Official Oscar Nomination Predictions

In less than 48 hours, we will officially know the nominees for the 84th Academy Awards. Thus far, the field has remained wide open in several fields. Some films seemed locked in many categories as of now (The Artist, anyone?) but others present Academy voters with difficult choices - narrowing down a field of dozens of nominees to just 5.

Based on the various awards presented thus far in the season, here are MoJo's official predictions for the nominees. See how we do come Tuesday morning!



BEST PICTURE
The Artist
The Descendants
The Help
War Horse
Moneyball
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo

This year the Academy has shortened the required nominees - it can be a field anywhere from 5 to 10 nominees, depending on how high they are placed in the voting. 'The Tree of Life' has taken a nose dive in the past month and 'Midnight In Paris' has exploded on the awards circuit. There seems like a possibility of a 'War Horse' or 'Moneyball' snub in place of 'Drive' or 'The Ides of March' - watch out for potential spoilers!


BEST DIRECTOR
Hugo (Martin Scorsese)
The Artist (Michel Hazanavicius)
The Descendants (Alexander Payne)
Midnight in Paris (Woody Allen)
The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo (David Fincher)

Following suite, it seems like Steven Speilberg could face a potential snub come Tuesday morning in place of a consecutive David Fincher nomination. These are the nominees for the DGA, the most accurate determinant of the Academy Awards. For now, these seem like the safe bet. Could Terrence Malick sneak in? We doubt it at this point.


BEST ACTOR
Brad Pitt-Moneyball
George Clooney-The Descendants
Jean Dujardin-The Artist
Michael Fassbender-Shame
Leonardo DiCaprio-J Edgar

The most vulnerable actor is DiCaprio - starring in a critically-panned film that has all but been forgotten. His snub could become a reality to be replaced by Michael Shannon in 'Take Shelter' or Ryan Gosling in either 'Drive' or 'The Ides of March.' Don't be surprised.


BEST ACTRESS
Meryl Streep-The Iron Lady
Viola Davis-The Help
Glenn Close-Albert Nobbs
Tilda Swinton-We Need To Talk About Kevin
Michelle Williams-My Week With Marilyn

This may be the most established category of the year - as each of these five women have consecutively appeared on best actress lists from various awards. Glenn Close may be the most vulnerable, but don't bet against her. There are really no other women who stand a chance at a nomination aside from Rooney Mara or perhaps Kristin Dunst for 'Melancholia.'


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Christopher Plummer-Beginners
Albert Brooks-Drive
Nick Nolte-Warrior
Kenneth Branagh-My Week With Marilyn
Jonah Hill-Moneyball

Another category where all the nominees seem essentially locked. Armie Hammer could sneak in in place of Jonah Hill, but considering the ratings of each film, Moneyball is the more likely choice. Viggo Mortensen for 'A Dangerous Method' seems like a long shot but the next safest bet.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Octavia Spencer-The Help
Jessica Chastain-The Help
Bernice Bejo-The Artist
Janet McTeer-Albert Nobbs
Shailene Woodley-The Descendants

This is a 6 person field with only 5 slots. Can Melissa McCarthy score a nomination for 'Bridesmaids?' I would like to say no, but if the Academy chooses her, be prepared for Woodley to be pushed aside.


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Artist
Midnight in Paris
Bridesmaids
Tree of Life
50/50

'Young Adult' or 'Beginners' could squeeze in, but this seems like a safe bet. Is 'Bridesmaids' really a worthy screenplay? Perhaps, perhaps not. Either way, this seems like the safest category for the Academy to reward the film (if they see fit).


BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Moneyball
The Descendants
Hugo
The Help
The Ides of March

This is a wide open field with room for 'War Horse,' 'The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo,' 'Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy,' etc. If the Academy loves George Clooney as much as is to be believed, expect him to score a Screenplay nomination for 'Ides' to go with Best Actor.


CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Tree of Life
War Horse
Hugo
The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo
The Artist

'Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy' received a Cinematography Guild nomination, so theoretically it stands a better chance than say, 'War Horse.' 'Moneyball' could also pop up, or 'Harry Potter' if the Academy decides to do some rewarding. Either way, 'The Tree of Life' is almost guaranteed the win, so the nominations could go into more obscure places ('Drive' or 'My Week With Marilyn?').


ART DIRECTION
The Artist
Hugo
The Tree of Life
Harry Potter 7 Pt II
War Horse

Possible upsets: 'Jane Eyre,' 'Anonymous,' or 'Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy'


COSTUME DESIGN
Hugo
Jane Eyre
The Help
The Artist
My Week With Marilyn

'Anonymous' or 'W.E.' could pop up here, but as of now all fields are covered with these 5 nominees: period pieces, biopics, fantasy, old Hollywood.


