Final Oscar Predictions (in ALL 24 categories)

Since beginning of this site over 5 years ago, it is safe to say that there has been no more unpredictable year than this one! Prior to this weekend's BAFTA's (and even still considering that they failed to predict last year's Birdman victory), the race was wide open, with any of 3-4 films completely viable choices. With the recent surge amongst the guilds, we had no single film emerge as a front-runner (DGA, PGA, SAG.... though we will admit that both Spotlight and Big Short also won the WGA awards), it's a year unlike most in recent history. Who will win? Let's go down the list...

BEST PICTURE

The last year the big guild awards were evenly split between 3 films was 2004, when Million Dollar Baby won the DGA, Sideways won the SAG, and The Aviator won PGA. (In 2013 there was a split 3-ways between Gravity, American Hustle, and 12 Years a Slave, though the PGA tied between Slave and Gravity). Who's the front-runner? Logic says The Big Short, as the PGA has been right the past 8 years and uses the same voting system as the academy, and the political tone is perfect during the election year. Logic also says The Revenant, which won the DGA (but think of all that's going against it: the director just won last year, it's missing a screenplay nomination, and it's extremely brutal). Besides Brokeback Mountain, no film in recent history has LOST Best Picture after winning both that coveted BAFTA and DGA award. General support with 12 nominations is a good sign as well. This will truly be a photo finish.

1. The Revenant

2. The Big Short

3. Spotlight

4. Mad Max: Fury Road

5. Room

6. The Martian

7. Brooklyn

8. Bridge of Spies

BEST ACTOR

The narrative in this category has shifted dramatically this season, going from a near-lock for Michael Fassbender to a 100% lock for Leonardo DiCaprio. We can attribute this shift to a) the box office failures of Steve Jobs, b) the critical success of The Revenant, and perhaps most importantly, c) the surge in support for Leo to finally win his Oscar. It helps his case that the Revenant is the only Best Picture nominee in the bunch (does The Martian really count?), and it helps that he has swept all the major acting awards up until this point. Who's to say it's the 'better' performance, but it's clear that people feel his time has come. 

1. Leonardo DiCaprio (The Revenant)

2. Michael Fassbender (Steve Jobs)

3. Bryan Cranston (Trumbo)

4. Eddie Redmayne (The Danish Girl)

5. Matt Damon (The Martian)

BEST ACTRESS

It's a bit upsetting seeing the complete sweep for Brie Larson in Room. This is not to say she isn't a fantastic actress, but her success led to a performance like Saoirse Ronan in Brooklyn to go nearly unnoticed all season. Where Larson was missing in the last half of her film, Ronan carried her film strongly from start to finish and (in both Maureen and John's humble opinions) gave the year's best female performance. It would make for a show-stopping upset, but it's unrealistic to predict anyone except Larson at this point. 

1. Brie Larson (Room)

2. Saoirse Ronan (Brooklyn)

3. Cate Blanchett (Carol)

4. Charlotte Rampling (45 Years)

5. Jennifer Lawrence (Joy)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

This is the most unconventional category of the year. Stallone won the Globe to rapturous applause, and yet he was snubbed by both SAG and BAFTA (where Idris Elba and Mark Rylance won, respectively). It is possible that #OscarsSoWhite helped Elba win his prize while becoming the first SAG winner not nominated for an Oscar. Rylance gives a heartfelt though muted performance, albeit in a Best Picture nominee, and Christian Bale is on the opposite end of the spectrum in terms of boisterousness. It's hard to comprehend, but Stallone has the support, and seems virtually unstoppable. An upset is possible (and would make sense), but perhaps here, like with DiCaprio, the passion vote will win in the end. 

1. Sylvester Stallone (Creed)

2. Mark Rylance (Bridge of Spies)

3. Christian Bale (The Big Short)

4. Mark Ruffalo (Spotlight)

5. Tom Hardy (The Revenant)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Alicia v. Kate. Kate v. Alicia... It's true they have both split the prizes this year (Winslet winning Globe and BAFTA, Alicia winning SAG). With the shuffling of Alicia from supporting to lead, it's been a rare occasion for the two women to actually come head-to-head. The one match-up they had (at the SAG Awards) was when we saw Alicia pull through victorious, hence our belief that she is the stronger candidate. Seeing Kate and Leo win Oscars on the same night seems nearly too delicious a concept to imagine, but we have to stick with our boring front-runner (a virtual copy of Jennifer Connelly's performance in A Beautiful Mind) and cross fingers for a potential upset!

1. Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl)

2. Kate Winslet (Steve Jobs)

3. Rooney Mara (Carol)

4. Rachel McAdams (Spotlight)

5. Jennifer Jason Leigh (The Hateful Eight)

BEST DIRECTOR

The race has been all over the place, but let's repeat a tried and true statement: it is simply FOOLISH to bet against the DGA. This year, they awarded Alejandro Inarritu for a record back-to-back win. That's the end of that race folks, and as this award historically is nearly a perfect barometer for Director and Picture, you can understand our confidence in this historic soon-to-be victory. 

