John's Favorite Movies of All Time

With COVID-19, impending doom, self-quarantine, and a busy schedule filling my waking days (don't forget I'm a full-time nurse), my movie-going year has been lackluster. In fact, where last year at this time I had already seen perhaps 15 movies in theaters, so far in 2020 I have seen just two (albeit both incredibly beautiful and feminist films: "Portrait of a Lady on Fire," and "Invisible Man," reviews to come soon... hopefully). The past few months have instead been an introspective look. Rewatching old movies, seeking out those films I had missed in years past, and realizing what draws me to see movies in the first place. 

In the midst of all this global chaos, I feel it's as good a time as any to reflect on "John" and tell you what movies really mean to me. I can think of no better exercise than to put forward a top-ten list of my favorite movies of all time... At this present moment. There is no way I could rank these #1 - #10, nor could I rationalize why some films made the list in lieu of others ("1917" just last year, for instance, is one of the most stunning films I have ever seen, and I think about it often). Maybe I'll remake this list in a couple years and see what's on top. Some I have rewatched in the past few weeks. Some I haven't seen in years. All are still vivid in my mind. All are unique. Here we go (in alphabetical order): 

2001: A SPACE ODYSSEY (1969) 

In theaters, I don't know if I've seen any other movie as frequently (odd, considering it's 50 years old). The mystery and spectacle of Stanley Kubrick's masterpiece is in its absolute coldness and gradual progression. Scenes slowly march along. We wonder if there's even a plot? Still, there is not a moment out of place. There's not a moment of levity (as far as I can remember). 2001 stands apart as a movie so wholly supported by its technical achievements, it's stunning visuals, and it's ambiguous ending. With each new viewing I find another aspect to marvel at. I know just as many people would find it unwatchable.  HAL 9000 is certainly one of the most cold villains in movie history. The soundtrack of accompanying Richard Strauss waltzes is virtually at the point of parody now. Nevertheless, Kubrick has created something that stands the test of time, and even now, it's an enthralling piece of cinema. 

AMADEUS (1984) 

Amadeus was what I often said my favorite movie was throughout high school and college. It certainly has everything going for it. Milos Foreman (of "One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest" fame) has an implausible and zany comedy drama here: a fictional retelling of a feud between composers Salieri and Mozart ("Wolfgang... Amadeus Mozart"). How much is fictional? I would assume the majority, right down to a plethora of American accents and modern vocabulary. Still, the film strikes at something so pure - the envious nature of jealousy, the battle between man and God, creation, and destruction... The film rightly won Best Picture in 1985, and it's so clear why. The film's finale is an extended sequence of Mozart in bed dictating music to an eager (and destructive) Salieri. It's one of my all-time favorite scenes in any movie. There's no action, there's no clever dialogue... It's two men, diametrically opposed, working together to create something above each of them. It's a faultless movie.  

AMELIE (2001) 

If I had to pick a movie of these ten that I would say is #1, I might think it's this 2001 romantic comedy / fairy tale / visual poem. I don't think I've yet seen a movie so luxurious to look at and absolutely marvelous to watch on a sad lonely night. It's a cinematic dream - a collection of "how did they film that?" shots that encompass the life of a young French woman on her search for love and an ambition to fix the lives of those around her. It's so funny, it's romantic, and full of an array of music and sound. How fitting, then, that the film's climax - a kiss - occurs in virtual silence (all the while a bored cat watches from across the room). When I think of movie magic, AMELIE is what comes to mind. 

FANTASIA (1940) 

Weird right? While the rest of the world has been jumping on the Disney+ bandwagon, seeing the latest Frozen movie, talking about their excitement over the remake of Mulan and Lion King (gag), Fantasia has always stood apart for me as a singular vision of art and creativity from a studio that so clearly prides itself on commercialism and traditional structure. I've seen the movie countless times. Maybe the first time I saw it, I was thrilled by the moving colors and lack of plot. Now, seeing it for the enth-time, I marvel at the visual language of the structure, the music composition, the increasingly-complex stories, and the haunting ending that certainly does not have the "Disney" satisfaction. How marvelous that a film studio had the audacity to create something so singular in a time when filmmaking was still in its relative prime (Gone With The Wind has just been released the previous year). A movie doesn't have to have a plot to work on an emotional level. Likewise, it does not need major Hollywood stars to act out what emotions we should feel. In that sense, Fantasia is a movie so singular that I can't think of anything in film memory that even comes close to its ambition. 

THE GOOD, THE BAD, AND THE UGLY (1966) 

It was my dad that got me into Westerns, but I hadn't really considered the difference between the traditional works by the likes of John Ford to the more edgy "spaghetti westerns" until years later. Still, I find Sergio Leone's epic the most accessible (and the most comic). What is ultimately a simple story of a search for buried gold becomes something so much more grand in scale by the simple addition of powerhouse actors like Clint Eastwood and Eli Wallach. The soundtrack is something everyone knows, even if they haven't seen the movie (I guarantee it). Ennio Morricone's score is cinematic in a way no other composer has yet achieved. The film's conclusion at Sad Hill Cemetery is one of the all-time greatest showdowns in film history. Hell, it's the best. It's an overall masterpiece of setting, tone, and character. 

NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN (2007) 

Many might say Joel & Ethan Coen's best film is 1996's "Fargo," but their Best Picture-winning thriller from 2007 is absolutely one of the all time best movies I've ever seen. I first saw it in theaters with my dad and we both had tepid responses to the quiet, slow pace and depressing ending. Each consecutive viewing has confirmed in me that this is one of the greatest movies ever made. An air-tight story of three men (Josh Brolin as the "hero," Javier Bardem as evil incarnate, and Tommy Lee Jones as the old sheriff) who never share a scene together and each of whom face a climax that they never expected. Based on the Cormac McCarthy novel (and I read it), the Coen-esque humor finds a place here in an otherwise graphic and heady drama that weaves in and out of the "cat and mouse" genre. Tommy Lee Jones is especially good as the film's moral center. I promise, there is not a flaw to be found. 

ORDINARY PEOPLE (1980) 

I'm sure many people haven't seen this movie, and instead might know it as 'the film that beat Raging Bull for Best Picture.' I promise, this is a special movie. It's Robert Redford's debut as a director, and what a stunning debut it is. It's a family drama about a mother, father, and son dealing with the death of a family member told in stunning realism. Mary Tyler Moore's icy mother is a highlight, one of my all-time favorite performances on film (she sadly lost an Oscar to, well, let's not go there). Redford finds a clever way to employ flashbacks to add shading to his characters, and our hero named Conrad (the son - Timothy Hutton- in an Oscar-winning performance) finds solace in a newly-found psychiatrist. It's one of the saddest movies I've ever seen, and the final scene between father and son always finds a new way to rip my heart in two. I can't encourage enough people to see this movie. 

PARASITE (2019) 

I know the movie is less than a year old, but I've seen it possibly 7 or 8 times now, and I can't think of a better description than "air tight." Director Bong Joon-Ho made objectively the best movie of 2019. It's a black comedy, it's a thriller, has elements of horror, is utterly heartbreaking, and endlessly watchable. How thrilled I was to see it become the first foreign film to win Best Picture, all the more exciting for knowing that the film will stand the test of time. It's a satire on the conditions of wealth inequality in the world today, but as a straight family drama it functions just as well. In 10 years, I know I will still vividly remember the first time I sat down and watched this movie. 

