Official 93rd Oscar Predictions

 

It's been a year. What else can be said? With the impact of COVID, the extended qualifying period for eligible films, an increase in streaming nominees, this year's Academy Awards feel messy, unresolved, and far from cookie-cutter. Where last year I had seen the eventual Best Picture winner (Parasite, ah such bliss that was) in October, I don't think I had seen this year's winner (details to come) until February. While I don't like many of the nominees (in fact I actively despise a few Best Picture nominees), this has actually shaped out to be one of the more interesting years in many races - so many of which feel like absolute mysteries. Now that BAFTA and SAG are complete - this is as clear a picture as we will have for these races. Without delay:

BEST PICTURE

1. Nomadland
2. Minari
3. Trial of the Chicago 7
4. Promising Young Woman
5. Judas and the Black Messiah
6. The Father
7. Sound of Metal
8. Mank

As much as I despised "Trial," I acknowledge it is in prime upset territory given its recent SAG Ensemble victory (the winner of this wins Best Picture approximately 50% of the time) and its key nominations (and despite a Best Director snub. Remember Green Book? Argo? Best Director isn't always needed anymore). 

On paper, it has to be "Nomadland." It won PGA. It won The Critic's Choice. Golden Globe. BAFTA... Does anyone hate it? I admit it's a very abnormal film to win Best Picture, but this is a very abnormal year for anything. A film with a single female lead and a cast of virtually all non-actors. There's no plot. It's slow. It missed SAG Ensemble (though so did Shape of Water & Green Book... I think the fact that Frances got nominated is enough to rest easy). It feels very much like "Boyhood" which was once a front-runner then was snubbed for a showier movie (Birdman). Will it win? I think so. Chloe Zhao came out of the far recesses of indie cinema to bring us this timely drama, and it stands to reason this will be the second-ever film to win Best Picture directed by a woman (The Hurt Locker). 

The wildly weird "Promising Young Woman," which got all the essential nominations needed along with "Nomad" (Director, Editing, Acting, Screenplay) seems primed for an upset. Is that film as widely regarded, especially when put to count on a preferential ballot? (the film with the highest average of ranking (ie, most 1st, 2nd, 3rd place votes) wins). I personally would rank "Woman" relatively low on my ballot, and "Nomad" relatively high. Wouldn't you? 

I had hope for "Minari" earlier this season, and I still suspect an outside chance. The anonymous ballots from Oscar voters in recent weeks all hold the film in high regard. The film shows the struggle and acceptance of a Korean family into middle America in the 1980's. Amidst the #StopAsianHate news this year, it feels like the perfect "in" to reward this film. It could still happen, but its loss at SAG and elsewhere (not to mention a Korean-language film just won last year... Are they going to reward what is essentially a foreign-language film back to back?) makes this more of a long shot. Unless it becomes the first movie since "Spotlight" to win only 2 awards... Or the first in nearly 90 to win only  Best Picture (depending on a few other races). 

Bet on "Nomadland," but with so many surprises in recent years I wouldn't be surprised for any sort of upset. While I correctly gleaned "Parasite" as the victor last year, even that was technically an upset. It will be a nail-biter up until the final envelope. If there is a year when a film wins only Best Picture and no other statue, this feels like it. 

**I moved Trial of the Chicago 7 up over Promising Young Woman because I have to imagine on a preferential ballot that the latter would rank lower on more peoples' ballots... It's simply too divisive to win, right? Along the same logic, Minari is in 2nd place on account of its universal adoration and a gut feeling that if there is an upset, that would be it...

BEST DIRECTOR

1. Chloe Zhao (Nomadland)
2. Lee Isaac Chung (Minari)
3. Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman)
4. David Fincher (Mank)
5. Thomas Vinterberg (Another Round)

Lock this category up. The narrative for at least 6 months has been that Zhao will become the second female Best Director winner, and deservedly so. While some years they reward this for the film with the most visual effects or trickiest camerawork, Zhao's film is sheer poetry and a marvel of tone and place. It's a deserved win. 

This category was almost majority female (many thought Regina King's work on "One Night In Miami" would sneak in here) but the simple fact we have 2 female nominees is groundbreaking in itself. Hell, there are only two white male nominees here. When has that ever happened? Lee Isaac Chung's personal work in "Minari" shows more skill (I think) over Fennell's twisted yet sloppy debut (my opinion). Fincher should be so happy to be here for one if his weakest pictures, and Vinterberg continues the tradition of having a rogue foreign film nominee - albeit deserving. If Chloe Zhao loses it will be a major shocker.

