially boring topic so very cinematic and wondrous. I can't see how this is a close race at all, but with All Quiet raking in so many more nominations (againt Women's 2), many think that could prevail. I feel strongly that Sarah Polley will win a very deserved Oscar tonight. 

1. Women Talking
2. All Quiet on the Western Front
3. Living
4. Top Gun: Maverick
5. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

 

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY 

Top Gun was the clear front runner right up until its snub. Thank God, because the beauty in All Quiet is undeniable. It has some of the most haunting and stunning visuals of any movie this year. Elvis won the Guild Award - and its victory here would make it the first woman to win in this category. I can't believe any voters would watch both films and check Elvis, regardless of who shot it. 

1. All Quiet on the Western Front
2. Elvis
3. TAR
4. Bardo
   
5. Empire of Light

 

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE 

Marcel was my #2 movie of the year, so seeing it lose to cleanly to Pinocchio all year was a little sad. However, Guillermo del Toro's movie is a masterpiece in its own way. A fascinating study of grief and loss. This is ultimately an easy category to predict (but I wish it wasn't). 

1. Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio
2. Marcel the Shell With Shoes On
3. Puss In Boots
4. Turning Red
5. The Sea Beast

 

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE 

 

 The timely nature of the war in Ukraine seems to be spelling victory for the critically applauded Navalny. Fire of Love is sweet and would fit the bill, too, but Oscar voters have repeatedly proven that they aren't afraid to pick serious, intense films here over the sweeter option.

1. Navalny
2. Fire of Love
3. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
4. All That Breathes
5. A House Made of Splinters

 

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

It's nice seeing foreign films nominated in Best Picture so frequently now. They always win here if they are up for the main prize. This isn't even a race anymore. 

1. All Quiet on the Western Front
2. Argentina, 1985
3. EO
4. Close
5. The Quiet One

 

BEST FILM EDITING

What was once a close race between Top Gun and Everything seems to be more closely favoring Everything now. It has the most cuts, after all. Even when I first saw it, the editing was one of the main wonders of this film. I could see it really being a toss up here despite my preference for Everything. I'm not overthinking this. 

1. Everything Everywhere All At Once
2. Top Gun: Maverick
3. Elvis
4. The Banshees of Inisherin
5. TAR

 

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

I have zero clue here. All Quiet won BAFTA. Babylon won Golden Globe. Many think Babylon is the clear favorite (its the best, per fans of the movie), but it got so few nominations. Do voters even like it? Here's a scary statistic: every time a Best Picture winner has also been nominated for Score and Song, it ALWAYS wins at least 1 of those categories. Does this mean Everything has a better chance than we think? It certainly won't win Original Song (right?). I don't even know what to do!

1. All Quiet on the Western Front
2. Everything Everywhere All At Once
3. Babylon
4. The Fableman's
5. The Banshees of Inisherin
   

 

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

If you win the Globe and Critic's Choice (pretty much the only precursors for Original Song), you win the Oscar. I'm excited for RRR to take home gold on its only nomination. It was such an amazing film, I only wish it has received more love in other categories. 

1. Naatu Naatu, RRR
2. Hold My Hand, Top Gun: Maverick
3. Lift Me Up, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
4. This Is A Life, Everything Everywhere All At Once
5. Applause, Tell It Like A Woman

 

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN 

Another category where the Bablyon support is making me second guess. Again, no Best Picture nomination isn't doing it any favors. Here is a category where I solidly think the love voters have for Elvis will allow it to be rubberstamped in a couple of these categories. It's very close though, and an upset is entirely possible. 

1. Elvis
2. Babylon
3. All Quiet on the Western Front
4. Avatar: The Way of Water
5. The Fableman's

 

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Production design and costumes often go hand in hand, so I would advise if you pick Babylon here, pick it for production as well. Elvis (the same team that made Moulin Rouge!) received the exact same nominations in 2001 (except Actress in place of Actor) and it took home Production Design an Costumes that year. Catherine Martin (Baz Luhrman's wife) is set to be the most awarded Australian in history  - she does both costumes and production design for all his films. She also won both for Great Gatsby. Shes a juggernaut! 

1. Elvis
2. Babylon
3. Everything Everywhere All At Once
4. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
5. Mrs Harris Goes to Paris

 

BEST SOUND

Far too easy in my mind. Prove me wrong. 

1. Top Gun: Maverick
2. All Quiet on the Western Front
3. Elvis
4. Avatar: The Way of Water
5. The Batman

 

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

The lock of the evening. 

1. Avatar: The Way of Water
2. Top Gun: Maverick
3. All Quiet on the Western Front
4. The Batman
5. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
   

 

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

 

The Whale got early buzz for its convincing fat suit - but Elvis also had a fat suit (albeit Tom Hanks didn't look quite as convincing), AND a multitude of hair styles, AND sideburns, AND bouffants... This seems another prize for Elvis to take. 

