Greetings to those faithful readers (are you out there?) and apologies for the nearly year-long hiatus! Have you been to the movies this year? We certainly have, and not to speak for Maureen, but this has been one of the most thrilling, genuinely great years for the cinema in a while. For one reason or another, writing reviews has not been on my list of priorities, but I have been ever-faithful in my dedication to seeing as many new releases as possible....
Which leads us to the forthcoming Oscars, set to air this coming Sunday. Who will win?? Every year has had its fair share of suspense, and while many of the main categories at play are virtual locks, the simple goal of accurately predicting Best Picture remains my most coveted goal (and don't remind me of how difficult this is, we haven't got it right since 2015 when "Birdman" was the logical choice - I will reinforce that Maureen had logically been predicting "The Shape of Water" in 2018, but I jumped off the "Get Out" cliff based on some bitter tea leaves...). Sit down, get some coffee, lets deep dive into this year and recap some of the great movies of 2019:
BEST PICTURE
1. Parasite
2. 1917
3. Jojo Rabbit
4. The Irishman
5. Once Upon a Time... In Hollywood
6. Joker
7. Little Women
8. Marriage Story
9. Ford v Ferrari
Let me preface this entire conversation with an undeniable disadvantage: 1917 & Parasite were my favorite movies of the year by miles and miles. It's not often that one's favorite movies are also the undeniable front-runners for Best Picture (I can't remember a single year), but we need to already count this category as a win. Let me also mention one other fact: I, John, have a bias for Parasite...
There is precedent for a Parasite victory. It got a surprise nomination AND win at the Screen Actor's Guild Award, and the cast received nearly a minute-long standing ovation for simply walking on stage to present their film. The film has also received all the key nominations a Best Picture winner needs: directing, editing, screenplay, the aforementioned SAG Ensemble, DGA & PGA nominations... Where Roma last year certainly turned off voters, and in retrospect the "Green Book" win makes a lot more sense... Parasite could go the distance as the first foreign winner in Oscar history. Perhaps voters will feel compelled to finally take the plunge after a repeat of #OscarsSoWhite and the simple fact that Parasite is a beloved film with deep support in the industry. Where Roma was oftentimes a chore to sit through, Parasite is nearly universally-loved by audiences.
On paper, the logical winner is 1917. Maureen will attest. In fact I wonder if that is the more certain winner. Sam Mende's virtually-flawless film won the Golden Globe, DGA, PGA, and BAFTA Awards. If you know anything, you know that the one-two punch of DGA & PGA is an undeniable sign. DGA's accuracy in predicting Best Picture is a staggering 78%, PGA is 71% (don't worry, I did the math). SAG is a mere 50% accurate. The simple fact that PGA uses the same preferential voting method and still selected 1917 should be even further proof. Maybe the most convincing evidence: that no Colin Firth film nominated for Best Picture has ever lost. Shakespeare in Love. The English Patient. The King's Speech.
Both film's aren't without detractors. 1917, albeit a more technical achievement to its acting, was snubbed across the board by SAG, which used to spell doom for a film's Best Picture chances (we still looked past it and assumed La La Land had it). More recently, it only seems a Best Picture winner needs some acting nominations, not just Ensemble. Both Green Book and The Shape of Water were snubbed for ensemble in the last two years. If 1917 got nothing, what does that mean? Brokeback Mountain, La La Land, Saving Private Ryan all won DGA & PGA and lost Best Picture, and in a majority of cases, the upset came from the SAG Ensemble winner. And while DGA is often the gold standard for predicting Best Picture, it has been incorrect in predicting the top prize in 2019, 2016, 2015, 2013..... This isn't a done deal.
Other films like Once Upon a Time, The Irishman, Joker have all repeatedly proven too divisive, have lost steam, or just aren't logical. The only film on the rise is Jojo Rabbit which has virtually the same nominations as last year's Green Book and has stealthily been winning guilds left and right. In the top 3, I dare say Jojo is bronze medal far off in the distance.
BEST DIRECTOR
1. Sam Mendes (1917)
2. Bong Joon Jo (Parasite)
3. Quentin Tarantino (Once Upon a Time... In Hollywood)
4. Martin Scorsese (The Irishman)
5. Todd Phillips (Joker)
A lot of people assumed voters would want to give Tarantino a directing trophy this year, but there is no denial that directing, like Best Picture, is a 2-way horserace. Sam Mendes is virtually locked to win his second trophy after his 1999 debut for American Beauty. 1917's technical achievement is right in line with the Academy's recent preference for visual effects-heavy films that make you ask "how did they do that?" (Gravity, Life of Pi, The Revenant, Birdman...). What little hope Director Bong had of a victory has shrunk with each new award going to Mendes for a deserved victory. But really though, how did he do that??
