John's Oscar Nominations Reactions/Current Thoughts:

Well, the day has finally come, and we now have one solid month in which to determine Oscar winners from the freshly-named nominees. While there were plenty of surprises, overall I think the majority of nominations are greatly deserved and ones that we definitely saw coming. *I am going to make initial predictions based on today’s nominations – picks that will most likely change in a month’s time.


BEST PICTURE

It’s not even a question: up until today, The Social Network has been the awards’ juggernaut, winning just about every best picture award there was to have. Early favorites like The King’s Speech and Black Swan didn’t seem to pick up enough awards, but today there seems to be a change – with The King’s Speech AND True Grit picking up several more nominations (12 and 10, respectively) that The Social Network (at 8, tied with Inception). The love for these films seems to be much bigger than expected, and there now seems to be the tiny glimmer of a Best Picture upset. Overall, though, the nominees for Best Picture are essentially as predicted, and there aren’t any glaring surprises.
Prediction: The King’s Speech (gasp!)

BEST DIRECTOR

What does Christopher Nolan have to do to be recognized as one of today’s greatest directors? Isn’t the reason we have 10 Best Picture nominees today because his film The Dark Knight got snubbed back in 2008? I can somewhat understand the Academy’s decision to nominate the Coens, but I still scratch my head over the overwhelming love there continues to be for The Fighter and David O. Russell, who’s film just didn’t cut it for me. I still doubt David Fincher can lose here, but could this be a year where Best Picture and Best Director split? Can The King’s Speech AND The Social Network win top prizes? I could very easily see it happening as of now.
Prediction: David Fincher

BEST ACTOR

Although I haven’t seen the film, I’m very happy to see Javier Bardem receive a nomination, even though he was largely snubbed the rest of the awards season. Clearly this award has Colin Firth’s name already written on it, and the 4 other nominees should be happy with their nominations.
Prediction: Colin Firth (duh)

BEST ACTRESS

The inclusion of Michelle Williams seems to reflect that the Academy wants to award Hailee Steinfeld an Oscar this year, as she could have easily have received a lead actress nomination as well. Her bump to supporting really boosts her chances. However, this race is down to Natalie Portman, with Annette Bening barely holding on.
Prediction: Natalie Portman (Sorry Annette)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Andrew Garfield’s lack of a nomination suggests that the Social Network may not have as much clout with the Academy as others suspected. We know this award is Christian Bale’s to lose, so what would have been the harm in nominating Garfield and boosting the Oscar nominations for The Social Network?
Prediction: Christian Bale

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

While Melissa Leo is currently the front-runner by a few paces, I could easily see this going to Hailee Steinfeld… Or Helena Bonham Carter… Or the overdue Amy Adams. Out of all the categories this one is currently the toughest to call, but this Sunday’s SAG awards will hopefully shed some light on the future winner. Also happily surprised to see Jacki Weaver nominated! I’m surprised at the lack of love for the Black Swan supporting ladies, especially Barbara Hershey! This was the one category where there were so many great options, but I think the 5 chosen are perfect.
Prediction: Hailee Steinfeld

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

This is the one category where the Social Network is guaranteed an Oscar still. Aaron Sorkin would richly deserve a win, and as of now there doesn’t seem to be any other possibilities, aside from maybe Toy Story 3. Nice to see 127 Hours receive recognition here.
Prediction: The Social Network

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Where’s Black Swan? The love for this movie is definitely weak, and Natalie Portman currently seems like the only Oscar possibility for this film. Does Christopher Nolan’s Best Director snub force voters to give him the sympathy vote here, OR, will The King’s Speech grab it and use it as momentum to win Best Picture? Right now, I’m leaning towards the King’s Speech for the win.
Prediction: The King’s Speech

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

I feel like we should have seen The Illusionist’s nomination coming – it just seems like the right kind of film. Other than that, Toy Story 3 is all set for the anticlimactic win, although How To Train Your Dragon would be an amazing alternative.
Prediction: Toy Story 3

BEST ART DIRECTION

Pleasantly surprised to see Harry Potter receive some love here. I think Black Swan and Shutter Island are shocking snubs, and the winner now seems less clear. Could this be the one area where Alice In Wonderland can win – or will The King’s Speech or True Grit take it? As of now – I’m completely in the dark for this category.
Prediction: The King’s Speech

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

To be honest, I still think Black Swan had the best costumes of the year, but clearly the Academy disagrees. This award usually is given to the most flashy wardrobe, so Alice In Wonderland currently seems to be ahead. Then again, they love period pieces here (The King’s Speech, The Young Victoria, The Duchess, Titanic, etc, etc, etc)
Prediction: The King’s Speech

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Predictable nominees. All we have to figure out now is whether or not Roger Deakins is going to win for True Grit, definitely not his finest work, or Wally Pfister will win for Inception. Both are equally deserving and are the only two possible winners I can see at this point. I kind of have a feeling it will go to Deakins, if only because he’s the greatest living cinematographer and has already lost 8 times. On a side-note, I’m somewhat disappointed to see 127 Hours snubbed here.
Prediction: True Grit

BEST EDITING

When I think of the best editing in films last year, Inception is the only film that comes to mind. I’m absolutely stunned at this snub in particular, especially considering films like The King’s Speech took it’s place – a film definitely not full of memorable cuts. If you want to win Best Picture, you NEED a best editing nomination. There’s no way you can win without it – it just doesn’t happen (at least since the 80’s). Therefore, the only Best Picture outcomes I can see are The Fighter, The King’s Speech, or The Social Network.
Prediction: The Social Network

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

I am thrilled beyond WORDS that How To Train Your Dragon was nominated. If you haven’t listened to the score, do it – it’s one of my favorites. I’m equally surprised to see The Social Network nominated – not because it’s inadequate, but because the Academy seems to dislike nominating double composers (otherwise, The Assassination of Jesse James or The Dark Knight would have been nominated, right?) The Social Network seems like the front-runner, but I think Alexandre Desplat is so overdue that the King’s Speech may take the prize in the end. Sorry, Inception.
Prediction: The Social Network

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Prediction: Toy Story 3

BEST SOUND MIXING
Prediction: True Grit

BEST SOUND EDITING
Prediction: Inception

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Prediction: Inception


OTHER THOUGHTS:
-If you doubt the King’s Speech has a large chance at winning Best Picture now, check out the nominees for Best Sound Mixing. If that doesn’t show overall support for the film, then what does? Remember when The Hurt Locker was nominated for best original score? (What score?) This seems to be the same situation.

-127 Hours NOT receiving a single sound nomination is (in my opinion) one of the biggest snubs of the year. Mind-boggling.

-Waiting For Superman snubbed for Best Documentary? Okay then….

-The film with the most nominations wins best Picture 75% of the time. The Social Network wasn’t the most-nominated film. It wasn’t even the second-most nominated film. Just something to think about…

-Black Swan receives a pitiful 5 nominations. I thought this was supposed to be one of the big threats at the Oscars this year? Apparently not... The Kid's Are All Right received 4, one in the Best Picture category no less. Last year, Meryl Streep most likely lost to Sandra Bullock because she was the film's sole nomination. This year, the Bening/Portman match up seems to be on a much more even playing field.

-When was the last time a PG-13 movie won Best Picture? 6 years ago: Million Dollar Baby. (The King's Speech-R. The Social Network-PG-13. The Fighter-R. True Grit-PG-13)

Stay tuned for more predictions as guild awards begin to be awarded in the coming weeks!