1. Elvis
2. The Whale
3. The Batman
4. All Quiet on the Western Front
5. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever 

 

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM

I love and hate seeing the shorts every year, because my favorites rarely win - and my LEAST favorites often prevail. Coincidentally, the english language option often wins (maybe voters get too lazy reading so many subtitles) but that would also be my favorite of the bunch. Should I be worried?? Le Pupille is a curious and weird film that's about 15 minutes too long (but has the support of Academy darling Alfonso Cuaron). It also features many kids, a subject voters take kindly to here. The Red Suitcase, perhaps the best here, is also a contender despite it's small story and brief runtime. And last, Night Ride, a somewhat quirky but mostly lazy movie that feels pandering to transgendered people - feels just offensive and saccharine enough to take this prize without a second thought. I hope not!

1. An Irish Goodbye
2. Night Ride
   
3. Le Pupille
4. The Red Suitcase
5. Ivalu

 

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT FILM

Animals are a winning topic, right? Usually the film with the best title wins, but these are a lame bunch to choose from. Baby elephants feel like the perfect topic to award. 

1.  The Elephant Whisperers
2. The Martha Mitchell Effect
3. Stranger at the Gate
4. Haulout
5. How Do You Measure a Year

 

BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM 

 I wish I hadn't watched these, because the Boy and the Mole feels like the victor here. In reality, it's a campy laugh-riot full of Hallmark card dialogue and runs far too long. My audience turned against it so fast and we were laughing our way through this film. My favorite (and the opinion of everyone I've heard from) is that Ice Merchants is far away the best. It's so beautiful and wholly engrossing. My Year of Dicks is also so beautiful (and funny enough, both in content and title) that maybe it could pull out ahead. I'm going with my heart, and I'm fully expecting to lose here. 

1. Ice Merchants
2. The Boy, The Mole, The Fox and the Horse
3. My Year of Dicks
4. An Ostrich Told Me the World is Fake and I Think I Believe it 
5. The Flying Sailor

 

 

94th Oscar Predictions

 

This has felt like the longest Oscar season I can remember (though last year I seem to recall the Oscars happened in April). I'm ready to move on! The crop of 2021 movies was certainly more vast and rewarding than the year previous (Nomadland as the pinnacle of the movie year will always feel a bit off). Once again we have 10 Best Picture nominees (the first time since 2010), yet for the first time - the Oscars have decided to award 8 Oscars before the ceremony airs. Many categories are as wide open as I can remember, and I assume the prolonged season and shuffling of precursor awards & dates had a lot to do with it. Here we go:

 

 

 BEST PICTURE

I remember when it was almost unspeakable to imagine Argo winning without a Best Director nomination.  Now here we are with a front-runner missing virtually everything a film would need.

It's another David v Goliath situation (I remember Parasite v 1917, Roma v Green Book, Social Network v King's Speech, etc). It's all the more curious in that the "little indie movie that could" option (CODA) has run the race without key nominations in Best Editing AND Best Director or ANY below the line nominations- stats that even a few years ago would have spelled utter doom for a movie's Best Picture potential. In fact, I think it's been almost 90 years since a movie won the big prize without both nominations (Grand Hotel), and certainly no film in the modern era has won Best Picture while also being snubbed by the Director's Guild (DGA). 

CODA, though, seems to be the one movie that could be an exception to these rules. Why? The little Sundance premiere has had a steady run to the top all season. It took SAG in a beautiful moment with its largely deaf cast. It's an ultimate crowd-pleaser that has near universal appeal. Is it possible that a little movie set in a little New England town can be generally loved by voters and still have only received 3 nominations? Sure. Maybe it was #6 in editing, in original song, in actress... We will never know. Troy Kotsur is guaranteed a win, and it's screenplay (while not a formidable contender in comparison to Power of the Dog), it's still competitive. In the last 10 years, think of all the movies that won Best Picture with a screenplay and acting win? Moonlight, Green Book, 12 Years a Slave.... CODA fits right in. It also shocked some people (not me) by winning PGA - which uses the same preferential voting system as Best Picture at the Oscars. Not 100%, but still telling.

I absolutely prefer Power of the Dog for its mythic take on the west and its challenging and dangerous themes. The film is still a strong contender - and frankly having received a whopping 12 nominations and leading the pack - perhaps its power is still there afterall. It took DGA. It has 4 acting nominations. The 'controversy' surrounding this film has been weak and hatred for it seems to be among a small handful of homophobic elders. I think on paper, Power of the Dog is still technically the one to beat and has the better odds. This race feels most like The Departed v Little Miss Sunshine, the latter of which picked up PGA, SAG (but still got DGA in a somewhat depressing stat for CODA). The little indie that could versus the overdue director in a more serious film. Remember which one of those films won the big prize?

Belfast's chances have sunk month by month - I wouldn't even think of it as a threat anymore. The bigger upset chance might lie with King Richard, which has key nominations in acting, editing, and screenplay. We know it's going to win at least 1 award, too. The other films are so happy to just be nominated. I can't see a single other film outside the top 2 winning. I won't say it's impossible, but it's basically impossible. 

