Final Oscar Predictions

This is it... The Oscars are in just one week, and here are your go-to picks Sunday's ceremony. It has been a confusing year to say the least, full of quirky, independent movies. Unlike the past few years, however, there are many races that are absolute toss-ups. Here are mojo's predictions for all 24 categories, as well as a little insight into why we feel these are the most accurate. Good luck!!!

BEST PICTURE

In 2010, "The Social Network" was a critical darling bound for the Best Picture prize. It won the Golden Globe and virtually swept the critics prizes. Then, out of nowhere, "The King's Speech" won PGA, SAG, and DGA in quick succession, and in the end the movie with the heart ultimately won the top prize. So it seems to be going this year, except in reverse, as the emotionally-fulfilling "Boyhood" has been unseated by "Birdman," that quirky movie about show business. Since it swept the guild awards it would be foolish to bet against it. Some people think that "Boyhood" has a better chance given voters rank their Best Picture picks... Nonsense. Birdman is a technical achievement that also has industry support. Boyhood is just a nice, quiet movie about growing up. Both are great, but only one can win. "Whiplash" seems to only grow in esteem and seems viable as a major upset. After all, it's nearly locked to win a Screenplay & Editing Oscar. How strong is the support overall?

1. Birdman
2. Boyhood
3. Whiplash
4. The Grand Budapest Hotel
5. American Sniper
6. The Imitation Game
7. Theory of Everything
8. Selma


BEST ACTOR

This is perhaps the closest race of the year. We have two leaders: Eddie Redmayne and Michael Keaton. Redmayne won the Golden Globe (drama), SAG, and BAFTA, while Keaton won the Golden Globe (comedy), Critics Choice, and his film is most likely winning the top prize. Who will win? Our gut says Redmayne, for a variety of reasons: he plays a real person... who suffers a disability... in a Best Picture nominee... Keaton still stands nearly on level ground, and while we're at it, then don't count out Bradley Cooper for his transformative role in "American Sniper," as well. The film is picking up momentum and Cooper is on his third consecutive nomination. When in doubt, don't go against SAG (as it has predicted the last TEN winners accurately). Should Keaton win, however, don't be surprised. This is a coin-toss situation.

1. Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything)
2. Michael Keaton (Birdman)
3. Bradley Cooper (American Sniper)
4. Benedict Cumberbatch (The Imitation Game)
5. Steve Carell (Foxcatcher)


BEST ACTRESS

All sewn up for Julianne Moore. Some consider this an Oscar win that is a consolation prize for better work. In my opinion, Moore really does give the best performance of all the nominees, and this is a well-deserved win. No surprises here. If there were to be any sort of upset, Rosamund Pike's icy work in "Gone Girl" is certainly a solid contender.

1. Julianne Moore (Still Alice)
2. Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl)
3. Marion Cotillard (Two Days, One Night)
4. Reese Witherspoon (Wild)
5. Felicity Jones (The Theory of Everything)


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

This is one of the locks of the evening, ladies and gentlemen... This is the category that rewards villains time and time again (No Country for Old Men, Inglorious Basterds, The Dark Knight), and this is a cookie cutter performance for the win.

1. JK Simmons (Whiplash)
2. Edward Norton (Birdman)
3. Ethan Hawke (Boyhood)
4. Mark Ruffalo (Foxcatcher)
5. Robert Duvall (The Judge)


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

From the moment "Boyhood" was released, this was Patricia Arquette's Oscar. Beautiful, understated, and absolutely perfect, hers is the performance all the other nominees know they will lose to. The second lock of the evening.

1. Patricia Arquette (Boyhood)
2. Emma Stone (Birdman)
3. Kiera Knightley (The Imitation Game)
4. Meryl Streep (Into The Woods)
5. Laura Dern (Wild)


BEST DIRECTOR

Make no mistake and don't doubt, when it comes to Best Director (and Best Picture, for that matter) the results of the Directors Guild Award are almost entirely accurate. Even in the year of the Social Network when David Fincher won the Golden Globe, Critics Choice, AND BAFTA, Tom Hooper won just the DGA for The Kings Speech. Guess who won the Oscar? While Richard Linklater surely would be deserving for his 12 year project, Birdman has all the momentum needed to easily take this prize.

