94th Oscar Predictions

 

This has felt like the longest Oscar season I can remember (though last year I seem to recall the Oscars happened in April). I'm ready to move on! The crop of 2021 movies was certainly more vast and rewarding than the year previous (Nomadland as the pinnacle of the movie year will always feel a bit off). Once again we have 10 Best Picture nominees (the first time since 2010), yet for the first time - the Oscars have decided to award 8 Oscars before the ceremony airs. Many categories are as wide open as I can remember, and I assume the prolonged season and shuffling of precursor awards & dates had a lot to do with it. Here we go:

 

 

 BEST PICTURE

I remember when it was almost unspeakable to imagine Argo winning without a Best Director nomination.  Now here we are with a front-runner missing virtually everything a film would need.

It's another David v Goliath situation (I remember Parasite v 1917, Roma v Green Book, Social Network v King's Speech, etc). It's all the more curious in that the "little indie movie that could" option (CODA) has run the race without key nominations in Best Editing AND Best Director or ANY below the line nominations- stats that even a few years ago would have spelled utter doom for a movie's Best Picture potential. In fact, I think it's been almost 90 years since a movie won the big prize without both nominations (Grand Hotel), and certainly no film in the modern era has won Best Picture while also being snubbed by the Director's Guild (DGA). 

CODA, though, seems to be the one movie that could be an exception to these rules. Why? The little Sundance premiere has had a steady run to the top all season. It took SAG in a beautiful moment with its largely deaf cast. It's an ultimate crowd-pleaser that has near universal appeal. Is it possible that a little movie set in a little New England town can be generally loved by voters and still have only received 3 nominations? Sure. Maybe it was #6 in editing, in original song, in actress... We will never know. Troy Kotsur is guaranteed a win, and it's screenplay (while not a formidable contender in comparison to Power of the Dog), it's still competitive. In the last 10 years, think of all the movies that won Best Picture with a screenplay and acting win? Moonlight, Green Book, 12 Years a Slave.... CODA fits right in. It also shocked some people (not me) by winning PGA - which uses the same preferential voting system as Best Picture at the Oscars. Not 100%, but still telling.

I absolutely prefer Power of the Dog for its mythic take on the west and its challenging and dangerous themes. The film is still a strong contender - and frankly having received a whopping 12 nominations and leading the pack - perhaps its power is still there afterall. It took DGA. It has 4 acting nominations. The 'controversy' surrounding this film has been weak and hatred for it seems to be among a small handful of homophobic elders. I think on paper, Power of the Dog is still technically the one to beat and has the better odds. This race feels most like The Departed v Little Miss Sunshine, the latter of which picked up PGA, SAG (but still got DGA in a somewhat depressing stat for CODA). The little indie that could versus the overdue director in a more serious film. Remember which one of those films won the big prize?

Belfast's chances have sunk month by month - I wouldn't even think of it as a threat anymore. The bigger upset chance might lie with King Richard, which has key nominations in acting, editing, and screenplay. We know it's going to win at least 1 award, too. The other films are so happy to just be nominated. I can't see a single other film outside the top 2 winning. I won't say it's impossible, but it's basically impossible. 

I'm reminded of 2019 when my 2 favorite movies of the year (Parasite & 1917) were the frontrunners for Best Picture. While my favorite movie of this year isn't nominated (Worst Person In The World), these top 2 are my favorites of the 10 nominees. I will be thrilled with either outcome - and if CODA wins, I will be even more elated to have all these "rules" and stats for what it takes to win an Oscar get thrown out the window. This makes the season all the more fun. Some people are rumbling that a CODA win would resemble an upset along the lines of Crash. That's all good and well, except for once, we would actually have a good movie winning.