I'm reminded of 2019 when my 2 favorite movies of the year (Parasite & 1917) were the frontrunners for Best Picture. While my favorite movie of this year isn't nominated (Worst Person In The World), these top 2 are my favorites of the 10 nominees. I will be thrilled with either outcome - and if CODA wins, I will be even more elated to have all these "rules" and stats for what it takes to win an Oscar get thrown out the window. This makes the season all the more fun. Some people are rumbling that a CODA win would resemble an upset along the lines of Crash. That's all good and well, except for once, we would actually have a good movie winning.

1. CODA
   
2. The Power of the Dog
3. King Richard
   
4. Belfast
5. Dune
6. West Side Story
7. Licorice Pizza
8. Don't Look Up
9. Drive My Car
10. Nightmare Alley

BEST DIRECTOR

 

Lock it up. I'm not even rearranging the nominees out of the copy-and-paste order I found online. I'm so excited to have back-to-back women winning Best Director, and Campion has been long overdue since last time she faced off against Spielberg for her haunting "The Piano." Can't wait for her speech. Curiously, the film with the most nominations might sneak off with just this one trophy (the last film to win only Best Director was The Graduate in 1967...)

 

By the way, has anyone considered the fact that the two Best Picture frontrunners are directed by women? 

1. Jane Campion, "The Power of the Dog"
2. Kenneth Branagh, "Belfast"
3. Steven Spielberg, "West Side Story"
4. Paul Thomas Anderson, "Licorice Pizza"
5. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, "Drive My Car" 

 

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

 

I love LOVE the fact that for the second year in a row, we have a Best Actress race that is anything but predictable. Where last year there was not a SINGLE nominee who won more than a single of the precursors, here we at least have Chastain picking up both Critic's Choice and SAG (so deserved, by the way). Kidman was an early frontrunner for her role as Lucy by winning the Golden Globe, but her lack of momentum (I think) chalks up to the fact that the Golden Globes love Aaron Sorkin and... that's it. NONE of these nominees showed up at BAFTA where Joanna Scanlan snuck away with her trophy, and critics all season were only singing the praises of one nominee: Kristen Stewart (who was so lucky to get this nomination after so many snubs by the industry. Who wins? I don't know for sure, but I'm playing it safe and picking Jessica Chastain - if only because so many other categories are curiously not predictable. She plays a real woman, she is hidden under makeup, she sings, she runs the gamut of emotions. It's a wonderful performance that many will say is over the top. Momentum has shifted so many times, and I still feel strongly that the passion for Stewart could get her a shocker of an upset, despite her earlier losses. The nomination was the biggest challenge for her. It will be a photo finish.

** since writing, we have gotten a glimpse at the anonymous Oscar ballots (which certainly shouldn’t be used as predictors… we have barely 10 or 20 to go off of), and by a large margin Penelope Cruz has stormed the race. She is unchallenged against most of these women, and while I wouldn’t predict her, perhaps there’s more passion for her to get Oscar #2 than we thought.

1. Jessica Chastain, "The Eyes of Tammy Faye"
   
2. Penelope Cruz, "Parallel Mothers"
3. Kristen Stewart, "Spencer"
4. Nicole Kidman, "Being the Ricardos"
5. Olivia Colman, "The Lost Daughter"

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

I, for one, am thrilled for Will Smith to finally win. He's been so wonderful for so long and it's been easy to look him over as simply a movie star. His performance in King Richard is a great transformation that genuinely moved me and it my favorite of the bunch. Villains don't often win, and Benedict Cumberbatch - though possibly in a Best Picture winner - is going to be trailing Andrew Garfield for his heartfelt and musical performance. Had Tick Tick Boom got a Best Picture nomination (a snub, I tell you), I would argue he was more competitive. No matter. Smith won the Globe, Critic's Choice, SAG, BAFTA... He's going all the way.

1. Will Smith, "King Richard"
2. Andrew Garfield, "Tick, Tick... Boom"
   
3. Benedict Cumberbatch, "The Power of the Dog"
4. Denzel Washington, "The Tragedy of Macbeth"
5. Javier Bardem, "Being the Ricardos"

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

 

Lock this win up. 

1. Ariana DeBose, "West Side Story"
2. Kristen Dunst, "The Power of the Dog"
3. Aunjanue Ellis, "King Richard"
4. Jessie Buckley, "The Lost Daughter"
5. Judi Dench, "Belfast"

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

 

Lock this win up, too. Where Kodi was picking up steam with Critics and the Golden Globes, Kotsur has steamrolled through this season winning every award he needed. His speeches are wonderful, and he's going to be only the second deaf actor to win an Oscar (after his onscreen wife, Marlee Matlin). I'm excited for his speech the most. 

1. Troy Kotsur, "CODA"
2. Kodi Smit-McPhee, "The Power of the Dog"
3. Ciaran Hinds, "Belfast"
4. Jesse Plemons, "The Power of the Dog"
5. JK Simmons, "Being the Ricardos"

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

 

I'm going all in on this CODA train, and I still have to use logic that for a movie to win Best Picture, it needs to win 3 awards (Spotlight was the rare exception with 2). More so than Director, Best Screenplay has been a stronger predictor of whether a movie can win Best Picture or not. All the recent upsets won for writing (Green Book, Parasite, Moonlight, Spotlight, Crash...) If Power of the Dog wins, it will certainly be the most deserving (and Campion will have won an Oscar for both original and adapted works). It reminds of of the La La Land year when voters were able to see past the 'sweep' mentality and still give the Oscar to Manchester by the Ses, which was clearly the more writerly, accomplished script.... I hold out some hope for Dog. 