1. Alejandro Gonzalez Innaritu (Birdman)
2. Richard Linklater (Boyhood)
3. Wes Anderson (the Grand Budapest Hotel)
4. Morten Tildum (The Imitation Game)
5: Bennett Miller (Foxcatcher)


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

For the first time in a while, all three of the Best Picture frontrunners are all contending in the Original Screenplay category. This is a stacked deck, and any nominee would be deserving of the win (save for Nightcrawler's uneasy script). Again, this is another race that is virtually dead-locked. "Birdman" won the Golden Globe. "Budapest" has won everything else (BAFTA, Critic's Choice, and Writer's Guild (where Birdman was ineligible)). For pure imagination and storytelling, we're giving this to Anderson.

1. The Grand Budapest Hotel
2. Birdman
3. Boyhood
4. Foxcatcher
5. Nightcrawler


BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

With our frontrunners contending in Original Screenplay, this category is particularly drab. At first glance one would assume "The Imitation Game" is ahead, but with some category confusion that switched "Whiplash" from original to adapted, this should take the award in a photo finish. The film has more passion behind it, and "Imitation Game" looks like it will go 0-8.

1. Whiplash
2. The Imitation Game
3. American Sniper
4. The Theory of Everything
5. Inherent Vice


BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Since 2009, every winner in this category has been a computer-generated action movie- one that relies heavily on digital settings (Avatar, Inception, Hugo, Life of Pi, Gravity)... Now that we think about it, each of those films also won Best Visual Effects. This is the year to break the chain and there's no way around it. After years of waiting, Emmanuel Lubezki finally won last year for "Gravity." This year, he's all but guaranteed to win his second for his beautiful long takes and shadowy interiors of a New York City theater.

1. Birdman
2. The Grand Budapest Hotel
3. Ida
4. Unbroken
5. Mr Turner


BEST ART DIRECTION

Another award that was tailor-made for "The Grand Budapest's" picturesque settings and colorful scenery.

1. The Grand Budapest Hotel
2. Into The Woods
3. Mr Turner
4. Interstellar
5. The Imitation Game


BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

It's been quite a year for original scores, and this year seems like it's going to go according to plan... the plan being "The Theory of Everything," of course. With its emotional soundtrack that builds to a climax, it's picturesque and beautiful just the way Oscar likes it. There is some rallying support for Alexandre Desplat for one of his two scores, but double nominees in this category have never won. As overdue as he is, he is going to have to keep waiting (as much as we would like him to take it for Budapest).. Hans Zimmer has his best chance in years to win.

1. The Theory of Everything
2. The Grand Budapest Hotel
3. Interstellar
4. The Imitation Game
5. Mr Turner


BEST EDITING

This will be the first time in over 30 years (we predict) that the Best Picture winner will not have been nominated in this category. It's nearly unprecedented. Some people think Boyhood has this in the bag, a film asssembled out of 12 years of footage. We think there is a more deserving nominee that is impossible to ignore. For the most part, 'best editing' goes to the film with the most edits, and this year, "Whiplash" did just that. It's musical, it's kinetic, it's the most obvious choice.

1. Whiplash
2. Boyhood
3. American Sniper
4. The Grand Budapest Hotel
5. The Imitation Game


BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Having previously won for the deliciously-ideal costumes of "Marie Antoinette" and "Barry Lyndon," the costumer behind the clothing of "The Grand Budapest Hotel" has better start preparing a speech.

1. The Grand Budapest Hotel
2. Mr Turner
3. Into the Woods
4. Maleficent
5. Inherent Vice


BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

Again, a category that could go one of three ways. Some claim Budapest is ahead since it is the only film nominated for Best Picture... The flashiest makeup would hands down go to "Guardians of the Galaxy" for its alien design and intricate designs. "Star Trek" won this category just a few years ago - it would not be unheard of. Even "Foxcatcher" has subtle yet effective prosthetics that the Academy could go crazy for. The safest bet for now is "Budapest."

