State of the Oscar Race

With Oscar nominations officially out and several key awards already presented (The Golden Globes & Critics Choice), let's take a look at the current nominees in a few categories and attempt to figure out who may end up winning the Oscar. It's a boring year for the Academy, and several races already appear over - though the various snubs and inclusions we saw on nomination morning was more than enough to keep some of these categories exciting. 

BEST PICTURE

The first time since the race has expanded to 10 potential nominees that we have seen only 8 films nominated. The one film that could have been a surprise was American Sniper, but after seeing it nominated by both the Producer's & Director's Guild, this was to be expected. Notable snubs included Gone Girl, Nightcrawler, and Foxcatcher. Boyhood is essentially all locked up to win (especially since Birdman didn't get the all-important Best Editing nomination usually required of a Best Picture. The Imitation Game was one of the top-nominated films and on paper appears to be a strong contender. Upset to come? Selma received a major slap in the face, nominated only here and Best Original Song. Ouch. 

1. Boyhood

2. The Grand Budapest Hotel

3. Birdman

4. The Imitation Game

5. Whiplash

6. The Theory of Everything

7. American Sniper

8. Selma

BEST DIRECTOR

Again, the snub of Selma's director was somewhat of a shock, as was first-time director Damien Chazelle of Whiplash. Bennett Miller became the first person nominated for Best Director to not have directed a Best Picture nominee in almost 10 years, and the first time since the Best Picture race has been expanded. Richard Linklater is still the one to beat.

1. Richard Linklater (Boyhood)

2. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu (Birdman)

3. Wes Anderson (The Grand Budapest Hotel)

4. Morten Tyldum (The Imitation Game)

5. Bennett Miller (Foxcatcher)

BEST ACTOR

While both Eddie Redmayne and Michael Keaton won Golden Globes, Keaton also won the Critics Choice, oftentimes a telling sign of things to come. This has only ever been a 2-horse race, so upsets like the inclusion of Bradley Cooper seem only to spread the wealth. for now, bet on Keaton. 

1. Michael Keaton (Birdman)

2. Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything)

3. Benedict Cumberbatch (The Imitation Game)

4. Bradley Cooper (American Sniper)

5. Steve Carell (Foxcatcher)

BEST ACTRESS

Yay, Marion! One of the year's biggest snubs was the omission of Jennifer Aniston in Lead Actress for Cake. It seems it was just too small of a movie, or perhaps voters simply like Marion Cotillard better, her first nomination since her Oscar win for La Vie En Rose. Julianne Moore has this wrapped up already, and there are no real challengers. 

1. Julianne Moore (Still Alice)

2. Felicity Jones (The Theory of Everything)

3. Reese Witherspoon (Wild)

4. Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl)

5. Marion Cotillard (Two Days, One Night)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

The year's most boring acting race, with all nominees those we had expected to see. J.K. Simmons stands unopposed to his first Oscar win. 

1. JK Simmons (Whiplash)

2. Edward Norton (Birdman)

3. Mark Ruffalo (Foxcatcher)

4. Ethan Hawke (Boyhood)

5. Robert Duvall (The Judge)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Another boring category all locked up. Laura Dern was the surprise on nomination morning, as she was essentially snubbed by almost every other award show and prize. Patricia Arquette has been winning a lot of trophies, and she is only building momentum. 

1. Patricia Arquette (Boyhood)

2. Emma Stone (Birdman)

3. Keira Knightly (The Imitation Game)

4. Meryl Streep (Into The Woods)

5. Laura Dern (Wild)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

This is an extremely difficult category, as the top 3 contenders for Best Picture share the same nomination here. Birdman won the Golden Globe race as well as Critic's Choice. Boyhood is the assumed Best Picture winner. Grand Budapest Hotel is a long-overdue potential win for Wes Anderson. Who will win??

1. Birdman

2. The Grand Budapest Hotel

3. Boyhood

4. Foxcatcher

5. Nightcrawler

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Since all the Best Picture front-runners are original screenplays, this makes adapted a rather interesting category. Originally entered as an Original Screenplay, Academy voters saw it fit to move Whiplash to adapting (since it was based on a short film by the same director). At first it seemed like a bad idea, but looking at the competition, perhaps it's a blessing in disguise. Aside from The Imitation Game, Whiplash looks like it could win this award in a walk. 

1. Whiplash

2. The Imitation Game

3. The Theory of Everything

4. American Sniper

5. Inherent Vice

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

In the snub of the year, The Lego Movie was omitted from this category. How is that even possible? What we are left with is a race with no clear frontrunner, aside from Dragon's recent win at the Golden Globes. This is anyone's guess. 

1. How To Train Your Dragon 2

2. Big Hero 6

3. The Tale of the Princess Kaguya

4. The Boxtrolls

5. Song of the Sea

As the month goes on, we will continue to break down the nominees and make sense of this year's race. Until then - get to the movies!