OUR RATING SYSTEM
(*****) = do NOT miss! This one is as good as they come.
(****) = Fantastic - It's worth the price of the ticket (and then some).
(***) = Average - Nothing really bad, nothing really spectacular...
(**) = Perhaps you should find another movie to see.
(*) = The bottom of the barrel. It would be hard to find something less entertaining or more unworthy of your time.



Maureen (Mo) holds a PhD in marine geophysics (Dr. Maureen, to you) and works for the U.S. Geological Survey in Santa Cruz, CA. Maureen enjoys the outdoors (skiing, swimming, hiking, camping), dogs, cooking, singing, getting into (and out of) uncomfortable situations, and most importantly, watching quality movies. She makes a point of seeing as many Oscar-nominated films as possible each year and (correctly) predicting the winners. Her role on this blog is primarily as an advisor, collaborator, and "chime in"-er.

John (Jo) holds a Bachelor's Degree in Nursing, as well as a Bachelor of Arts degree in Film Studies. He currently lives in Chicago, Illinois and works as a nurse. His one true obsession in life is movies... The good, the bad, and everything in between. Other than that, he is busy caring for his cat, painting, writing, exploring Chicago, and debating on whether or not to worship Tilda Swinton as a deity. John is the master and commander and primary author of this blog.

Saturday, January 30, 2016

Screen Actor's Guild Awards. What to expect.


The Screen Actor's Guild Awards (SAG) are upon us. Tonight, the biggest guild in movies will pick their winners for acting in film and television, and for the most part, here is one of the best bellwethers for the eventual Oscar winners. There are some notably-tricky categories to pick here, but let's take a peek at what's nominated, who has a chance, and who's a lock.



BEST ENSEMBLE

Beasts of No Nation
The Big Short
Spotlight 
Straight Outta Compton
Trumbo

 Generally speaking, Ensemble is categorized as the award for "Best Picture." Looking at this award historically, it generally predicts the eventual Oscar winner 50% of the time, so this will not give us a lot of insight for the state of the race. The inclusion of films like "Beasts of No Nation" and "Straight Outta Compton" were seen as an upset due to smaller casts and lesser-known actors. Since 2007, no lineup of nominees here has had less correlation with an actual Oscar nomination for Best Picture (when 'No Country For Old Men' was the sole nominee that year. It ended up winning). As Spotlight and Big Short are the only two movies to be nominated for Best Picture, they have the advantage. Let's break it down in even more simple terms: this award frequently goes to comedies (Little Miss Sunshine, American Hustle, Birdman) AND the film with the largest cast generally wins. I think The Big Short is well on its way to another victory.

1. The Big Short
2. Spotlight
3. Trumbo
4. Straight Outta Compton
5. Beasts of No Nation



BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

 Bryan Cranston (Trumbo)
Johnny Depp (Black Mass)
Leonardo DiCaprio (The Revenant)
Michael Fassbender (Steve Jobs)
Eddie Redmayne (The Danish Girl)

 This is the most assured win of the evening, and it will be DiCaprio's first win (surprisingly) from SAG. I hope he has a speech prepared.

1. Leonardo DiCaprio
2. Bryan Cranston
3. Michael Fassbender
4. Eddie Redmayne
5. Johnny Depp



BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

 Cate Blanchett (Carol)
Brie Larson (Room)
Helen Mirren (The Woman in Gold)
Saoirse Ronan (Brooklyn)
Sarah Silverman (I Smile Back)

 Brie Larson has had the buzz all year, and assuming she wins this (she is the clear front-runner), then this race is all done. If someone like Ronan, the perceived runner-up, manages a victory here, then it will be a real race. It seems unlikely that the 'Room' actress will lose here, though.

1. Brie Larson
2. Saoirse Ronan
3. Cate Blanchett
4. Sarah Silverman
5. Helen Mirren



BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

 Christian Bale (The Big Short)
Idris Elba (Beasts of No Nation)
Mark Rylance (Bridge of Spies)
Michael Shannon (99 Homes)
Jacob Tremblay (Room)

 This is a tough one to call, as the perceived Oscar front-runner (Sylvester Stallone for "Creed") was notably snubbed in this category. It's nearly impossible for an actor to win an Oscar without a nomination at SAG, so perhaps Stallone isn't as much of a lock as we think. Bale has the benefit of being in a Best Picture front-runner, and perhaps someone like Elba could benefit from sympathy votes from the "Oscars so White" controversy. Of the 5 men nominated here, only two (Bale & Rylance) also were nominated by the Academy. As much as I would like to see someone like Tremblay pull off an upset, a person has NEVER won the SAG Award without also being nominated for an Oscar. This is a two-way race.

1. Christian Bale
2. Mark Rylance
3. Jacob Tremblay
4. Idris Elba
5. Michael Shannon



BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

 Rooney Mara (Carol)
Rachel McAdams (Spotlight)
Helen Mirren (Trumbo)
Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl)
Kate Winslet (Steve Jobs)

 Without a doubt the hardest category to call. Both Vikander and Mara have been nominated as 'lead' at the Golden Globes, though at the Oscars they are categorized as supporting. Besides Mirren, this is legitimately a 4-way race. Vikander is the perceived front-runner, perhaps due to her performance as a suffering wife being all the things voters usually embrace (it's a cookie-cutter performance to Jennifer Connelly in "A Beautiful Mind"). Winslet won the Golden Globe in a tiny upset, though she wasn't facing competition from this lineup. Does she have momentum to go all the way? My head says Vikander, but I have a hunch Kate Winslet may be on the road to her second Oscar win. I think that whoever wins here will be a lock for the Oscar.

1. Kate Winslet
2. Alicia Vikander
3. Rooney Mara
4. Rachel McAdams
5. Helen Mirren
Posted by on

No comments:

Post a Comment

Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom)