Reaction to the Academy Awards

Wow. I can't say this year was set in stone, and in fact our predictions only accurately predicted a measly 15 of the 24 categories. Yet again, we missed the Best Picture prize.... What does it take to win? Where Roma seemed the least-permeable in terms of weakness going in (receiving the most nominations at 10), it was ultimately Green Book that came out victorious - that film with No Best Director nomination about a black & white duo traveling around in a car. Surely the directing snub would have been enough to shut down that film's chances (and with a measly 5 nominations). Nope. 2019 will now oddly mirror 1990 in which Driving Miss Daisy (a film about a black & white duo driving around in a car) won the top prize without a directing nomination all while Spike Lee is left in the dust...

Where to begin? The show (a tight 3 hours 15 mins) did feel more streamlined due to lack of a host. We lost no categories to commercial breaks, did without the extended gags of selling Girl Scout Cookies and such, and got extra time for the winners (well, most of them). Despite the mess going into this show, maybe they are on to something with the 'no host' thing.

The biggest surprise of the night was without doubt the upset by Olivia Colman against now 7-time loser Glenn Close (the biggest living Oscar-nominated actor with 7 snubs... Amy Adams is just behind her now with 6). Initial reactions were dropped jaws as our finely-tuned ears did not echo with the expected phrase "...and the winner is Glenn Close in "The Wife." Then the realization began to sink in, and at least for me, the sheer joy of seeing the Academy reward a truly remarkable performance (the year's best for what it's worth) reminds us that sometimes they do pick the best, not the career achievement. That's not to diminish Glenn Close's subtle work, of course. Sometimes, the odds aren't on your side. Colman's speech was one of the night's highlights: spur of the moment, from the heart, and ultimately hilarious ("Lady Gaga, blerrrggghh..").

The ceremony began without a hitch (well, minus the Supporting Actress surprise), and as categories began to roll along with expected winners coming out on top (Free Solo, Vice for makeup, etc), it began to feel like we were on our way to a night of few to no surprises. One outcome that seems so obvious in hindsight is the success of Black Panther and its 3 wins (Costume, Art Direction, Score). Wow. We had a feeling The Favourite wouldn't come out on top, but as the awards clicked along, the superhero scene finally took off for the Oscars (Spider-Man was another deserving victor). It seems like now, with the 'new' Academy, we shouldn't be afraid to branch out from the English historical movies to select some of these categories. Make note: it doesn't take a British monarch to secure an Oscar anymore.

The night's biggest winner was... Bohemian Rhapsody (with 4 trophies). Both sound awards, film editing, and Best Actor. 4 months ago, Rhapsody was a critically-panned work that few expected to receive any nominations. Tonight, it won all of its nominations but one: Best Picture? What happened? Rare is it for a musical film to win Sound Mixing these days (La La Land proved that), but to win both categories is unheard of. It seems like the simple popularity of the film (nearly $1 billion at the global box office) combined with backlash from voters who said "you can't tell me what I will or will not vote for!" helped the film's chances. All I can say is how thankful I am that this year has concluded. At least no one thanked Bryan Singer in their speeches. I have a sneaking suspicion that this might come to be regarded among the worst of the Best Picture nominees in history (but again, that's just me).

Going along with that idea of backlash is Green Book and its 3 trophies (Picture, Screenplay, Supporting Actor). The award season was fraught with headlines aimed to sink the film's chances, from the denial of truth from Shirley's real-life family, to the racist tweets from screenwriter (and son of the film's main character) Nick Vallelonga. With Academy membership having been expanded by 1/3rd and recent "artsy" winners like Moonlight  and Shape of Water, Green Book began to feel like it was aging poorly the moment Julia Roberts finished announcing its name. With a preferential ballot, though, we see the correlation again to the PGA Award (where it also won) and begin to see that despite these hiccups, Green Book remained the year's most generally-agreed upon film, as strange as that sounds.