BEST ACTOR
1. Joaquin Phoenix (Joker)
2. Adam Driver (Marriage Story)
3. Antonio Banderas (Pain and Glory)
4. Jonathan Pryce (The Two Popes)
5. Leonardo DiCaprio (Once Upon a Time... In Hollywood)
This award feels like it's been locked up for Phoenix ever since the film's premiere last fall. For a career of continually-improving work (I think Phoenix is the finest actor working today now that Daniel Day-Lewis has 'retired'), this feels a little too safe. While I preferred the soul-bearing work of Adam Driver in his second consecutive nomination, he might have to settle for a trophy on his next nomination. My only concern is whether voters want to give the character of the Joker a second Oscar (following Heath Ledger's 2008 win in supporting). After all, up until last year, the Academy had an objective bias against comic book movies. Still, to bet against Phoenix who has swept all the major awards, is simply foolish.
BEST ACTRESS
1. Renee Zelwegger (Judy)
2. Saoirse Ronan (Little Women)
3. Scarlett Johannson (Marriage Story)
4. Cynthia Erivo (Harriet)
5. Charlize Theron (Bombshell)
Another category in which the frontrunner has won literally every possible award. My initial thoughts last fall were that Saoirse Ronan could finally win on her 4th nomination at the ripe old age of 25. She might have to wait. While part of me feels like "Judy" is such a lackluster film, even I can't deny that Zelwegger's return to the big screen is show stopping in every sense of the word and will be an enormously deserved victory (her first win in Lead Actress). Hey, some people could even say "they finally gave Judy Garland an Oscar!" although let's be real, that's just silly.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time... In Hollywood)
2. Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood)
3. Joe Pesci (The Irishman)
4. Al Pacino (The Irishman)
5. Anthony Hopkins (The Two Popes)
This category is flooded with all the major Oscar winners of the early 1990's... All for one. I think it was Katherine Hepburn that said actors always win an Oscar for the wrong movie, and I can't help but feel this sentiment so deeply for Mr Pitt (who is already an Oscar winner for producing 12 Years a Slave... (we got that win right, by the way)). Pitt oozes charm in every scene of his film, but this win will clearly be in recognition of a career, not this performance (I think he still should have won for Moneyball). Pesci was a personal favorite, but the vote splitting between these two icons of The Irishman can't help, especially since neither has been picking up any trophies. There really isn't a foreseeable runner-up, but Tom Hanks has finally been nominated again in a well-deserved turn, and he hasn't missed any nominations the whole way... The good thing about Brad Pitt winning is that his speech will certainly charm our socks right off.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Laura Dern (Marriage Story)
2. Scarlett Johannson (Jojo Rabbit)
3. Florence Pugh (Little Women)
4. Margot Robbie (Bombshell)
5. Kathy Bates (Richard Jewell)
I think this will be a wholly deserving victory for Dern, who is absolutely scene-stealing in her brief role in Marriage Story. Where many thought she wouldn't be as strong a contender following SAG, BAFTA, Critic's Choice, etc, she continues to win. The runner-up (and I think this is actually pretty close) is certainly Johannson as the radiant mother in Jojo. If there's one thing voters love, it's a wonderful mother in a supporting role (well, besides I, Tonya). Johannson is hurt by her double nominations, but this really feels like a prime place to reward the film and the actress, since Renee is so far ahead for Leading Actress. Still, do I have definitive proof that Laura Dern is vulnerable? None at all. Don't bet against her unless you're feeling lucky.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1. Parasite
2. Once Upon a Time... In Hollywood
3. Marriage Story
4. 1917
5. Knives Out
A non-Best Picture nominee isn't winning (sorry Knives Out). The strength of 1917 isn't it's writing (although by all accounts the actual written screenplay is a heartbreaker). Noah Baumbach will have to wait a little more since Marriage Story seems to have fizzled out. A lot of people suspect Quentin Tarantino is a lock for his third Oscar, but I refuse to believe that a voter will look at Parasite and Once and have any doubt as to which is the more original story. There's even precedent for a foreign winner in this category, too. I can't help but see this as a lock.