THE PIANO (1993) 

Director Jane Campion managed to touch a nerve in her immensely beautiful film about a mute woman moving to New Zealand to become the new bride of a cold land-owner. Her only instrument of emotion is her piano, carried in stow alongside her clothes, and ultimately claimed by a converted Native man (Harvey Keitel) who bargains for her to win back the instrument through sexual favors. The movie is absolutely jaw-dropping from a technical level, but the slow romance that builds between the mute Ada (Holly Hunter) and Keitel is something that continues to challenge me and strike such an interest at the same time. Anna Paquin as the mischievious daughter of Ada is another highlight. The film is also so fascinating for its themes of colonialism and feminism. If nothing else, the film's score is my all-time favorite album of music in movie history. 

ROSEMARY'S BABY (1968) 

I've see Rosemary's Baby many times in the past but never thought of it as "an all-time favorite" until fairly recently. Roman Polanski's big Hollywood breakthrough is a taught achievement in building suspense and near-flawless dialogue. It's a horror movie that builds so slow that oftentimes I forget what happens next and still sit in virtual suspense as I worry what will happen next. Credit for Polanski, a controversial figure today but clearly a master of the craft, and Mia Farrow, one of the most tortured performances on film and certainly the basis for many modern horror tropes. The film is meticulously paced and not a scene is out of place. I'd say it's a film I can always go to with a bowl of popcorn and a blanket and find immense comfort in getting lost in, but that sounds weird, doesn't it?

92nd Academy Award Official Predictions

Greetings to those faithful readers (are you out there?) and apologies for the nearly year-long hiatus! Have you been to the movies this year? We certainly have, and not to speak for Maureen, but this has been one of the most thrilling, genuinely great years for the cinema in a while. For one reason or another, writing reviews has not been on my list of priorities, but I have been ever-faithful in my dedication to seeing as many new releases as possible....

Which leads us to the forthcoming Oscars, set to air this coming Sunday. Who will win?? Every year has had its fair share of suspense, and while many of the main categories at play are virtual locks, the simple goal of accurately predicting Best Picture remains my most coveted goal (and don't remind me of how difficult this is, we haven't got it right since 2015 when "Birdman" was the logical choice - I will reinforce that Maureen had logically been predicting "The Shape of Water" in 2018, but I jumped off the "Get Out" cliff based on some bitter tea leaves...). Sit down, get some coffee, lets deep dive into this year and recap some of the great movies of 2019:




BEST PICTURE

1. Parasite
2. 1917
3. Jojo Rabbit
4. The Irishman
5. Once Upon a Time... In Hollywood
6. Joker
7. Little Women
8. Marriage Story
9. Ford v Ferrari

Let me preface this entire conversation with an undeniable disadvantage: 1917 & Parasite were my favorite movies of the year by miles and miles. It's not often that one's favorite movies are also the undeniable front-runners for Best Picture (I can't remember a single year), but we need to already count this category as a win. Let me also mention one other fact: I, John, have a bias for Parasite...

There is precedent for a Parasite victory. It got a surprise nomination AND win at the Screen Actor's Guild Award, and the cast received nearly a minute-long standing ovation for simply walking on stage to present their film. The film has also received all the key nominations a Best Picture winner needs: directing, editing, screenplay, the aforementioned SAG Ensemble, DGA & PGA nominations... Where Roma last year certainly turned off voters, and in retrospect the "Green Book" win makes a lot more sense... Parasite could go the distance as the first foreign winner in Oscar history. Perhaps voters will feel compelled to finally take the plunge after a repeat of #OscarsSoWhite and the simple fact that Parasite is a beloved film with deep support in the industry. Where Roma was oftentimes a chore to sit through, Parasite is nearly universally-loved by audiences.

On paper, the logical winner is 1917. Maureen will attest. In fact I wonder if that is the more certain winner. Sam Mende's virtually-flawless film won the Golden Globe, DGA, PGA, and BAFTA Awards. If you know anything, you know that the one-two punch of DGA & PGA is an undeniable sign. DGA's accuracy in predicting Best Picture is a staggering 78%, PGA is 71% (don't worry, I did the math). SAG is a mere 50% accurate. The simple fact that PGA uses the same preferential voting method and still selected 1917 should be even further proof. Maybe the most convincing evidence: that no Colin Firth film nominated for Best Picture has ever lost. Shakespeare in Love. The English Patient. The King's Speech.

Both film's aren't without detractors. 1917, albeit a more technical achievement to its acting, was snubbed across the board by SAG, which used to spell doom for a film's Best Picture chances (we still looked past it and assumed La La Land had it). More recently, it only seems a Best Picture winner needs some acting nominations, not just Ensemble. Both Green Book and The Shape of Water were snubbed for ensemble in the last two years. If 1917 got nothing, what does that mean? Brokeback Mountain, La La Land, Saving Private Ryan all won DGA & PGA and lost Best Picture, and in a majority of cases, the upset came from the SAG Ensemble winner. And while DGA is often the gold standard for predicting Best Picture, it has been incorrect in predicting the top prize in 2019, 2016, 2015, 2013..... This isn't a done deal.

Other films like Once Upon a Time, The Irishman, Joker have all repeatedly proven too divisive, have lost steam, or just aren't logical. The only film on the rise is Jojo Rabbit which has virtually the same nominations as last year's Green Book and has stealthily been winning guilds left and right. In the top 3, I dare say Jojo is bronze medal far off in the distance.



BEST DIRECTOR

1. Sam Mendes (1917)
2. Bong Joon Jo (Parasite)
3. Quentin Tarantino (Once Upon a Time... In Hollywood)
4. Martin Scorsese (The Irishman)
5. Todd Phillips (Joker)

A lot of people assumed voters would want to give Tarantino a directing trophy this year, but there is no denial that directing, like Best Picture, is a 2-way horserace. Sam Mendes is virtually locked to win his second trophy after his 1999 debut for American Beauty. 1917's technical achievement is right in line with the Academy's recent preference for visual effects-heavy films that make you ask "how did they do that?" (Gravity, Life of Pi, The Revenant, Birdman...). What little hope Director Bong had of a victory has shrunk with each new award going to Mendes for a deserved victory. But really though, how did he do that??



BEST ACTOR

1. Joaquin Phoenix (Joker)
2. Adam Driver (Marriage Story)
3. Antonio Banderas (Pain and Glory)
4. Jonathan Pryce (The Two Popes)
5. Leonardo DiCaprio (Once Upon a Time... In Hollywood)

This award feels like it's been locked up for Phoenix ever since the film's premiere last fall. For a career of continually-improving work (I think Phoenix is the finest actor working today now that Daniel Day-Lewis has 'retired'), this feels a little too safe. While I preferred the soul-bearing work of Adam Driver in his second consecutive nomination, he might have to settle for a trophy on his next nomination. My only concern is whether voters want to give the character of the Joker a second Oscar (following Heath Ledger's 2008 win in supporting). After all, up until last year, the Academy had an objective bias against comic book movies. Still, to bet against Phoenix who has swept all the major awards, is simply foolish.



BEST ACTRESS

1. Renee Zelwegger (Judy)
2. Saoirse Ronan (Little Women)
3. Scarlett Johannson (Marriage Story)
4. Cynthia Erivo (Harriet)
5. Charlize Theron (Bombshell)

Another category in which the frontrunner has won literally every possible award. My initial thoughts last fall were that Saoirse Ronan could finally win on her 4th nomination at the ripe old age of 25. She might have to wait. While part of me feels like "Judy" is such a lackluster film, even I can't deny that Zelwegger's return to the big screen is show stopping in every sense of the word and will be an enormously deserved victory (her first win in Lead Actress). Hey, some people could even say "they finally gave Judy Garland an Oscar!" although let's be real, that's just silly.



BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time... In Hollywood)
2. Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood)
3. Joe Pesci (The Irishman)
4. Al Pacino (The Irishman)
5. Anthony Hopkins (The Two Popes)

This category is flooded with all the major Oscar winners of the early 1990's... All for one. I think it was Katherine Hepburn that said actors always win an Oscar for the wrong movie, and I can't help but feel this sentiment so deeply for Mr Pitt (who is already an Oscar winner for producing 12 Years a Slave... (we got that win right, by the way)). Pitt oozes charm in every scene of his film, but this win will clearly be in recognition of a career, not this performance (I think he still should have won for Moneyball). Pesci was a personal favorite, but the vote splitting between these two icons of The Irishman can't help, especially since neither has been picking up any trophies. There really isn't a foreseeable runner-up, but Tom Hanks has finally been nominated again in a well-deserved turn, and he hasn't missed any nominations the whole way... The good thing about Brad Pitt winning is that his speech will certainly charm our socks right off.



BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Laura Dern (Marriage Story)
2. Scarlett Johannson (Jojo Rabbit)
3. Florence Pugh (Little Women)
4. Margot Robbie (Bombshell)
5. Kathy Bates (Richard Jewell)

I think this will be a wholly deserving victory for Dern, who is absolutely scene-stealing in her brief role in Marriage Story. Where many thought she wouldn't be as strong a contender following SAG, BAFTA, Critic's Choice, etc, she continues to win. The runner-up (and I think this is actually pretty close) is certainly Johannson as the radiant mother in Jojo. If there's one thing voters love, it's a wonderful mother in a supporting role (well, besides I, Tonya). Johannson is hurt by her double nominations, but this really feels like a prime place to reward the film and the actress, since Renee is so far ahead for Leading Actress. Still, do I have definitive proof that Laura Dern is vulnerable? None at all. Don't bet against her unless you're feeling lucky.



BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. Parasite
2. Once Upon a Time... In Hollywood
3. Marriage Story
4. 1917
5. Knives Out

A non-Best Picture nominee isn't winning (sorry Knives Out). The strength of 1917 isn't it's writing (although by all accounts the actual written screenplay is a heartbreaker). Noah Baumbach will have to wait a little more since Marriage Story seems to have fizzled out. A lot of people suspect Quentin Tarantino is a lock for his third Oscar, but I refuse to believe that a voter will look at Parasite and Once and have any doubt as to which is the more original story. There's even precedent for a foreign winner in this category, too. I can't help but see this as a lock.

**I will say that should we see Parasite lose this award, I suspect it's chances at Best Picture would be officially over.



BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. Jojo Rabbit
2. Little Women
3. The Irishman
4. Joker
5. The Two Popes

A non-Best Picture nominee isn't winning (sorry Two Popes). The strength of Joker isn't in it's writing... Wait I'm repeating myself. Early thoughts were that The Irishman would be an easy win here, but then the film never really won any awards (as great as I think that film is). Logic (and half a brain) had people believing that Greta Gerwig's adaptation of Little Women would walk away with a victory in lieu of her snub for Best Director. The film's main achievement for many has been the adaptation of such a familiar book into something new and exciting. When's the last time a film's main praise has been in its writing? Still, Jojo Rabbit is curiously picking up a slew of awards (including the BAFTA and Writer's Guild). To be honest I'm not entirely certain why. It's now the safe bet. I want to hold out hope for Gerwig. I think it comes down to which film is more beloved, and to be honest that's been kind of hard to figure out.



BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. 1917
2. The Lighthouse
3. Joker
4. Once Upon a Time... In Hollywood
5. The Irishman

This category is stunningly awful for the inclusion of Once Upon and The Irishman, both respected films but in no way achievements of photography. This is the first time (I think ever) in which 4 films received more than 10 nominations in a single year (1917, Joker, Irishman, Once Upon...). It really might just be that with a shorter Oscar season, voters had less time to see as many films. The inclusion of The Lighthouse is so impressive here, and it's the only other nominee I could see deserving this spot. Where is Parasite? Ford v Ferrari? Little Women? Portrait of a Lady on Fire?

I digress. This is the night's biggest lock. Once one of Oscars biggest losers, Roger Deakins is assured to win his second Oscar in 3 years. When people talk about how great 1917 is, they are referring to Deakins' ghostly camerawork. I would bet anything on it.



BEST FILM EDITING

1. Parasite
2. Ford v Ferrari
3. Jojo Rabbit
4. The Irishman
5. Joker

One of the early indicator's that Tarantino's film wasn't as strong was it's lack of a nomination in this category, one of few a movie generally needs to win Best Picture. No fear for 1917 though, single-shot films (ie, Birdman) have been snubbed here and still won. So what wins? My money is Parasite, which won the Eddie Award (editor's guild) and would follow my belief that the film is on it's way to Best Picture. Generally a film needs at least 3 wins. Ford v Ferrari is also a logical choice, for it's racing sequences and high-octane finale. Then I remembered when we incorrectly assumed Baby Driver would win this category and instead Dunkirk pulled ahead. I think it's easy for people making predictions to assume the "racing" movie will win, but the general voting body of the Academy might just be checking off the film they prefer. Hacksaw Ridge did upset a few years back, though, so even a Jojo Rabbit win wouldn't entirely surprise me. Look out for this category.



BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. 1917
2. Once Upon a Time... In Hollywood
3. Jojo Rabbit
4. Parasite
5. The Irishman

This feels like a relatively safe category to call. I saw 1917 twice, and the second time I was even more enraptured by the never-ending sets and trenches, highlighted even more for the film's single-take appearance. What an accomplishment of art direction - a war zone as far as the eye can see in every direction. A burning town of twists and mazes... An underground bunker close to destruction. This flies in the face of this category's tradition of picking the film with large castles and historical detail. In fact I was prepared to go on this ledge completely on a hunch until BAFTA awarded 1917 the Production Design award and I felt a little more confident. It seems like the runner up would be a highly-detailed recreation of Hollywood in the 1960's. I would hold Parasite to a higher standard, but aside from La La Land I can't think of a recent, modern film winning this award, as impressive as it would be (let me remind you that the entire mansion and slum neighborhood was constructed from scratch).



BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1. Little Women
2. Jojo Rabbit
3. Once Upon a Time... In Hollywood
4. The Irishman
5. Joker

How Joker was nominated is entirely baffling. Besides a cheap red suit, name one other costume in the film you can remember. Go ahead, I'll wait... I think this is actually one of the more difficult categories of the night, since Costumes & Production Design are often curiously won by films that are nominated in both. That would fare well for Jojo, Once, and Irishman. And still, the idea is that the frilly skirts and historical feminine dresses are crack for Oscar voters. That did guide us absolutely nowhere last year in predicting The Favourite over the deserving win by Black Panther. In the end, though, I really don't know what the alternative is. Jojo and it's familiar Nazi suits? Hollywood and it's plethora of leather and gogo boots? Jojo won the guild award and Little Women was snubbed (I know, right?). To be honest, your guess is as good as anyone's.



BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1. Joker
2. 1917
3. Little Women
4. Marriage Story
5. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

Usually a Best Picture front-runner can sweep other categories into the mix, which probably got Thomas Newman excited at the prospect of finally winning on his 15th nomination (!!). Curiously, though, the winner all season has been newcomer Hildur Guonadottir and her brooding score for Joker. It would certainly be a deserving victory. I wouldn't be surprised by a Newman victory (and in fact it's my favorite score of the year next to Little Women), but maybe he'll get lucky on his next nomination. You know what they say: "sixteenth's time the charm..."



BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

1. Bombshell
2. Joker
3. 1917
4. Judy
5. Maleficent: Mistress of Evil

About time! Finally the category has five nominees as it always deserved. I'll be the first to say that this is a weak year to have 5. I think the logical favorite is Bombshell. Since the film's first trailer, the buzz around Charlize Theron's transformation into Megyn Kelly was overwhelming. People even forgot to talk about John Lithgow's incredible change into Roger Ailes. I can't help but dwell on this tiny knot growing in my stomach when I recollect that movies like Dallas Buyer's Club and Les Miserables managed to win with little more than some cheap rouge and dirty cheeks. I don't know how they won, but I wonder if Joker could pull off that same style of victory. If they are going to pick the "dirty" winner than I would much prefer 1917's attention to period hair and the ever-increasing challenges of trudging through mud and fire. Still, I have to shut off my brain and remind myself that prosthetics and false teeth and fat suits  is an easy choice. I'll give you three reasons why: Vice, Darkest Hour, The Iron Lady.



BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1. 1917
2. The Lion King
3. Avengers Endgame
4. The Irishman
5. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

As much as I hated The Lion King (my least-favorite movie of the year, no less), I can't deny that the film's visual effects are some of the most stunning images I have ever seen on film. Can voters look past the film's quality and reward an extended demo-reel for photorealism? This category almost always rewards the Best Picture nominee when it's available, and the Irishman's uncanny valley de-aging is certainly not going to pull this one out. Endgame, the biggest film of all time, logically seems safe, but then we realize that here is it's only nomination, and also that the subtle work in First Man managed to win over the film's first half. No modern Marvel film has ever won the award, why start here? What visual effects were there in 1917, you might ask? Beats me. Still, I can't help but think this is a fairly safe win for the film.



BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1. “I’m Gonna Love Me Again” (Rocketman)
2. “Stand Up” (Harriet)
3. “Into the Unknown” (Frozen 2)
4. “I’m Standing With You” (Breakthrough)
5. “I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away” (Toy Story 4)

I advise you listen to the five nominees when possible. It's a quick 15 minutes of your life to realize how utterly bad the majority of these nominees are. Diane Warren's submission for Breakthrough (a film I had never heard of, frankly) reeks of the disqualified and brief nomination for the "what movie??" that was Alone Yet Not Alone. Randy Newman's bizarre nomination here is less surprising when you realize that he has been nominate for every Toy Story film (and won for #3). Frozen 2 might have a better shot had it not been snubbed in Animated Feature. Harriet and Cynthia Erivo might have a good shot, but the song itself is a tonal mess that I frankly found unlistenable. Logically, Elton John is set to win another Oscar for his catchy tune from the criminally under-nominated Rocketman. The year's real winner: Glasgow, from a small film called Wild Rose. A stunning song that many people (including myself) had assumed would win in a cake walk. Take a listen.



BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

1. Klaus
2. Toy Story 4
3. I Lost My Body
4. Missing Link
5. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World

From the beginning of this race and even before nominations, I knew that the Academy dislikes sequels. In fact out of the 18 nominees in this category, only Toy Story 4 was a sequel (that's a mere 5%). I frequent the movie website goldderby.com and regularly make predictions for Oscars and such. In place of Dragon, I was safely assuming Frozen 2 would have made it. Otherwise, these were my predicted nominees. Logic says Toy Story has this, but then you factor in its Golden Globe loss (to Missing Link), it's Annie Award (animation guild) loss to Klaus (in a rare sweep), and the simple fact that almost everyone can conclude that Toy Story 4 is not as good as Toy Story 3. Voters oftentimes like to pick winners with a unique style, and Klaus's gorgeous 2D animation (I checked, it's not computer generation in the traditional sense), plus its availability on Netflix, plus it's wit an charm, I think this is an easy race to call. I would bet on the amazing I Lost My Body if there was any hint that voters don't view this category as "Best Kid's Film."Unfortunately, this is pretty much just that.



BEST SOUND EDITING

1. 1917
2. Ford v Ferrari
3. Joker
4. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
5. Star Wars: The Rise of SkyWalker

Is anyone else still deeply disturbed by last year's sound sweep for Bohemian Rhapsody? (or the simple fact that Rhapsody walked away with more Oscars than any film all year.... I shudder) It's simply foolish to try and determine whether voters will split the sound categories or pick one film across the board. Dunkirk. Mad Max. Bohemian. Gravity. They all won both. The rare chance of a split is sometimes a surprise (Arrival for Mixing, Hacksaw Ridge for Editing for one). 1917 feels so safe, even in the face of the sound-heavy revving in Ford. War films generally fare better anyways.



BEST SOUND MIXING

1. 1917
2. Ford v Ferrari
3. Ad Astra
4. Joker
5. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

See above. I rest my case.



BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. American Factory
2. For Sama
3. Honeyland
4. The Cave
5. The Edge of Democracy

I have admittedly only seen 1 (American Factory) which is already being heralded as the front-runner for a variety of reasons: Netflix, the Obama's production company, timely story about the American economy, etc. Yet again, the front-runner was snubbed (this year it was Apollo 11), so the support for many of these films is yet untested. Honeyland is the first documentary also nominated in International Film, so who knows whether that means more support. For Sama might have the emotional punch that will tickle voters' the right way. I'm not going to guess, but this is my least confident of all 24 categories.



BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

1. Parasite
2. Pain and Glory
3. Honeyland
4. Les Miserables
5. Corpus Christi

Second biggest lock of the night. Are we even kidding here?



BEST ANIMATED SHORT

1. Hair Love
2. Kitbull
3. Memorable
4. Daughter
5. Sister

The third consecutive year I have seen all the short nominees, and the third consecutive year I have felt so frustrated in determining the winner. Out of all categories, the shorts have the least amount of precursors, relying solely on personal emotion and Academy trends. One trend is that if there's a cute animal, chances are the film will win. Kitbull certainly hits it out of the park - a crudely animated film about a friendship between a fighter dog and an adorable black cat. However, another trend is to reward the film with the most 'celebrity' behind it. That bodes well for Hair Love, a charming film about a father and daughter, created by the likes of Issa Rae, Jordan Peele, and Gabourey Sidibe. Were I a voter, Kitbull or Memorable would certainly get my support, Memorable being a stop-motion film about the effects of Alzheimer's on a painter - beautifully captured through varying styles of impressionist art. If there's one lesson I've learned, though, it's a tough choice to pick your favorites here.



BEST DOCUMENTARY: SHORT SUBJECT

1. Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You're A Girl)
2. In the Absence
3. St. Louis Superman
4. Life Overtakes Me
5. Walk Run Cha-Cha

Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone harkens back to other winning titles like Period End of Sentence, The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life, and Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405. I mean, come on, do voters even care, or are they picking the film with the most eye-catching title? Still, a heartwarming documentary about kids learning to skate in Syria just sounds like a winner on paper already. Let's just go with it.



BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

1. The Neighbors’ Window
2. Brotherhood
3. Nefta Football Club
4. Saria
5. A Sister

My money is on The Neighbors' Window, a slick story with an actual beginning, middle, and end. Not too dark, but thoroughly entertaining. Oh, it's also the only film in English (sometimes look for the odd-film out, and the Academy famously loves to pick American among a group of foreigners). My personal opinion is that Brotherhood is the most accomplished of these 5, a beautifully-shot film anchored by a stunning performance (the father) that has better cinematography than at least 3 of the feature nominees. However, I imagine that it's dark nature, grouped alongside Saria (a messy narrative with a lopsided ending) and A Sister (one of my favorites but certainly too short and narrowly-constructed to win) might all get jumbled up and cancel each other. Look out for Nefta Football Club, since shorts starring kids usually win. I only rank it so low because the film (which is brief) is ultimately a long-running gag with a weak punchline. I think Oscar voters want to be perceived as having more taste.

Us (****)

Jordan Peele surprised many with his genre-bending debut Get Out, that racial-horror-comedy-satire movie that won over audiences & critics (and the Oscar for Original Screenplay). Here is the true test of a debut filmmaker: the sequel. I will admit I went into Us rather excited, engaged by the premise and thrilled for the cast. What kind of movie is this? For one, it's no Get Out. I think that works as a pro and a con. Let me dive in a little.

