All races have ended, all guild awards are out, all awards shows have aired, minus the big one: The Oscars. It's been a crazy, nonsensical, surprising awards season, and though many of the top races are still unsure (can we talk about Best Picture), as always, here are MoJo's official predictions. Use them at your discretion, and let's see how we do. Drumroll, please:
BEST PICTURE
With the bizarre splitting of major guild & critics awards between 12 Years a Slave, Gravity, and American Hustle, it's a wonder anyone knows what the Hell is going to win here. Up until now, Gravity seemed like a lock. Afterall, it won the DGA, and if you should trust any award, that's the one. With the BAFTA results in, and 12 Years and Gravity splitting Best Picture and Director yet again, perhaps that's the only sure thing we know: that Gravity will win the technical awards, and 12 Years will, as it has all season, come out on top in the end. It's an unprecedented race, and perhaps this year for the first time in 79 years, a movie could win ONLY Best Picture on Oscar night...
1. 12 Years a Slave
2. Gravity
3. American Hustle
4. The Wolf of Wall Street
5. Philomena
6. Nebraska
7. Dallas Buyers Club
8. Captain Phillips
9. Her
BEST DIRECTOR
Again with the DGA, you should trust those results, and here is a category where there doesn't seem like a possibility for upset. It's so rare that you see a split between the top two awards, and perhaps it's foolish to knowingly expect a split. Best Picture is up in the air, but this category seems pretty much cemented.
1. Gravity (Alfonso Cuaron)
2. 12 Years a Slave (Steve McQueen)
3. The Wolf of Wall Street (Martin Scorsese)
4. David O. Russell (American Hustle)
5. Alexander Payne (Nebraska)
BEST ACTOR
What chance Leo had of winning was lost when Chiwetel Ejiofor won the BAFTA. While he was snubbed for those awards, this award belongs to Matthew McConaughey, with Ejiofor serving as the tiniest bit of spoiler. Think of this category as Sandra Bullock in The Blind Side. It's history repeating itself all over again.
1. Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club)
2. Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave)
3. Leonardo DiCaprio (The Wolf of Wall Street)
4. Bruce Dern (Nebraska)
5. Christian Bale (American Hustle)
BEST ACTRESS
Biggest. Lock. Of. The. Night. (And no, the Woody Allen controversy is not going to hurt her odds, either).
1. Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine)
2. Amy Adams (American Hustle)
3. Sandra Bullock (Gravity)
4. Judi Dench (Philomena)
5. Meryl Streep (August: Osage County)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
He's won all (and do we mean ALL) of the awards this season. It seems foolish to expect him to miss out here. Barkhad Abdi was a nice win at BAFTA, but Leto was not nominated. If anything, Abdi might now be our 'runner-up' in this category.
1. Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club)
2. Barkhad Abdi (Captain Phillips)
3. Michael Fassbender (12 Years a Slave)
4. Bradley Cooper (American Hustle)
5. Jonah Hill (The Wolf of Wall Street)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
J-Law vs. Lupita. The acting race of the year. Lupita has been the lock since she won the SAG Award not long ago. However, with Jennifer Lawrence recently besting her at the BAFTA's (and a Golden Globe to boot), it's perhaps a closer race than we thought. In the end, does the Academy want to award Jennifer Lawrence two consecutive years and make her the youngest double-Oscar winner in history? That's pretty bold, especially when you look at the actual performances. June Squibb could still surprise as the big winner on the night with her scene-stealing work, but that's a risky bet and almost impossible to imagine. Perhaps the closest race of the night after Best Picture. It's rare to win the Globe and BAFTS and NOT the Oscar....
1. Lupita N'yongo (12 Years a Slave)
2. Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle)
3. June Squibb (Nebraska)
4. Sally Hawkins (Blue Jasmine)
5. Julia Roberts (August: Osage County)
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Yes, we're predicting American Hustle to go 0-10 for Oscars this year. This is the film's one chance at an Oscar, and while it's a viable win for "overdue" director/writer David O. Russell, Her has collected most of the writing awards, including the Golden Globe and Writer's Guild. It's the more creative, cohesive piece, and would give Her director Spike Jonze HIS overdue Oscar, instead.