1. CODA
   
2. The Power of the Dog
3. King Richard
   
4. Belfast
5. Dune
6. West Side Story
7. Licorice Pizza
8. Don't Look Up
9. Drive My Car
10. Nightmare Alley

BEST DIRECTOR

 

Lock it up. I'm not even rearranging the nominees out of the copy-and-paste order I found online. I'm so excited to have back-to-back women winning Best Director, and Campion has been long overdue since last time she faced off against Spielberg for her haunting "The Piano." Can't wait for her speech. Curiously, the film with the most nominations might sneak off with just this one trophy (the last film to win only Best Director was The Graduate in 1967...)

 

By the way, has anyone considered the fact that the two Best Picture frontrunners are directed by women? 

1. Jane Campion, "The Power of the Dog"
2. Kenneth Branagh, "Belfast"
3. Steven Spielberg, "West Side Story"
4. Paul Thomas Anderson, "Licorice Pizza"
5. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, "Drive My Car" 

 

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

 

I love LOVE the fact that for the second year in a row, we have a Best Actress race that is anything but predictable. Where last year there was not a SINGLE nominee who won more than a single of the precursors, here we at least have Chastain picking up both Critic's Choice and SAG (so deserved, by the way). Kidman was an early frontrunner for her role as Lucy by winning the Golden Globe, but her lack of momentum (I think) chalks up to the fact that the Golden Globes love Aaron Sorkin and... that's it. NONE of these nominees showed up at BAFTA where Joanna Scanlan snuck away with her trophy, and critics all season were only singing the praises of one nominee: Kristen Stewart (who was so lucky to get this nomination after so many snubs by the industry. Who wins? I don't know for sure, but I'm playing it safe and picking Jessica Chastain - if only because so many other categories are curiously not predictable. She plays a real woman, she is hidden under makeup, she sings, she runs the gamut of emotions. It's a wonderful performance that many will say is over the top. Momentum has shifted so many times, and I still feel strongly that the passion for Stewart could get her a shocker of an upset, despite her earlier losses. The nomination was the biggest challenge for her. It will be a photo finish.

** since writing, we have gotten a glimpse at the anonymous Oscar ballots (which certainly shouldn’t be used as predictors… we have barely 10 or 20 to go off of), and by a large margin Penelope Cruz has stormed the race. She is unchallenged against most of these women, and while I wouldn’t predict her, perhaps there’s more passion for her to get Oscar #2 than we thought.

1. Jessica Chastain, "The Eyes of Tammy Faye"
   
2. Penelope Cruz, "Parallel Mothers"
3. Kristen Stewart, "Spencer"
4. Nicole Kidman, "Being the Ricardos"
5. Olivia Colman, "The Lost Daughter"

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

I, for one, am thrilled for Will Smith to finally win. He's been so wonderful for so long and it's been easy to look him over as simply a movie star. His performance in King Richard is a great transformation that genuinely moved me and it my favorite of the bunch. Villains don't often win, and Benedict Cumberbatch - though possibly in a Best Picture winner - is going to be trailing Andrew Garfield for his heartfelt and musical performance. Had Tick Tick Boom got a Best Picture nomination (a snub, I tell you), I would argue he was more competitive. No matter. Smith won the Globe, Critic's Choice, SAG, BAFTA... He's going all the way.

1. Will Smith, "King Richard"
2. Andrew Garfield, "Tick, Tick... Boom"
   
3. Benedict Cumberbatch, "The Power of the Dog"
4. Denzel Washington, "The Tragedy of Macbeth"
5. Javier Bardem, "Being the Ricardos"

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

 

Lock this win up. 

1. Ariana DeBose, "West Side Story"
2. Kristen Dunst, "The Power of the Dog"
3. Aunjanue Ellis, "King Richard"
4. Jessie Buckley, "The Lost Daughter"
5. Judi Dench, "Belfast"

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

 

Lock this win up, too. Where Kodi was picking up steam with Critics and the Golden Globes, Kotsur has steamrolled through this season winning every award he needed. His speeches are wonderful, and he's going to be only the second deaf actor to win an Oscar (after his onscreen wife, Marlee Matlin). I'm excited for his speech the most. 