The film's most suspenseful sequence comes in the opening moments when a young Adelaide (the adult form played by Lupita N'yongo) wanders off from her parents at a carnival and stumbles into a maze of mirrors, culminating with not a jump scare, but a hard cut to our opening credits complete with an eerie score. It's quite the setup. 30 years later, we reunite with our heroine along with her husband (Winston Duke) and their two kids. They're returning to the same beach town where the film opened - a town that has left Adelaide wracked with fear and confusion.

If you've seen the trailers then you get the idea: one night at their secluded cabin, the family is stalked and tormented by a group of dopplegangers ("they're us...") who break into their house in red jumpsuits and brandish large gold scissors as their weapons of choice. The "other" family (characters come to be called "tethered) are mostly animalistic, grunting and screaming, but Adelaide's other (called Red) has a worn voice that feels more like a creaky door than a human. Credit to N'yongo for the creation (which some have criticized for her source of inspiration on the voice. Google it.... It's not the biggest deal).

It becomes a cat and mouse game in which we begin to wonder "will the family escape?" "where did the tethered people come from?" and "how will it end?" Well, as the story progresses, it becomes more and more clear that Jordan Peele is taking us deep down a different rabbit hole (complete with rabbits even) and that our perceptions of this film are a far cry from the story actually being told. Where I assumed this would be set in one house, with 4 actors, etc., we instead journey out into the town that is ravaged by these jumpsuit-clad murderers, all of whom bear resemblance to another person in the town - hell, maybe the world?

The story began to waver for me despite its brilliant set up and scenes of pure suspense ("there's a family in our driveway..."). Where I might have appreciated the film in that secluded setting (ala "The Birds" or "Night of the Living Dead") it began to explore more grand themes that ultimately left me puzzled and wondering whether or not I as an audience member missed out on key plot details. The final shot will leave many asking questions as to what comes next... I myself could see the symbolism at work but still wondered "what the hell is going on" in the final scenes. There's a sort of twist that alters the plot we just saw in an M Night Shyamalan-inspired reveal, but even that raised more questions as to the film's overall validity... I'm not sure if this climax holds up on repeat viewing... This leads me to my final point: I need to watch the movie again.

Peele is clearly a talent behind the lens. His shot compositions and style is quickly becoming his own. Between his two films, I understand his perspective, and I further acknowledge that he is very skilled in all aspects of his work. The person most deserving of praise is Lupita N'yongo, who easily tops her Oscar-winning performance in 12 Years A Slave and seems poised to repeat Toni Collette's snub at last year's Oscars for "best performance in a horror movie the Academy refuses to acknowledge." In every scene we sense her torment, and Red (the antagonist) is so readily iconic for her wide eyes and haunting voice. Bravo! The rest of the family is also great, though slight criticisms could be pointed out for the evil children who perform menace by cocking their heads and bearing wide-eyed smiles... We get it, that's what creepy people do. I don't know if it really works.

I don't often try to read other reviews about films, but here I felt compelled to find people discussing spoilers and symbolisms and whatnot. I feel like the last third of the film just slipped in one ear and quickly was lost on me. The opening shot (a commercial for "Hands Across America") follows through in the rest of the story. What does it all mean? Maybe I was in the wrong headspace. I know many people will go to this film for the scares and nothing more. I'm sure they will have a good time. I just know that Jordan Peele is too smart to make a film that is so superficial. There's a lot more than meets the eye.

Reaction to the Academy Awards

Wow. I can't say this year was set in stone, and in fact our predictions only accurately predicted a measly 15 of the 24 categories. Yet again, we missed the Best Picture prize.... What does it take to win? Where Roma seemed the least-permeable in terms of weakness going in (receiving the most nominations at 10), it was ultimately Green Book that came out victorious - that film with No Best Director nomination about a black & white duo traveling around in a car. Surely the directing snub would have been enough to shut down that film's chances (and with a measly 5 nominations). Nope. 2019 will now oddly mirror 1990 in which Driving Miss Daisy (a film about a black & white duo driving around in a car) won the top prize without a directing nomination all while Spike Lee is left in the dust...

Where to begin? The show (a tight 3 hours 15 mins) did feel more streamlined due to lack of a host. We lost no categories to commercial breaks, did without the extended gags of selling Girl Scout Cookies and such, and got extra time for the winners (well, most of them). Despite the mess going into this show, maybe they are on to something with the 'no host' thing.

The biggest surprise of the night was without doubt the upset by Olivia Colman against now 7-time loser Glenn Close (the biggest living Oscar-nominated actor with 7 snubs... Amy Adams is just behind her now with 6). Initial reactions were dropped jaws as our finely-tuned ears did not echo with the expected phrase "...and the winner is Glenn Close in "The Wife." Then the realization began to sink in, and at least for me, the sheer joy of seeing the Academy reward a truly remarkable performance (the year's best for what it's worth) reminds us that sometimes they do pick the best, not the career achievement. That's not to diminish Glenn Close's subtle work, of course. Sometimes, the odds aren't on your side. Colman's speech was one of the night's highlights: spur of the moment, from the heart, and ultimately hilarious ("Lady Gaga, blerrrggghh..").

The ceremony began without a hitch (well, minus the Supporting Actress surprise), and as categories began to roll along with expected winners coming out on top (Free Solo, Vice for makeup, etc), it began to feel like we were on our way to a night of few to no surprises. One outcome that seems so obvious in hindsight is the success of Black Panther and its 3 wins (Costume, Art Direction, Score). Wow. We had a feeling The Favourite wouldn't come out on top, but as the awards clicked along, the superhero scene finally took off for the Oscars (Spider-Man was another deserving victor). It seems like now, with the 'new' Academy, we shouldn't be afraid to branch out from the English historical movies to select some of these categories. Make note: it doesn't take a British monarch to secure an Oscar anymore.

The night's biggest winner was... Bohemian Rhapsody (with 4 trophies). Both sound awards, film editing, and Best Actor. 4 months ago, Rhapsody was a critically-panned work that few expected to receive any nominations. Tonight, it won all of its nominations but one: Best Picture? What happened? Rare is it for a musical film to win Sound Mixing these days (La La Land proved that), but to win both categories is unheard of. It seems like the simple popularity of the film (nearly $1 billion at the global box office) combined with backlash from voters who said "you can't tell me what I will or will not vote for!" helped the film's chances. All I can say is how thankful I am that this year has concluded. At least no one thanked Bryan Singer in their speeches. I have a sneaking suspicion that this might come to be regarded among the worst of the Best Picture nominees in history (but again, that's just me).

Going along with that idea of backlash is Green Book and its 3 trophies (Picture, Screenplay, Supporting Actor). The award season was fraught with headlines aimed to sink the film's chances, from the denial of truth from Shirley's real-life family, to the racist tweets from screenwriter (and son of the film's main character) Nick Vallelonga. With Academy membership having been expanded by 1/3rd and recent "artsy" winners like Moonlight  and Shape of Water, Green Book began to feel like it was aging poorly the moment Julia Roberts finished announcing its name. With a preferential ballot, though, we see the correlation again to the PGA Award (where it also won) and begin to see that despite these hiccups, Green Book remained the year's most generally-agreed upon film, as strange as that sounds.

Regina King surprised me, but was a safe choice for others. She is now the first actor to win an Oscar while being snubbed by SAG and BAFTA. Perhaps it was the lack of a solid second-place winner that secured it for her. What happened to Rachel Weisz? This year will forever be identical to the year of Sylvester Stallone/Mark Rylance, only with the outcomes reversed. How did King win? It will take some time to figure it out, but how great it was to hear her moving speech among a night of many moving speeches.

