BEST PICTURE
1. La La Land
2. Moonlight
3. Manchester By The Sea
4. Arrival
5. Hacksaw Ridge
6. Lion
7. Hidden Figures
8. Fences
9. Hell or High Water
DGA + PGA victories are very telling, especially when coupled with Best Picture wins as the Golden Globes, Critic's Choice, and BAFTA. La La Land is set to be the first Best Picture winner without a correlating SAG Ensemble nomination since Braveheart in 1995 (the winner this year was Hidden Figures). Manchester by the Sea has done nothing but lose steam in the past few months (and missed a crucial Best Editing nomination). Moonlight is still strong but has won virtually no awards thus far. Some may still think Arrival is a strong contender, but the snub of Amy Adams (and the fact that sci-fi movies don't win) definitely doesn't make a strong case. Records are made to be broken, and the Oscars have shown in recent years that anything is possible. One of the evening's biggest locks as far as we can see.
BEST DIRECTOR
1. Damien Chazelle (La La Land)
2. Barry Jenkins (Moonlight)
3. Denis Villeneuve (Arrival)
4. Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester By The Sea)
5. Mel Gibson (Hacksaw Ridge)
The inclusion of Mel Gibson was a shock, but evidence that Hollywood has finally forgiven him. Barry Jenkins is the first black filmmaker to be nominated for Picture, Director, and Screenplay which is worthy of praise of itself (Alejandro G. Iñárritu was the last person to achieve this feat for Birdman). Denis Villeneuve has finally received a nomination in light of his impressive body of work (Prisoners, Sicario, Enemy), and Kenneth Lonergan would have made a deserving winner in any other year. However: DGA don't lie. There isn't any logical way that Mr. Chazelle can lose. His win will make him the youngest recipient of this award in Oscar history (at only 32 years old!).
BEST ACTRESS
1. Emma Stone (La La Land)
2. Isabelle Huppert (Elle)
3. Natalie Portman (Jackie)
4. Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins)
5. Ruth Negga (Loving)
What a race. People just didn't like Jackie, but in another year Portman would win in a cakewalk. The biggest award she's won so far was the Critic's Choice, and that was back in December... Streep and Negga are lucky to be nominated, and Huppert missed out on SAG and BAFTA nominations which really hurts her despite the Golden Globe upset. It's a light role (especially considering the stiff competition) but this is going to be Emma Stone's year. Best Actress in particular is not always known for awarding the "best" acting, instead favoring the hot new Hollywood star. Think Brie Larson, or Jennifer Lawrence, or Sandra Bullock... At least we know she'll have a great speech.
BEST ACTOR
1. Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea)
2. Denzel Washington (Fences)
3. Ryan Gosling (La La Land)
4. Viggo Mortensen (Captain Fantastic)
5. Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw Ridge)
One of the year's closest categories. It's very likely that Ryan Gosling will be one of the few weak links in a night where La La Land wins everywhere else. Denzel won the SAG in a predictable upset (this was the first time the Screen Actors Guild ever awarded him. Maybe they felt he was 'due'). However, he's not nominated at BAFTA and hasn't won any major awards anywhere else. Casey Affleck won the Golden Globe, BAFTA and the majority of critics prizes throughout the season, but his sexual assault charges are certainly leaving many people with a bad taste in their mouths. If Denzel wins, he will join an exclusive club of having won 3 Oscars for acting. If Casey wins, it might be the only place that Manchester can be rewarded. This is truly a coin-toss situation.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Viola Davis (Fences)
2. Michelle Williams (Manchester by the Sea)
3. Naomie Harris (Moonlight)
4. Nicole Kidman (Lion)
5. Octavia Spencer (Hidden Figures)
This category is locked up in a way that no other acting races are. For her impressive body of work, it's no wonder the Academy will finally give Davis her Oscar, overdue since her breakthrough in Doubt in 2008. If you can believe it, Viola is the most nominated black actress in history (with just 3 nominations), and her costar (Denzel) is the most-nominated black actor with 7 nominations total. Is it that hard to see a scenario where they both end up Oscar winners? (They both won the Tony award for their roles on Broadway, after all).
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Mahershala Ali (Moonlight)
2. Dev Patel (Lion)
3. Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water)
4. Michael Shannon (Nocturnal Animals)
5. Lucas Hedges (Manchester by the Sea)
This is the first year since 1975 that the Golden Globe winner (Aaron Taylor Johnson in 'Nocturnal Animals') hasn't been nominated at the Oscars (Richard Benjamin in 'The Sunshine Boys' won the Golden Globe in 1975, while his costar from the same film, George Burns, went on to Oscar gold that year). Does this spell good news for Michael Shannon, the surprising-but-deserving nominee from Nocturnal Animals? Mahershala Ali is the front-runner, but in all fairness, his only major win was the SAG Award. Dev Patel won the BAFTA last week and it seems like his odds are rising. The love for Moonlight might help the results in the end, but I think this is maybe one of the closest races of the night.