1. Her
2. American Hustle
3. Dallas Buyers CLub
4. Nebraska
5. Blue Jasmine
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Best Picture, as a rule, generally needs to win at LEAST 3 total awards on the night. With 12 Years a Slave our predicted winner, Picture, Supporting Actress, and Screenplay are most likely going to be those awards. Out of all of the film's nominations, Screenplay is the biggest lock for the film to not go home empty-handed. Philomena has been sneaking up all season long, and recently won the BAFTA equivalent. 12 Years could still win Best Picture if it misses here, but honestly, the script itself seems too powerful to be overlooked.
1. 12 Years a Slave
2. Philomena
3. Before Midnight
4. Captain Phillips
5. The Wolf of Wall Street
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Perhaps the second-biggest lock of the night. It's made $1 billion at the box office and is a critical favorite. It's a return to form for the Disney Studio. What movie is that, do you ask?:
1. Frozen
2. The Wind Rises
3. Ernest and Celestine
4. Despicable Me 2
5. The Croods
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
The general consensus is that it's a close race between The Great Beauty, The Broken Circle Breakdown, and perhaps The Hunt. Out of these three, one film has won the majority of the awards, and with "Beauty" in the title, perhaps Oscars won't be able to refuse (American Beauty, Beauty and the Beast, Beautiful Mind, etc).
1. The Great Beauty
2. The Hunt
3. The Broken Circle Breakdown
4. Omar
5. The Missing Picture
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Again, a close race between a critical favorite and a crowd-pleaser. We've seen the Oscar go to both heavy-handed films and lighter fare, and this year the one documentary everyone seems to be talking about is The Act of Killing. Don't be surprised to see Oscar pick 20 Feet from Stardom in order to lighten the mood of the evening, or perhaps the Netflix-original The Square... Out of the 5 nominees, Killing represents both a new style of documentary features as well as a chilling, haunting story that most will find hard to forget.
1. The Act of Killing
2. 20 Feet From Stardom
3. The Square
4. Dirty Wars
5. Cutie and the Boxer
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
One of last year's sole upsets came in this category when Lincoln beat out the flashier Anna Karenina. Who saw that coming? Logical senses seem to indicate the elaborate mansions and apartment sets in Gatsby has it locked. Gravity's sets were too singular, Her may be too 'modern,' and American Hustle wasn't remembered for its sets.
1. The Great Gatsby
2. 12 Years a Slave
3. Gravity
4. Her
5. American Hustle
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
A few years ago we predicted Emmanuel Lubezki to win for The Tree of Life (it was, in our opinion, one of the biggest locks of the night). Of course he failed to win. Honestly this year, there truly seems to be no way he can lose. Gravity has everything going for it: Best Picture nominee, Best Visual Effects Oscar winner (presumably), IMAX... Since 2009 with Avatar, EVERY winner in this category has been a visual effects-driven, fantastical, Best Picture nominee. It seems foolish to bet against it now.
1. Gravity
2. Prisoners
3. Inside Llewyn Davis
4. The Grandmaster
5. Nebraska
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
The bigger the costume, the better your chances are (Marie Antoinette, Anna Karenina, Amadeus, etc). If you don't have the biggest, being set in the Roaring 20's is also beneficial (see: The Artist, The Aviator, Chicago, etc). Perhaps it wasn't the best-reviewed film of the year, but the stand-out film for costumes seems to be (in everyone's mind) Gatsby. 12 Years won the equivalent guild award - which could be telling, especially if we're looking for another Oscar win for Slave.
1. The Great Gatsby
2. 12 Years a Slave
3. American Hustle
4. The Invisible Woman
5. The Grandmaster
BEST EDITING
So-called 'experts' believe this category is locked up for Gravity. Nonsense. The film relies on long, singular shots, and its strength is not in editing. The flashier films usually win, and the shorter the shots, the better. Captain Phillips has won the majority of editing awards, and therefore seems safely ahead to win here.
