Let's begin by simply stating: this is a drab year for quality movies. Sorry, that's this blogger's humble opinion. One year after one of the most exciting Oscar races in memory (Argo, Lincoln, Life of Pi, Silver Linings Playbook, Zero Dark Thirty, Django Unchained, The Master, etc, etc, etc), we're having trouble naming more than a couple films that could theoretically WIN the big prize: Best Picture. As of now, and based on our recent SAG Nominations/ Golden Globe Nominations/ Critics' Choice Nominations, we have but one possible winner: 12 Years A Slave. Let's discuss this logic.
BEST PICTURE
With Golden Globe nominations, we saw an interesting split between the Comedy/Drama categories. In Best Picture, we had the following nominees: 12 Years a Slave, Gravity, Captain Philips, Rush, & Philomena. Comedy saw the following hilarious films nominated: Her, American Hustle, Inside Llewyn Davis, The Wolf of Wall Street, and Nebraska. As little as the Globes matter anymore (and as irrelevant, too), we did see some trends with the SAG Best Ensemble nominees (the Best Picture equivalent for actors: The Butler, 12 Years a Slave, Dallas Buyers Club, August Osage County, and American Hustle) and the Critics Choice nominees (American Hustle, Captain Philips, Dallas Buyers Club, Gravity, Her, Inside Llewyn Davis, Nebraska, Saving Mr Banks, 12 Years a Slave, The Wolf of Wall Street). Ignoring the overwhelming mess of trying to interpret, there are a few basic rules with gauging Oscar potential: Getting a nomination from all 3 is almost crucial (12 Years A Slave & American Hustle), a SAG Ensemble Nomination is required to win Best Picture, and generally the film with the most cast members nominated wins (The Butler leads with 15, followed by 12 Years A Slave at 13). Meaning?: 12 Years A Slave is our front-runner, and American Hustle is not far behind. Sorry Gravity....
Locked and loaded for a nomination:
1. 12 Years A Slave
2. American Hustle
3. Gravity
4. Nebraska
5. Inside Llweyn Davis
6. Captain Phillips
Most likely:
7. Wolf of Wall Street
8. Her
It Could Happen:
9. Dallas Buyers Club
10. Saving Mr Banks
11. Philomena
12. Rush
BEST ACTOR
When dealing with actors, SAG nominations (Screen Actors Guild) are your best bet. Not only does it gauge the overall tone of the voters, but it shows where the support is amongst the Oscar's biggest group of voters: actors. Our nominees are Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave), Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club), Bruce Dern (Nebraska), Tom Hanks (Captain Phillips), and Forrest Whitaker (The Butler). Save for Whitaker, who may easily get bumped off for Robert Redford in All Is Lost, this has been the consistent lineup all season. McConaughey will finally break into the 'big boy club' by scoring his first nomination (ala Bradley Cooper last year), Tom Hanks will receive his first nomination since 2000, and Best Picture will most likely secure a win for its main actor (think The Artist, The King's Speech, No Country for Old Men, Million Dollar Baby, Gladiator, etc). It helps to star in a critically-acclaimed movie when you're looking for Oscar gold. Expect to see Chiwetel Ejiofor as the front runner for the rest of the race.
Locked and loaded:
1. Chiwetel Ejiofor
2. Bruce Dern
3. Matthew McConaughey
4. Tom Hanks
Battling for the last spot:
5. Robert Redford
6. Forrest Whitaker
7. Leonardo DiCaprio
8. Christian Bale
BEST ACTRESS
Then again, sometimes you don't need an Oscar juggernaut to push you through to an Oscar, all you need is to be a female starring in a Woody Allen movie. SAG nominated Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine), Sandra Bullock (Gravity), Meryl Streep (August Osage County), Emma Thompson (Saving Mr Banks), and Judi Dench (Philomena). That's a strong lineup, one that will most likely secure all ladies Oscar nominations, too. Outside of Blanchett and Dench, each woman has already won Best Actress, and ALL have won Oscars before. Bullock is expected to be the biggest threat to Blanchett's win here, but being in a science fiction film doesn't fare well for Oscar voters (remember the last time someone in a science fiction film won an Oscar? Me neither...), nor does Bullock's recent win (which some found undeserving to boot). Cate Blanchett stands out from the pack.