 

Still, CODA surprised at BAFTA with a screenplay win, and if voters are ready to crown it as the best of the year, why not make it a clean sweep and give it all 3 of its nominations? If CODA loses, I won't count out its chances to win Picture. It will just be all the more surprising. If it wins, CODA will be the first Best Picture winner since Return of the King to sweep the Oscars (though 3 versus 11 is quite a difference, of course...)

1.  CODA
2. The Power of the Dog
3. Drive My Car
4. The Lost Daughter
   
5. Dune

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

 

There's a lot of merit when considering which screenplay the Golden Globes choose to reward (though essentially excommunicated from this year's awards run). They have been spotty, but have called winners like Birdman and Green Book long before those films were considered to win the ultimate Oscar. This year, Belfast was their champion. Many people think that PTA would finally win after 11 nominations for Licorice Pizza, and while he was surprisingly defeated at the Writer's Guild (where Belfast wasn't even eligible, mind you) to Don't Look Up (a fluke, in my opinion), we have to only look back a few years to when The Favourite won WGA and still lost the Oscar to Green Book. 

 

Who wins? This seems like the only place to give Paul Thomas Anderson any love for Pizza, but the film ties for least-nominated among Best Picture nominees, and it's far from his best work. Belfast, which took Critic's Choice - seems like the safe bet. I am a heartbeat away from predicting Worst Person In The World, which anecdotally has the best writing of the bunch among those who have seen all 5 (per anonymous Oscar ballots, casual movie-goers, and film Twitter), but the last time I wanted to predict a non-Best Picture nominee, I fell flat on my face (First Reformed). 

 

I will reluctantly stick with Belfast, as a prize for Kenneth Branagh (who, with this nomination, becomes the person with the most nominations in different categories during his career... He's been nominated in 8 different categories). If Worst Person wins, I'll be annoyed that I wasn't brave enough to take that bet, but ultimately thrilled that the best movie won in the end. 

1. Belfast
2. The Worst Person In The World
   
3. Licorice Pizza
4. Don't Look Up
5. King Richard

BEST EDITING

 

The next 3 categories are certifiably some of the hardest to predict in all the years I've been watching the Oscars.

 

First up is this headache with Best Editing. What do we know about editing winners? They're often tied to the Sound categories (well... category). This bodes well for Dune & Power of the Dog. They're almost always Best Picture nominees (with the occasional Girl With The Dragon Tattoo thrown in). BAFTA has been right the last 2 years in a row (though this won't help us since they gave it to James Bond). In the last 10 years BAFTA has a 60% accuracy. Critics Choice has 50% accuracy - but they too went with the un-nominated West Side Story.  ACE Eddie (Editor's Guild) has an abysmal 40% accuracy this decade - and yet they picked King Richard.

Where does this leave us? I like the ties to Sound - the last 8 winners in a row won either Best Sound Editing or Mixing. We all know who's winning sound this year (*cough* Dune). You have to go all the way back to The Departed in 2006 to find a winner that received no sound nominations. That's a pretty strong run - granted sound did consolidate into 1 category last year. I still feel strongly about Power's changes, despite its glacial pace. Its chapters and very taught storytelling is quietly effective, and I could see it winning more than we expect. 

I still predict Dune, although I find its editing some of the weakest of the bunch. It's an action movie, it's visual effects heavy, its certainly showy. Why not? I'm close to switching to Power, but I'm holding out for more compelling upsets further down.

1. Dune
2. The Power of the Dog
3. Tick, Tick... Boom!
4. King Richard
5. Don't Look Up

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

 

What is even happening with this category? The first stat that leaps to mind is this category's tie to Visual Effects. 7 movies since 2009 have either won or been nominated for visual effects when winning this category - though in recent years they have gone for more traditional films. Only one film that won Critic's Choice & BAFTA went on to lose this category: last year's Nomadland. You know who won both this year? Dune. (It also JUST won the Cinematography guild to add to its roster).

There's buzz around Ari Wegner possibly becoming the first female winner for Power of the Dog. I certainly think her work is some of the best, and I prefer it to Dune. My question: where has it won? 

This is my Hail Mary moment - that West Side Story takes it. The first time I saw the film, I could not get Janusz Kaminski out of my mind. The shots and framings he created were jaw-dropping. There's a shot of Tony standing in a puddle that might be the best-photographed shot I've ever seen. He hasn't won since the 1990's. West Side Story has only grown in stature and buzz since releasing on streaming. I absolutely can see this film winning more than 1 award, and the one thing I keep hearing about this movie is "look at that shot.... Look at that." I fully expect Dune to be announced, but if I get this right, I just want to say I knew it from the beginning.