1. Troy Kotsur, "CODA"
2. Kodi Smit-McPhee, "The Power of the Dog"
3. Ciaran Hinds, "Belfast"
4. Jesse Plemons, "The Power of the Dog"
5. JK Simmons, "Being the Ricardos"

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

 

I'm going all in on this CODA train, and I still have to use logic that for a movie to win Best Picture, it needs to win 3 awards (Spotlight was the rare exception with 2). More so than Director, Best Screenplay has been a stronger predictor of whether a movie can win Best Picture or not. All the recent upsets won for writing (Green Book, Parasite, Moonlight, Spotlight, Crash...) If Power of the Dog wins, it will certainly be the most deserving (and Campion will have won an Oscar for both original and adapted works). It reminds of of the La La Land year when voters were able to see past the 'sweep' mentality and still give the Oscar to Manchester by the Ses, which was clearly the more writerly, accomplished script.... I hold out some hope for Dog. 

 

Still, CODA surprised at BAFTA with a screenplay win, and if voters are ready to crown it as the best of the year, why not make it a clean sweep and give it all 3 of its nominations? If CODA loses, I won't count out its chances to win Picture. It will just be all the more surprising. If it wins, CODA will be the first Best Picture winner since Return of the King to sweep the Oscars (though 3 versus 11 is quite a difference, of course...)

1.  CODA
2. The Power of the Dog
3. Drive My Car
4. The Lost Daughter
   
5. Dune

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

 

There's a lot of merit when considering which screenplay the Golden Globes choose to reward (though essentially excommunicated from this year's awards run). They have been spotty, but have called winners like Birdman and Green Book long before those films were considered to win the ultimate Oscar. This year, Belfast was their champion. Many people think that PTA would finally win after 11 nominations for Licorice Pizza, and while he was surprisingly defeated at the Writer's Guild (where Belfast wasn't even eligible, mind you) to Don't Look Up (a fluke, in my opinion), we have to only look back a few years to when The Favourite won WGA and still lost the Oscar to Green Book. 

 

Who wins? This seems like the only place to give Paul Thomas Anderson any love for Pizza, but the film ties for least-nominated among Best Picture nominees, and it's far from his best work. Belfast, which took Critic's Choice - seems like the safe bet. I am a heartbeat away from predicting Worst Person In The World, which anecdotally has the best writing of the bunch among those who have seen all 5 (per anonymous Oscar ballots, casual movie-goers, and film Twitter), but the last time I wanted to predict a non-Best Picture nominee, I fell flat on my face (First Reformed). 

 

I will reluctantly stick with Belfast, as a prize for Kenneth Branagh (who, with this nomination, becomes the person with the most nominations in different categories during his career... He's been nominated in 8 different categories). If Worst Person wins, I'll be annoyed that I wasn't brave enough to take that bet, but ultimately thrilled that the best movie won in the end. 

1. Belfast
2. The Worst Person In The World
   
3. Licorice Pizza
4. Don't Look Up
5. King Richard

BEST EDITING

 

The next 3 categories are certifiably some of the hardest to predict in all the years I've been watching the Oscars.

 

First up is this headache with Best Editing. What do we know about editing winners? They're often tied to the Sound categories (well... category). This bodes well for Dune & Power of the Dog. They're almost always Best Picture nominees (with the occasional Girl With The Dragon Tattoo thrown in). BAFTA has been right the last 2 years in a row (though this won't help us since they gave it to James Bond). In the last 10 years BAFTA has a 60% accuracy. Critics Choice has 50% accuracy - but they too went with the un-nominated West Side Story.  ACE Eddie (Editor's Guild) has an abysmal 40% accuracy this decade - and yet they picked King Richard.