Locked and loaded:
1. Cate Blanchett
2. Sandra Bullock
3. Meryl Streep
4. Judi Dench
5. Emma Thompson
It could happen:
6. ..... cough.... ?
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Some surprises here, with SAG nominating Barkhad Abdi (Captain Philips), Daniel Bruhl (Rush), Michael Fassbender (12 Years a Slave), Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club), and James Gandolfini (posthumously, for Enough Said). Replace Gandolfini with Bradley Cooper in American Hustle and you have the Golden Globe lineup. Include both and you have Critics Choice. Who will miss a nomination on Oscar morning? Abdi and Bruhl were surprises to say the least, but they were consistently nominated across the board. Are they in Oscar lineup for sure?? It's no guarantee. Who can say for sure at this point. All we know is that Fassbender and Leto will have to duke it out for the title. Interestingly, both play somewhat historical characters in an American historical film, one a villain, and one a hero. Supporting Actor loves themselves some villains at the Oscars (No Country for Old Men, Inglourious Basterds, Dark Knight...) so perhaps Fassbender. Then again, the Academy has yet to prove their love for him, and he plays a very unsettling role. As of now it looks like Jared Leto is a few paces ahead (if only because of other critics awards he has already picked up).
Locked and loaded:
1. Jared Leto
2. Michael Fassbender
Most likely:
3. Barkhad Abdi
4. Daniel Bruhl
Battling for #5:
5. James Gandolfini
6. Bradley Cooper
7. Tom Hanks (Saving Mr Banks)
8. Will Forte (Nebraska)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Julia Roberts (August Osage County), Lupita Nyong'o (12 Years a Slave), Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle), June Squibb (Nebraska), Oprah Winfrey (The Butler). Those are our SAG nominees. Sally Hawkins (Blue Jasmine) bumped Oprah out in a shocker at the Globes, and Critics nominated all our SAG ladies on top of the Scarlett Johansson for Her. Wow. Will Oprah make the final cut? Most likely. Will she win? No. Who are the front-runners? Tough call. Lupita Nyong'o is powerful in 12 Years a Slave and has a powerful debut. June Squibb is a veteran playing a colorful character in a great movie that has little chance of winning other awards. For now, bet on Lupita, but June stands in the shadows of great older women who have won this category in the past.
Locked and loaded:
1. Lupita Nyong'o
2. June Squibb
3. Jennifer Lawrence
Most likely:
4. Oprah Winfrey
5. Julia Roberts
It could happen:
6. Sally Hawkins
7. Scarlett Johansson (well, maybe this one can't...)
BEST DIRECTOR
Globes nominated 12 Years A Slave, Gravity, Captain Phillips, American Hustle, and Nebraska. We won't have a good grasp of this category until DGA nominations, although last year, that only translated into 2 Oscar nominations (remember when Ben Affleck was snubbed and Ang Lee won? Oh yeah). For now, things will correlate closely with Best Picture, meaning Steve McQueen for 12 Years a Slave has all the right ingredients right now.
Locked and loaded:
1. Steve McQueen (12 Years a Slave)
2. Alfonso Cuaron (Gravity)
3. David O. Russell (American Hustle)
Most likely:
4. Alexander Payne (Nebraska)
Need to fill the last spot:
5. Martin Scorsese (Wolf of Wall Street)
6. Paul Greengrass (Captain Phillips)
7. Joel & Ethan Coen (Inside Llewyn Davis)
We'll see how the race shapes up with PGA (Producers Guild) DGA (Directors Guild) WGA (Writers Guild) nominations in the coming weeks. So far, the crystal ball is becoming clear....
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