1. Alejandro G Inarritu (The Revenant)

2. George Miller (Mad Max: Fury Road)

3. Adam McKay (The Big Short)

4. Tom McCarthy (Spotlight)

5. Lenny Abrahamson (Room)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Our front-runners for most of the season were Spotlight and The Big Short, two films that (as we see it) will have to settle for one award each: screenplay. Luckily they don't compete in the same category. With The Big Short, Adam McKay's zany directorial achievement was also one of the year's best written films, and he will receive his consolation prize in this category.

*Side note, assuming Revenant wins, it will be only the third film in history to win Best Picture while being snubbed in the writing categories (The Sound of Music in 1965 and Titanic were the first two)

1. The Big Short (Adam McKay & Charles Randolph)

2. Room (Emma Donague)

3. The Martian (Drew Goddard)

4. Carol (Phillys Nagy)

5. Brooklyn (Nick Hornby)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

... likewise in Original Screenplay, the only realistic winner is Tom McCarthy's screenplay (and don't forget he directed it, too). This will be his consolation prize and likely the only Oscar for one of the year's very best films. It's too bad that the Spotlight will be largely forgotten come Oscar night, but it will be a richly deserved win for the film in this category. 

1. Spotlight (Tom McCarthy & Josh Singer)

2. Bridge of Spies (Matt Charman, Joel Coen, and Ethan Coen)

3. Inside Out (Pete Docter, Meg LeFauve, Josh Cooley, and Ronnie del Carmen)

4. Ex Machina (Alex Garland)

5. Straight Outta Compton (Jonathan Herman, Andrea Berloff, S. Leigh)

BEST EDITING

Had Big Short retained more momentum following it's PGA win (it still has a very good chance to win Best Picture mind you), this would be an easy winner (especially considering a Best Picture needs three total wins, just because that's what always happens). With Revenant moving to the spotlight (no pun intended) over Short, it seems like an easier vote for Mad Max's relentless action and pace. Just to clarify: Mad Max is the front-runner because it's the most heavily-edited film and Big Short is no longer a presumed Best Picture winner. If you see The Big Short win this category, you better believe it's about to win Best Picture. This is the category to watch. 

1. Mad Max: Fury Road

2. The Big Short

3. The Revenant

4. Star Wars: The Force Awakens

5. Spotlight

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

BAFTA went with Mad Max's minimal wardrobes (half the people are barely wearing pants). Cinderella is on everyone's radar for having the flashiest costumes. Carol is nominated just because it's a period piece. The Revenant used that bear skin effectively and the costumes had so many layers (a *lot* of costume is all you need, right?). I have a hunch that The Danish Girl's memorable pieces could serve as an upset to Cinderella, simply because a film rarely wins costumes when it's the sole nomination. If people are just checking off everything for Max, then maybe that will win? Or The Revenant? Maybe even Carol? Someone help.

1. Cinderella

2. The Danish Girl

3. Mad Max: Fury Road

4. The Revenant

5. Carol

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

The second I saw the massive spinning wheels in the Citadel, I knew Mad Max had this award in the bag. This was also the nomination that showed such wide support for The Revenant (the only real constructed set was a small army post seen for 1/4th of the film's run time) and was an early indicator it could win Best Picture. The Martian probably has the best shot at a victory in this category, with it's vaguely-futuristic sets both on Earth and in space, but for us, Max has little competition.

1. Mad Max: Fury Road

2. The Martian

3. The Revenant

4. Bridge of Spies

5. The Danish Girl

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

It's a difficult choice between the two leaders of the pack (did we mention that both Mad Max & Revenant received nominations in EVERY technical category, a feat only achieved by 5 other films in Oscar history?). On one hand, Max was filmed as a colorful and bleak world. Revenant was simply otherworldly. We have been wrong about Lubezki winning in the past (Tree of Life, don't remind us), but now that he has finally broken the losing curse and won (the past 2 consecutive years, no less), he's an easy prediction for what audiences generally agree is the most incredible aspect of the film. Mad Max serves as a very real spoiler regardless of Revenant winning the guild, and of course, poor Roger Deakins will have to wait at least one more year.

1. The Revenant

2. Mad Max: Fury Road

3. Sicario

4. Carol

5. The Hateful Eight

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

While drafting this list, it seemed best to start with the 'easy' categories, but even with makeup, we have the difficult choice between Revenant's gory bear wounds and just about everything else in Mad Max. When in doubt, go for the grander scale (and note that Revenant was snubbed by the according guild). 

1. Mad Max: Fury Road

2. The Revenant

3. The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Earlier in the year Anomalisa seemed like it could be a spoiler and become the first 'adult' themed film to win this category. Nonsense. Pixar's best film in years will be duly rewarded. (Also note it's screenplay nomination... there's widespread love for this film.)

1. Inside Out

2. Anomalisa

3. When Marnie Was There

4. Boy & the World

5. Shaun the Sheep Movie

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

Pixar has won this category in the past, and Sanjay's Super Team was hailed as one of the better short films in recent years. For voters, the simple act of sitting down and watching these films will cement the winner as Don Hertzfeldt's World of Tomorrow, a tragic and dark film that strikes all the right tones. 