1. West Side Story
2. Dune
   
3. The Power of the Dog
4. The Tragedy of Macbeth
5. Nightmare Alley

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

 

And the last of the "what is happening" categories. Dune is favored to win. I almost want to predict it just so I don't lose on too many long-shots. It has won most of the Art Director's awards, and its only firm competition is Nightmare Alley, and this is where I am held up. 

 

The last 2 Guillermo del Toro movies have won in this category, and you certainly can't deny that the strength of Nightmare Alley is its visuals. From the circus community to the lavish upscale offices in the noir-inspired city, this is a good looking film. Personally, I favor Dune for it's dark hallways and gloomy interiors, but I can see this being one of those years where every Best Picture nominee (well, almost every one... sorry Licorice Pizza) walks away with at least one. Also, Dune's back half is almost entirely in the desert - and its showiest moments come at the very top. Alley continues to build and build. The safe bet is Dune, but I'm sensing upset #2.

1. Nightmare Alley
   
2. Dune
3. West Side Story
4. The Power of the Dog
5. The Tragedy of Macbeth

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

 

Ever since I saw Cruella drive off on the back of a garbage truck with a dress and a 50-foot long train, I knew this was a done deal. Dune is a close second for its detailed and surprisingly beautiful costumes which helped create an other-worldly feeling almost more than any other aspect. 

1. Cruella
2. Dune
3. West Side Story
4. Nightmare Alley
5. Cyrano

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

 

I think Tammy Faye was maybe the worst of these nominees, but I was convinced when BAFTA awarded it even though Chastain was not even nominated. It's weird, oftentimes fake-looking makeup that is caked on our actors like a mask - but it's been winning. Who am I to argue with that? Dune feels like it should be more of a front-runner, but besides Stellan Skarsgard's fat-suit, it's hard to find another character with a significant enough makeup transformation to justify a win here.  It's still a strong second. I doubt the Jared Leto transformation is enough to carry that whole film to victory. Cruella is... fine. Coming 2 America is another Norbit - a worthy nominee, but rarely do 'Nutty Professor' style nominees win.

1. The Eyes of Tammy Faye
   
2. Dune
3. House of Gucci
4. Cruella
5. Coming 2 America

BEST SOUND

 

Sound and editing have been in lock step for several years now - and even in nailbiter close calls like last year's Sound of Metal, what won sound ended up helping its win in editing. For this reason Dune is the likeliest of winners, and deservedly so. Power of the Dog's inclusion here was curious but very rewarding - and gives me hope that it could pull off a Best Editing upset. 

1. Dune
2. No Time To Die
3. West Side Story
4. Belfast
5. The Power of the Dog

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

 

Dune. Done. 

1. Dune
2. No Time to Die
3. Spider-Man: No Way Home
4. Free Guy
5. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

 

Dune. Done. It's criminal that Hans Zimmer's long-awaited second Oscar win will be filmed before the ceremony even takes place and spliced into the ceremony (time allowing). What a bafflingly-bad decision.

1. Dune
2. The Power of the Dog
3. Encanto
4. Don't Look Up
5. Parallel Mothers

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

 

I thought Lin Manuel Miranda would have been a lock - this is certainly the best song from Encanto (in my opinion), but yet again we have a James Bond theme that is sweeping, and Billie & Finneas seem like solidly-locked (albeit boring) frontrunners. I want to predict Encanto - but no one is picking Dos Oruguitas for awards. I suspect Miranda's time for EGOT is still coming soon. 

1.  "No Time to Die," No Time to Die
2. "Dos Oruguitas," Encanto
3. "Be Alive," King Richard
4. "Down to Joy," Belfast
5. "Somehow You Do," Somehow You Do

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

 

How I would love for an upset by Worst Person, but you don't bet against a film that gets Picture, Director, and Screenplay nominations. They never lose.  

1. Drive My Car
2. The Worst Person In The World
3. Flee
4. The Hand of God
5. Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

 

An amazing film is about to win the Oscar, and I can't wait. Summer of Soul's biggest hurdle was the nomination itself (front-runners are notoriously snubbed for even a nomination). Flee is great, but is not the best of these 5. 

1. Summer of Soul
2. Flee
3. Ascension
4. Attica
5. Writing With Fire

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

 

I can't believe Encanto, one of Disney's most bland, boring, generic movies is sweeping its way to the Oscar - especially over choices like Flee and Mitchells, but aside from the rare Mitchell's upset, Encanto seems determined to cross the finish line with all the might of Disney behind it. I don't love it, but sometimes this category and me have varying opinions of 'best of the year.'

1. Encanto
2. The Mitchells vs. the Machines
3. Flee
   
4. Luca
5. Raya and the Last Dragon

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

 

Many people are predicting Queen of Basketball to win, and with this category's history of winners with catchy titles (Period End of Sentence, Heaven is a Traffic Jam, Learning to Skateboard In A Warzone If You're A Girl, etc) and the general consensus - Queen of Basketball seems like a logical, if unresearched, guess. 

1.  The Queen of Basketball
2. Audible
3. Lead Me Home
4. Three Songs for Benazir
5. When We Were Bullies

BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT

 

By all accounts, the good will for Riz Ahmed might carry The Long Goodbye to a victory on Sunday night, and having not seen the nominees this year - I will allow general consensus to guide this victory. 