Regina King surprised me, but was a safe choice for others. She is now the first actor to win an Oscar while being snubbed by SAG and BAFTA. Perhaps it was the lack of a solid second-place winner that secured it for her. What happened to Rachel Weisz? This year will forever be identical to the year of Sylvester Stallone/Mark Rylance, only with the outcomes reversed. How did King win? It will take some time to figure it out, but how great it was to hear her moving speech among a night of many moving speeches.

Roma  ultimately took home 3: for cinematography, directing, and foreign film. Once a front-runner, I have a feeling that voters began to see the juggernaut of Netflix and it's massive $50+ million campaign as overkill. Where Roma felt like David, I think in reality it became more of a goliath. From a tiny art-house piece that feels so in line with Oscar trends, the Netflix bias (is it cinema or television?) and overall confusion surely led to its demise.

Still, it's that final award that hums in my brain. A film like Green Book winning is not entirely surprising, but it feels like a winner more akin to the 1960's or 1970's, not something relevant to today. As one critic stated, it's little more than "a movie about a racist teaching a black guy how to be black." In a time when our culture is divided and politics run amok, then maybe this is the best film to represent us. No, it's not really looking forward... It's just kind of sad that of all the clever, beautiful, remarkable nominees, they picked the one with probably the least amount to say about our times today. Am I upset? About Bohemian and Green Book, somewhat. When placed against Olivia Colman, though, maybe we can call it a draw.

Oscar Predictions in 24 categories - A Global Ceremony

What a lineup. The 2019 Oscars are primed to be one of the most diverse, unique, and global ceremonies to date. The top nominations are arguably a weak bunch, divided in their critical praise and box office figures. Perhaps this is thanks to the new influx of Academy members in the past few years (their voting body has increased by nearly a third), or perhaps the changes in Hollywood are actually making their mark (Netflix received 13 nominations!).

We can read the tea-leaves, but nearly every single film missed somewhere on the ride to these nominations... We have been incorrect in predicting Best Picture 3 years in a row (all the way back when we correctly guessed Birdman in 2014). What's going on?? Year after year, the Oscar race is demonstrating to us that with new, more diverse voters, the trends of the past are going away. No more do we need a film to be nominated in Editing, in Director, at SAG Ensemble, etc... That's making it particularly hard at predicting, but definitely keeps the race exciting.

This year's ceremony has been fraught with idiocy at every turn. From the Academy initially announcing an award for "Best Popular Film," then changing their mind, to announcing Kevin Hart as the host to a slew of criticism, then proposing awards like Cinematography and Editing be awarded during commercial breaks.... Then changing their minds. Oh, and announcing only 2 songs (the 2 performed by a-list celebs) would be performed on the televised ceremony........ and then changing their minds. As a matter of taste, no award at the Oscars is above any of the others, even though the night is flooded with actors galore. Whoever makes these decisions should swiftly be fired. Each new decision has left a progressively bitter taste in audiences' mouthes, all for the sake of televising an awards show "at no more than 3 hours long." Honestly, who cares? The way to make a more efficient ceremony isn't by editing out televised wins, but this is another conversation altogether. Anyways, where were we:



BEST PICTURE

1. Roma
2. BlacKkKlansman
3. Green Book
4. Vice
5. The Favourite
6. A Star Is Born
7. Black Panther
8. Bohemian Rhapsody

It's rare for Best Picture to be awarded as an "IOU," and the whispers of Spike Lee being crowned as makeup for earlier snubs is likely a foolish belief. Same for Bradley Cooper and his "Star" project, once a frontrunner, now dead on arrival. With a snubs in editing and directing, it seems like early hype wasn't enough to keep it alive. A Star Is Dead, so to say. The Favourite received the most nominations, but missed DGA. I know we mentioned old trends fading away, but DGA has remained a bellwether through thick and thin. Green Book won PGA, but can the controversy keep it alive? Year after year, we have seen sharply-divided films (Three Billboards, Boyhood, etc) lose under the preferential ballot. What makes Green Book any different here?

