Official 96th Oscar Predictiions

 

 

Time for our yearly check-in. I hope you've been going to the movies! While not my favorite year for cinema, there are undoubtedly some incredibly strong pictures this year, and several that I know I will be rewatching for years to come. It's most interesting to me to view this Oscars season as a reflection of another election year. Those Best Picture winners going back (Parasite, Spotlight, The Artist,...) don't always reflect the mood of the year, but to see a movie like Oppenheimer succeed when the very nature of politics seems destined to undue so much in this country, it's almost like a predetermined doom to award such an ultimately grim movie as the highlight of this year. Eerie foreshadowing, perhaps... It's fun that a big-budget biopic is finally poised to take the top prize again. It feels like Patton or Ghandi, movies that we don't really see anymore on such a grand scale - yet still current through the lens of 2023. So many nail-biters yet again this year, and it seems like Best Actress is forever doomed to remain the most up in the air category of the year. I love the suspense! Here we go:

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BEST PICTURE

I think there are 3 movies here that are the best of the year (Holdovers, Zone of Interest, Oppenheimer), and it's so amazing to think my top 3 are also nominated for Best Picture. While Oppenheimer ultimately falls in the lowest rank of this grouping, it's win will nonetheless be a wonderful thing to witness. This is an unforgiving movie that both challenges and rewards its viewers. A 3-hour drama set mostly in tiny rooms - but what a wonderful theatrical experience that I know so many voters would have enjoyed as well. The win feels all but assured. It's anyone's guess what's even in second place! 

1. Oppenheimer
2. Anatomy of a Fall
3. Poor Things
4. Barbie
5. The Holdovers
6. American Fiction 
7. The Zone of Interest
8. Killers of the Flower Moon
9. Maestro
10. Past Lives 

 

BEST DIRECTOR

Christopher Nolan has arguably been one of the most overlooked directors in this category (his only nomination prior to this was for (of all things) Dunkirk). This is perhaps his best movie so far - so mature and yet quintessentially engaging in a way that only Nolan has a knack for. Our remaining nominees are so far behind it's hard to know who's in second, but I would wager it's Justine Triet. Her film was arguably the second-most talked about movie of these nominees. 

1. Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer)
2. Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall)
3. Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest)
4. Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things)
5. Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon) 
   

BEST ACTOR

This category has been filled with some grisly choices recently (it's hard to even fathom 'The Whale' is a multiple-time Oscar winner), but there's buzz that a very subdued, focused performance might ultimately win in Cillian Murphy. He's collected BAFTA, SAG, and Golden Globe on his way to the trophy. I find it a curious performance to sweep so easily to a victory. I hold it all to the strength of the film as a whole. Giamatti is a close second (and my preferred choice). Cooper is a joke-and ultimately what a waste of a nomination.

1. Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer)
2. Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers)
3. Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)
4. Bradley Cooper (Maestro)
5. Colman Domingo (Rustin)

BEST ACTRESS

This has been such a nail-biter category year after year (Michelle Yeoh, Jessica Chastain, Frances McDormand, Olivia Colman,...) and we are set for what I see as a 3-way race. SAG went to Lily Gladstone. BAFTA for Emma Stone. The two each won the Golden Globe. Well? I really see arguments for each. Lily would be a momentous winner as the first Native American victor, and she's boosted by the peer support as evidenced by SAG. Emma is the young starlet-turned-producer. She carries her film single-handedly, and it's the brave sort of showstopping role that would be undeniable here. I see fit to throw myself off this cliff on the off-chance I'm right, but Anatomy of a Fall has been buzzing like crazy, and arguably this could be one of the closest races in history. All Sandra Huller needs to win is a razor thin 34% of the votes and the trophy is hers. It's unlikely, yes, but I'm feeling like a risk-taker. Should she lose - I suspect Lily Gladstone is the likely winner. No, I think Emma Stone is more likely.... No-

1. Sandra Huller (Anatomy of a Fall)
2. Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon)
3. Emma Stone (Poor Things)
4. Annette Bening (Nyad)
5. Carey Mulligan (Maestro)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Once my favorite category this year, but the snub of some great work, notably Charles Melton in May December, turned me against it a little. While it's great that Robert Downey Jr is finally on his way to his first Oscar, I still find it curious that this is the performance that has swept its way so easily to an Oscar. I still favor Mark Ruffalo's absolutely delicious performance - maybe my favorite of the year. This is an easy call. 

1. Robert Downey, Jr (Oppenheimer)
2. Ryan Gosling (Barbie)
3. Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things)
4. Robert DeNiro (Killers of the Flower Moon)
5. Sterling K Brown (American Fiction)

 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Almost baffling to me that this performance has truly lost not a single award at any stage. Some say it's the most-awarded performance in history (technically speaking). Da'Vine Joy Randolph is lovely, and ultimately I do think I might pick her of this line up. There were plenty of snubs (where is Julianne Moore in May December??), but this is the easiest race to call of the night - I promise. I just wish this wasn't The Holdovers only win.

1. Da'Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers) 
2. Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer)
3. Jodie Foster (Nyad)
4. America Ferrera (Barbie)
5. Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple)

 

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

It's so curious that an Alexander Payne film would lose here, given the frequency of his wins in the past (though technically he didn't even write this movie). Ultimately, another film pulled ahead, and the courtroom mystery of Anatomy of a Fall ultimately is proving to be too good to pass up. I love to see foreign-language films win these categories!

