BEST PICTURE
The mighty "Star Is Born" is making for a weak showing, picking up only one Golden Globe (Song) when it was expected to sweep with 4 or 5. "Green Book" picked up Comedy in an unsurprising win, and "Bohemian Rhapsody" continues to raise eyebrows with the razor sharp divide between critical distain and it's gushing fans. Think larger picture: the last time a Best Picture missed out on a DGA nomination was 1989 when "Driving Miss Daisy" was omitted from that year's lineup... This doesn't bode well for "The Favourite." When looking at all the tea leaves, though, it still seems like "Star Is Born" is ahead for now. With 10 potential nominees, the line-up is looking solidified as:
1. A Star Is Born
2. Roma
3. Green Book
4. Vice
5. BlacKkKlansman
6. The Favourite
7. Black Panther
8. Bohemian Rhapsody
9. If Beale Street Could Talk
10. A Quiet Place (look, this is probably unlikely, but the PGA nomination certainly helped... Plus, there hasn't been a year in which 10 films were nominated since 2010 before nominating rules changed... We might have as few as 5 nominees this year, for all we know...)
BEST DIRECTOR
You need to look no further than the DGA lineup to make these predictions. With the Golden Globe (and virtually every critic's prize) going to Cuaron, "Roma" seems to have this locked up. In recent years, Picture & Director have split... It seems certain to do it again this year, unless the Academy will honestly evaluate this race and reward a foreign, black & white, subtitled, Netflix movie the top honor... I suppose it could happen.
1. Alfonso Cuaron, "Roma"
2. Bradley Cooper, "A Star Is Born"
3. Spike Lee, "BlacKkKlansman"
4. Yorgos Lanthimos, "The Favourite" (snubbed by DGA, but this film is bound to be one of the most nominated)
5. Peter Farrelly, "Green Book" (this would omit Adam McKay for "Vice," a movie that is growing more and more polarizing each day... "Green Book" is not without its controversies, but the transition from comedy to drama for Farrelly doesn't hurt his chances)
BEST ACTOR
While I would argue that both Viggo Mortensen & Bradley Cooper give the year's best male performances by a mile, it's really obvious to almost guarantee the winner this early in the race. I was right to bet on Rami Malek at my Golden Globe party. No matter how much people dislike "Bohemian," virtually everyone will champion Malek's performance. It's a real life person, its a transformation, he's gay... I can feel the stars aligning here. Mark my words.
1. Rami Malek, "Bohemian Rhapsody"
2. Bradley Cooper, "A Star Is Born"
3. Viggo Mortensen, "Green Book"
4. Christian Bale, "Vice"
5. Ethan Hawke, "First Reformed" (he's shown up in very few races so far, and a more logical choice is John David Washington in "Klansman" despite an incredibly forgettable performance (Washington got both Globes & SAG mentions. Hawke is the outsider Indie pick. Plus it's a showier role. Look out for this fifth slot!)
BEST ACTRESS
The toughest race of the year without question. A 3-way race with each woman a front-runner in her own way. Glenn Close, winning the Globe in a stunning upset, gave an impassioned speech that will make voters ask why she has never won an Oscar (and on nomination #7). Gaga is the breakthrough of the year. Olivia Colman (also won the Globe) gives the flashiest performance and in a year minus Glenn Close would win in a cakewalk. So this is the question: will voters go for the deserving veteran or the performance with the best acting? Either way, I think Gaga is going to be happy to finish a second-runner up.
1. Olivia Colman, "The Favourite" (yes I'm partial, but sometimes big Oscar losers (Peter O'Toole, Richard Burton) are no less great for never having won. When an Academy voter sits down and watches "the Wife" and "The Favourite," it seems virtually impossible for this caliber of role to be ignored)
2. Glenn Close, "The Wife" (on second thought, can't we have another tie??)
3. Lady Gaga, "A Star Is Born"
4. Emily Blunt, "Mary Poppins Returns"
5. Yalitza Aparicio, "Roma" (again, a long shot, but Melissa McCarthy's year was also flanked with some awful films, and the Academy isn't one to shy away from punishing actors for poor decisions.... If "Roma" is going to strike big, this is the place it will happen)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Poor Timothee Chalamet is going to go another year as a bridesmaid... There's growing support for Mahershala Ali, especially after his Globe win. I think it's clear the front-runner is another veteran actor who is scene-stealing in every way. Oscar voters tend to reward older actors in only this category. It's close, but I think Richard E Grant is in a very good place.
1. Richard E Grant, "Can You Ever Forgive Me"
2. Mahershala Ali, "Green Book"
3. Timothee Chalamet, "Beautiful Boy"
4. Sam Elliott, "A Star Is Born"
5. Adam Driver, "BlacKkKlansman" (a performance that I truly didn't even remember after seeing the film, making his consistency this season all the more puzzling... If I could pick, why not Steve Carell for "Vice," Michael B Jordan for "Black Panther," or even Russell Crowe for "Boy Erased?" There's always hope for an upset)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Regina King was the presumed front-runner early on who was predicted to sweep through the season unmatched... Then she was snubbed by SAG (a feat only Marsha Gay Harden & Christoph Waltz have managed to overcome to win Oscar since SAG began) and BAFTA... Her Golden Globe speech was powerful, but we need to start weighing other options. The last time a front-runner missed SAG & BAFTA nominations was Sylvester Stallone for "Creed." He was still the favorite to win up until Mark Rylance heard his name announced from the envelope... When peer groups snub an actor, it's a telling sign.
1. Amy Adams, "Vice"
2. Rachel Weisz, "The Favourite"
3. Regina King, "If Beale Street Could Talk"
4. Emma Stone, "The Favourite"
5. Margot Robbie, "Mary Queen of Scots" (this is a long-shot, though she did get in at SAG & BAFTA... Other possibilities include Claire Foy for "First Man," Nicole Kidman for "Boy Erased," or even Maria de Tavira for "Roma." Heck, can we even wish for a Tilda Swinton upset for "Suspiria?")
More to come! (Critics Choice Awards are this Sunday, January 13th... Another ceremony that has occasionally shed light on front-runners at the Oscars)
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