**I will say that should we see Parasite lose this award, I suspect it's chances at Best Picture would be officially over.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1. Jojo Rabbit
2. Little Women
3. The Irishman
4. Joker
5. The Two Popes
A non-Best Picture nominee isn't winning (sorry Two Popes). The strength of Joker isn't in it's writing... Wait I'm repeating myself. Early thoughts were that The Irishman would be an easy win here, but then the film never really won any awards (as great as I think that film is). Logic (and half a brain) had people believing that Greta Gerwig's adaptation of Little Women would walk away with a victory in lieu of her snub for Best Director. The film's main achievement for many has been the adaptation of such a familiar book into something new and exciting. When's the last time a film's main praise has been in its writing? Still, Jojo Rabbit is curiously picking up a slew of awards (including the BAFTA and Writer's Guild). To be honest I'm not entirely certain why. It's now the safe bet. I want to hold out hope for Gerwig. I think it comes down to which film is more beloved, and to be honest that's been kind of hard to figure out.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
1. 1917
2. The Lighthouse
3. Joker
4. Once Upon a Time... In Hollywood
5. The Irishman
This category is stunningly awful for the inclusion of Once Upon and The Irishman, both respected films but in no way achievements of photography. This is the first time (I think ever) in which 4 films received more than 10 nominations in a single year (1917, Joker, Irishman, Once Upon...). It really might just be that with a shorter Oscar season, voters had less time to see as many films. The inclusion of The Lighthouse is so impressive here, and it's the only other nominee I could see deserving this spot. Where is Parasite? Ford v Ferrari? Little Women? Portrait of a Lady on Fire?
I digress. This is the night's biggest lock. Once one of Oscars biggest losers, Roger Deakins is assured to win his second Oscar in 3 years. When people talk about how great 1917 is, they are referring to Deakins' ghostly camerawork. I would bet anything on it.
BEST FILM EDITING
1. Parasite
2. Ford v Ferrari
3. Jojo Rabbit
4. The Irishman
5. Joker
One of the early indicator's that Tarantino's film wasn't as strong was it's lack of a nomination in this category, one of few a movie generally needs to win Best Picture. No fear for 1917 though, single-shot films (ie, Birdman) have been snubbed here and still won. So what wins? My money is Parasite, which won the Eddie Award (editor's guild) and would follow my belief that the film is on it's way to Best Picture. Generally a film needs at least 3 wins. Ford v Ferrari is also a logical choice, for it's racing sequences and high-octane finale. Then I remembered when we incorrectly assumed Baby Driver would win this category and instead Dunkirk pulled ahead. I think it's easy for people making predictions to assume the "racing" movie will win, but the general voting body of the Academy might just be checking off the film they prefer. Hacksaw Ridge did upset a few years back, though, so even a Jojo Rabbit win wouldn't entirely surprise me. Look out for this category.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
1. 1917
2. Once Upon a Time... In Hollywood
3. Jojo Rabbit
4. Parasite
5. The Irishman
This feels like a relatively safe category to call. I saw 1917 twice, and the second time I was even more enraptured by the never-ending sets and trenches, highlighted even more for the film's single-take appearance. What an accomplishment of art direction - a war zone as far as the eye can see in every direction. A burning town of twists and mazes... An underground bunker close to destruction. This flies in the face of this category's tradition of picking the film with large castles and historical detail. In fact I was prepared to go on this ledge completely on a hunch until BAFTA awarded 1917 the Production Design award and I felt a little more confident. It seems like the runner up would be a highly-detailed recreation of Hollywood in the 1960's. I would hold Parasite to a higher standard, but aside from La La Land I can't think of a recent, modern film winning this award, as impressive as it would be (let me remind you that the entire mansion and slum neighborhood was constructed from scratch).