Our only logical conclusion is Roma, that beautiful black and white foreign film that will become the first-ever foreign winner. Considering the political climate and whispers of a US wall to keep Mexicans out, the liberal Academy won't be able to contain themselves. Yes, it's Netflix. Yes, it's foreign... Yes, it's black and white. There's a first for everything. Cuaron won DGA, which is a good sign. The film was snubbed at SAG... Oh well. The same thing happened to Shape of Water last year. It also missed an Editing nomination. All I can say is this: when your film receives 2 surprise acting nominations as well as 2 sound nominations (Sound Editing nominees usually go to war films... Roma had some of the most subtle soundscapes in recent Academy history)... If that doesn't show broad support for a particular film, then what does?


BEST DIRECTOR

1. Alfonso Cuaron - Roma
2. Spike Lee - BlacKkKlansman
3. Adam McKay - Vice
4. Yorgos Lanthimos - The Favourite
5. Pawel Pawlikowski - Cold War

Cold War: only the second time a director has received a lone nomination without their film receiving a Best Picture nomination since expanding the field to 10 (the first film being Foxcatcher). The snub of Bradley Cooper is indeed surprising but in hindsight somewhat expected (first Ben Affleck's snub now here, I think the Academy doesn't like attractive male actors-turned directors anymore... Kevin Costner & Robert Redford better consider themselves lucky they won before this new trend began). Let's be real, Alfonso has virtually no competition. He's won nearly every award this entire season. The 5th time in 6 years that a Mexican filmmaker will win the directing prize (that'll be 2 for Alfonso, 2 for Innaritu, 1 for del Toro). This also continues the trend (though less-so in recent years) that Picture & Director are the same film. Viva Mexico!


BEST ACTOR

1. Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody)
2. Christian Bale (Vice)
3. Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born)
4. Viggo Mortensen (Green Book)
5. Willem Dafoe (At Eternity's Gate)

Unlike last year, a majority of the acting categories seem ripe for upsets. Where Frances and Gary and Allison and Sam won all the major precursors last year, we have seen splits and upsets and divides galore. I have had a hunch since buzz began to build that this would be Malek's award to lose, despite the often controversial lip-syncing (lets be honest, no one would have been able to mimic Freddie Mercury anyways). I remain partial to Cooper and Mortensen, but their support has fizzled in recent months. Maybe Bradley Cooper remains a loooooong shot of vote splitting occurs between #1 and #2 (how funny that of all the major awards he's been nominated for this year, he only managed to win a Grammy). The only real challenger seems to be Christian Bale, who follows in the footsteps of Gary Oldman to play a fat politician. Is his performance big enough? Certainly Bale is an actor deserving of 2 Academy Awards... SAG went for Malek. BAFTA went for Malek. Oscars will probably fall in line.


BEST ACTRESS

1. Glenn Close (The Wife)
2. Olivia Colman (The Favourite)
3. Yalitza Aparicio (Roma)
4. Lady Gaga (A Star Is Born)
5. Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)

Yes it's probably foolish to have Gaga any lower than #3, but can we really deny that Glenn Close will lose to another pop star (first being Cher in Moonstruck)? Close has won virtually all of the precursors... SAG, Critics Choice, Golden Globe... Colman still could be a potential upset for an arguably "showier" role and the broad support for The Favourite overall. BAFTA loved her, but is that much of a surprise for a British voting group? Part of me feels like this would be cruel to Glenn Close... Having her lose her 7th nomination, I mean. Then again, we know the Academy can be ruthless. Peter O'Toole never won with 8 nominations. Richard Burton with 7... I really want to go on a limb for Colman, but logically there is little evidence to support that kind of upset. It feels like a massive upset ala Marion Cotillard besting Julie Christie in 2008. Then again, Julie Christie wasn't on nomination #7. Let's call this a Veteran's Achievement Oscar and move on.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Mahershala Ali (Green Book)
2. Richard E Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
3. Sam Elliott (A Star Is Born)
4. Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman)
5. Sam Rockwell (Vice)