As the rule has gone in years past: if you play a real person you win an Oscar. This will be the first year since 1997 where none of the winning performances will have been based on a real-life person (curiously, 1997 was also the last year a film received 14 nominations (Titanic)).
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1. La La Land
2. Manchester by the Sea
3. Hell or High Water
4. The Lobster
5. 20th Century Women
Manchester by the Sea may be a more accomplished script, but the evidence points more to the fact that La La Land may become the first musical since 1958 to win a writing award (Gigi). The last musical to win an original screenplay was actually 1951's American In Paris (a movie that clearly had great influence on La La Land's style). There's hope for Manchester in that it recently won the BAFTA, but La La Land won the Globe, it won Critic's Choice. Why wouldn't that momentum carry through here?
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1. Moonlight
2. Hidden Figures
3. Fences
4. Arrival
5. Lion
There's really only one viable candidate. Barry Jenkins' achievement will win him a much-deserved award for Moonlight. The box office success of Hidden Figures (and it's SAG Ensemble win) may give it some clout, but the writing wasn't one of the film's highlights. At the Guild Awards where Moonlight was nominated as an original screenplay, it beat out both La La Land and Manchester. This is very much the screenplay of the year.
BEST EDITING
1. La La Land
2. Moonlight
3. Hacksaw Ridge
4. Arrival
5. Hell or High Water
This will be Tom Cross's second Oscar (his first win coming from Chazelle's other film, Whiplash). Joi McMillon is the first black woman to be nominated in the category for Moonlight. Usually war films fare well in editing (Hacksaw Ridge could upset), but musicals historically have a better track record, especially those that win Best Picture.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
1. La La Land
2. Lion
3. Arrival
4. Moonlight
5. Silence
The Cinematography Guild chose to award Lion, a deserving upset that might give La La Land a run for it's money. The Guild's accuracy is barely 50% though, and La La Land benefits from the more colorful, flashy camerawork and long takes that the Academy has loved in recent years. Bradford Young's nomination for Arrival makes him the first African American to ever be nominated in this category.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
1. La La Land
2. Jackie
3. Florence Foster Jenkins
4. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
5. Allied
The running joke is that La La Land's nomination is obscure because the actors literally wore regular clothes the whole movie. What's there to award? Conventional knowledge would have us go with the BAFTA winner (Jackie) which has been correct the last 9 years in a row. However, Jackie failed to even win the Guild Award (Hidden Figures, not nominated, beat it for Period Costumes), and Jackie wasn't nominated for Art Direction (only a few films in history have won costumes without this coordinating nomination). No film since 1994 (The Adventures of Priscilla, Queen of the Desert) has won Costume Design for a contemporary film. Usually it's the bigger, sparklier dresses that win. Florence Foster Jenkins and even Fantastic Beasts seem more typical. If voters love La La Land as much as we think, why would they stop here if they want to award it for everything? Musicals still do well in this category.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
1. La La Land
2. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
3. Arrival
4. Passengers
5. Hail, Caesar!
Like Costumes, this is a category that doesn't like to reward contemporary films. The last film set in present day to win was another musical: 1979's All That Jazz. That's a hell of a long streak standing in the way of a La La Land win. The only thing going for it is that none of the other nominees have any passion behind them. Does the Academy really want to give the Harry Potter reboot an Oscar?
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
1. La La Land
2. Moonlight
3. Lion
4. Jackie
5. Passengers
Ignoring last year (The Hateful Eight), the past 12 winners have been Best Picture nominees. Many would argue that this is the biggest lock of the night, considering La La Land is the first wholly original musical nominated as a dramatic score since The Lion King in 1994 (which won, by the way).
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
1. "City of Stars" (La La Land)
2. "Audition" (La La Land)
3. "How Far I'll Go" (Moana)
4. "Can't Stop the Feeling" (Trolls)
5. "The Empty Chair" (Jim: The James Foley Story)
Can vote splitting hurt La La Land's chances? As long as there's a consensus a film can always win with multiple songs nominated (Slumdog Millionaire did it with "Jai Ho," so did Lion King, Aladdin, Beauty and the Beast, Little Mermaid, Flashdance, etc., etc., etc.). It just depends on which song voters will consider the better option. However, vote splitting could help Lin-Manuel Miranda (of Hamilton fame) win for Moana and become the youngest EGOT winner in history. Who doesn't like Lin?
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
1. Star Trek Beyond
2. A Man Called Ove
3. Suicide Squad
It's a toss-up. None of these three films were seen as front-runner prior to nominations, and as in years past we are forced to take a shot in the dark. When in doubt, go for the most makeup.