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
1. Little Women
2. Jojo Rabbit
3. Once Upon a Time... In Hollywood
4. The Irishman
5. Joker
How Joker was nominated is entirely baffling. Besides a cheap red suit, name one other costume in the film you can remember. Go ahead, I'll wait... I think this is actually one of the more difficult categories of the night, since Costumes & Production Design are often curiously won by films that are nominated in both. That would fare well for Jojo, Once, and Irishman. And still, the idea is that the frilly skirts and historical feminine dresses are crack for Oscar voters. That did guide us absolutely nowhere last year in predicting The Favourite over the deserving win by Black Panther. In the end, though, I really don't know what the alternative is. Jojo and it's familiar Nazi suits? Hollywood and it's plethora of leather and gogo boots? Jojo won the guild award and Little Women was snubbed (I know, right?). To be honest, your guess is as good as anyone's.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
1. Joker
2. 1917
3. Little Women
4. Marriage Story
5. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
Usually a Best Picture front-runner can sweep other categories into the mix, which probably got Thomas Newman excited at the prospect of finally winning on his 15th nomination (!!). Curiously, though, the winner all season has been newcomer Hildur Guonadottir and her brooding score for Joker. It would certainly be a deserving victory. I wouldn't be surprised by a Newman victory (and in fact it's my favorite score of the year next to Little Women), but maybe he'll get lucky on his next nomination. You know what they say: "sixteenth's time the charm..."
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
1. Bombshell
2. Joker
3. 1917
4. Judy
5. Maleficent: Mistress of Evil
About time! Finally the category has five nominees as it always deserved. I'll be the first to say that this is a weak year to have 5. I think the logical favorite is Bombshell. Since the film's first trailer, the buzz around Charlize Theron's transformation into Megyn Kelly was overwhelming. People even forgot to talk about John Lithgow's incredible change into Roger Ailes. I can't help but dwell on this tiny knot growing in my stomach when I recollect that movies like Dallas Buyer's Club and Les Miserables managed to win with little more than some cheap rouge and dirty cheeks. I don't know how they won, but I wonder if Joker could pull off that same style of victory. If they are going to pick the "dirty" winner than I would much prefer 1917's attention to period hair and the ever-increasing challenges of trudging through mud and fire. Still, I have to shut off my brain and remind myself that prosthetics and false teeth and fat suits is an easy choice. I'll give you three reasons why: Vice, Darkest Hour, The Iron Lady.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
1. 1917
2. The Lion King
3. Avengers Endgame
4. The Irishman
5. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
As much as I hated The Lion King (my least-favorite movie of the year, no less), I can't deny that the film's visual effects are some of the most stunning images I have ever seen on film. Can voters look past the film's quality and reward an extended demo-reel for photorealism? This category almost always rewards the Best Picture nominee when it's available, and the Irishman's uncanny valley de-aging is certainly not going to pull this one out. Endgame, the biggest film of all time, logically seems safe, but then we realize that here is it's only nomination, and also that the subtle work in First Man managed to win over the film's first half. No modern Marvel film has ever won the award, why start here? What visual effects were there in 1917, you might ask? Beats me. Still, I can't help but think this is a fairly safe win for the film.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
1. “I’m Gonna Love Me Again” (Rocketman)
2. “Stand Up” (Harriet)
3. “Into the Unknown” (Frozen 2)
4. “I’m Standing With You” (Breakthrough)
5. “I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away” (Toy Story 4)
I advise you listen to the five nominees when possible. It's a quick 15 minutes of your life to realize how utterly bad the majority of these nominees are. Diane Warren's submission for Breakthrough (a film I had never heard of, frankly) reeks of the disqualified and brief nomination for the "what movie??" that was Alone Yet Not Alone. Randy Newman's bizarre nomination here is less surprising when you realize that he has been nominate for every Toy Story film (and won for #3). Frozen 2 might have a better shot had it not been snubbed in Animated Feature. Harriet and Cynthia Erivo might have a good shot, but the song itself is a tonal mess that I frankly found unlistenable. Logically, Elton John is set to win another Oscar for his catchy tune from the criminally under-nominated Rocketman. The year's real winner: Glasgow, from a small film called Wild Rose. A stunning song that many people (including myself) had assumed would win in a cake walk. Take a listen.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
1. Klaus
2. Toy Story 4
3. I Lost My Body
4. Missing Link
5. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
From the beginning of this race and even before nominations, I knew that the Academy dislikes sequels. In fact out of the 18 nominees in this category, only Toy Story 4 was a sequel (that's a mere 5%). I frequent the movie website goldderby.com and regularly make predictions for Oscars and such. In place of Dragon, I was safely assuming Frozen 2 would have made it. Otherwise, these were my predicted nominees. Logic says Toy Story has this, but then you factor in its Golden Globe loss (to Missing Link), it's Annie Award (animation guild) loss to Klaus (in a rare sweep), and the simple fact that almost everyone can conclude that Toy Story 4 is not as good as Toy Story 3. Voters oftentimes like to pick winners with a unique style, and Klaus's gorgeous 2D animation (I checked, it's not computer generation in the traditional sense), plus its availability on Netflix, plus it's wit an charm, I think this is an easy race to call. I would bet on the amazing I Lost My Body if there was any hint that voters don't view this category as "Best Kid's Film."Unfortunately, this is pretty much just that.