BEST LEADING ACTOR

1. Anthony Hopkins (The Father)
2. Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom)
3. Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal)
4. Steven Yeun (Minari)
5. Gary Oldman (Mank)

Aside from Oldman's head-scratching inclusion here, this would be a list for the ages. Again, another category that is majority persons of color. What a year. 

I am walking off a cliff here. Going down with this ship, whatever. Let me explain. Chadwick is far and away the front-runner to win here. He took home Golden Globe, SAG, Critic's Choice... The narrative is there - that he died of cancer while giving it all for his last performance. He was a fine actor, and yet this performance was a very clear miss for me. I think I'm alone here - and I acknowledge I'm letting personal bias get in the way of predictions. No matter how you spin it, Chadwick is the apparent winner here. 

Let's look at Anthony Hopkins. His last Oscar victory (in fact his only victory) was for "Silence of the Lambs" 30 years ago. Since then, he has amassed 6 nominations (including last year for "The Two Popes"). If you have a 1 in 5 chance of winning in a given year, then he's due. Not to mention his performance is almost universally acclaimed as his best work to date. It's an actor's dream. It's showy as hell. Should one of the world's best actors really only have 1 Oscar this late in his career? "The Father" is the last of the Best Picture nominees to get released - and it's showing with thunderous praise - that late-breaking support could set him over the edge. It's the freshest performance in voters' minds. He also just took the BAFTA in a not-so-surprising upset. Hometown advantage, sure, but Olivia Colman also won her respective BAFTA race and no one seemed to suspect what was to come...

I have put personal feelings aside in the past - predicting Glenn Close over the clear superiority of Olivia Colman... Assuming Julie Christie would prevail over one of the screen's greatest performances by Marion Cotillard. Predicting Viola over Meryl "Thatcher..." If you're betting, put your chips on Chadwick Boseman. This is a losing gamble for me (I think) - but if I'm right, I want those bragging rights. There have only been 2 posthumous acting winners in Academy history. Those are pretty slim odds. Also think on this - that Best Actor hasn't gone to a performance that wasn't in a Best Picture nominee since 2009 (Jeff Bridges in Crazy Heart). Hey, maybe even Riz Ahmed (brilliant, devastating work by the way) has a better shot than we think...

BEST LEADING ACTRESS

1. Andra Day (The United States vs. Billie Holliday)
2. Viola Davis (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom)
3. Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman)
4. Frances McDormand (Nomadland)
5. Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a Woman)

WHAT. A. CATEGORY. In 50 years when I reflect back on Oscar races (if I still care by then), I imagine the 2020 Best Actress Race will be one of the most memorable. Usually we can predict fairly easily with the precursors. Whoever wins the most is probably winning the Oscar. It's not 100%, but it's genuinely simple math. Last year, Renee Zelwegger won virtually every award that was available. Of course she was going to win the Oscar. i could have napped through this category when it happened. 

Well... Let's look at the tea leaves. Andra Day won the Golden Globe (in an upset) but was snubbed at SAG and BAFTA. Carey Mulligan won Critic's Choice but was snubbed by BAFTA (and lost the SAG, which she realistically should have won to have stayed a threat). Viola Davis shocked us all and won SAG (but of course she was snubbed by BAFTA (and if you're curious, yes - they still nominated Chadwick Boseman). McDormand only won BAFTA but was competing against virtually none of these women.  Kirby is so lucky to be included at all. 

Who wins?? Many prognosticators still think Mulligan is ahead. How? She has won virtually nowhere and her performance isn't as showy as the rest. Others think McDormand given her film's clout. I counter with - which actor has won their 3rd Academy Award with such a subtle performance... and one that has won no precursors? 

I'm telling you that it has to be Davis or Day. We have gone 92 years with only one black actress to win this award (otherwise it's been entirely white actors) - Halle Berry in "Monster's Ball." It's time for some more women to join her company. In fact it's embarrassing that it hasn't happened since. Viola Davis as Ma Rainey is such a technically brilliant role, but her screen time amounts to no more than 20 minutes. How funny that if she were to win, she would have won a supporting actress Oscar for a lead role (Fences), and a lead actress Oscar for a supporting one (Ma Rainey)... Both August Wilson adaptations, no less. 