Where does this leave us? I like the ties to Sound - the last 8 winners in a row won either Best Sound Editing or Mixing. We all know who's winning sound this year (*cough* Dune). You have to go all the way back to The Departed in 2006 to find a winner that received no sound nominations. That's a pretty strong run - granted sound did consolidate into 1 category last year. I still feel strongly about Power's changes, despite its glacial pace. Its chapters and very taught storytelling is quietly effective, and I could see it winning more than we expect. 

I still predict Dune, although I find its editing some of the weakest of the bunch. It's an action movie, it's visual effects heavy, its certainly showy. Why not? I'm close to switching to Power, but I'm holding out for more compelling upsets further down.

1. Dune
2. The Power of the Dog
3. Tick, Tick... Boom!
4. King Richard
5. Don't Look Up

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

 

What is even happening with this category? The first stat that leaps to mind is this category's tie to Visual Effects. 7 movies since 2009 have either won or been nominated for visual effects when winning this category - though in recent years they have gone for more traditional films. Only one film that won Critic's Choice & BAFTA went on to lose this category: last year's Nomadland. You know who won both this year? Dune. (It also JUST won the Cinematography guild to add to its roster).

There's buzz around Ari Wegner possibly becoming the first female winner for Power of the Dog. I certainly think her work is some of the best, and I prefer it to Dune. My question: where has it won? 

This is my Hail Mary moment - that West Side Story takes it. The first time I saw the film, I could not get Janusz Kaminski out of my mind. The shots and framings he created were jaw-dropping. There's a shot of Tony standing in a puddle that might be the best-photographed shot I've ever seen. He hasn't won since the 1990's. West Side Story has only grown in stature and buzz since releasing on streaming. I absolutely can see this film winning more than 1 award, and the one thing I keep hearing about this movie is "look at that shot.... Look at that." I fully expect Dune to be announced, but if I get this right, I just want to say I knew it from the beginning.

1. West Side Story
2. Dune
   
3. The Power of the Dog
4. The Tragedy of Macbeth
5. Nightmare Alley

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

 

And the last of the "what is happening" categories. Dune is favored to win. I almost want to predict it just so I don't lose on too many long-shots. It has won most of the Art Director's awards, and its only firm competition is Nightmare Alley, and this is where I am held up. 

 

The last 2 Guillermo del Toro movies have won in this category, and you certainly can't deny that the strength of Nightmare Alley is its visuals. From the circus community to the lavish upscale offices in the noir-inspired city, this is a good looking film. Personally, I favor Dune for it's dark hallways and gloomy interiors, but I can see this being one of those years where every Best Picture nominee (well, almost every one... sorry Licorice Pizza) walks away with at least one. Also, Dune's back half is almost entirely in the desert - and its showiest moments come at the very top. Alley continues to build and build. The safe bet is Dune, but I'm sensing upset #2.

1. Nightmare Alley
   
2. Dune
3. West Side Story
4. The Power of the Dog
5. The Tragedy of Macbeth

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

 

Ever since I saw Cruella drive off on the back of a garbage truck with a dress and a 50-foot long train, I knew this was a done deal. Dune is a close second for its detailed and surprisingly beautiful costumes which helped create an other-worldly feeling almost more than any other aspect. 

1. Cruella
2. Dune
3. West Side Story
4. Nightmare Alley
5. Cyrano

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

 

I think Tammy Faye was maybe the worst of these nominees, but I was convinced when BAFTA awarded it even though Chastain was not even nominated. It's weird, oftentimes fake-looking makeup that is caked on our actors like a mask - but it's been winning. Who am I to argue with that? Dune feels like it should be more of a front-runner, but besides Stellan Skarsgard's fat-suit, it's hard to find another character with a significant enough makeup transformation to justify a win here.  It's still a strong second. I doubt the Jared Leto transformation is enough to carry that whole film to victory. Cruella is... fine. Coming 2 America is another Norbit - a worthy nominee, but rarely do 'Nutty Professor' style nominees win.