EDITING
The Artist
The Descendants
War Horse
Hugo
Moneyball

'The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo' would be the next safe bet, but these should be the 5 that are announced, give or take 'Moneyball' for 'The Tree of Life.'


MAKEUP
The Iron Lady
Hugo
Harry Potter 7 Pt II


Assuming there are only 3 nominees, those seem like the most likely choices, with 'Iron Lady' the seeming frontrunner. As of now, there are only 7 possibilities, as the Academy narrows down the field to 7. The other 4 are: 'Albert Nobbs,' 'The Artist,' 'Anonymous,' & 'Gainsbourg.' If 'The Artist' is going to be the big winner everyone says, then it will most likely replace 'Hugo.'


ORIGINAL SCORE
The Artist
The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo
War Horse
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Hugo

'The Artist' is the only lock, so theoretically 'The Help' or 'The Tree of Life' could score nominations for Thomas Newman and Alexandre Desplat, respectively. Both men are disastrously overdue for an Oscar, but their waits will most likely continue. 'Moneyball' could also prove to be the dark horse.


VISUAL EFFECTS
Harry Potter 7 Pt II
Rise of Planet of the Apes
The Tree of Life
Hugo
Super 8

'Super 8' may be a long shot, but this could be the perfect place to honor that amazing film from the first half of the year.


BEST SOUND MIXING
Hugo
Transformers: Dark Side of the Moon
Super 8
War Horse
Mission Impossible: Ghost Protocol

Possible spoilers: 'The Adventures of Tintin,' 'Pirates of the Caribbean 4,' or 'The Artist' in a long shot.


BEST SOUND EDITING
Super 8
Hugo
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
The Adventures of Tintin
Mission Impossible - Ghost Protocol

Honestly the sound categories could go in almost any direction.


BEST DOCUMENTARY
Project Nim
Bill Cunningham, New York
Hell and Back Again
Paradise Lost 3
Pina

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
A Separation
In Darkness
Mondieur Lazhar
Pina
Footnote

Narrowed down from a shortlist of 9 announced by the Academy

The Artist (Mo***** Jo*****)

Mo said:
As a sucker for old movies and classic filmmaking, I was always interested in seeing the modern-day black-and-white silent film The Artist. I was intrigued by the unique vision and risky filmmaking, but also skeptical that the premise of the film was merely gimmick meant to attract viewers, without substantial story to back it up. I was extremely pleased to find not only that the story was riveting and the characters well-developed, but the old-fashioned method of storytelling was appropriate and added immensely to the film’s overall experience.

The film chronicles a “riches-to-rags” story of famous silent-film actor and “artist” George Valentin. Without giving away too many spoilers, you can imagine what happens to Valentin’s wildly successful career as events such as the onset of talking-voice films and the Great Depression occur. An aspiring actress named Peppy Miller meets Valentin early on and is enamored of him and his success. Thanks to a helping hand from Valentin, Peppy is able to pursue her own career as an actress. The two keep bumping into each other throughout the film in a variety of different dramatic and comical situations, and their relationship evolves and changes beautifully. From the highest of highs to the lowest of lows and everything in between, Valentin’s struggles, triumphs, relationships, and emotions are displayed to wonderful and dramatic effect.

The silent nature of the film makes visual acting of the utmost importance. Relative unknown Jean Dujardin plays Valentin, and is one of the most charismatic and easy to watch actors I have ever seen. After seeing how natural he is in this role, it is hard to believe that he isn’t actually a silent film actor. The talented Bérénice Bejo is the beautiful Peppy Miller; she provides tangible chemistry with Dujardin and perfectly develops the equally compelling character of Peppy.

If anything, the silent-film style added to the story and overall experience; it is hard to imagine it presented in any other way. Throughout the film, there are a few different “camera look”-type moments that happen among the characters where they seem to be aware, if even for a split second, they are in a silent film. For me, this completely removed any element of gimmick from the silent-film media and added yet another level of cleverness and wit.

I literally have almost no complaints whatsoever about The Artist as a film. The acting was insurmountable, the music superb, the filming astounding, and the screenplay magnificent. I laughed, I cried, I hoped, I despaired... right along with Valentin and Peppy. As far as I’m concerned, director Michel Hazanavicius has outdone himself and won the lottery on a risky gamble. It is a possibility that the Academy may see The Artist as too risky or too different, but it seems unlikely based on reviews and buzz about the film. The tried-and-true storyline may also be a limiting factor, but it is presented in such a unique way I can hardly see that happening, either. The best film I have seen this year and I would be thrilled and unsurprised to see it win multiple awards, including Best Picture, at the Academy Awards in 2012.