1. The Grand Budapest Hotel
2. Guardians of the Galaxy
3. Foxcatcher


BEST SOUND MIXING

All you need to know with the sound categories is that Mixing is the one that usually goes to Musicals. That fares well for "Whiplash," with its intricate drum solos and razor editing.

1. Whiplash
2. Birdman
3. American Sniper
4. Interstellar
5. Unbroken


BEST SOUND EDITING

... Sound Editing, however, tends to reward gritty action movies- the more gunshots the better. Many times the two sound awards go to the same film (Gravity, Inception, The Hurt Locker...), but according to our logic (with Whiplash being snubbed in this category), the sound design on "American Sniper" is both layered and memorable enough to likely be our winner by default.

1. American Sniper
2. Interstellar
3. Birdman
4. The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies
5. Unbroken


BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

What do you know - another toss up! Usually when predicting Visual Effects, you pick the Best Picture nominee out of the bunch and call it a done deal. It always works (even in surprise years like the time "Hugo" beat "Planet of the Apes"). For the first time in a long time, the nominees do not include one such a nominee. The obvious choice would be "Interstellar," since it feels like the more regal film of the nominees. "Rise of the Planet of the Apes" continues to push technical boundaries with motion capture, and may very well upset this race. However, we're playing it safe and sticking with Christopher Nolan's trippy space opera.

1. Interstellar
2. Rise of the Planet of the Apes
3. Guardians of the Galaxy
4. X-Men: Days of Future Past
5. Captain America: The Winter Soldier


BEST DOCUMENTARY

All season long, we have been hearing of one documentary over and over again: "Citizenfour." With the snub of "Life Itself" in this category, it seems like we would have had a done deal. However (and this may be a bit too much of a stretch for some), with the Academy's tendency to reward films with heart (like last year's "20 Feet From Stardom" or "The Cove), "Virunga" could actually take this race in a 'shouldn't-be-surprising' upset. Oh, and it's the only documentary of all the nominees to receive both PGA and DGA nominations. This is a category the Oscars generally play safe.

1. Virunga
2. Citizenfour
3. Finding Vivian Maier
4. Last Days in Vietnam
5. The Salt of the Earth


BEST ORIGINAL SONG

One of the two nominations for "Selma" fell in this category. In a year where there was clearly a lack of good songs (was the Lego Movie's song something that seems of Oscar-caliber?), Glory is a safe pick, one that will make the Academy seem sensitive to their snubbing of the film in other categories, and will give "Selma" at least one tiny Oscar to take home as a token. Glen Campbell's very moving song serves as an upset, having just won a Grammy and a backstory that will bring a tear to voter's eyes.

1. "Glory" (Selma)
2. "I'm Not Gonna Miss You" (Glen Campbell: I'll Be Me)
3. "Everything Is Awesome!" (The Lego Movie)
4. "Lost Stars" (Begin Again)
5. "Grateful" (Beyond the Lights)


BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

This was the category of the year. It won't be remembered for its groundbreaking list of nominees nor the eventual winner, but simply as the category where "The Lego Movie" was snubbed. Going from year-long frontrunner to not even nominated definitely hurt, and the various awards have crowned a new winner, one that will reward a franchise and a sequel to a better film. According to the Golden Globes and the oftentimes spot-on Annie Awards, this will be the year of the dragon.

1. How To Train Your Dragon 2
2. Big Hero 6
3. Song of the Sea
4. Tale of the Princess Kaguya
5. The Boxtrolls


BEST FOREIGN FILM

"Ida" or "Leviathan" or "Wild Tales." All three seem on fairly even ground, but given the Oscar's obsession with all things Holocaust-related, we think "Ida" will come out on top on Sunday, plus - it would be Poland's first win in this category.