Despite the headscratcher inclusion of Rockwell for a 5-minute spoof performance of W Bush, this has virtually been the same lineup all year (minus Timothee Chalamet). I have been confused about Adam Driver all season, a decent actor but ultimately forgettable in his respective film. Any of the top 3 seem like potential spoilers, but like Glenn Close, Ali has won most of the top prizes so far. He's about to win his 2nd Oscar in 2 years. Grant had such a delicious performance that it's a shame more awards didn't come his way this season. Even BAFTA couldn't break the Ali streak. No Oscar at this point would be a snub.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Rachel Weisz (The Favourite)
2. Amy Adams (Vice)
3. Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)
4. Marina de Tavira (Roma)
5. Emma Stone (The Favourite)

Yikes. I don't know what to do. "Experts" have been claiming Regina King to be the clear winner all season, despite missing nominations at SAG and BAFTA. Sound familiar? It should. Sylvester Stallone followed the exact same trajectory for Creed and was still the frontrunner all the way to Oscar night when Mark Rylance's name was called out instead. It was 2015. That year saw the SAG winner go to an actor (Idris Elba) who was snubbed at the Oscars... Kind of like when Emily Blunt won SAG this year... BAFTA went to the ultimate Oscar victor Mark Rylance - his only major win (and most people at the time assumed he won just because he was British). Why is Regina still ahead? For the life of me I can't tell, but maybe it's because no clear front-runner has emerged in her place. Amy Adams was often cited here and might win on nomination #6, but she, like the other 3 actresses, have won virtually nothing. We have to side with BAFTA. They predicted that Rylance upset. In fact they often are telling about these supporting races (Tilda Swinton, Alan Arkin.... All upsets that BAFTA predicted first)... Of the whole night, I think this is the most suspenseful category of the night.


BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. BlacKkKlansman
2. Can You Ever Forgive Me?
3. If Beale Street Could Talk
4. A Star Is Born
5. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

This is a curiously weak category. Unlike Best Picture, here is a category where they can give Spike Lee that 'overdue' Oscar. It doesn't hurt that he's in the only serious Best Picture front-runner in the lineup. We must consider that Can You Ever... had that surprise upset at the Writer's Guild. Barry Jenkin's lush screenplay for Beale Street might have been more of a threat of the film received more love, that being said I don't think the Academy would be afraid to reward Jenkins one more time. The Academy's love for the Coen brothers continues to surprise us (Scruggs). A Star Is Dead, sorry to be repetitive.


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. The Favourite
2. Green Book
3. First Reformed
4. Roma
5. Vice

This year is so hard to predict only because there aren't many categories with clear front-runners. Original Screenplay often goes to the most innovative, weird, creative story... Think Get Out, Her, Birdman, Django... They usually like to reward a single screenwriter, too (as opposed to a team of writers). Well, what's the most original here? Logic says the razor tongues and wits of the ladies in Favourite would set that film ahead (though it is credited to two writers). Then again, Paul Schrader just received his first nomination ever for First Reformed. Could a respected veteran like that win here against 4 Best Picture nominees?? If Roma is winning it all then we can't ultimately count out Cuaron to win here as well. Green Book won the Globe. Eighth Grade won the Guild (alongside its shocking DGA win, "Eighth Grade" feels more and more like it was unfairly snubbed across the board). I don't see any film here that has a clear front-runner status. Throw a dart, I don't know.


BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. Roma
2. Cold War
3. The Favourite
4. A Star Is Born
5. Never Look Away

Roma. Done. Next.

To be fair, the Cinematography Guild (right probably 50% of the time) gave us a shock when they rewarded Cold War. Could this cinematographer (Łukasz Żal, who previous received a nom for similar work in Ida) sneak up and surprise? I doubt it, but that's the spoiler here. Never Look Away, another foreign nominee (3 in a year, wow!) is probably the most unexpected, unheard of nominee in a major category since "Alone Yet Not Alone" was controversially included in the Best Original Song lineup. At least this one doesn't smell like foul play.