1. The Long Goodbye
2. Please Hold
3. The Dress
   
4. Ala Kachuu - Take and Run
5. On My Mind

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

 

Cute animals often (not always) help. Robin Robin has Netflix behind it, and the other 4 nominees are DOUR. Some of the darkest films of the year are hidden in this category. Robin stands out for that reason alone, but if there’s an upset, I suspect Bestia (about a woman’s dark visions while serving in a corrupt 1970’s Chilean government group which tortured individuals (its an animated film, let me remind you) might benefit for its short run time and haunting visuals. The folks who nominated these films were certainly feeling something that day…

1.  Robin Robin
2. Bestia
3. The Windshield Wiper
4. Boxballet
5. Affairs of the Art

John's Favorite Movies of 2021

Another hectic year of delayed releases, minimal trips to the cinema, streaming virtually everything... In another year I probably would have seen all the Oscar contenders by Christmas, now I am still struggling to see some of the Best Picture nominees (Drive My Car might have to wait for my 2022 list if it lives up to the hype). I find it curious how the pandemic has shifted my view of going to the movies. I feel less urgency to see new releases, I'm more highly critical of those movies I see. I will say that 2021 was leaps and bounds better than 2020 - both in terms of creativity and variety of storytelling. I posted a similar list on another social media profile - but now having a more well-rounded sense of what was released, here is my top 10 (only 2 months late)....

RUNNERS UP:

•  THE MITCHELLS V THE MACHINES
• THE FRENCH DISPATCH
• IN THE HEIGHTS
• KING RICHARD
• WEST SIDE STORY

10. THE RESCUE

Not the only documentary on this list. The follow-up from the makers of "Free Solo," here is a more intimate and dare I say thrilling story about the rescue of a group of boys trapped miles underground in a Thai cave, slowly filling with water. In terms of superhero movies, I don't think Marvel even holds a candle to the heroism on display by the rag-tag group of divers who came together to get these boys out. Unbelievable in every way. 

9. PIG

Absolutely not what I expected given the recent slate of Nicolas Cage's filmography. Where I expected a wild, twisted story ala 'Mandy,' here was a somber, beautiful story of loss, heartbreak, and passions. The story of a hermit who hunts for truffles with the help of his pet pig - what unfolds is a story of this man's past and what would lead him to a life of solitude in the West Coast mountains. Cage surprises in almost every scene he is in (particularly an unforgettable moment in a restaurant). His stub at the Academy Awards is (shockingly) disrespectful. 

8. THE GREEN KNIGHT

One of the last movies of the year I saw, hesitant to see it at first, but ultimately wowed by a broad production that produced one amazing set-piece after the other. Dev Patel continues to make interesting choices where he could otherwise be a romantic lead or star in A-list action movies. This is a movie of writing, development, and utter beauty. I can't go too much into plot, but just saying that it is a fantasy wonder should be enough. 

7. TICK, TICK... BOOM!

Up until December I genuinely thought this would end up as my #1 of the year. A stunning debut from Lin-Manuel Miranda about the life and times of Broadway composer Johnathan Larson. It's a remarkable musical and charismatic performance by Andrew Garfield, who should be taken seriously as a threat to win Best Actor despite the film's shortcomings. It's a play with in a play within a movie within a memory. It's so intricately assembled and yet so wonderful to follow on its journey. 

6. DON'T LOOK UP

I was disturbed by the lack of general praise this film received, as I thought it was a razor-sharp satire that again and again had me full of dread thinking "yup, this is what would happen." A commentary on global warming, on COVID, on conservatism. I love Adam McKay's ear for dialogue and razor sharp editing that is oftentimes shocking and so apparently rough around the edges. The film concludes on such a somber and beautiful note - if it wasn't so funny it might drive me to tears. I will go to my grave saying that Mark Rylance gives the year's absolute best performance as a tech guru from some psychedelic corner of Hell. 

5. CODA

It's a story I've seen a million times, and is as predictable as it is utterly charming. For one reason or another, this is a movie that works on almost all fronts. I can barely think of a flaw. A child of deaf adults (CODA) wants to go away to college, while her deaf family struggles to run a fishing business on the east coast. The cast is as good as any movie in many years. The ending is a whopper that simply draws tears from my eyes at the simple thought of it. Troy Kotsur will be an Oscar winner, mark my words, or the Oscars will lost much credibility. It's the feel-good movie of 2021. 

4. SUMMER OF SOUL

WOW WOW WOW. This is a movie not to miss - documentary or not. The insane footage of a predominantly black and Latino music festival in Manhattan - the same year as the moon landing - footage largely buried since distributors didn't have an interest in "Black Woodstock." This is a documentary to end all documentaries. Dynamite clips of some of the best musicians of all time. Questlove assembles this movie both with love and a curiosity about the times of this moment. MLK was just assassinated. The anger was palpable. Yet here, in a park, thousands of people gathered to join in a mass celebration of the power of music. 