This award is Andra Day's. I just feel it deep down. Yes, she was snubbed by SAG (so was Regina King), but this performance has it all. She sings her own songs in the style of Holliday. She has nudity. She has graphic sex scenes. She does drugs. She even dies a tragic death. She has a single long-take of an outpouring of emotion. She plays a real person... In the history of the Oscars, she is a cookie-cutter example of what typically wins Best Actress. Despite her being the film's only nomination (I'm not surprised, the film is tragically awful), that hasn't stopped other actresses from winning here in the past - I'm looking at you, Julianne Moore. In such an untraditional year, I think someone like Day can just squeeze in by a hair. 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah)
2. Paul Raci (Sound of Metal)
3. Sasha Baron Cohen (The Trial of the Chicago 7)
4. Leslie Odom, Jr. (One Night in Miami)
5. Lakeith Stanfield (Judas and the Black Messiah)

Kaluuya is making the traditional "sweep" that I mentioned so many other actors have in years past. He hasn't lost anywhere. It's a powerhouse performance. He's already been nominated before. The only shakeup is the surprise inclusion of Stanfield (who is arguably the film's lead) who might siphon off votes. Still, this feels so utterly locked that putting Raci in second place is nothing but sheer personal preference. 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Yuh-Jung Youn (Minari)
2. Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm)
3. Glenn Close (Hilbilly Elegy)
4. Olivia Colman (The Father)
5. Amanda Seyfried (Mank)

This category, like lead actress, has been full of twists and turns. Jodie Foster won the Globe (the first time the winner in this category was snubbed at the Oscars in literally dozens of years). Youn won SAG and BAFTA. Bakalova won Critic's Choice... Even Close, who has won nothing, still has a shot if voters realize she's about to become 0:8 on Oscar wins... She would also become the first person to win an Oscar for a performance that was also Razzie-nominated. 

In my heart the clear winner is Bakalova. She stole every scene she was in and performed daring feats that are likely to go unnoticed to many. Her film is simply "not" what many imagine as an Oscar-winner. Still, maybe there can be a tie. Youn is so brilliant in "Minari" that about halfway through the film I got the feeling deep down that this is a master at work - and that her performance is so clearly the year's best in this category. I think it's down to those two only. Whoever sneaks ahead will truly be deserving. I even think Colman deserves this and my only hesitation is that she won in a surprise only a few years ago. How many times would the Academy allow Colman to upset over Glenn Close, anyways?

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. The Father
2. Nomadland
3. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
4. One Night in Miami
5. The White Tiger

I think this race is closer between "Father" and "Nomad" than we believe. Where Zhao's film is slow, winding, plotless, "The Father" is full of slight of hand and sharp dialogue. It's the director's own adaptation of his play. It's the more writerly work - but are voters going to see Nomadland and check it without a moment's hesitation? For now, I predict "The Father's" witty approach will sneak out a victory - and as sad as that sounds, Zhao is still going home with at least 2 Oscars. I put Borat so high only because the bottom two underperformed and with this being Cohen's third nomination (along with a slew of writers on board... 9 nominated writers, to be exact), maybe this could be the odd category out where voters say (excuse me), "fuck it." 

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. Promising Young Woman
2. Minari
3. Trial of the Chicago 7
4. Sound of Metal
5. Judas and the Black Messiah

While it's not my favorite screenplay, there is still the narrative that no female has won for screenwriting since Diablo Cody in 2007 (Juno) and now we have a year when 2 female writers have a chance at winning in both categories. It's certainly the most ambitious of the nominees. Also the one with a few major plot twists. While Sorkin won for "Trial" at the Globes, he has certainly written better screenplays in his sleep. Chung's personal story in "Minari" could upset, but of the two writing categories, this seems like the more locked option. 