1. The Eyes of Tammy Faye
   
2. Dune
3. House of Gucci
4. Cruella
5. Coming 2 America

BEST SOUND

 

Sound and editing have been in lock step for several years now - and even in nailbiter close calls like last year's Sound of Metal, what won sound ended up helping its win in editing. For this reason Dune is the likeliest of winners, and deservedly so. Power of the Dog's inclusion here was curious but very rewarding - and gives me hope that it could pull off a Best Editing upset. 

1. Dune
2. No Time To Die
3. West Side Story
4. Belfast
5. The Power of the Dog

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

 

Dune. Done. 

1. Dune
2. No Time to Die
3. Spider-Man: No Way Home
4. Free Guy
5. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

 

Dune. Done. It's criminal that Hans Zimmer's long-awaited second Oscar win will be filmed before the ceremony even takes place and spliced into the ceremony (time allowing). What a bafflingly-bad decision.

1. Dune
2. The Power of the Dog
3. Encanto
4. Don't Look Up
5. Parallel Mothers

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

 

I thought Lin Manuel Miranda would have been a lock - this is certainly the best song from Encanto (in my opinion), but yet again we have a James Bond theme that is sweeping, and Billie & Finneas seem like solidly-locked (albeit boring) frontrunners. I want to predict Encanto - but no one is picking Dos Oruguitas for awards. I suspect Miranda's time for EGOT is still coming soon. 

1.  "No Time to Die," No Time to Die
2. "Dos Oruguitas," Encanto
3. "Be Alive," King Richard
4. "Down to Joy," Belfast
5. "Somehow You Do," Somehow You Do

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

 

How I would love for an upset by Worst Person, but you don't bet against a film that gets Picture, Director, and Screenplay nominations. They never lose.  

1. Drive My Car
2. The Worst Person In The World
3. Flee
4. The Hand of God
5. Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

 

An amazing film is about to win the Oscar, and I can't wait. Summer of Soul's biggest hurdle was the nomination itself (front-runners are notoriously snubbed for even a nomination). Flee is great, but is not the best of these 5. 

1. Summer of Soul
2. Flee
3. Ascension
4. Attica
5. Writing With Fire

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

 

I can't believe Encanto, one of Disney's most bland, boring, generic movies is sweeping its way to the Oscar - especially over choices like Flee and Mitchells, but aside from the rare Mitchell's upset, Encanto seems determined to cross the finish line with all the might of Disney behind it. I don't love it, but sometimes this category and me have varying opinions of 'best of the year.'

1. Encanto
2. The Mitchells vs. the Machines
3. Flee
   
4. Luca
5. Raya and the Last Dragon

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

 

Many people are predicting Queen of Basketball to win, and with this category's history of winners with catchy titles (Period End of Sentence, Heaven is a Traffic Jam, Learning to Skateboard In A Warzone If You're A Girl, etc) and the general consensus - Queen of Basketball seems like a logical, if unresearched, guess. 

1.  The Queen of Basketball
2. Audible
3. Lead Me Home
4. Three Songs for Benazir
5. When We Were Bullies

BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT

 

By all accounts, the good will for Riz Ahmed might carry The Long Goodbye to a victory on Sunday night, and having not seen the nominees this year - I will allow general consensus to guide this victory. 

1. The Long Goodbye
2. Please Hold
3. The Dress
   
4. Ala Kachuu - Take and Run
5. On My Mind

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

 

Cute animals often (not always) help. Robin Robin has Netflix behind it, and the other 4 nominees are DOUR. Some of the darkest films of the year are hidden in this category. Robin stands out for that reason alone, but if there’s an upset, I suspect Bestia (about a woman’s dark visions while serving in a corrupt 1970’s Chilean government group which tortured individuals (its an animated film, let me remind you) might benefit for its short run time and haunting visuals. The folks who nominated these films were certainly feeling something that day…

1.  Robin Robin
2. Bestia
3. The Windshield Wiper
4. Boxballet
5. Affairs of the Art