Yet again, we come to that time of the year: the month-long period before the Oscars when the Golden Globes have spoken and the Guild awards are about to kick off. This is the Oscar hunting season. Following our nominations early Thursday morning, we were treated to some surprises, but mostly a range of fairly expected nominees across the board. Where do we stand? Let's break down some of the major categories and attempt to do a temperature check on the state of the race.
BEST PICTURE
Early in the year, the buzz was entirely around 'Spotlight' for its topical content and strong cast. 'The Big Short' has proven to be a juggernaut in recent weeks, picking up steam (and a surprise Best Director/Editing/Screenplay combo) to put it in prime position for an upset. This year, however, 'The Revenant' picked up the most nominations (12, Mad Max following with 10, The Martian at 7) as well as a Golden Globe upset for the top prize. Was this payback for last year's snub of Inarritu and 'Birdman' at the Globes, or is this a sign of things to come? Mind you, a film has NEVER won Best Picture without a Screen Actor's Guild Ensemble nomination & Golden Globe Screenplay nomination. That bodes well for 'Spotlight' and 'Big Short.' It's also the case that the film with the most nominations usually has an advantage, and 'Spotlight' doesn't even break the top 5 in that regard. Where is there more support?
1. The Revenant
2. Spotlight
3. The Big Short
4. Mad Max: Fury Road
5. Room
6. The Martian
7. Bridge of Spies
8. Brookyn
BEST DIRECTOR
Some saw this as a major snub of Ridley Scott for 'The Martian.' Nonsense, I say. These 5 men made films of integrity and vision. Scott's work on Martian, though admirable, was nowhere near top form for the aged director. I'm sure he will make a better film in years to come...
Again, the early consensus was that 'Spotlight' had the advantage due to buzz and esteem. Do most voters look at that film and see a technical achievement along the lines of a 'Gravity' or 'Life of Pi' or even 'Birdman?' It's rare for a director to win back-to-back Oscars (in fact it has only happened twice before: with John Ford in 1941/1942 and Joseph L. Mankiewicz in 1950/1951). No filmmaker has yet to win back-to-back Oscars for Picture and Director... Yet. That being said, it's hard to look at a film like 'The Revenant,' recognize the struggles it took to film, and dismiss it simply because the director just won last year. 'Mad Max' follows that same logic in terms of dynamic visuals and harsh shooting conditions, but that film just seems a bit weird for Academy taste. McKay and Abrahamson are just lucky to be here.
1. "The Revenant," Alejandro G. Iñárritu
2. "Spotlight," Tom McCarthy
3. "Mad Max: Fury Road," George Miller
4. "The Big Short," Adam McKay5. "Room," Lenny Abrahamson
BEST ACTOR
The internet has spoken, and it seems like this is an inevitable snowball of support for Leo. At long last (and with the Globe win as an early signal), it seems like his time has come (and maybe it will make voters feel better about snubbing Michael Keaton last year in another Alejandro Inarritu film). Matt Damon makes a puzzling addition to an otherwise accomplished group of performances (he kind of just played himself, didn't he?), but overall it's very hard to look at this category and predict an upset.
1. Leonardo DiCaprio in "The Revenant"
2. Bryan Cranston in "Trumbo"
3. Michael Fassbender in "Steve Jobs"
4. Eddie Redmayne in "The Danish Girl"
5. Matt Damon in "The Martian"BEST ACTRESS
This was a tough category, especially considering two leading ladies (Alicia Vikander in 'The Danish Girl' and Rooney Mara 'Carol') were unjustly nominated in the supporting category, which constitutes a rather alarming case of category fraud. It also allowed the incredibly oversaturated Jennifer Lawrence to squeeze in her record 4th nomination at the delicate age of 25. Brie Larson is the one to beat, with only Saoirse Ronan serving as spoiler (both also appear in a Best Picture nominee). With the Golden Globe victory, I think we are beginning to see the slow start of an avalanche for 'Room's' sole Oscar win.