BEST FILM EDITING

1. Trial of the Chicago 7
2. Sound of Metal
3. Promising Young Woman
4. The Father
5. Nomadland

This is an updated prediction from the original post. With Trial winning the ACE Eddie Award (not 100% accurate, but still a good forecaster), I have switched from "Sound" which always felt like an odd choice to win in this category. The logic is that Sound and Editing are often tied, and no film since "The Departed" has won Editing without a sound nomination. Metal has won most of the precursors, but I was never able to understand why that film would be heralded as an achievement in film editing versus sound design. With Trial's victory, this feels like a safer choice - with crosscutting back and forth through time and scenes. This allows every Best Picture nominee to walk away with at least 1 trophy each (should everything play out). My personal pick would still be Promising Young Woman, a messy film yes, but razor sharp in its assembly. 

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
2. Emma
3. Mank
4. Pinnochio
5. Mulan

Another category where I have zero empirical evidence to back my claims. "Mank" is the sole Best Picture nominee here, but black and white movies don't fare well here unless they're called "The Artist." "Ma Rainey" has been racking up the tech precursors, and with its period setting it seems logical here (however it's tiny in scope and almost every character has only 1 costume in the film). "Emma" seems more logical... Period, British, etc, but then I remember how my ass was handed to me for predicting "The Favourite" over "Black Panther." Also, who even saw "Emma?" At least voters would have seen "Ma" in order to see these nominated performances. 

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. Mank
2. The Father
3. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
4. News of the World
5. Tenet

And here I go picking a black and white nominee. Why? I guess because the film (inspired by the behind-the-scenes of the writing of "Citizen Kane") draws from many historical sets as well as those iconic locations in Kane. Also because there's no other clear front-runner here. I would say typically don't pick the contemporary nominee here, but "The Father" uses art direction in such a specific way to confuse the audience that actually maybe it's closer to winning than I'm giving it credit. Also, Production Design & Costumes are almost always tied - meaning you need a nomination in both to even being considered to win. This isn't a rule- just a weird coincidence people started noticing in recent years. That bodes well for films starting with the letter M. 

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

1. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
2. Pinnochio
3. Hilbilly Elegy
4. Mank
5. Emma

To be honest, "Hibilly" being nominated here scares me when considering Glenn Close an upset. Makeup and acting are often closely tied. Iron Lady, La Vie En Rose, Les Mis, Dallas Buyer's Club, etc. Then again, maybe this should signal I should be predicting Viola over Anra Day in Actress... The conundrum...  "Ma Rainey" won the guild, and while it doesn't have very showy prosthetic work, my mind still races to that sweaty, makeup-drenched face of Viola Davis, silver teeth and all, to convince me that is the probable winner. "Pinnochio" is that prosthetic-driven feature that might win, but then again, I hadn't even heard of this movie prior to nominations, and I'm sure you hadn't, either. Case closed. 

BEST SOUND

1. Sound of Metal
2. Soul
3. News of the World
4. Mank
5. Greyhound

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1. Soul
2. Minari
3. Mank
4. News of the World
5. Da 5 Bloods

When I saw "Soul," I specifically asked them not to turn off the TV until I could see who composed the music. I was that impressed. In retrospect, I can't think of a single melody or tune that stuck out, nor could I even describe the style of music. Still, that initial gut reaction would have me pick "Soul" out of all the nominees, although "Minari" might be a close second. Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross are double-nominated here (Mank & Soul), and while they might have vote-splitting, "Soul" has taken virtually every award thus far. John Batiste is the third nominee for the film. Trent & Atticus are the most recent winners in this category to share the award (more than one composer) for "Social Network." "The Last Emperor" in 1987 is the last victor to have 3 nominees. 

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1. "Husavik" (Eurovision Song Contest)
2. "Speak Now" (One Night in Miami)
3. "Io Si" (The Life Ahead)
4. "Fight for You" (Judas and the Black Messiah)
5. "Hear My Voice" (Trial of the Chicago 7)

I'm kind of sick of the "message" songs that play over credits being so consistently nominated here. It happens year after year.  They're so boring. What happened to the good old days of "My Heart Will Go On" or "Let It Go" or any number of radio hits? I kind of love this category though for the ease with which you can screen all the nominees. Take 15 minutes and listen. What's stopping you? My favorite is the beautiful Italian ballad "Io Si" by always-a-nominee-never-a-winner Diane Warren. This is her 12th nomination. Could she take it? It won the Globe (but that doesn't mean a whole lot). Another part of me feels like the cheesy pop style of "Husavik" really sets that song apart and could drive a surprise win for a comedy film. "Speak Now" is actually lovely, somber, with Leslie Odom Jr's vocals melting right off the screen. Could it win, though? 4 & 5 are simply forgettable, enough said. 

