Final Oscar Predictions

We are slowly arriving at the Academy Awards, and with precursor awards announced, we have as clear a chance as possible in terms of predicting the winners. In one of the tightest races in memory, many categories are still up in the air - and we encounter some nail biter situations right up to Oscar night, itself. Academy members have just begun voting this past week, so the recent results of the BAFTA's as well as certain guild awards will definitely weigh in on their picks. Without further ado, though, our predictions:



BEST PICTURE

From out of nowhere comes 'Argo,' the film on an unstoppable journey to an undeniable Best Picture victory (so momentous due to it's lack of Best Director nomination). It's been an interesting race, but this one seems all locked up. It's funny to think that Affleck has already won for Original Screenplay (Good Will Hunting), and with his Producing win for 'Argo,' he will have a perfect Oscar record.

1. Argo
2. Lincoln
3. Life of Pi
4. Amour
5. Silver Linings Playbook
6. Beasts of the Southern Wild
7. Les Miserables
8. Zero Dark Thirty
9. Django Unchained


BEST DIRECTOR

The category that is truly impossible to call for certain. Ben Affleck should have won, but now it's anyone's guess. Spielberg seems like the safe bet: his film leads in terms of nominations, he is the most respected filmmaker of our time, 'Lincoln' demonstrates a return to form... Was this the best-directed film of the year, then? Maybe, but with this award now understood to be 'second-best-director-after-Ben-Affleck,' maybe voters will recognize the strong style and visual mastery Ang Lee brought to his own little project and venture in another direction, entirely. There are really no indicators to say either Spielberg or Lee is a 'front runner.' (but only these two received DGA nominations, so they are the only feasible winners) Either is a safe and derserving bet.

1. Life of Pi (Lee)
2. Lincoln (Spielberg)
3. Silver Linings Playbook (O. Russell)
4. Amour (Haneke)
5. Beasts of the Southern Wild (Zeitlin)


BEST ACTOR

Locked and loaded. Interestingly, the last time a movie won Best Picture without a Directing nomination it was 'Driving Miss Daisy' in 1989, and Daniel Day-Lewis took to the podium that night, too. Expect the same. No doubt...

1. Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln)
2. Joaquin Phoenix (The Master)
3. Hugh Jackman (Les Miserables)
4. Denzel Washington (Flight)
5. Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook)


BEST ACTRESS

... that same year when 'Driving Miss Daisy' won Best Picture and Day-Lewis won Actor, he shared the top award with Jessica Tandy, the oldest nominee and oldest winner at the time. This year, Emmanuelle Riva breaks the record, and fresh off her BAFTA win, don't be too surprised if history starts to repeat itself. (Not to mention Oscar night is her 86th Birthday). I realize we are sidestepping the clear front-runner that is Lawrence, but this feels like a win that would both honor 'Amour' as a film and create Oscar magic with Jean Dujardin presenting his fellow French actor a statue of her own... If you want to play safe, bet on Lawrence, but we think voters will recognize a great veteran actress in a truly challenging role.

1. Emmanuelle Riva (Amour)
2. Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook)
3. Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty)
4. Quvenzhane Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild)
5. Naomi Watts (The Impossible)


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Yawn, Anne Hathaway is all set to go, with virtually no competition in her way. Let's hope she doesn't give another cringe-worthy speech. Anyone else winning would definitely be the 'jaw-dropping' moment of the night.

1. Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables)
2. Sally Field (Lincoln)
3. Amy Adams (The Master)
4. Helen Hunt (The Sessions)
5. Jacki Weaver (Silver Linings Playbook)


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

This is the one category of the night where there is no 'safe' bet, as any of the five could technically win and it woudn't even phase us. Perhaps its because all nominees are previous Oscar winners, and there hasn't been a front runner all season. Hoffman won the Critics, Jones won SAG, Waltz won BAFTA.... And the Golden Globe. Perhaps this is telling, especially considering the fact that Waltz has never lost a major televised award... Ever... His absence from a SAG nomination could be because he was pushing for lead, and there was simply no room for his nomination. Now in supporting (and with arguably the lead role of his film), he could push through. (Also, considering 9 of the past 10 Supporting winners at the Globe went on to win the Oscar. 5 of the past 6 BAFTA winners...) Robert De Niro has gained a lot of traction recently, and we had him ranked #1 up until now. However, considering the fact that he hasn't won a single award this year (not even an obscure film critics group from northern Idaho), it's hard to look at this race with an unbiased lens and still give our total support to De Niro, even though he's wholly deserving. Picking Waltz as #1 is not saying he's going to win. I would say anyone (except Arkin, though he's in the Best Picture winner) has a shot. It's just perhaps the safest bet looking solely at the numbers.