1. Brie Larson in "Room"
2. Saoirse Ronan in "Brooklyn"
3. Cate Blanchett in "Carol"
4. Charlotte Rampling in "45 Years"
5. Jennifer Lawrence in "Joy"
BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
At long last we saw Ruffalo pick up a most deserved nomination for 'Spotlight's' best performance. His missing at Screen Actor's Guild and Golden Globe's makes his victory nearly impossible. We just saw Sylvester Stallone pick up his trophy at the Globes to rapturous applause, and yet he too missed a SAG nomination. Bale and Rylance are the only two men who have received all the 'necessary' nominations to consider them front-runners, and yet the passion behind Stallone and the wide support he is perceived to have may overstep the typical tea leaves we would normally look for. Had Jacob Tremblay received his nomination for 'Room,' I believe he would have emerged a victor.
1. Sylvester Stallone in "Creed"
2. Mark Rylance in "Bridge of Spies"
3. Mark Ruffalo in "Spotlight"
4. Christian Bale in "The Big Short"
5. Tom Hardy in "The Revenant"
BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
The unfortunate addition of Vikander and Mara give them a somewhat unfair advantage (leading performances in this category tend to win... Think of Christoph Waltz in 'Django' or Jennifer Hudson in 'Dreamgirls.') Who gives the more acclaimed performance? We also have Winslet, fresh of a surprise Globe win for 'Steve Jobs,' Rachel McAdams in "Spotlight," and the astounding Jennifer Jason Leigh in 'The Hateful Eight.' All three of these women star in a film entirely made up of a male cast. This, too, often bodes well for eventual winners (Tilda Swinton in 'Michael Clayton,' Jennifer Connelly in 'A Beautiful Mind,' or Kim Basinger in 'LA Confidential'). This could go one of 5 ways. Maybe the toughest acting category of the year to predict.
1. Alicia Vikander in "The Danish Girl"
2. Kate Winslet in "Steve Jobs"
3. Jennifer Jason Leigh in "The Hateful Eight"
4. Rooney Mara in "Carol"
5. Rachel McAdams in "Spotlight"
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Tell me this isn't the more difficult race to predict of the year. 'Room' has the heart, 'The Big Short' has the Aaron Sorkin-style dialogue (and what a snub he had for 'Steve Jobs,' by the way), 'The Martian' has the fans, and 'Brooklyn' & 'Carol' both stem from acclaimed novels. If the current buzz is to be believed, I think this is a close race between 'Short' and 'Room.'
1. "The Big Short," screenplay by Charles Randolph and Adam McKay
2. "Room," screenplay by Emma Donoghue
3. "Brooklyn," screenplay by Nick Hornby
4. "Carol," screenplay by Phyllis Nagy
5. "The Martian," screenplay by Drew Goddard
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
This is the category we typically see some smaller films sneak in, and 'Ex Machina' and 'Compton' make deserved nominees and unlikely winners. Based on the lineup, I think there is no way around it (unless Pixar is perceived to be 'overdue' for a Screenplay win, which I don't believe is the case). 'Spotlight,' through years of research and a sharp script, seems to have this in the bag.
1. "Spotlight," written by Josh Singer and Tom McCarthy
2. "Inside Out," screenplay by Pete Docter, Meg LeFauve and Josh Cooley; original story by Pete Docter and Ronnie del Carmen
3. "Bridge of Spies," written by Matt Charman and Ethan Coen & Joel Coen
4. "Ex Machina," written by Alex Garland
5. "Straight Outta Compton," screenplay by Jonathan Herman and Andrea Berloff; story by S. Leigh Savidge & Alan Wenkus and Andrea Berloff
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
I personally thought Williams' score was one of the weaker aspects of Star Wars, while his surprising absence from usual collaborator Steven Spielberg's 'Bridge of Spies' only highlighted the talent of overdue Thomas Newman (13 nominations, no wins). That being said, I think Globe winner 'Hateful Eight' and legendary Ennio Morricone stand a good chance here: combining an overdue factor with a need to award Tarantino's murder mystery with at least one win.
1. "The Hateful Eight," Ennio Morricone
2. "Bridge of Spies," Thomas Newman
3. "Carol," Carter Burwell
4. "Sicario," Jóhann Jóhannsson
5. "Star Wars: The Force Awakens," John Williams
Keep your eyes peeled for more thoughts and analysis as we get closer to Oscar week. Don't miss the Critic's Choice Awards this Sunday!
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