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. Nomadland
2. Mank
3. Judas and the Black Messiah
4. News of the World
5. Trial of the Chicago 7

How was "Trial" even nominated here? This is an easy win for "Nomadland." This award almost always goes to the Best Picture nominee of the bunch, and it helps to have a Visual Effects nomination. Luckily, "Mank" missed that nom, though it did just surprise at the Cinematography Guild. Black and white is hard to resist, but Nomad feels very much like the lock here. 

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1. Tenet
2. The Midnight Sky
3. Mulan
4. The One and Only Ivan
5. Love and Monsters

What even are half these films? "Tenet" is the only movie that fits the bill in this category and it's the most widely seen. Many of its effects were actually quite impressive, too. How many Christopher Nolan movies have won this award, already? "Midnight Sky" has picked up a few precursors here and there so don't be surprised to see it win. 

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1. Soul
2. Wolfwalkers
3. Onward
4. Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon
5. Over the Moon

Piece of cake. 

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

1. Another Round
2. Quo Vadis, Aida?
3. The Man Who Sold His Skin
4. Collective
5. Better Days

The second consecutive year where a documentary was also nominated for International Feature (Collective). No matter, the Directing nomination for "Another Round" helps clarify this race immensely. Also - this is the third year in a row in which the winner here would have also been nominated for Best Director (and up until now, they all won that award, too...). I may switch to "Quo Vadis, Aida," a movie I think is the best I saw all year - it's powerful and emotional, and feels more important than a story of a few high school teachers getting drunk on a daily basis. We'll see. For now, it's "Another Round." 

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. My Octopus Teacher
2. Crip Camp
3. Time
4. The Mole Agent
5. Collective

What might have been up in the air has been largely settled with the surprising precursor sweep of "Octopus Teacher" (which I found somewhat dull... Besides the point). Oftentimes it's the odd film out that wins. A film about a sea creature certainly fits the bill. It also doesn't hurt to be so largely available on Netflix (a studio that has won in this category before, don't forget). 

BEST DOCUMENTARY, SHORT SUBJECT

1. A Concerto Is A Conversation
2. A Love Song for Latasha
3. Colette
4. Do Not Split
5. Hunger Ward

The old trend used to be to pick the Holocaust film among the shorts (Colette), but that fad has begun to fade. Our current trend? Pick the film with the most eye-catching title (Learning to Skateboard In A Warzone If You're a Girl, Period, End of Sentence, etc). Latasha features on Netflix but I don't know how good of a film it is overall. Pick Concerto. It has ties to recent Best Picture winner "Green Book" and it apparently a lovely story among a slab of nominees that are increasingly depressing. 

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

1. The Letter Room
2. Feeling Through
3. Two Distant Strangers
4. The Present
5. White Eye

I finally saw all 5 and I am sticking with the established front-runner. Aside from the actually terrible "Two Distant Strangers" (suffering tonal and taste problems galore), the other 4 are all fairly worthy nominees. Strangers still has a chance given the recent news (it's essentially a story about a black man getting shot and killed day after day a-la Groundhog's Day.... Yikes). The Letter Room was the most accomplished to me - starring Oscar Isaac. It isn't as dark as the others, and it balances romance, comedy, and the weight of its subject matter with ease. I am borderline on predicting Feeling Through - the most visually interesting film, and a story of a blind and deaf man being helped home by a homeless youth. It's uplifting if not a bit cheesy. To be honest, it feels right up the voters' alley and already feels like a winner. The Present and White Eye are foreign, and as shallow as it sounds, it's rare for a foreign film to win here when matched against those in the English language. 

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

1. If Anything Happens I Love You
2. Burrow
3. Opera
4. Genius Loci
5. Yes-People

The odds on favorite is "If Anything Happens," and now having seen all 5 this choice makes sense. My favorite is Opera - a wildly original 9-minute film that is quite frankly impossible to describe and utterly compelling. Genius Loci is beautifully-drawn but feels very messy and absurd. Burrow, the one with cute animals, might have a shot - but the animation and story is nothing to write home about. I loved Yes People, but again, it's foreign - and those have a hard time in the short category no matter which category. This is a fairly easy call.