1. Christoph Waltz (Django Unchained)
2. Robert De Niro (Silver Linings Playbook)
3. Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln)
4. Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master)
5. Alan Arkin (Argo)


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Statistically speaking, this award usually goes to the Best Picture nominee (with a few exceptions), so that rules out 'Flight' and 'Moonrise Kingdom's' sole (but worthy) nomination. Assuming the backlash for 'Zero Dark' hasn't subsided, this leaves two incredibly different nominees. Tarantino's ode to the blaxploitation/western genre and Michael Haneke's delicate story of aging lovers. 'Django' has been collecting writing awards left and right, but this is far from his best work (and not without its own controversy surrounding the frequent use of the 'N' word), and Haneke's film received more love in terms of nominations, anyways. (Though only a handful of foreign films have ever won a writing award). This is an absolute toss up between the two.

1. Amour
2. Django Unchained
3. Moonrise Kingdom
4. Zero Dark Thirty
5. Flight


BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

'Lincoln' has been pushed aside in favor of 'Argo,' which recently won the Scripter's Award - a telling sign. Not to mention 'Argo' completing a guild sweep with it's WGA win. Even though 'Lincoln' was the predicted front runner the entirety of the season and 'Argo's' strength wasn't the praise for its screenplay, the surge of support on top of it's recent win should cement its victory in this category. (This keeps in step with the past 40 years of Oscar illustrating a movie CAN'T win Best Picture without at least one additional 'top' Oscar: Directing, Acting, or Screenplay)

1. Argo
2. Lincoln
3. Silver Linings Playbook
4. Life of Pi
5. Beasts of the Southern Wild


BEST ANIMATED FILM

Some think Pixar has the edge, and they could be right, 'Brave' is a very traditional & safe choice. However, 'Wreck-It Ralph' has been building lots of momentum in the past few weeks. Tim Burton will have to continue to wait for his first Oscar....

1. Wreck-It Ralph
2. Brave
3. Frankenweenie
4. ParaNorman
5. The Pirates! Band of Misfits


BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

If you get a Best Picture/Best Director nomination as a foreign film, you will surely win.

1. Amour
2. A Royal Affair
3. No
4. War Witch
5. Kon-Tiki



BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

As 'due' as Roger Deakins is, 'Life of Pi' fits the bill for what the Academy considers 'good' cinematography: a seamless blending of visual effects and traditional photography with exotic settings and lush colors. Look no further than past winners (Hugo, Inception, Avatar) to see the Academy's tendencies. 'Skyfall' DID win the ASC Award (American Society of Cinematographers), but in the past few years they have been right maybe half of the time. Deakins perhaps has the best work on the list, but will voters be easily swayed over the flashy work in 'Life of Pi?' Most likely.

1. Life of Pi
2. Skyfall
3. Lincoln
4. Anna Karenina
5. Django Unchained


BEST EDITING

We have seen upsets in the past (Girl With the Dragon Tattoo), but 'Argo' seems locked to take this award in the film's only assured victory outside of Best Picture.

1. Argo
2. Zero Dark Thirty
3. Life of Pi
4. Lincoln
5. Silver Linings Playbook


BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

'Anna Karenina' won the Guild Award, as did 'Life of Pi.' Some may argue a case for 'Lincoln' or 'Les Miserables,' but there hasn't been a strong showing for any of these films yet. Historical movies (ie Lincoln, Les Miserables) tend to do well, but then again so have CGI-driven films (Avatar, Hugo) and the more theatrical (Alice In Wonderland, Moulin Rouge!).  When in doubt, though, go with the Historical Guild Award.

1. Anna Karenina
2. Life of Pi
3. Les Miserables
4. Lincoln
5. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey


BEST COSTUME DESIGN

The bigger the better, and in this category there is one clear and deserved winner. Unless voters feel the need to give 'Mirror Mirror's' designer a posthumous award. Either film is completely deserving.

1. Anna Karenina
2. Mirror Mirror
3. Lincoln
4. Les Miserables
5. Snow White and the Huntsman


BEST MAKEUP/HAIRSTYLING

The newly-named category usually awards the biggest and most innovative. It doesn't hurt that 'The Lord of the Rings' team has yet to lose this award when nominated. As we've seen in the past (Albert Nobbs, Cinderella Man, Master & Commander), dirt and bruises are okay with scoring nominations, but the Academy prefers noticeable transformations to win. Sorry, 'Les Miserables.'

1. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
2. Les Miserables
3. Hitchcock


BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Hmm... Who will win. Thomas Newman (Skyfall) is overdue, 'Life of Pi' is the alleged front-runner, John Williams receives his millionth nomination but is back in top form. This year? I'd say we're going to see the major 'Argo' love continue. On top of that, Alexandre Desplat will finally win his long-awaited Oscar.

1. Argo
2. Life of Pi
3. Skyfall
4. Lincoln
5. Anna Karenina


BEST ORIGINAL SONG

After watching the Golden Globes, who doesn't want to see Adele holding an Oscar and giving another heartfelt and hilarous speech? Hers is the only song people have been talking about all year, and for good reason. It stands head and shoulders above its fellow nominees.