1. Ida
2. Wild Tales
3. Leviathan
4. Timbuktu
5. Tangerines


BEST ANIMATED SHORT

1. The Dam Keeper
2. Feast
3. The Bigger Picturee
4. Me and My Moulton
5. A Single Life


BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

1. Boogaloo and Graham
2. The Phone Call
3. Aya
4. Butter Lamp
5. Parvaneh


BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1. Our Curse
2. Crisis Hotline Veterans Press 1
3. Joanna
4. White Earth
5. The Reaper

Selma (****)

Selma begins with bold directorial brushstrokes and promises to be a movie of ambition and controversy. A story so wrapped up in history and yet remaining so topical, the flaws in the film fall simply on a variety of avoidable decisions. It's been years in the making to get this film released, and even longer for a Hollywood movie to be made focusing on Martin Luther King Jr as a man and leader. It's a shame that such a film was released in a year filled with such dispute and chaos surrounding the legal proceedings in Ferguson, and yet how timely. With all the strides America has made (with great aid from people like Dr King), how far have we really come from the likes of police brutality and demanding justice for those murdered by the law?

The opening of the film is sublime. We see King (David Oyelowo) and his wife, Coretta (Carmen Ejogo) as they prepare for the Nobel Prizes where he is to receive the prize for Peace. No sooner has he accepted than we see the results of a church bombing in Birmingham that leaves 4 little girls dead. Anger has been brewing in the south for some time now, and this is the catalyst that drives the cause to Selma. Amidst so many racial prejudices and injustices, King and his peaceful protesters demand the White House pass legislation to protect black voters and give them the vote. In a town that is 90% black, only 2% are even registered to vote.

We have an introduction to the relationship between King and President Johnson (Tom Wilkinson) and the troubles they encounter: King demands change now, while Johnson has other fish to fry. While the President promises to dig into the matter in the coming months, King likewise promises to make front page news on papers across America.

The set up of the film is sublime, and we learn a lot about characters and setting in a quick amount of time. The many issues and problems the protestors encounter and must overcome are spelled out immediately upon King's arrival to Selma, Alabama, leaving the audience with little else than to witness both the plights and struggles of these black citizens.

David Oyelowo is absolutely brilliant as Martin Luther King, and it's a role that is almost baffling to see snubbed at the Oscars. Through both demeanor and body language, there is virtually no differentiation between the actor and the man, and with his many speeches given from church pulpits to court house steps, we understand why someone like King could rally so many to his cause and lead men and women like no one has since. We saw Oyelowo appear in the less-than-fantastic "The Butler" just last year, but in Selma, this is a breakout role that knocks it out of the park.

Our director, Ava DuVernay, also tackles the subject with a head-on approach and a detailed style. The focus in the screenplay (clunky as it is at times) is handled as well as possible, and there are scenes that are assembled so wonderfully that they leave you both white-knuckled and spellbound. With a better script, there is no doubt this film could have been magnificent. Oftentimes, the film seems to drag on, and instead of following a clear narrative flow, it merely seems to fill the time in between brutal scenes and heart-wrenching speeches. Yes, it's a great movie in the dramatic moments, but in quiet moments of dialogue, it leaves much to be desired.

Aside from my other few annoyances (an original score that is as sloppy as it is confusing, for one), Selma is surely one of the year's more ambitious films, and a film that is important to see both as a piece of history and as a part of today's culture. There is some controversy surrounding the characterizations of the President as being less-than-willing to help the cause, but that's easy to forgive. As a film, there are no requirements to be historically accurate 100% of the time. Even King's speeches throughout the film are entirely fabrications of the filmmakers (as his real speeches have been copyrighted). What matters is the heart of the story, and that is justice for all. As one character recites the Preamble of the Constitution in the film, you listen to the words and can't help but think of how forward-thinking our Founding Fathers were. It's a shame it's taken us so long to catch up.

(Awards potential: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor (Oyelowo), Best Supporting Actress (Ejogo), Best Editing, Best Costume Design, Best Original Song)