BEST EDITING

1. Bohemian Rhapsody
2. BlacKkKlansman
3. Vice
4. The Favourite
5. Green Book

Could Bohemian Rhapsody, a film Twitter has declared one of the worst-edited films ever nominated (google it), take the top prize? Well, when the lineup doesn't include the predicted front-runners like Black Panther, Roma, or even A Star Is Born, then what's down is up and up is down. Certainly the Academy felt justified in nominating the film for its senseless, scattered, logic-less editing choices, but what else is the front-runner here? I vividly recall the scene in BlacKkKlansman in which a speech is being given while the faces of an audience are slowly faded in and out. I also remember the crisp editing of The Favourite and its slow takes, double-exposures, and sense of place. Are these films too slow to win here? For the Academy - absolutely. The faster the better. Look out for BAFTA-winner Vice, too. Funny enough, the last film to win here with a deliberately slow pace was Alfonso Cuaron's Gravity, a movie remembered for long-takes, few cuts, and a clear story. If they liked the style so much, then why snub Roma?


BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. The Favourite
2. Black Panther
3. Mary Poppins Returns
4. Roma
5. First Man

This category is inexplicably tied to Costume Design and vice versa. It's rare for a film to win one without being nominated in the other. That narrows the field down to our top 3. Of those, The Favourite seems to have the best chance - historical, royalty, dresses, etc... I can't put my finger on why I feel so unsure about this. Black Panther is looking likely to sneak away with one or two awards if it's lucky tonight. Are we due for a surprise or two? Or is the Panther rage not going to translate well with Academy voters?


BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1. The Favourite
2. Black Panther
3. Mary Poppins
4. Mary Queen of Scotts
5. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

Again, our top 3 are the logical frontrunners. Will it be a Favourite sweep? For convenience's sake I will say yes. Hear it from me first though: Black Panther or Poppins have what it takes to upset.


BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

1. Vice
2. Mary Queen of Scots
3. Border

I, personally, was upset the Academy couldn't find it in their hearts to nominate Suspiria for their transformation of Tilda Swinton into an elderly German... Then again, why exactly does this category only allow 3 nominees? Vice is clearly winning. Like Darkest Hour, La Vie En Rose, Iron Lady, Frida, etc, the film that transforms its star into an historical figure will always win. When there are two nominees that fit the bill - pick the one with a fat suit.


BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1. If Beale Street Could Talk
2. Black Panther
3. BlacKkKlansman
4. Mary Poppins Returns
5. Isle of Dogs

Is it just me or is this arguably one of the weakest lineups of original score in maybe forever? Where is the brooding electronics of Annihilation, the mystery and beauty of Thom York's work on Suspiria, or the previously presumed front-runner First Man?! What is the winner here? Like Adapted Screenplay, being a Best Picture nominee helps. That's not to say I don't feel like Mary Poppins could win for it's remarkably innovative and theatrical compositions. If it was up to me, that would get my vote. Still, one of the most consistently-praised aspects of Beale is that lush music, and Nicholas Britell has been overdue since his work for Moonlight was cruelly snubbed.


BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1. "Shallow" - A Star Is Born
2. "All The Stars" - Black Panther
3. "I Fight" - RBG
4. "The Place Where The Lost Things Go" - Mary Poppins Returns
5. "When A Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings" - The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

As partial as I am for the Scruggs song (a highlight of an already charming film), this is Lady Gaga's Oscar. Her name is already engraved. It's quite a deserving winner, too. The other four are just happy to be nominated, and anyone else besting Gaga would be an upset of monumental caliber. This is the most assured lock of the night, despite the shortcomings of the film itself.


BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1. First Man
2. Avengers: Infinity War
3. Ready Player One
4. Solo: A Star Wars Story
5. Christopher Robin

Always wager on the Best Picture nominee (aside from one or two notable surprises... Ex Machina, for instance, a win that was oh so deserving but oh so confusing). When you don't have a Best Picture nominee, pick the film that probably could have made the final list... In this case, it's not hard to pick First Man for it's flying sequences and moon-landing. If anything, perhaps here is finally a chance for Oscars to give Marvel some recognition, or honor the forgotten but still impressive Ready Player One. Many people are betting on Avengers, and it's honestly a difficult choice between the top two... The snub of Black Panther here only confirms the Academy's focus on quality. Then again, it's been since 2004's Spider-Man 2 that a superhero won the category. Marvel isn't necessarily a darling of the Oscars yet. As a side note - I was very impressed with the photorealism (albeit sometimes creepy appearance) of "Christopher Robin" and what a pleasant surprise this nomination was.


BEST SOUND MIXING

1. Bohemian Rhapsody
2. Roma
3. First Man
4. A Star Is Born
5. Black Panther

The first of our mystifying Sound categories. Mixing, the category that generally rewards music-based stories (not always... *cough* La La Land was passed over in a rare demonstration that the Academy does regard quality over "buzz"), has two options to choose from between Bohemian and Star. Then again, Mixing does like it's action too. Surprised to see Roma here? We were too, but then remembered Best Picture winner Slumdog Millionaire came out victorious here, so maybe Roma has a better shot than we think... In the end, the dubbing and musical montages and Live Aid sequence seems poised to tip the scales towards Freddie Mercury, albeit reluctantly.


BEST SOUND EDITING

1. First Man
2. A Quiet Place
3. Black Panther
4. Bohemian Rhapsody
5. Roma

It's a tough call to bet against the one film of the year where sound played such a crucial role (A Quiet Place), but to see the film snubbed in Sound Mixing where I would have thought it had a better 'mix' than 'edit' regarding sound, I wonder if there's enough support across the board for it to succeed. Whiplash managed to win Sound Mixing without a nomination here, so it's possible, but I have a feeling the rocket engines and silent moon landing of First Man might give that film an Oscar despite being overall forgotten in larger categories. Maybe Black Panther could pull it off too, but when you're comparing action scenes to previous winners like The Dark Knight, I really don't think Panther can hold a candle to that kind of quality.

Sound Editing regards creating a unique soundscape unique to the film. It's hearing sounds we have never heard before. It's imagination, creativity.... It's the dinosaur sounds in Jurassic Park or the strange electric guitar and motors from Mad Max. The nomination of Bohemian Rhapsody here is so shocking and disturbing that I now fully admit that I have no idea what sound is anymore. I also further acknowledge that my blind dismissal of the film may allow it to sneak up and win 3 or 4 Oscars... I hope not, but it's certainly possible.


BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1. Spider-Man: Into the Spiderverse
2. Isle of Dogs
3. Incredibles II
4. Mirai
5. Ralph Breaks the Internet

Never for a second did I believe Incredibles had a shot here. I was convinced this would finally be Wes Anderson's time to win a long overdue Oscar... Until I saw Spider-Man. As cold as I usually am to superhero movies, this was an achievement in movies, and particularly animated ones. I'm not surprised this film is raking in the wins, and it should very easily claim an Oscar as one of the most innovative animated films I've seen in a while. Wes Anderson, your time is coming - but not yet.


BEST ANIMATED SHORT

1. Weekends
2. Late Afternoon
3. Animal Behavior
4. Bao
5. One Small Step

Hindsight is usually 20/20 in these categories, despite predicting them nearly always being an impossible task. Year after year I have watched short films, fallen in love with some, assumed voters would do, and then feel heartbroken when my "assured winner" was snubbed. This year, for instance, I found Late Afternoon to be one of the more sublime movies I've seen- a colorful and heartbreaking story of a woman sifting through her memories amidst Alzheimer's. Maybe it could still get the sentimental vote. On pure comedy Animal Behavior wins, not to mention this category tends to reward the option with animals... Then again, the animation is so crude that one could argue it doesn't match the artistic efforts of the others. Bao is Pixar's annual entry - beloved by many, but feels so safe that I don't think voters will give it a second glance. The standout from an animation standpoint is Weekends, a strange yet eye-opening glance into a boy dealing with the divorce of his parents. The style is impressionistic and memorable, it's full of scary but inventive dream sequences, and the accompanying Satie piano pieces work perfectly to encapsulate this dark world. In looking back over past winners, we tend to see the film that pushes the envelope with style... Of the five, nothing quite matches it.


BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

1. Marguerite
2. Skin
3. Detainment
4. Madre
5. Fauve

I have enjoyed seeing the short films at my local theater the past few years, though I have discovered that actually seeing the shorts does hurt my odds at predictions. These categories are up in the air, and with no major precursors to guide the way, emotion can oftentimes trip us up. This lineup of 5 films is one of the most dour, emotionally-draining, and disturbing selections I can remember. Detainment has gained the most publicity (and controversy) for it's real-life portrait of two 10-year old killers... The film left me gasping for air and in unrelenting tears, and I don't think it's because the film was amazing. Madre is a beautiful story told almost entirely in one continuous shot, but the ending leaves us wanting more. I think Skin actually has a real shot here, a strange yet brutal view of American racism today (with a twist), but I feel like the controversy surrounding Detainment will push it ahead, whether or not its praise is worthy. Ultimately, Marguerite feels like the winner here, the one feel-good in the bunch, not particularly memorable, but a quaint story about an elderly woman coming to terms with her own sexuality at end of life. With the shorts, movies with child actors usually come out on top. Here is the one nominee that features none. Is this a risky bet?


BEST DOCUMENTARY

1. Free Solo
2. Minding the Gap
3. RBG
4. Of Fathers and Sons
5. Hale County This Morning, This Evening

It's a sad day in the neighborhood of Academy Awards. I won't even begin to comprehend how Won't You Be My Neighbor or Three Identical Strangers are not in a majority of the voter's top-5 documentaries of the year. Last year it was Jane. Before that it was Life Itself. Even Hoop Dreams. This group has a notorious reputation to snub any film that is actually a critical and commercial success. What's going on? What are we left with... It seems really obvious that a movie like Free Solo has the edge and will win for its artistic merit and ode to the physical feat of one man (I'm strongly reminded of Man on Wire here). RBG is too plain a movie, arguably a TV-level film (and not even the best bio-doc of the year..... We're obviously talking about Fred Rogers). Minding the Gap has critical strength and a multi-focused story on race and poverty set against the backdrop of skateboarding and is our choice for possible upset.


BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT

1. Period. End of Story
2. End Game
3. LIFEBOAT
4. A Night at the Garden
5. Black Sheep

The winner is so clearly in front of us that I wonder if there will be some cruel twist in which another film comes out victorious. Period tells the charming but eye-opening story of the female menstrual cycle in India and the lack of access to basic sanitation. What happens? A bunch of women band together to open a small business that creates feminine pads and reveals the stigma around the subject. It's charming and important, in every way that a short film should be. The Netflix factor will help. Runners up to End Game and it's truly moving depiction of various aspects of hospice care in the US, and LIFEBOAT about African migrants crossing some truly dangerous waters. The odd one out seems to be Night at the Garden which amounts to little more than a 5 minute found footage assembly of a Nazi rally just before WWII in New York City. It's scary how much the times seem similar to our own, and despite the film having many shortcomings (length, no story, no explanation), it's certainly an apple amidst a bunch of oranges.


BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

1. Roma
2. Cold War
3. Never Look Away
4. Shoplifters
5. Capernaum

Some people are foolishly predicting a Cold War upset, but clearly forgot that Roma is tied as the year's most nominated film. Not to mention, the only other foreign film to receive as many nominations was Crouching Tiger, which curiously lost Best Picture but still won this category. Cold War came out in the wrong year, simple as that. This will be Mexico's first win, as shocking as that is. Again with the politics of it all, to give the award to Mexico seems too good for voters to pass up.