3. MASS

This was my #1 movie of the year when I prematurely made my list on instagram. An insular story told largely in one room with 4 actors. The story of healing after a school shooting - where the parents of the perpetrator and one of the victims come together to talk, to argue, and to hopefully move on. It's the best cast of the year. Our female leads (Ann Dowd and Martha Plimpton) were robbed of Oscar wins, forget the nominations. You will not see a better-written movie this year, nor will you be more heartbroken by the end. There is a building tension that is resolved by one of the most cathartic moments between two characters - a simple embrace changes almost everything we have come to expect. Not to be missed. 

2. THE POWER OF THE DOG

I'm so excited to see Jane Campion finally win Best Director and Best Picture (I think her movie "The Piano" is one of the greatest movies ever made). This is a stunning western that defies all the rules, and it a dangerous assemblage of tension with scene after scene that is razor sharp and so beautifully crafted. What can be said that hasn't already been said? You watch this movie all the way through and immediately want to start it again. Not a moment is out of place. The writing is crisp and the cast is undeniable. With each rewatch I've found new gems (and I'm already up to viewing #4). Not for everyone, but certainly a movie that people need to see to understand the power that movies can have. 

1. THE WORST PERSON IN THE WORLD

If this isn't your favorite movie of the year I can't believe that you even love movies. In every way, this is a stunning achievement of writing, acting, storytelling, comedy, drama, and plot. It was in no way what I expected, and yet I left the theater realizing that this was exactly what I needed it to be. Like "Parasite" a few years ago, this movie runs the gamut of emotions from side-splitting humor to self-reflection to a deep and utter sadness that left me in a puddle. Renate Reinsve is a megastar. This is Amelie for 2021. I can't stress enough how much this movie has changed my life. Don't worry about the language barrier either - this is a story that will leave everyone thinking "how does this writer know so much about my life?" 

John's Favorite Movies of 2020 (only 4 months late)

It's been hard to see everything, and frankly I haven't sought out too many new releases in the last 12 months. I only finally saw the last of the Best Picture nominees last week. With Oscars around the corner, now feels like a good time to close the door on 2020 once and for all. I saw so few films that I was barely able to scrape together a top 10 list that I actually felt was good. Here we go: 

10. JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH

    Not so surprising that my list does include a generous sprinkling of Oscar nominees - Judas stood out to me as the best of this year's "historical/period" crop, including other choices like Trial of the Chicago 7 and One Night In Miami. 'Judas' stood out as leaps beyond the competition - a story of an FBI informant who infiltrates a Chicago-based chapter of the Black Panters, led by a charismatic Fred Hampton (Daniel Kaluuya is all but guaranteed an Oscar this year). The film is wonderfully styled and assembled, directed by Shaka King - this is a director to look out for. It carries on with an ever-present rising tension, culminating in a horrific yet sobering finale. 

9. PALM SPRINGS

    I was late to the "Palm Springs" party based on the film's premise - what I assumed was a lazy reworking of 'Groundhog's Day.' Hey, even with 'Happy Death Day,' this is quickly becoming a tired genre. What surprised me was the film's level of humanity - and its structure. The story begins far into Andy Samberg's repetitive cycle towards infinity, reliving the day of a wedding and reception... over and overr... and shows a new woman (Sarah) accidentally stumbling into the time loop by mere fluke. What follows is a comedy in which both leads are suffering through the realization that actions no longer have consequences, and any chance at romance is almost doomed from the start. There are still a few moments that leave me with questions (including the final post-credits scene), but in a way that helps me to wonder over it even more.  

8. BORAT SUBSEQUENT MOVIEFILM

    I genuinely laughed more than I expected at this surprise follow-up to the original Borat film (which I still found genuinely funny on rewatching), which takes a more pointed political stance and uses COVID-19 as a brilliant way to reintroduce this offensive character back into the zeitgeist of pop-culture. The real star is, of course, Maria Bakalova - a surprise Oscar nominee who plays Tutar, Borat's daughter. The plot revolves around using Tutar as an 'offering' to the Trump administration in order to win Borat favor with his homeland, and the cringe-worthy humor just flows from there. Bakalova and Cohen are perfect - and scene after scene was simply gold (Borat's visit to a synagogue, and Tutar's conversation with her babysitter, Jeanise). It's crude, offensive, and certainly not for everyone, but I loved every minute. 

7. THE FATHER

    One of the last movies I saw in 2020 (in fact, I saw it in March 2021, ha!) and was instantly one that became one of my most admired. The story of a man (Anthony Hopkins) and his daughter (Olivia Colman) and his struggle with dementia. The premise is laughably simple - but what director Florian Zeller achieves is remarkable. The film is essentially told from Hopkin's point-of-view, and everything from the position of a piano against the wall - to the actors playing each role - changes scene to scene. It's an immediately disorienting process as we, like Hopkins, struggle to keep up. Is his daughter moving to Paris? Has he lost his watch? This is something that I think is primed perfectly for the art of cinema - and I realize this was based on a play. The editing and set design works so wonderfully to create this sense of paranoia - but specifically Anthony Hopkins - who arguably has never been better. In fact, I can't think of a male actor who has given a better performance in the last 20 years or more. 