Jo said:
Opening with an impressive recreation of a silent film and the stars watching from backstage, the sudden eruption of the audience at the film's conclusion in utter silence is perhaps the most memorable cinematic moment I have had all year. The Artist is a movie that is an experiment in time: a test as to whether or not a film could still be told through actions as opposed to words, and whether such a story would still hold up with audiences. The answer seems to be a resounding yes, that movies remain a visual art first and foremost. That it can rise to be one of the best films of the year is a testament to the writing. director, and most of all the actors, whose faces are the sole means of communication.

There seems to be little more to say after Mo's reaction to the film. I began the viewing experience with hesitation - doubting whether or not this film would be faithful to the traditional silent movies as well as bring something new to the table, and I am amazed and delighted to say that this little French film pulls it off almost miraculously. The story, a basic love story a la Singin' In The Rain follows the rise of 'talkies' in Hollywood and the demise of a once-famous star. His adamancy against talking movies is not justified until the final moments of the film in a spectacular and subtle 'ah-ha!' moment. This is not a film that takes itself seriously, but rather celebrates cinema and all the idiosyncrasies that go along with it.

Yes praise should be showered upon the two leads, whose charisma leaks through the screen in an intoxicating bout of charm, but the star of the film has to be Uggie the dog. In perhaps what is the best animal performance I have seen in a movie, the dog steals the show time and again, preciously and heroically accompanying the protagonist through thick and thin, saving the day more than once.

If I had any problems with the film, it would be the simplicity of the narrative, but I catch myself and remember that this is an homage to the 1920's - a time when life is perceived to have been simpler. Movies back then didn't have such a heavy preoccupation on death or disease or war, but of the joyous celebrations of life and music. What more could you possibly want in a film?

(Awards potential: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor (Dujardin), Best Supporting Actress (Bejo), Best Original Screenplay, Best Cinematography, Best Costume Design, Best Editing, Best Art Direction, Best Original Score)

The Descendants (****1/2)

I had heard much about The Descendants prior to seeing it, some reviews stellar and some complete garbage. Nonetheless, I went into the film knowing very little and came out with a new appreciation for George Clooney as an actor as well as Alexander Payne as a filmmaker. You will notice I did not give this film a perfect score. My few faults I had with it are significant but yet did not work against the film as a whole. It's oftentimes comedic, fun, dramatic, and even heartbreaking, and on the whole Payne's work is surprisingly brilliant.

The film follows Matt King, played by George Clooney, who is faced with two grave issues. On one hand, his wife has slipped into an irreversible coma after a boating accident and must come to terms with his family and the state it is in. On the other, he and his extended family are about to sell a large portion of Hawaiian land they have owned for over 100 years - for potentially hundreds of millions of dollars. That these two events happen simultaneously seems to be the central drama of the film. Life is constantly giving and taking away.

King gets time to spend with his two daughters, both of them swearing, rebellious, and generally difficult to communicate with. Throw in the discovery of his comatose wife having had an affair and it is safe to say his life is pretty much miserable. The film plots his dealings with these situations, meeting with his family, and tracking down the man his wife had relations with.

Overall Alexander Payne delivers consistent directorial efforts and his work has yet to diminish. From Election to About Schmidt, Payne's attention to human drama and inner torments make his films some of the most fascinating and 'real' to be released. Much criticism seems to be aimed at the film's reliance on voiceover in the beginning. I would argue against this, as I found the narration completely fitting with the story and definitely necessary to set up the plot right away.

The film is wholly dependent on the cast, and it does not falter. The appeal of George Clooney as a serious actor is something I have issues with, as I generally interpret him to play the same part in every film. Here, I believed him. Here is a man coming to terms with his own mortality, and it is a surprisingly believable and sad delivery. His oldest daughter, played by Shailene Woodley, is brilliantly acted and brings a great spark to the film, and the performance given by Judy Greer is absolutely perfect in its brief moments.

My faults with the film may be the small aspects of the film. The oldest daughter, Alex, brings her friend Sid around on their journeys throughout the story, though his presence is never explained nor given attention. His 'dumb' personality also lends itself to some of the film's more awkward moments where the humor doesn't quite work as it clashes with the tragedy of the story. Many scenes also seem to build on top of one another with a lack of narrative flow between them. Individual moments are absolutely breathtaking, like Alex releasing her anguish underwater in a pool, or the youngest daughter being told tragic news in complete silence. These scenes are perhaps better than the film as a whole, but don't jump out from within a bad movie (ie. Crash and it's many beautiful scenes).

Might I also shout praises for the final shot of the film, perhaps one of the most perfect and brilliant final shots of any film I can remember. We see the family, sitting on the couch, watching the TV off screen and sharing a blanket and ice cream. We can hear that they are watching March of the Penguins, though they are essentially watching us, the audience. This staring match between reality and fiction as the credits role also forces us to examine our own lives. That we were able to sit in and examine this family's tragedy for 2 hours, only to end the film with the same characters staring back at us forced me to analyze my own life and created a moment of strong self-reflection. This is filmmaking at its greatest and though it was definitely a small moment in the film, it is one that I will not soon forget.