1. Captain Phillips
2. American Hustle
3. Gravity
4. 12 Years a Slave
5. Dallas Buyers Club
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
Okay, you have to take a risk every now and again. While the nominees here are not the greatest of candidates, most feel like Dallas Buyers Club is the winner. Aside from dramatic weight loss, was there really anything special about this film's makeup? No. Cheap makeup and a bad wig does not win you an Oscar. The prime candidates are our two dark-horses: comedies that in no way seem like Oscar caliber. Bad Grandpa would make sense, but the Razzie-nominated Lone Ranger benefited from extreme old-age makeup for Johnny Depp as well as a wide variety of traditional makeup and hairstyles. Why isn't this the obvious choice? (And if you think Oscars won't reward a film so poorly-reviewed, remember that Harry & the Hendersons & The Nutty Professor are both Oscar-winners)
1. The Lone Ranger
2. Bad Grandpa
3. Dallas Buyers Club
BEST SCORE
Winners here are almost always Best Picture nominees (almost). Gravity is the safe bet, and indeed, it would be the smartest choice to mark on your ballot. There seems to be thoughts that Philomena could win here (the one place that film seems to be able to win an Oscar), but Alexander Desplat is always a bridesmaid, never the bride in this category, and in recent years, winners seem to generally be newcomers to film. Following in the footsteps of The Social Network, perhaps the electronic score for Her could be the big upset of the night. To be safe, pick Gravity.
1. Gravity
2. Philomena
3. Her
4. Saving Mr Banks
5. The Book Thief
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Disney films used to win this category like it was nobody's business (The Little Mermaid, Aladdin, The Lion King, Beauty and the Beast, Pochahontas...) Up to a point I was betting on Mandela to win here, since it's a song by U2 with a message. Screw that. Frozen is one of the year's highest-grossing films, critically acclaimed, and it's soundtrack is a best-seller. It seems like too-easy of a choice for voters and too much of a crowd pleaser to pass up.
1. "Let It Go" (Frozen)
2. "Ordinary Love" (Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom)
3. "The Moon Song" (Her)
4. "Happy" (Despicable Me 2)
BEST SOUND EDITING
Come on, this is easy.
1. Gravity
2. Captain Phillips
3. Lone Survivor
4. All Is Lost
5. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
BEST SOUND MIXING
Gravity was tailor-made to win these technical Oscars.
1. Gravity
2. Captain Phillips
3. Lone Survivor
4. Inside Llewyn Davis
5. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
I take back what I said about Cinematography. THIS is the biggest lock of the night. Bet anything you want.
1. Gravity
2. The Lone Ranger
3. Star Trek Into Darkness
4. Iron Man 3
5. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
BEST ANIMATED SHORT
Disney has some terrible luck in this category generally speaking, and Mickey Mouse has never won himself a Golden Statue. Paperman did win last year however, but general consensus seems to favor more daring films like Mr Hublot and Feral.
1. Mr Hublot
2. Feral
3. Get A Horse
4. Room on the Broom
5. Possessions
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
You know how the Oscars love films about the Holocaust? We actually have a nominee this year about the Holocaust, and it's apparently a delightful little movie on top of that. There is also a timely documentary about homophobia, but this seems like an obvious choice.
*The woman in the film, Alice Herz-Sommer, was the oldest-surviving Holocaust victim and just passed away when voting began. If that isn't a slam-dunk for a win than I don't know what is.
1. The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life
2. Facing Fear
3. Prison Terminal: Last Days of Private Jack Hall
4. Cavedigger
5. Karama Has No Walls
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
Who knows? (Actually, most people lean towards the Voorman Problem, so let's just go with that).
1. The Voorman Problem
2. Helium
3. Just Before Losing Everything
4. Do I Have to Take Care of Everything
5. Aquel No Era Yo (That Wasn't Me)
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