It's been a daunting year for movies. It's a curious thing to watch the year unfold, to see great films early on (Get Out) and front-runners fall by the wayside (The Post) in the last minute. This year has been anything except dull, and it seems like the top award, Best Picture, is yet again a toss-up between a couple films. Last year was the infamous Moonlight upset. The year before, Spotlight prevailed over front-runner The Revenant. With the preferential ballot (in which voters rank their favorite movies instead of simply checking their #1 selection), we have slowly seen the Oscars become unpredictable in the way we now must anticipate the film with the general consensus, not the film that draws the most divide. It's going to be anyone's guess right up until that last envelope is opened, and to be honest, isn't that exciting?
BEST PICTURE
1. Get Out
2. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
3. The Shape of Water
4. Dunkirk
5. Lady Bird
6. Phantom Thread
7. Darkest Hour
8. Call Me By Your Name
9. The Post
Last year, we swore on the Bible to never again predict a movie for Best Picture that did not get a correlating nomination for SAG Ensemble in the same year... And what did we do? We went right ahead and predicted "Shape of Water" anyways. I've had a last-minute change of heart, or maybe call it an intuition.
It has dawned on me on the eve of the Oscars that "Get Out" might have a better shot that we give it credit. It just took home the Indie Spirit Award for Best Picture tonight, which has accurately predicted the Oscar for 4 years in a row (including long-shots like Moonlight and Spotlight). Consider this: "Get Out" secured all the necessary precursor nominations (DGA, PGA, SAG, Golden Globes), and while it failed to win in any category, this might be that odd genre picture that is ranked just high enough on people's ballots, either out of passion, guilt, or a combination of the two. When Shape & Billboards split votes, couldn't this be the picture to slide right in between? Exactly 26 years ago, a horror film released in February went on to surprise at the Oscars and win Best Picture. That movie was "Silence of the Lambs." What are the chances it could happen again?
The old rules are out the window. The most nominations doesn't secure you victory. You no longer need to win at least 3 Oscars to claim Best Picture. You don't need an Editing nomination. Hell, you don't even need to win PGA & DGA anymore (we're looking at you, Shape of Water). All you need is a movie with a unique voice, a massive fan-base, and a rooting factor that is undeniable. For all these reasons, doesn't it have to be Jordan Peele's creation?
BEST DIRECTOR
1. Guillermo del Toro (Shape of Water)
2. Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk)
3. Jordan Peele (Get Out)
4. Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird)
5. Paul Thomas Anderson (Phantom Thread)
This year's lineup curiously mirrors 2009, in which we had an African American nominee, an American woman nominee, and a majority of nominees having written their own movies. Kathryn Bigelow ended up as the Oscar's first female winner, but it doesn't seem likely that Ms Gerwig will pervail given her movie's light tone and female perspective. For all we can tell, del Toro has this award locked up tight. He won DGA, he won BAFTA, he won the Golden Globe... Recent trends see directors winning for visual effects-driven wonders that make audiences ask "how did he do that?" Maybe Shape doesn't match the spectacle of past winners like Gravity, Birdman, or The Revenant, but it seems fitting that del Toro join Alejandro G. Innaritu and Alfonso Cuaron as the trifecta of Mexican-born directors to share this prize. It's a lock. Even if Shape walks away without the top prize, it's not leaving empty-handed.
BEST ACTOR
1. Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)
2. Timothee Chalamet (Call Me By Your Name)
3. Daniel Day-Lewis (Phantom Thread)
4. Denzel Washington (Roman J. Israel, Esq)
5. Daniel Kaluuya (Get Out)
So begins the boring streak of "locks." Gary Oldman, like every single acting front-runner, has won the Golden Globe, the Critics Choice, the SAG award, and the BAFTA. Only one actor in history has won all these precursors and gone on to lose the Oscar: Russell Crowe for A Beautiful Mind, and that's rumored to be only because he threw a telephone at a reporter. Save Mr. Oldman doing something rash or suddenly making the wrong sort of headlines, there's no stopping him in this race. Timothee Chalamet is second, but has he (or any of the other nominees) won any awards to even merit an upset?