Roma  ultimately took home 3: for cinematography, directing, and foreign film. Once a front-runner, I have a feeling that voters began to see the juggernaut of Netflix and it's massive $50+ million campaign as overkill. Where Roma felt like David, I think in reality it became more of a goliath. From a tiny art-house piece that feels so in line with Oscar trends, the Netflix bias (is it cinema or television?) and overall confusion surely led to its demise.

Still, it's that final award that hums in my brain. A film like Green Book winning is not entirely surprising, but it feels like a winner more akin to the 1960's or 1970's, not something relevant to today. As one critic stated, it's little more than "a movie about a racist teaching a black guy how to be black." In a time when our culture is divided and politics run amok, then maybe this is the best film to represent us. No, it's not really looking forward... It's just kind of sad that of all the clever, beautiful, remarkable nominees, they picked the one with probably the least amount to say about our times today. Am I upset? About Bohemian and Green Book, somewhat. When placed against Olivia Colman, though, maybe we can call it a draw.

Oscar Predictions in 24 categories - A Global Ceremony

What a lineup. The 2019 Oscars are primed to be one of the most diverse, unique, and global ceremonies to date. The top nominations are arguably a weak bunch, divided in their critical praise and box office figures. Perhaps this is thanks to the new influx of Academy members in the past few years (their voting body has increased by nearly a third), or perhaps the changes in Hollywood are actually making their mark (Netflix received 13 nominations!).

We can read the tea-leaves, but nearly every single film missed somewhere on the ride to these nominations... We have been incorrect in predicting Best Picture 3 years in a row (all the way back when we correctly guessed Birdman in 2014). What's going on?? Year after year, the Oscar race is demonstrating to us that with new, more diverse voters, the trends of the past are going away. No more do we need a film to be nominated in Editing, in Director, at SAG Ensemble, etc... That's making it particularly hard at predicting, but definitely keeps the race exciting.

This year's ceremony has been fraught with idiocy at every turn. From the Academy initially announcing an award for "Best Popular Film," then changing their mind, to announcing Kevin Hart as the host to a slew of criticism, then proposing awards like Cinematography and Editing be awarded during commercial breaks.... Then changing their minds. Oh, and announcing only 2 songs (the 2 performed by a-list celebs) would be performed on the televised ceremony........ and then changing their minds. As a matter of taste, no award at the Oscars is above any of the others, even though the night is flooded with actors galore. Whoever makes these decisions should swiftly be fired. Each new decision has left a progressively bitter taste in audiences' mouthes, all for the sake of televising an awards show "at no more than 3 hours long." Honestly, who cares? The way to make a more efficient ceremony isn't by editing out televised wins, but this is another conversation altogether. Anyways, where were we:



BEST PICTURE

1. Roma
2. BlacKkKlansman
3. Green Book
4. Vice
5. The Favourite
6. A Star Is Born
7. Black Panther
8. Bohemian Rhapsody

It's rare for Best Picture to be awarded as an "IOU," and the whispers of Spike Lee being crowned as makeup for earlier snubs is likely a foolish belief. Same for Bradley Cooper and his "Star" project, once a frontrunner, now dead on arrival. With a snubs in editing and directing, it seems like early hype wasn't enough to keep it alive. A Star Is Dead, so to say. The Favourite received the most nominations, but missed DGA. I know we mentioned old trends fading away, but DGA has remained a bellwether through thick and thin. Green Book won PGA, but can the controversy keep it alive? Year after year, we have seen sharply-divided films (Three Billboards, Boyhood, etc) lose under the preferential ballot. What makes Green Book any different here?

Our only logical conclusion is Roma, that beautiful black and white foreign film that will become the first-ever foreign winner. Considering the political climate and whispers of a US wall to keep Mexicans out, the liberal Academy won't be able to contain themselves. Yes, it's Netflix. Yes, it's foreign... Yes, it's black and white. There's a first for everything. Cuaron won DGA, which is a good sign. The film was snubbed at SAG... Oh well. The same thing happened to Shape of Water last year. It also missed an Editing nomination. All I can say is this: when your film receives 2 surprise acting nominations as well as 2 sound nominations (Sound Editing nominees usually go to war films... Roma had some of the most subtle soundscapes in recent Academy history)... If that doesn't show broad support for a particular film, then what does?


BEST DIRECTOR

1. Alfonso Cuaron - Roma
2. Spike Lee - BlacKkKlansman
3. Adam McKay - Vice
4. Yorgos Lanthimos - The Favourite
5. Pawel Pawlikowski - Cold War

Cold War: only the second time a director has received a lone nomination without their film receiving a Best Picture nomination since expanding the field to 10 (the first film being Foxcatcher). The snub of Bradley Cooper is indeed surprising but in hindsight somewhat expected (first Ben Affleck's snub now here, I think the Academy doesn't like attractive male actors-turned directors anymore... Kevin Costner & Robert Redford better consider themselves lucky they won before this new trend began). Let's be real, Alfonso has virtually no competition. He's won nearly every award this entire season. The 5th time in 6 years that a Mexican filmmaker will win the directing prize (that'll be 2 for Alfonso, 2 for Innaritu, 1 for del Toro). This also continues the trend (though less-so in recent years) that Picture & Director are the same film. Viva Mexico!


BEST ACTOR

1. Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody)
2. Christian Bale (Vice)
3. Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born)
4. Viggo Mortensen (Green Book)
5. Willem Dafoe (At Eternity's Gate)

Unlike last year, a majority of the acting categories seem ripe for upsets. Where Frances and Gary and Allison and Sam won all the major precursors last year, we have seen splits and upsets and divides galore. I have had a hunch since buzz began to build that this would be Malek's award to lose, despite the often controversial lip-syncing (lets be honest, no one would have been able to mimic Freddie Mercury anyways). I remain partial to Cooper and Mortensen, but their support has fizzled in recent months. Maybe Bradley Cooper remains a loooooong shot of vote splitting occurs between #1 and #2 (how funny that of all the major awards he's been nominated for this year, he only managed to win a Grammy). The only real challenger seems to be Christian Bale, who follows in the footsteps of Gary Oldman to play a fat politician. Is his performance big enough? Certainly Bale is an actor deserving of 2 Academy Awards... SAG went for Malek. BAFTA went for Malek. Oscars will probably fall in line.


BEST ACTRESS

1. Glenn Close (The Wife)
2. Olivia Colman (The Favourite)
3. Yalitza Aparicio (Roma)
4. Lady Gaga (A Star Is Born)
5. Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)

Yes it's probably foolish to have Gaga any lower than #3, but can we really deny that Glenn Close will lose to another pop star (first being Cher in Moonstruck)? Close has won virtually all of the precursors... SAG, Critics Choice, Golden Globe... Colman still could be a potential upset for an arguably "showier" role and the broad support for The Favourite overall. BAFTA loved her, but is that much of a surprise for a British voting group? Part of me feels like this would be cruel to Glenn Close... Having her lose her 7th nomination, I mean. Then again, we know the Academy can be ruthless. Peter O'Toole never won with 8 nominations. Richard Burton with 7... I really want to go on a limb for Colman, but logically there is little evidence to support that kind of upset. It feels like a massive upset ala Marion Cotillard besting Julie Christie in 2008. Then again, Julie Christie wasn't on nomination #7. Let's call this a Veteran's Achievement Oscar and move on.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Mahershala Ali (Green Book)
2. Richard E Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
3. Sam Elliott (A Star Is Born)
4. Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman)
5. Sam Rockwell (Vice)