1. 'Skyfall' (Skyfall)
2. 'Everybody Needs a Friend' (Ted)
3. 'Pi's Lullaby' (Life of Pi)
4. 'Suddenly' (Les Miserables)
5. 'Before My Time' (Chasing Ice)


BEST SOUND MIXING

The past few years have seen the same film winning both sound awards (Hugo, Inception, The Hurt Locker) and this year the films to receive both nominations are 'Argo,' 'Life of Pi,' and 'Skyfall.' This is not to say one of these films will win both, BUT there was one film this year that stood out for its technical achievements, one that I don't think people would be able to ignore (even in favor or Argo). This category generally fares well with musicals, though, and with 'Les Miserables' famously recording all singing live, that might be something too good to pass up for the Academy.

1. Les Miserables
2. Life of Pi
3. Argo
4. Skyfall
5. Lincoln


BEST SOUND EDITING

Sound editing refers to the actual creation of the soundscape in a film, the feel and tone throughout the story, original sound effects, etc. From an epic shipwreck to an island of meerkats, 'Life of Pi' again seems like the likely choice.

1. Life of Pi
2. Argo
3. Skyfall
4. Zero Dark Thirty
5. Django Unchained


BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

The rule is: if there is a Best Picture nominee in the category, it always wins. Put all your chips on 'Life of Pi' here.

1. Life of Pi
2. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
3. Prometheus
4. The Avengers
5. Snow White and the Huntsman


BEST DOCUMENTARY

Here is a category where the Academy sometimes throws a curveball, but for now, there seems to be an apparent frontrunner - who knows for sure? Perhaps an edgy choice like 'How To Survive a Plague' could be perfect Oscar bait. This is an interesting category if only for the fact that all Academy members were sent screeners of the nominees, and for the first time all voters can choose their favorites in this category. Will this be a sign of an upset, or will the general consensus be to go with the most popular choice?

1. Searching for Sugar Man
2. How To Survive a Plague
3. The Invisible War
4. 5 Broken Cameras
5. The Gatekeepers


BEST DOCUMENTARY, SHORT SUBJECT

1. Open Heart
2. Inocente
3. Mondays at Racine
4. King's Point
5. Redemption


BEST SHORT FILM, ANIMATED

1. Head Over Heels
2. Adam and Dog
3. Paperman
4. Fresh Guacamole
5. Maggie Simpson in 'The Longest Daycare'


BEST SHORT FILM, LIVE ACTION

1. Curfew
2. Death of a Shadow
3. Henry
4. Asad
5. Buzkashi Boys

The Master (Jo****1/2)

Paul Thomas Anderson has quickly become one of the premiere filmmakers of our time. His films are not only filled with striking imagery, they are also filled with potent ideas, and words, and characters. From There Will Be Blood and now to The Master, Anderson continually challenges his audience to follow increasingly disturbed characters and concepts.

Following Freddie Quell (Joaquin Phoenix), a drifter, drunk, and degenerate, the story stumbles onto a group of believers, led by the 'Master,' Lancaster Dodd, a man who is both a thinker, philosopher, and founder of a new religious movement: The Cause. Quell is clearly an ill fit for the group. Consumed by sexual desires and his need for liquor, Dodd sees something in him, a spark of curiosity, sending them both down a rabbit hole of discovery and doubt.

The film has raised controversy as it relates to Scientology, whether or not the film is based on the religion is up to the viewer. Perhaps that controversy is why The Master missed out on so many key Oscar nominations. It was simply too difficult a film for Hollywood to embrace.

Luckily, they did not forget the key players. Joaquin Phoenix, in a triumphant return to films, is simply out of body in his performance. There is quite simply no better commitment to acting on screen this year, and if the Oscars have any justice to them at all, Phoenix would walk away with Best Actor easily. Hoffman, too, is in top form. In what is arguably the film's second leading role, he was nominated instead for Best Supporting Actor - a wholly deserved nomination. And his wife, played by Amy Adams, also receiving a Supporting Actress nomination (her 4th). Here we see Adams so much more subdued than her previous roles: committed, collected, unsettling.

And such striking photography, too. Why this film missed a Cinematography nomination is beyond me. Shot on actual film (what a shock) - the compositions Anderson finds with his DP is truly the best work of the year.

What more can I say? This is a film that will not have a wide acceptance among people, as it has already proved. It is challenging, slow-paced, disturbing, and almost always brilliant. In 50 years from now, The Master may very well be remembered as the masterpiece The Oscars forgot...

(Awards potential: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor (Phoenix), Best Actor (Hoffman), Best Supporting Actress (Adams), Best Original Screenplay, Best Editing, Best Cinematography, Best Art Direction, Best Original Score)