6. NOMADLAND

    I was certainly thrown off by this film's semingly plotless approach to the story - but was quickly engrossed in the journey of Fern (Frances McDormand), who loses her job and husband during the Recession and becomes a nomad - living out of her van, traveling across the American west in search of work here and there. The film shows us a year in her life - as she works for Amazon.com for the holiday season, then journeys east along with a caravan of fellow travelers (many of whom are non-actors). There is a Malick-like sense of awe within the setting of nature here (I know many have said this already), and the film's success comes from its wandering shots of sunsets over endless horizons. McDormand anchors this movie with a quiet yet convincing performance - and we believe her struggles along the way (the cost of a flat tire, or the struggle of sub-zero temperatures while trying to stay warm). Director Chloe Zhao has made better films in the past ("The Rider" is certainly one of the better films I've seen in the last few years), but for some reason, it is this movie that introduces her to a more mainstream audience. I certainly can't complain about that. 

5. THE INVISIBLE MAN

    The first movie I saw in 2020 that makes my year-end-list and it still manages to shock me with each reviewing. The retelling of this classic "monster movie" fits so well into a 2020 setting - that of a woman escaping her abusive boyfriend and ultimately coming to be stalked by him... Or is she going crazy? Elisabeth Moss is this year's 'snubbed actress in a horror movie,' following in the footsteps of Toni Collette and Lupita N'Yongo as powerhouse actors who failed to get Oscar-nominated simply due to the genre of their work. This film is wrought with tension, and some of the most effective visual effects of the year. The icing on the cake is the film's final scene - a moment of such satisfaction that I remember audiences cheering as the film cut to black. Across the board - this film never missed. 

4. SOUND OF METAL

    Very close to being my favorite movie of the year. The story of a heavy metal drummer (Riz Ahmed) who suddenly begins to lose his hearing. The film follows his retreat to a rehab shelter for the deaf (Ruben, our drummer, is also a recovering drug addict). At the shelter, he is introduced to the deaf community - learns to sign, meets members of the deaf community, etc, all the while he researches cochlear implants in hopes to return to normal and begin drumming again. Paul Raci, the rehab leader, is unforgettable in a brief but tender performance, and of course Riz Ahmed is vying among the year's very best. The film's successes (they are countless) are crowned by a sound design that works to hear the world through Ruben's perspective - both after becoming deaf and after regaining his hearing. It's marvelous work. I felt so immersed in every moment. I almost never wanted this film to end. 

3. MINARI

    If I were voting for Best Picture this year, my choice would be solidly for "Minari." An American movie (no, Golden Globes, this isn't an international production) with largely Korean dialogue - this is the story of an immigrant family from South Korea who makes their way to the American midwest in the 1980's. The father (Steven Yeun) dreams of growing a large farm and cultivating the land. he inspires his young son to dream big. His wife (Han Ye-ri, criminally snubbed this season for her brilliant work) is more grounded - struggles to see life in their new home in the middle of nowhere. Their marriage is tested. She invites her mother to make the journey to America as well, (Youn Yuh-jung) a whipsmart grandma who brings with her a sense of life to this humble scenery - and brings a supply of minari, a native plant to Korea which ultimately begins to thrives in a nearby creek. From its soundtrack to its writing (director Lee Isaac Chung tells a story loosely based on his childhood upbringing), this is so clearly the choice for Best Picture among this year's slate - and a perfect way to end a year so full of loss and doubt.  

2. QUO VADIS, AIDA?

    The very last movie I saw before assembling this list, and probably the most important of my picks. This is a Bosnian film that recounts a 1995 genocide committed by opposing army forces of Bosnian men and boys numbering in the thousands. Uplifting, I know. This is a film is bleak struggle and yet surprising humanity. We follow a UN translator (Jasna Đuričić - who very much should have been nominated for and won the Best Actress Oscar this year. Her performance is manic, frazzled, always moving forward - using her leverage as translator in an attempts to protect her husband and two boys from the oncoming terror. The film is largely set in real time in a UN base which holds tens of thousands of refugees with nowhere to go. I am not familiar with the Bosnian War, per se, and I was not aware of what was coming - but through Aida - I felt the ever present sense of doom, and watched the final act through an onslaught of tears. This is a film unlike any other - and I encourage as many people as possible to watch it. Very few movies have left me as completely undone. 

1. PORTRAIT OF A LADY ON FIRE

    Ok so it's cheating to say a 2019 movie is the best movie of 2020. In my defense - "Portrait" was not released in the United States until at least January or February 2020 and by that point I had already compiled my list. Criminally snubbed at the Oscars (not even nominated for Foreign Film), this film suffered a from a weird release schedule and the dominance of another foreign film (Parasite) taking away all this film's thunder. 

The moment I saw this masterpiece, I knew that I would keep it in this position until I saw another film better. 15 months later and I have yet to see anything that tops it. A lush, romantic, stunning, raw portrait of love that is told in such striking beautiful ways. The film's ending - a series of 3 or 4 scenes, builds to one of the most powerful crescendos... It's a perfect film.