1. Anatomy of a Fall
2. The Holdovers
3. Past Lives
4. Maestro
5. May December  

 

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

This is a messy category (Barbie is adapted from what, a plastic doll?) and the clear winner here is a steamroller. American Fiction is a curious choice for me (it wasn't my favorite film), but the occasional lone screenplay win oftentimes happens and it makes sense when they do. It won the BAFTA on its only nomination, after all. There's a nagging sense in my head that they might just still go for Oppenheimer in a big sweep (after all, screenplays oftentimes go along with Best Picture). It just hasn't won any awards to justify it as a winner.  

1. American Fiction
2. Oppenheimer
3. Poor Things
4. Barbie
5. The Zone of Interest

 

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

This is the classic duel of 2 movies of equal prowess: Barbie & Poor Things. It feels like almost every year, a couple movies face off in this category alongside Costumes. Do you split the votes? Does one win both? I find for the sake of odds, it's best to go with a sweep mentality - and how could anyone deny the utterly boggling sets of Poor Things - a movie set in the yester-year European setting but also perhaps taking place 1,000 years in the future? Barbie had stunning work - but even I wonder if a film can win with only half its runtime committed to beautiful sets (nothing in the human world was really that remarkable). 

1. Poor Things
2. Barbie
3. Killers of the Flower Moon
4. Oppenheimer
5. Napoleon 

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Likewise, the costumes in Poor Things were something I'd never seen before. So intricate and stunning - I was imagining next Halloween the number of choices one would have as Bella Baxter. Seems silly to support it so certainly with Barbie's accurate recreations right there. This does feel closer than Production Design to me, but I really think that overall, the greater achievement is clear. 

1. Poor Things
2. Barbie
3. Killers of the Flower Moon
4. Napoleon
5. Oppenheimer

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

In retrospect, Oppenheimer's biggest strength isn't its photography, but it's certainly very assured work, and the sweep of such a big movie is going to pull this one into the winner's circle. I think we'll look back on this year and think it's weird that Poor Things wasn't rewarded for such a unique point of view. 

1. Oppenheimer
2. Poor Things
3. Killers of the Flower Moon
4. Maestro
5. El Conde

 

BEST EDITING

Easy win here. Nothing is even close out of the remaining four films. 

1. Oppenheimer
2. Anatomy of a Fall
3. Killers of the Flower Moon
4. Poor Things
5. The Holdovers

 

BEST SOUND

There's debate that Zone of Interest's unique soundscape could pull it to victory, but I don't think the film about the atomic bomb (and uses sound to the most extraordinary effect) will lose on this one - even though it is essentially a courtroom drama. 

1. Oppenheimer
2. The Zone of Interest
3. Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning Pt 1
4. The Creator
5. Maestro

 

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

This is the most difficult category of the night. No Best Picture nominee in the bunch, and frankly no film here really feels like it was in the running. Therefore, I don't think they will pick something like Napoleon - why reward something so few people saw? Godzilla seems likely, but that all changes when you think they've never nominated the monster before - why start rewarding him now? The Creator, a multiple nominee this year in sound (a frequent crossover with visual effects) feels then like the boring, but safe choice. 

1. The Creator
2. Godzilla Minus One
3. Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning Pt 1
4. Napoleon
5. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING 

Oh man. What to do. I'm seeing this through two lenses - the first being the 'Oscar-nominated lead' makeup winner. That's The Whale, Darkest Hour, Eyes of Tammy Faye, The Iron Lady, etc... Then there's the 'quirkly ensemble' makeup winner. I'm thinking Grand Budapest Hotel, Suicide Squad, Mad Max: Fury Road, etc. Maestro seems like the stronger choice in that Bradley Cooper's transformation was truly astounding - but he's far from winning the Oscar. Do voters feel the need to reward that film when they clearly have other favorites? Poor Things has a lot more characters in makeup, and the hairstyling (which they usually ignore in this category anyways) is out of this world. In the end, who's to say?

1. Maestro
2. Poor Things
3. Society of the Snow
4. Oppenheimer
5. Golda

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Boom. Done. 

1. Oppenheimer
2. Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Poor Things
4. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
5. American Fiction 

 

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

It seems hard to imagine anyone but Billie Eilish on stage winning her second Oscar. The last time a song won the Oscar and Song of the Year at the Grammys was My Heart Will Go On from Titanic. That's good company to be in.

1. What Was I Made For (Barbie)
2. I'm Just Ken (Barbie)
3. Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People) (Killers of the Flower Moon)
4. The Fire Inside (Flamin' Hot)
5. It Never Went Away (American Symphony)

 

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

If Anatomy of a Fall was here, it might have been a suspenseful race, but it's not suspenseful anymore. 

1. The Zone of Interest
2. Society of the Snow
3. Perfect Days
4. Io capitano
5. The Teacher's Lounge

 

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. 20 Days in Mariupol 
2. Four Daughters
3. The Eternal Memory
4. Bobi Wine: The People's President
5. To Kill A Tiger

 

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1. The ABCs of Book Banning
2. The Last Repair Shop
3. Nai Nai and Wai Po
4. The Barber of Little Rock
5. Island In Between 

 

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1. The Boy and the Heron
2. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-verse 
3. Elemental
4. Nimona
5. Robot Dreams

 

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

1. War Is Over: Inspired by the Music of John and Yoko
2. Letter to a Pig
3. Ninety-Five Senses
4. Pachyderme
5. Our Uniform

 

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT 

1. Red, White, and Blue
2. The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar
3. Knight of Fortune
4. The After
5. Invincible