BEST SOUND EDITING
1. 1917
2. Ford v Ferrari
3. Joker
4. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
5. Star Wars: The Rise of SkyWalker
Is anyone else still deeply disturbed by last year's sound sweep for Bohemian Rhapsody? (or the simple fact that Rhapsody walked away with more Oscars than any film all year.... I shudder) It's simply foolish to try and determine whether voters will split the sound categories or pick one film across the board. Dunkirk. Mad Max. Bohemian. Gravity. They all won both. The rare chance of a split is sometimes a surprise (Arrival for Mixing, Hacksaw Ridge for Editing for one). 1917 feels so safe, even in the face of the sound-heavy revving in Ford. War films generally fare better anyways.
BEST SOUND MIXING
1. 1917
2. Ford v Ferrari
3. Ad Astra
4. Joker
5. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
See above. I rest my case.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
1. American Factory
2. For Sama
3. Honeyland
4. The Cave
5. The Edge of Democracy
I have admittedly only seen 1 (American Factory) which is already being heralded as the front-runner for a variety of reasons: Netflix, the Obama's production company, timely story about the American economy, etc. Yet again, the front-runner was snubbed (this year it was Apollo 11), so the support for many of these films is yet untested. Honeyland is the first documentary also nominated in International Film, so who knows whether that means more support. For Sama might have the emotional punch that will tickle voters' the right way. I'm not going to guess, but this is my least confident of all 24 categories.
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
1. Parasite
2. Pain and Glory
3. Honeyland
4. Les Miserables
5. Corpus Christi
Second biggest lock of the night. Are we even kidding here?
BEST ANIMATED SHORT
1. Hair Love
2. Kitbull
3. Memorable
4. Daughter
5. Sister
The third consecutive year I have seen all the short nominees, and the third consecutive year I have felt so frustrated in determining the winner. Out of all categories, the shorts have the least amount of precursors, relying solely on personal emotion and Academy trends. One trend is that if there's a cute animal, chances are the film will win. Kitbull certainly hits it out of the park - a crudely animated film about a friendship between a fighter dog and an adorable black cat. However, another trend is to reward the film with the most 'celebrity' behind it. That bodes well for Hair Love, a charming film about a father and daughter, created by the likes of Issa Rae, Jordan Peele, and Gabourey Sidibe. Were I a voter, Kitbull or Memorable would certainly get my support, Memorable being a stop-motion film about the effects of Alzheimer's on a painter - beautifully captured through varying styles of impressionist art. If there's one lesson I've learned, though, it's a tough choice to pick your favorites here.
BEST DOCUMENTARY: SHORT SUBJECT
1. Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You're A Girl)
2. In the Absence
3. St. Louis Superman
4. Life Overtakes Me
5. Walk Run Cha-Cha
Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone harkens back to other winning titles like Period End of Sentence, The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life, and Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405. I mean, come on, do voters even care, or are they picking the film with the most eye-catching title? Still, a heartwarming documentary about kids learning to skate in Syria just sounds like a winner on paper already. Let's just go with it.
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
1. The Neighbors’ Window
2. Brotherhood
3. Nefta Football Club
4. Saria
5. A Sister
My money is on The Neighbors' Window, a slick story with an actual beginning, middle, and end. Not too dark, but thoroughly entertaining. Oh, it's also the only film in English (sometimes look for the odd-film out, and the Academy famously loves to pick American among a group of foreigners). My personal opinion is that Brotherhood is the most accomplished of these 5, a beautifully-shot film anchored by a stunning performance (the father) that has better cinematography than at least 3 of the feature nominees. However, I imagine that it's dark nature, grouped alongside Saria (a messy narrative with a lopsided ending) and A Sister (one of my favorites but certainly too short and narrowly-constructed to win) might all get jumbled up and cancel each other. Look out for Nefta Football Club, since shorts starring kids usually win. I only rank it so low because the film (which is brief) is ultimately a long-running gag with a weak punchline. I think Oscar voters want to be perceived as having more taste.