BEST ACTRESS
1. Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
2. Sally Hawkins (The Shape of Water)
3. Margot Robbie (I, Tonya)
4. Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird)
5. Meryl Streep (The Post)
Frances has not faltered, and in fact her slew of rebellious, hilarious acceptance speeches has certainly helped her more than anything. At one point three-time nominee Saoirse Ronan might have been a front-runner, same with Margot Robbie. Their buzz has dwindled and the love for their respective movies is not as strong. The only chance for an upset (and that is like a 0.01% chance) must be Sally Hawkins on her second nomination. If you're in a Best Picture front runner and play a silent part (Marlee Matlin, Jean Dujardin, Holly Hunter, etc), Oscar oftentimes takes notice.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
2. Christopher Plummer (All The Money In The World)
3. Richard Jenkins (The Shape of Water)
4. Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project)
5. Woody Harrelson (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Sam Rockwell has no reason to lose. He's a lovable character actor who has finally landed a role that people finally noticed. His character is not without flaws, and through no fault of his own, Rockwell might be the one actor who could be upset by a spoiler (we're talking like a 0.2% chance). The narrative around Plummer's recasting of Kevin Spacey is all the more profound given the strength of his performance, and Oscar certainly loves his veteran actors in supporting roles. Don't bet on it, but it would be a fun moment, wouldn't it? Same for Richard Jenkins, a wholly lovable bit actor whose character has the most heart by a mile (and potentially most screen time, too). Willem Dafoe has only lost momentum since The Florida Project's release, as good as he is. Woody Harrelson should be happy to be there.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Allison Janney (I, Tonya)
2. Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird)
3. Octavia Spencer (The Shape of Water)
4. Mary J. Blige (Mudbound)
5. Lesley Manville (Phantom Thread)
Three months ago, people were all but engraving the Oscar statue for Laurie Metcalf and declared it a lock. Today, you'd be hard-pressed to find anyone in their right mind predicting her to win. Janney will certainly prevail for her twisted, hilarious villain in I, Tonya (and villains often win here, mind you), and she's been raking in the trophies to support this bet. Janney is funny, respected, star of TV and movies, and think of how many "Oscar" films she's appeared in (American Beauty, The Help, The Hours, Juno)... It's her time.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1. Call Me By Your Name
2. Mudbound
3. Molly's Game
4. Logan
5. The Disaster Artist
There's only one Best Picture nominee in the lot, and James Ivory (the legendary director) seems finally poised to win his first Oscar at the age of 89. He's going to break Christopher Plummer's record (who was 82 when he won Best Supporting Actor) by a mile. This was a weak category in general, and Ivory should win in a cake walk.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1. Get Out
2. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
3. Lady Bird
4. The Shape of Water
5. The Big Sick
This is it: the most competitive category of the night. It's stacked. No clear front-runner has emerged. One might have argued Lady Bird, but compared to the top 2, it's a pretty safe and "sweet" movie. What about Shape of Water? If you're going to win Best Picture, oftentimes you take a writing award, too. Think of past winners: Her, Birdman, Django Unchained... Sometimes, it's the weirdest of the lot that pulls out victorious in the end. As deserving as Greta Gerwig is for her first film as writer/director, Jordan Peele's debut as writer/director arguably packed more of a punch, one that kept it fresh in audience's minds all year long. An argument can be made for Three Billboards and it's angry, wordy script (not to mention its written by an acclaimed playwright, snubbed director Martin McDonaugh). Don't be surprised if it upsets.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
1. The Shape of Water
2. Blade Runner 2049
3. Dunkirk
4. Darkest Hour
5. Mudbound
For the first time in a while, Roger Deakins finally seems poised to win his long-coveted Best Cinematography Oscar after 14 nominations... Or is he? Time and again, it seems like Deakins is the perennial favorite to win, this year especially given the category's close ties to Best Visual Effects (and Blade Runner being the only film in this category nominated). Yet even more spectacular is the tie between Best Cinematography and Best Picture, of which we have 3 nominees (Dunkirk, Shape, Darkest Hour). You have to go back to Pan's Labyrinth (interesting) in 2006 to find a Best Cinematography winner that was not also a Best Picture nominee. I have felt the Shape of Water buzz for a while, and it makes sense for that to be the picture to win. Let's hope that we are wrong!
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
1. Phantom Thread
2. Beauty and the Beast
3. The Shape of Water
4. Victoria and Abdul
5. Darkest Hour
You've got to go all the way back to 2007 to find a Costume Design winner that wasn't also nominated for Best Art Direction (Elizabeth: The Golden Age was that film). Even last year's upset (Fantastic Beasts) might have been easier to predict given this precedent. As steady as this rule is, Phantom Thread seems poised to take it down for it's jaw-dropping 1950's formal wear and haute-couture dresses that sit at the heart of that movie. It will be a deserved win, and I can't imagine another film deserving it so richly.
BEST ART DIRECTION
1. The Shape of Water
2. Blade Runner 2049
3. Beauty and the Beast
4. Dunkirk
5. Darkest Hour
This category trends towards the film with the "most details," or the "most elegant" sets. Last year, La La Land got swept up into a win despite its modern setting and weak competition. This year, the film everyone talks about regarding its visual design is Shape of Water. I continually disbelieve the fact that "Shape" was made for under $20 million, a baffling statistic given its lush visual effects, costumes, makeup, and those glorious sets (to put in perspective, Beauty and the Beast had a budget of $160 million... Even Darkest Hour had $30 million to work with). I can vividly see in my mind Liza's apartment with it's half-circle window, the glorious movie theater below, and the dreary lab where the creature is held... Think of the other nominees... I can barely remember a detail about them. This is another lock.
BEST EDITING
1. Baby Driver
2. Dunkirk
3. The Shape of Water
4. I, Tonya
5. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
There is a strong case to be made for Baby Driver, which won the BAFTA last weekend and the Broadcast Critics award last month (it must be noted that it lost the Editing Guild to I, Tonya). Many would argue that Dunkirk has this by the way it edits together 3 stories and such varied narratives. Many reviewers did point out that at times Dunkirk was confusing in its structure and audiences were oftentimes lost as to where and when they were in the story. Like Girl With The Dragon Tattoo and Bourne Ultimatum, there seems to be a large chance that Baby Driver could be the rare non-Best Picture nominee to succeed here simply on the merit of having "the most edits."
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
1. Blade Runner 2049
2. War for the Planet of the Apes
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
4. Guardians of the Galaxy: Pt II
5. Kong: Skull Island
What an unexpected batch of nominees here. Despite Kong and Guardians, the top three all seem to have a potential to spoil. We tip the hat to Blade Runner for a variety of reasons. Usually, the Best Picture nominee wins (even though none of these were nominated, Blade Runner certainly feels more like a Best Picture contender). Usually, the film with a Cinematography nod wins. The Oscars have shown very little regard for Andy Serkis and his motion-captured apes (none of the "Apes" films have won the Oscar, despite being the front-runner each year), and with Blade Runner's uncanny recreation of Sean Young as well as an unforgettable cityscape, this seems like the film to take it all.
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
1. Darkest Hour
2. Wonder
3. Victoria & Abdul
This is another baffling category, inconsistent through the years and sometimes hard to pin down. Victoria & Abdul, a perfectly ordinary movie, is nominated here for what I assume is a couple up-do's and beard maintenance? Compared to the other two, its makeup is anything but showy, and I was surprised to see its inclusion over more showy movies like Bright or Guardians. Darkest Hour has this locked up for more reasons than one. Like the Iron Lady, this is going to be another biopic that wins for both acting and makeup. and La Vie En Rose... and Ed Wood... and Dallas Buyer's Club... and Frida. There are time-tested rules here, and any victor besides Darkest Hour and the uncanny Oldman-to-Churchill transformation would be a shock.
BEST SOUND MIXING
1. Dunkirk
2. Baby Driver
3. Blade Runner 2049
4. The Shape of Water
5. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Something in me senses that The Shape of Water can pull off the upset for its creature sounds and its musical-feel (and remember when Best Picture winner Slumdog Millionaire pulled out the upset for Sound Mixing in its own year... Maybe that's indicative of the film's overall support), but the top 2 in this category both have pros that simply outweigh. Dunkirk dazzled with its war aspect (a perennial Oscar favorite here), and Baby Driver integrated music with action (and musicals certainly have the advantage here). A war film won last year, after all (Hacksaw Ridge). We know Dunkirk is likely to win at least 1 sound award, and if you want to play it safe, that might be the one to pick.
BEST SOUND EDITING
1. Dunkirk
2. Blade Runner 2049
3. The Shape of Water
4. Baby Driver
5. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Again, Dunkirk might be the safe bet, but Sound Editing veers more towards those sounds that are created specifically for the film. The alien noises from Arrival last year... The machinery of Mad Max... The silent action in Gravity... Still, war films do just as well, and we have to give it to Dunkirk for its heart-pounding opening scene, for its gunfire, and its relentless bombings and tirades and air strikes. If Blade Runner is as loved as we hope, this could be another category for it to sneak in.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
1. The Shape of Water
2. Dunkirk
3. Phantom Thread
4. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
5. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
The Star Wars nomination has perplexed me since day one, especially since John Williams actually had an original score with "The Post" instead of a rehash of endless themes we already know and love from Star Wars canon. Three Billboards is an undeniably weak score, and so we are left with three. Johnny Greenwood scores a rich first nomination for Phantom Thread, but the Academy has yet to embrace him the way we would hope (the nomination is his reward). Dunkirk, by Hans Zimmer, is a dizzying mix of rising action and suspense, though I would argue it's far from his best work. Then we have Alexandre Desplat, who finally won for Grand Budapest a few years ago, and seems ready to take home Oscar #2 for this French-inspired romance (that at times sounds a bit too familiar with Amelie, but hey, it was a good score wasn't it?)