Despite the headscratcher inclusion of Rockwell for a 5-minute spoof performance of W Bush, this has virtually been the same lineup all year (minus Timothee Chalamet). I have been confused about Adam Driver all season, a decent actor but ultimately forgettable in his respective film. Any of the top 3 seem like potential spoilers, but like Glenn Close, Ali has won most of the top prizes so far. He's about to win his 2nd Oscar in 2 years. Grant had such a delicious performance that it's a shame more awards didn't come his way this season. Even BAFTA couldn't break the Ali streak. No Oscar at this point would be a snub.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Rachel Weisz (The Favourite)
2. Amy Adams (Vice)
3. Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)
4. Marina de Tavira (Roma)
5. Emma Stone (The Favourite)

Yikes. I don't know what to do. "Experts" have been claiming Regina King to be the clear winner all season, despite missing nominations at SAG and BAFTA. Sound familiar? It should. Sylvester Stallone followed the exact same trajectory for Creed and was still the frontrunner all the way to Oscar night when Mark Rylance's name was called out instead. It was 2015. That year saw the SAG winner go to an actor (Idris Elba) who was snubbed at the Oscars... Kind of like when Emily Blunt won SAG this year... BAFTA went to the ultimate Oscar victor Mark Rylance - his only major win (and most people at the time assumed he won just because he was British). Why is Regina still ahead? For the life of me I can't tell, but maybe it's because no clear front-runner has emerged in her place. Amy Adams was often cited here and might win on nomination #6, but she, like the other 3 actresses, have won virtually nothing. We have to side with BAFTA. They predicted that Rylance upset. In fact they often are telling about these supporting races (Tilda Swinton, Alan Arkin.... All upsets that BAFTA predicted first)... Of the whole night, I think this is the most suspenseful category of the night.


BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. BlacKkKlansman
2. Can You Ever Forgive Me?
3. If Beale Street Could Talk
4. A Star Is Born
5. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

This is a curiously weak category. Unlike Best Picture, here is a category where they can give Spike Lee that 'overdue' Oscar. It doesn't hurt that he's in the only serious Best Picture front-runner in the lineup. We must consider that Can You Ever... had that surprise upset at the Writer's Guild. Barry Jenkin's lush screenplay for Beale Street might have been more of a threat of the film received more love, that being said I don't think the Academy would be afraid to reward Jenkins one more time. The Academy's love for the Coen brothers continues to surprise us (Scruggs). A Star Is Dead, sorry to be repetitive.


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. The Favourite
2. Green Book
3. First Reformed
4. Roma
5. Vice

This year is so hard to predict only because there aren't many categories with clear front-runners. Original Screenplay often goes to the most innovative, weird, creative story... Think Get Out, Her, Birdman, Django... They usually like to reward a single screenwriter, too (as opposed to a team of writers). Well, what's the most original here? Logic says the razor tongues and wits of the ladies in Favourite would set that film ahead (though it is credited to two writers). Then again, Paul Schrader just received his first nomination ever for First Reformed. Could a respected veteran like that win here against 4 Best Picture nominees?? If Roma is winning it all then we can't ultimately count out Cuaron to win here as well. Green Book won the Globe. Eighth Grade won the Guild (alongside its shocking DGA win, "Eighth Grade" feels more and more like it was unfairly snubbed across the board). I don't see any film here that has a clear front-runner status. Throw a dart, I don't know.


BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. Roma
2. Cold War
3. The Favourite
4. A Star Is Born
5. Never Look Away

Roma. Done. Next.

To be fair, the Cinematography Guild (right probably 50% of the time) gave us a shock when they rewarded Cold War. Could this cinematographer (Łukasz Żal, who previous received a nom for similar work in Ida) sneak up and surprise? I doubt it, but that's the spoiler here. Never Look Away, another foreign nominee (3 in a year, wow!) is probably the most unexpected, unheard of nominee in a major category since "Alone Yet Not Alone" was controversially included in the Best Original Song lineup. At least this one doesn't smell like foul play.


BEST EDITING

1. Bohemian Rhapsody
2. BlacKkKlansman
3. Vice
4. The Favourite
5. Green Book

Could Bohemian Rhapsody, a film Twitter has declared one of the worst-edited films ever nominated (google it), take the top prize? Well, when the lineup doesn't include the predicted front-runners like Black Panther, Roma, or even A Star Is Born, then what's down is up and up is down. Certainly the Academy felt justified in nominating the film for its senseless, scattered, logic-less editing choices, but what else is the front-runner here? I vividly recall the scene in BlacKkKlansman in which a speech is being given while the faces of an audience are slowly faded in and out. I also remember the crisp editing of The Favourite and its slow takes, double-exposures, and sense of place. Are these films too slow to win here? For the Academy - absolutely. The faster the better. Look out for BAFTA-winner Vice, too. Funny enough, the last film to win here with a deliberately slow pace was Alfonso Cuaron's Gravity, a movie remembered for long-takes, few cuts, and a clear story. If they liked the style so much, then why snub Roma?


BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. The Favourite
2. Black Panther
3. Mary Poppins Returns
4. Roma
5. First Man

This category is inexplicably tied to Costume Design and vice versa. It's rare for a film to win one without being nominated in the other. That narrows the field down to our top 3. Of those, The Favourite seems to have the best chance - historical, royalty, dresses, etc... I can't put my finger on why I feel so unsure about this. Black Panther is looking likely to sneak away with one or two awards if it's lucky tonight. Are we due for a surprise or two? Or is the Panther rage not going to translate well with Academy voters?


BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1. The Favourite
2. Black Panther
3. Mary Poppins
4. Mary Queen of Scotts
5. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

Again, our top 3 are the logical frontrunners. Will it be a Favourite sweep? For convenience's sake I will say yes. Hear it from me first though: Black Panther or Poppins have what it takes to upset.


BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

1. Vice
2. Mary Queen of Scots
3. Border

I, personally, was upset the Academy couldn't find it in their hearts to nominate Suspiria for their transformation of Tilda Swinton into an elderly German... Then again, why exactly does this category only allow 3 nominees? Vice is clearly winning. Like Darkest Hour, La Vie En Rose, Iron Lady, Frida, etc, the film that transforms its star into an historical figure will always win. When there are two nominees that fit the bill - pick the one with a fat suit.


BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1. If Beale Street Could Talk
2. Black Panther
3. BlacKkKlansman
4. Mary Poppins Returns
5. Isle of Dogs

Is it just me or is this arguably one of the weakest lineups of original score in maybe forever? Where is the brooding electronics of Annihilation, the mystery and beauty of Thom York's work on Suspiria, or the previously presumed front-runner First Man?! What is the winner here? Like Adapted Screenplay, being a Best Picture nominee helps. That's not to say I don't feel like Mary Poppins could win for it's remarkably innovative and theatrical compositions. If it was up to me, that would get my vote. Still, one of the most consistently-praised aspects of Beale is that lush music, and Nicholas Britell has been overdue since his work for Moonlight was cruelly snubbed.


BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1. "Shallow" - A Star Is Born
2. "All The Stars" - Black Panther
3. "I Fight" - RBG
4. "The Place Where The Lost Things Go" - Mary Poppins Returns
5. "When A Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings" - The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

As partial as I am for the Scruggs song (a highlight of an already charming film), this is Lady Gaga's Oscar. Her name is already engraved. It's quite a deserving winner, too. The other four are just happy to be nominated, and anyone else besting Gaga would be an upset of monumental caliber. This is the most assured lock of the night, despite the shortcomings of the film itself.


BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1. First Man
2. Avengers: Infinity War
3. Ready Player One
4. Solo: A Star Wars Story
5. Christopher Robin

Always wager on the Best Picture nominee (aside from one or two notable surprises... Ex Machina, for instance, a win that was oh so deserving but oh so confusing). When you don't have a Best Picture nominee, pick the film that probably could have made the final list... In this case, it's not hard to pick First Man for it's flying sequences and moon-landing. If anything, perhaps here is finally a chance for Oscars to give Marvel some recognition, or honor the forgotten but still impressive Ready Player One. Many people are betting on Avengers, and it's honestly a difficult choice between the top two... The snub of Black Panther here only confirms the Academy's focus on quality. Then again, it's been since 2004's Spider-Man 2 that a superhero won the category. Marvel isn't necessarily a darling of the Oscars yet. As a side note - I was very impressed with the photorealism (albeit sometimes creepy appearance) of "Christopher Robin" and what a pleasant surprise this nomination was.


BEST SOUND MIXING

1. Bohemian Rhapsody
2. Roma
3. First Man
4. A Star Is Born
5. Black Panther

The first of our mystifying Sound categories. Mixing, the category that generally rewards music-based stories (not always... *cough* La La Land was passed over in a rare demonstration that the Academy does regard quality over "buzz"), has two options to choose from between Bohemian and Star. Then again, Mixing does like it's action too. Surprised to see Roma here? We were too, but then remembered Best Picture winner Slumdog Millionaire came out victorious here, so maybe Roma has a better shot than we think... In the end, the dubbing and musical montages and Live Aid sequence seems poised to tip the scales towards Freddie Mercury, albeit reluctantly.


BEST SOUND EDITING

1. First Man
2. A Quiet Place
3. Black Panther
4. Bohemian Rhapsody
5. Roma

It's a tough call to bet against the one film of the year where sound played such a crucial role (A Quiet Place), but to see the film snubbed in Sound Mixing where I would have thought it had a better 'mix' than 'edit' regarding sound, I wonder if there's enough support across the board for it to succeed. Whiplash managed to win Sound Mixing without a nomination here, so it's possible, but I have a feeling the rocket engines and silent moon landing of First Man might give that film an Oscar despite being overall forgotten in larger categories. Maybe Black Panther could pull it off too, but when you're comparing action scenes to previous winners like The Dark Knight, I really don't think Panther can hold a candle to that kind of quality.

Sound Editing regards creating a unique soundscape unique to the film. It's hearing sounds we have never heard before. It's imagination, creativity.... It's the dinosaur sounds in Jurassic Park or the strange electric guitar and motors from Mad Max. The nomination of Bohemian Rhapsody here is so shocking and disturbing that I now fully admit that I have no idea what sound is anymore. I also further acknowledge that my blind dismissal of the film may allow it to sneak up and win 3 or 4 Oscars... I hope not, but it's certainly possible.


BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1. Spider-Man: Into the Spiderverse
2. Isle of Dogs
3. Incredibles II
4. Mirai
5. Ralph Breaks the Internet

Never for a second did I believe Incredibles had a shot here. I was convinced this would finally be Wes Anderson's time to win a long overdue Oscar... Until I saw Spider-Man. As cold as I usually am to superhero movies, this was an achievement in movies, and particularly animated ones. I'm not surprised this film is raking in the wins, and it should very easily claim an Oscar as one of the most innovative animated films I've seen in a while. Wes Anderson, your time is coming - but not yet.


BEST ANIMATED SHORT

1. Weekends
2. Late Afternoon
3. Animal Behavior
4. Bao
5. One Small Step

Hindsight is usually 20/20 in these categories, despite predicting them nearly always being an impossible task. Year after year I have watched short films, fallen in love with some, assumed voters would do, and then feel heartbroken when my "assured winner" was snubbed. This year, for instance, I found Late Afternoon to be one of the more sublime movies I've seen- a colorful and heartbreaking story of a woman sifting through her memories amidst Alzheimer's. Maybe it could still get the sentimental vote. On pure comedy Animal Behavior wins, not to mention this category tends to reward the option with animals... Then again, the animation is so crude that one could argue it doesn't match the artistic efforts of the others. Bao is Pixar's annual entry - beloved by many, but feels so safe that I don't think voters will give it a second glance. The standout from an animation standpoint is Weekends, a strange yet eye-opening glance into a boy dealing with the divorce of his parents. The style is impressionistic and memorable, it's full of scary but inventive dream sequences, and the accompanying Satie piano pieces work perfectly to encapsulate this dark world. In looking back over past winners, we tend to see the film that pushes the envelope with style... Of the five, nothing quite matches it.


BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

1. Marguerite
2. Skin
3. Detainment
4. Madre
5. Fauve

I have enjoyed seeing the short films at my local theater the past few years, though I have discovered that actually seeing the shorts does hurt my odds at predictions. These categories are up in the air, and with no major precursors to guide the way, emotion can oftentimes trip us up. This lineup of 5 films is one of the most dour, emotionally-draining, and disturbing selections I can remember. Detainment has gained the most publicity (and controversy) for it's real-life portrait of two 10-year old killers... The film left me gasping for air and in unrelenting tears, and I don't think it's because the film was amazing. Madre is a beautiful story told almost entirely in one continuous shot, but the ending leaves us wanting more. I think Skin actually has a real shot here, a strange yet brutal view of American racism today (with a twist), but I feel like the controversy surrounding Detainment will push it ahead, whether or not its praise is worthy. Ultimately, Marguerite feels like the winner here, the one feel-good in the bunch, not particularly memorable, but a quaint story about an elderly woman coming to terms with her own sexuality at end of life. With the shorts, movies with child actors usually come out on top. Here is the one nominee that features none. Is this a risky bet?


BEST DOCUMENTARY

1. Free Solo
2. Minding the Gap
3. RBG
4. Of Fathers and Sons
5. Hale County This Morning, This Evening

It's a sad day in the neighborhood of Academy Awards. I won't even begin to comprehend how Won't You Be My Neighbor or Three Identical Strangers are not in a majority of the voter's top-5 documentaries of the year. Last year it was Jane. Before that it was Life Itself. Even Hoop Dreams. This group has a notorious reputation to snub any film that is actually a critical and commercial success. What's going on? What are we left with... It seems really obvious that a movie like Free Solo has the edge and will win for its artistic merit and ode to the physical feat of one man (I'm strongly reminded of Man on Wire here). RBG is too plain a movie, arguably a TV-level film (and not even the best bio-doc of the year..... We're obviously talking about Fred Rogers). Minding the Gap has critical strength and a multi-focused story on race and poverty set against the backdrop of skateboarding and is our choice for possible upset.


BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT

1. Period. End of Story
2. End Game
3. LIFEBOAT
4. A Night at the Garden
5. Black Sheep

The winner is so clearly in front of us that I wonder if there will be some cruel twist in which another film comes out victorious. Period tells the charming but eye-opening story of the female menstrual cycle in India and the lack of access to basic sanitation. What happens? A bunch of women band together to open a small business that creates feminine pads and reveals the stigma around the subject. It's charming and important, in every way that a short film should be. The Netflix factor will help. Runners up to End Game and it's truly moving depiction of various aspects of hospice care in the US, and LIFEBOAT about African migrants crossing some truly dangerous waters. The odd one out seems to be Night at the Garden which amounts to little more than a 5 minute found footage assembly of a Nazi rally just before WWII in New York City. It's scary how much the times seem similar to our own, and despite the film having many shortcomings (length, no story, no explanation), it's certainly an apple amidst a bunch of oranges.


BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

1. Roma
2. Cold War
3. Never Look Away
4. Shoplifters
5. Capernaum

Some people are foolishly predicting a Cold War upset, but clearly forgot that Roma is tied as the year's most nominated film. Not to mention, the only other foreign film to receive as many nominations was Crouching Tiger, which curiously lost Best Picture but still won this category. Cold War came out in the wrong year, simple as that. This will be Mexico's first win, as shocking as that is. Again with the politics of it all, to give the award to Mexico seems too good for voters to pass up.