BEST SOUND MIXING
1. La La Land
2. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
3. Arrival
4. Hacksaw Ridge
5. 13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi
Musicals have been thankful for this category for years. They always win, even the bad ones (Les Miserables, Dreamgirls, etc). This is an easy pick.
BEST SOUND EDITING
1. Hacksaw Ridge
2. La La Land
3. Arrival
4. Deepwater Horizon
5. Sully
In an evening when La La Land is potentially going to break Oscar records, even Sound Editing might be a hurdle too high for this film to overcome. The most recent musical nominated in this category was Aladdin in 1992 and it didn't win. Prior to that? Nothing... This is only the second musical nominated in this category ever. What usually wins Sound Editing? War movies. The more bullets the better. I suppose we shouldn't count out La La Land just in case of a sweep. If it's going to win 12 Oscars, this is the category it can't lose.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
1. The Jungle Book
2. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
3. Deepwater Horizon
4. Doctor Strange
5. Kubo and the Two Strings
The foolproof way to determine a winner here was to select the Best Picture nominee of the bunch. That was completely thrown out the window last year when both Mad Max and The Revenant were nominated and Ex Machina won in one of Oscar's biggest shocks in years. Luckily there isn't a Best Picture contender in the lineup, and The Jungle Book seems to have had this prize in the bag since Spring. Jungle Book also won the Guild award. The divisiveness in Rogue One's facial effects might prove too controversial, but it serves as a strong potential upset.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
1. Zootopia
2. Kubo and the Two Strings
3. Moana
4. The Red Turtle
5. My Life as a Zucchini
Regardless of personal opinions, Zootopia has been the front-runner nearly all year and only one film has challenged that record. BAFTA's award going to Kubo might indicate that Zootopia is less universally-loved than we believe (especially considering BAFTA's near-perfect record in this category), but Disney has been on a non-stop role (having won the last 4 awards in a row). There really isn't a logical case to be made for any of the other 3 films, as deserving as they might be.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
1. O.J.: Made In America
2. I Am Not Your Negro
3. 13th
4. Life, Animated
5. Fire at Sea
This is a category that is an interesting one to watch, especially considering that the front-runner would become the longest film to ever win an Academy Award. There's some controversy though, as the film was released on ESPN as a multi-part series. Are voters really going to get behind a movie like that?
BEST FOREIGN FILM
1. The Salesman
2. A Man Called Ove
3. Toni Erdmann
4. Tanna
5. Land of Mine
Toni Erdmann has been the critical darling all year, but the prospect of a 3 hour German comedy might sway voters, plus the movie itself doesn't have the gravitas of recent winners like Son of Saul or Ida. A lot of people think that the backlash to Trump's travel ban will actually benefit The Salesman, an Iranian film written by the same man who won an Oscar for A Separation. He has been very vocal about his boycotting of the Oscars, and this seems like a place where Hollywood can actively voice their disapproval of the White House. A Man Called Ove is the only nominee that received multiple nominations - maybe that means more support?
BEST DOCUMENTARY, SHORT SUBJECT
1. Watani: My Homeland
2. Joe's Violin
3. The White Helmets
4. Extremis
5. 4.1 Miles
There is a lot of back and forth predicting the short categories, and documentary can always be difficult. Historically this category chooses personal stories full of emotion (last year's winner was about the survivor of an honor killing, the year before it was about a suicide hotline) and they also choose Holocaust-themed stories. This year's front-runners tell the story of an Aleppo family relocated to Germany as refugees (Watani) and a Holocaust survivor passing on his violin to the next generation and the healing powers music has (Joe's Violin). It's a really close race.
BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM
1. Piper
2. Blind Vaysha
3. Borrowed Time
4. Pear Cider and Cigarettes
5. Pearl
Someone said that to predict this category one should always go with the cute animals. If that's the case, then Piper certainly wins that award - the Pixar short featured in front of Finding Dory was a dazzling display of photorealism and spectacular ocean scenes that was arguably better than the film it preceded. Pixar doesn't have a strong track record with shorts (2001 with "For the Birds" was it's most recent win), but perhaps it's time for another victory for the studio. Blind Vaysha can certainly upset with it's unique style and imagery.
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM
1. Sing
2. Ennemis intérieurs
3. Timecode
4. La Femme et le TGV
5. Silent Nights
Enemies Within is the presumed front runner amongst experts, and without having seen the shorts, sometimes they are the best indicator of victories. Sing, a story of two young girls in a choir standing up for what they believe in, might still have enough political undertones that could push it ahead. Then again, Enemies Within is more of a taut thriller deals with the sheltering of terrorists in the 1990's. Which sounds more appealing?
total wins
La La Land: 11
Moonlight: 2
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