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
1. This Is Me (The Greatest Showman)
2. Remember Me (Coco)
3. Mighty River (Mudbound)
4. The Mystery of Love (Call Me By Your Name)
5. Stand Up For Something (Marshall)
Many people still firmly believe that Coco is poised to win, and when you hear the song in the film, you can't help but cry at its simplicity and beauty. I ask - has the song won any awards so far? Greatest Showman won the Golden Globe, which is fast becoming a strong predictor for the Oscar. We have all heard the song, it plays during the Olympics, it's somewhat representative of this year as a whole. Even Mudbound's theme (written by Mary J Blige, a 2-time nominee this year) might get the benefit of the doubt and pull off a surprise in the end.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
1. Coco
2. Loving Vincent
3. The Breadwinner
4. Ferdinand
5. The Boss Baby
With Pixar, you usually can guarantee its win. Coco stands as one of their crowning achievements, and this is an easy victory to forsee. In another year, the dazzling Loving Vincent might have made a great winner given its adult themes and stunning oil-painted animation. For now, the "kids movies" will continue to reign in this field.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
1. Faces Places
2. Icarus
3. Last Men in Aleppo
4. Strong Island
5. Abacus: Small Enough to Jail
Jane was the expected winner all year, having won the PGA and varying guild awards. Its snub was surprising, but we are left with 4 downers and one gem - an apple in a basket of oranges. Faces Places is certainly not an "important" film by documentary standards, but the charming Agnes Varda (who just won an Honorary Oscar and would beat James Ivory's record as Oldest Oscar winner (age 89) by a week!) has created a film so charming and simple that voters might check it as a 'feel good' option.
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
1. A Fantastic Woman
2. The Square
3. Loveless
4. The Insult
5. On Body and Soul
In this category year after year, the rule of thumb is find the front-runner (last year, that was Toni Erdmann), eliminate it, and then pick the next runner up. The Square is certainly at the head of the pack (it won the Palm d'Or), but A Fantastic Woman from Chile is a much more grounded, emotional film with a stunning actress at the heart of it. It feels like an important choice, especially this year.
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
1. Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405
2. Edith+Eddie
3. Heroin(e)
4. Knife Skills
5. Traffic Stop
Audience consensus is "Heaven is a Traffic Jam," a documentary about an artist who struggles with mental disorders and institutionalization. It may not have the weight of some other winners or nominees, but in the shorts, best to go with consensus (and the picks of more tenured Oscar prognosticators!).
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM
1. The Eleven O'Clock
2. The Silent Child
3. Watu Wote: All of Us
4. DeKalb Elementary
5. My Nephew Emmett
Based on other critics, it seems to be a race down to The Silent Child (about a deaf girl who learns sign language) and The Eleven O'Clock - a razor sharp comedy about a couple of psychiatrists... Or is it? It stands out as the one film of the bunch not inspired by a true story and not seeking a deeper meaning. Emmett tells the story of a 1950's lynching that rarely knows where it's heading. DeKalb is a beautifully-acted film about a school shooter and a secretary - were it not so short and slight I might suspect it to have a bigger edge here. Watu is a horrific yet warming story of Kenyan-based religious persecution, dizzying in its execution and ultimately beautiful in its delivery. Silent Child certainly feels like a winner for its performances, but the ending slaps us on the face as being a "message movie" and it certainly could sway some voters from checking it forthright. Our money is on Eleven O'Clock for its wit, its sophistication, and having the most accomplished feel for what it is (a short film, nothing more).
BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM
1. Garden Party
2. Dear Basketball
3. Revolting Rhymes Part One
4. Negative Space
5. LOU
Dear Basketball is the odd's-on favorite, until you begin to hear murmurs of #MeToo and the scandals surrounding nominee Kobe Bryant. His film, a self-congratulatory ode to his basketball career, looks good in concept but fares among the average shorts we have seen in years past. Revolting Rhymes stands as the longest of the five, a blend of animation to retell some Roald Dahl fairy tales. It's at best charming and at worst tedious. There's buzz gathering around Garden Party and its photorealistic animation, a whimsical story about frogs and an overgrown backyard. I recall that one of the only consistent rules when predicting animated short winners: go for the one with the animals.