1. World of Tomorrow

2. Sanjay's Super Team

3. We Can't Live Without the Cosmos

4. Bear Story

5. Prologue

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Aside from a few notable snubs (Inside Out, Room, Steve Jobs), this is a solid lineup excluding John William's recycled Star Wars score - love for the film will likely earn him votes regardless. As Roger Deakins is for cinematography (13 losses after this year), Thomas Newman is the perennial loser for music (this would also be his 13th loss). He has his best shot in years, having composed the music for Bridge of Spies: the rare Spielberg film lacking John William's work. It a boisterous, haunting score that will bode well with voters, but Ennio Morricone has the momentum from his Golden Globe/BAFTA win to earn a lifetime achievement award on his first nomination (cue "The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly" theme here). 

1. The Hateful Eight (Ennio Morricone)

2. Bridge of Spies (Thomas Newman)

3. Star Wars : The Force Awakens (John Williams)

4. Carol (Carter Burwell)

5. Sicario (Johann Johannsson)

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

A complete tossup. The most notable films in contention is 50 Shades of Grey, and there are 2 little-seen documentaries in the group. Yikes. Bond won the Globe, but it fails to measure up to a song like Skyfall. Simple Song #3 is the rare classical nominee (has a song like this ever been nominated??). It's unprecedented, so perhaps there's a chance. Our bets, however, are on Lady Gaga's work for The Hunting Ground. She performed at last year's Oscars to a standing ovation, and it feels like the Academy would be welcome in adding her name to their roster of musical winners. She is having quite the year already - it wouldn't surprise us if Oscar jumps on the bandwagon.

1. 'Til It Happens To You' (The Hunting Ground)

2. 'Simple Song #3' (Youth)

3. 'Writings on the Wall' (Spectre)

4. 'Manta Ray' (Racing Extinction)

5. 'Earned It' (50 Shades of Grey)

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

Holocaust? Check. Are we missing anything?

1. Son of Saul

2. Embrace the Serpent

3. Mustang

4. A War

5. Theeb

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Here's where that Revenant/Mad Max face off gets a bit more complicated. The rule of thumb in this category is: Best Picture nominee? Winner. There has yet to be a year in which TWO go head to head, and there is merit in both films (that incredible bear scene and Mad Max's dust storm come to mind). While Revenant wins simply on the "how did they do that?" vote, Mad Max has overall received more support from guilds (where Revenant was oftentimes snubbed altogether). 

1. Mad Max: Fury Road

2. The Revenant

3. Star Wars: The Force Awakens

4. Ex Machina

5. The Martian

BEST SOUND MIXING

Of the two sound awards, this is the trickier pick, since there is precedence for the categories splitting. The Revenant owes so much of it's power to the layered soundtrack of ghostly voices and deep brooding music, HOWEVER.... Mad Max has been cited as one of the best action films ever made, and when there are loud explosions and bangs and whatnot, that's typically where you should be putting your money. Our gut feeling is that the categories will split between the two popular nominees, with Revenant winning but Max serving as a very real spoiler. (Can there please be a tie...?)

1. The Revenant

2. Mad Max: Fury Road

3. Star Wars: The Force Awakens

4. The Martian

5. Bridge of Spies

BEST SOUND EDITING

Unlike mixing, Editing seems like a locked decision for all of Max's explosions, engines, and silences. Revenant comes in dead last due to the category's time-honored tradition to pick loud action over birds and bees. This is one of the few categories where quality filmmaking comes second, and they will sooner pick a bad movie with good sound over a good movie with okay sound (Pearl Harbor has won this award, for example...).

1. Mad Max: Fury Road

2. Star Wars: The Force Awakens

3. The Martian

4. Sicario

5. The Revenant

BEST DOCUMENTARY

Musical documentaries have had recent success, and more recently we have seen an influx of 'uplifting' films winning over darker fare. While Amy seems like a viable front-runner, there is competition from The Look of Silence, a sequel of sorts to The Act of Killing (the documentary we had predicted to win just 3 years ago). General consensus goes with the popular vote, so Amy it is. 

1. Amy

2. The Look of Silence

3. What Happened, Miss Simone?

4. Cartel Land

5. Winter on Fire: Ukraine's Fight for Freedom

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

The Last Day of Freedom is actually an animated short film in the style of a documentary (nonfiction, of course), but given it's context surrounding racism (especially in a year when the Oscars have a hashtag called #OscarsSoWhite) it seems like an easy victory for the Academy to bestow in an attempt to deal with the controversy. 

1. Last Day of Freedom

2. A Girl in the River: The Price of Freedom

3. Body Team 12

4. Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah

5. Chau, Beyond the Lines

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

Ave Maria has the appeal of a comedy that balances religion with timely issues. While this category tends to go towards more heavy-handed options, it's a charmer (from what I hear) that should pick up lots of votes just for being the odd one in the bunch. 

1. Ave Maria

2. Day One

3. Everything Will Be Okay

4. Stutterer

5. Shok

Final Predicted tallies:

Mad Max: 5

The Revenant: 5

*assuming we are correct, this could be the first year since 1996 where only 2 films win multiple awards!!