My greatest praise goes to the film's soundtrack. Compiled of traditional Hawaiian music comprised solely of guitar and vocals, they provide a perfect contrast to the tone of the film and were stunning additions to reinforce the fact that this story takes place in a unique setting with its own rich history and traditions.

The Descendants is not a perfect film, but it is easy to see why many people think otherwise. Payne's screenplay and direction are top-notch, as is the cast he has formed. The film is being billed as a 'dramedy,' but I think this is simply an examination of one family's life and all the happiness and sadness that goes on within it. Life cannot and should not be narrowed down to one genre, and that's exactly what this film succeeds in proving.

(Awards potential: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor (Clooney), Best Supporting Actress (Woodley, Greer), Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Editing)

We Need To Talk About Kevin (****1/2)

We Need To Talk About Kevin is a disturbing, harsh, and terrifying look into the life of a mother who's son went on a killing spree at his high school. Told through a non-linear narration with flashbacks to her former life, Eva the mother comes to see her life as something that may or may not have been all in vein.

There is no definite plot to this film, other than to trace the roots of evil. From the beginning, Eva finds Kevin to be a challenge. He wears diapers late into his toddler years, constantly fights, is unresponsive, and yet loves his father unconditionally. In one of the most powerful moments, Eva is able to find peace in the silence standing next to a construction worker pounding away with a jackhammer. For the briefest moment, she can forget the life she lives and escape into her memories.

I would consider Tilda Swinton to be perhaps the second greatest actor alive (after Meryl Streep, of course) and here her acting is truly brilliant. Having missed a nomination last year for her unbelievable performance in I Am Love, she stands a good chance at scoring her second Oscar nomination since her nomination and win back in 2007. Tilda manages to portray a woman we greatly sympathize with yet can never truly understand what goes on inside her head, much in the same way she is shut out from understanding Kevin. Kevin, played by a ghostly Ezra Miller, is a flat, lifeless character. His actions throughout the film all come to foreshadow the ultimate ending, but Miller manages to make it something memorable.

Many will undoubtedly be put off by the grim subject matter and understandably so. The film ends not with resolution but further confusion and annoyance. What will happen to Eva now - shut out from her job, friends, home, town? Elephant was another film made dealing with a high school shooting, and it is interesting to see how each functions. Elephant works to understand the single moment. Kevin seeks to understand everything else.

(Awards potential: Best Actress (Swinton), Best Supporting Actor (Miller), Best Adapted Screenplay)

My Week With Marilyn (****)

All preconceptions one may have about My Week With Marilyn are proved to be drastically wrong. This is not a film about the life of Marilyn Monroe, this is a film about the making of a film and one man's love of cinema. This has proven to be an interesting year for movies about movies, with Hugo and The Artist both providing more insight into the birth and origins of what we now see as 'films.' Whittled from the story come two of the best performances of the year, from Oscar nominees Michelle Williams and Kenneth Branagh, respectively.

As already stated, the film follows a man named Colin, an eager and well-brought up young man who idolizes the cinema and will do anything to get a job working on a film. He lands the role of '3rd Assistant Director' on Sir Laurence Olivier's production of The Prince and the Showgirl, bringing to Britain the biggest star in the world: Marilyn Monroe. Though she is seen as the greatest sex icon of the time, it is her fragility in front of the camera and fear of failure that helps bring her to a more human level, a level where both Marilyn and Colin find room to bond and form an unlikely relationship.

The beginning titles remind audiences that this film is based on memoirs and is, in fact, a true story. Nevertheless, I couldn't help but find the plot almost unbelievable at times. How much of this film is factual and how much is the fantasies of a young, idealized man in his 20's?

Despite the small flaws, the acting is sensational. Michelle Williams is at her career-best and is guaranteed an Oscar nomination for her devastating performance. At times her uncanny portrayal of Marilyn is indistinguishable from the real footage, but never does it feel like an overly-rehearsed or researched performance. Her acting is a beautiful and delicate process, shedding new light on the Marilyn we have all come to believe we know. The same can be said for Kenneth Branagh, who's flashy performance of Sir Laurence Olivier is perhaps the best in the whole film. He gives the film a spark of drama and lends insight into the world of filmmaking while never overshadowing his other actors. A Supporting Actor nomination could and should be on the way.

The film itself it top quality, with lush photography and an emotional score to back it up. The film is definitely not a masterpiece, nor is it something that I believe is guaranteed to win Williams her first Oscar. The film is, however, one of the most poignant and unique love stories of the year. Definitely not a film that should be missed.

(Awards potential: Best Actress (Williams), Best Supporting Actor (Branagh), Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Cinematography, Best Original Score, Best Costume Design, Best Art Direction)