Official 95th Oscar Predictions

 Yet another year has come and gone! While this website has largely gone dormant - it's still exciting to be able to approach the Academy Awards with a sense of suspense and curiosity - all the better due to this year's largely amazing crop of movies. I feel like it's said every year, but this year especially is full of some of the most suspenseful races I can remember, and so many of them! From Best Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, all the way down to the shorts, there is a sense of absolute uncertainty - something that will make this year's Oscar ceremony all the more exciting (please, no slaps this time). Without delay:

BEST PICTURE

I only saw the final of these nominees on Oscar eve (Women Talking)! What a lineup. From the moment I saw Everything Everywhere early last year - it certainly felt like a powerful, singular vision, a movie I had never really seen before. I would have never imagined it would "click" with Oscar voters in such a strong way and ultimately come into the ceremony as an almost certain lock for Best Picture. In fact, in terms of precursor wins, Everything Everywhere is running side by side with the likes of Schindler's List and American Beauty as 'that movie that basically won everything' leading up to tonight. In other years with close races, there was always a movie in second place primed for an upset (La La Land & Moonlight, Roma & Green Book, King's Speech & Social Network, etc). The thing that Everything Everywhere has going for it is the simple fact that no single movie has come up to challenge it as the next likely. It's won too much. Our likely runner-up could be All Quiet due to it's sweep of the BAFTA awards, but the film was not nominated for Director, Editing, or Acting. That's a kiss of death for a film seeking the highest prize. Even CODA last year was nominated for (and won) acting and writing trophies, not to mention its sweep of the guild awards (SAG, PGA, WGA...). Everything Everywhere won all those awards, too. Runners up seem to be All Quiet (if it can pull off a tech sweep of the below-the-line awards) or Banshees (if it can win a screenplay and acting prize - the other most likely movie to achieve this).

It's probably my favorite of the 10, but my personal opinions are split between Everything, Women Talking, and All Quiet. All 3 are some of the strongest Best Picture nominees I have seen in a while. The weaklings in the bunch (for me) are Fablemans and Avatar. But those are just personal opinions. They are unlikely to win for a myriad of reasons (even considering Fablemans won the Golden Globe). This is one of the easier categories to predict. 

1. Everything Everywhere All At Once
2. All Quiet on the Western Front
3. Banshees of Inisherin
4. Top Gun: Maverick
5. TAR
   
6. The Fableman's
   
7. Elvis
8. Women Talking
   
9. Triangle of Sadness 
10. Avatar: The Way of Water

 

BEST DIRECTOR

Again, it's a peculiar race in that the Daniels have cemented themselves so strongly as the front-runners. From Swiss Army Man (a movie about a rotting, farting corpse that can float) to this Oscar juggernaut - the film is nonetheless a "swing big" situation where the Academy wants to reward a film that takes lots of chances. Again, I don't even know who the runner-up would be here (Steven Spielberg won the Globe, but that movie has all but sputtered and died). I would guess Todd Field for his chilly work on TAR, but it would be very rare for a movie to only win Best Director and nothing else 2 years in a row (assuming Cate isn't our Best Actress winner). 

1. Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All At ONce
2. Todd Field, TAR
3. Steven Spielberg, The Fablemans
4. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
5. Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness

 

BEST ACTOR

A tough, TOUGH race. I feel like this is easily Austin Butler's to lose - he won the Golden Globe and BAFTA, which is usually a winning combo. Brendan Fraser won the Critic's Choice and SAG. His momentum is there, but I wonder if the movie with a Best Picture nomination will tip the scales towards Elvis. After all, he's playing a real person, and the Oscars love giving lead actors awards for that (Bohemian Rhapsody as the most recent example). I feel like Colin Farrell could be a total out of left field upset, but he didn't even manage to win the BAFTA in a very British-friendly film. I can't predict him to upset, but that win would be very much deserved and a pleasant twist to this close 2-way race. 

1.  Austin Butler, Elvis
2. Brendan Fraser, The Whale
3. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
4. Bill Nighy, Living
5. Paul Mescal, Aftersun

 

BEST ACTRESS

What a race! All year, it felt like Cate Blanchett was steamrolling to her third career Oscar. Her performance is good, but it's hard to deny Michelle Yeoh carried her film and made the most convincing case as to why voters need to branch out and continue to become more inclusive, especially in a category where in 95 years, only 1 woman of color has ever won. It's hard to imagine Michelle Yeoh losing - especially after building up momentum since her SAG win. If Cate wins it would feel like such a defeat - I can only imagine film twitter's reaction. The technical odds are still on for Lydia Tar here, but I can't believe any other outcome than perhaps a tie!

1. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All At Once
2. Cate Blanchett, TAR
3. Andrea Riseborough, To Leslie
4. Michelle Williams, The Fableman's
5. Ana de Armas, Blonde

 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

While it's not my favorite supporting performance of the year, the Ke Huy Quan sweep this year has been undeniable. He has a great narrative and it's the comeback story of the year. My vote would still probably be for Barry Keoghan, but this is locked up. 

1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All At Once
2. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
3. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
4. Judd Hirsch, The Fableman's 
5. Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway

 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

The most exciting race of the year. I partially hope it's the first category so the suspense can finally be suspended. At the same time, this could be the last award of the night for all I care! This is a real race. Angela Bassett led with early buzz (and did the thing) - winning the Golden Globe and Critic's Choice. Kerry Condon won the BAFTA. Jamie Lee Curtis (all of us) won the SAG in a huge upset. The last time the race was so evenly split was in 2007 when the Oscar winner (Tilda Swinton) prevailed with only a BAFTA win. This makes many people support Kerry Condon. It would certainly fit with recent trends. I can't deny, however, that Jamie Lee Curtis's upset at SAG shows big support for this aged star, and I think many people would want to see her give another wild speech. Her campaigning has been so solid all year. While it's one of my least favorite performances in the category (a sentiment shared by many) - and she's not even the best supporting actress in her own movie (!) I'm going to go ahead with this ranking. Bassett but have a better chance had she won a single award voted on by industry members (critics dont vote for Oscars) and a Marvel sequel doesn't seem like the type of movie Oscar voters are going to favor highly. Truly any of the top 4 could win. Even a Stephanie Hsu upset would be greatly deserved and not entirely surprising (especially given the love for this movie). It will be only the third movie to win 3 acting awards (the last time was Network in the 1970's). It's a crazy bet, but I'm invested in this outcome!

1. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All At Once
2. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
3. Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
4. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All At Once
5. Hong Chau, The Whale 
   

 

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

I want to predict Banshees - it was my favorite screenplay of these nominees, and it has precedent to win. In fact, it's won more precursors than Everything for it's screenplay. Still, I think if voters love Everything the way we have been led to believe, this feels like a safe win for it. More than Director or Editing, Best Picture winners really benefit from a screenplay win. I would say of Everything loses, it's chances of a Best Picture win aren't necessarily at risk, but it could set up a smaller victory haul than we initially thought (some people think Everything could win 8+ Oscars tonight. Unlikely, but that's our headspace going in!). 

1. Everything Everywhere All At Once
2. The Banshees of Inisherin
3. TAR
4. The Fableman's
5. Triangle of Sadness
   

 

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The inclusion of Top Gun here was an early trigger that made many think it could win the top prize. It's a weird nomination for that film, after all. The front runners are Women Talking and All Quiet. It's been a close race all year, but finally seeing Women Talking last night, I was struck by the absolute beauty of its writing - words that made a potentially boring topic so very cinematic and wondrous. I can't see how this is a close race at all, but with All Quiet raking in so many more nominations (againt Women's 2), many think that could prevail. I feel strongly that Sarah Polley will win a very deserved Oscar tonight. 

1. Women Talking
2. All Quiet on the Western Front
3. Living
4. Top Gun: Maverick
5. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

 

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY 

Top Gun was the clear front runner right up until its snub. Thank God, because the beauty in All Quiet is undeniable. It has some of the most haunting and stunning visuals of any movie this year. Elvis won the Guild Award - and its victory here would make it the first woman to win in this category. I can't believe any voters would watch both films and check Elvis, regardless of who shot it. 

1. All Quiet on the Western Front
2. Elvis
3. TAR
4. Bardo
   
5. Empire of Light

 

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE 

Marcel was my #2 movie of the year, so seeing it lose to cleanly to Pinocchio all year was a little sad. However, Guillermo del Toro's movie is a masterpiece in its own way. A fascinating study of grief and loss. This is ultimately an easy category to predict (but I wish it wasn't). 

1. Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio
2. Marcel the Shell With Shoes On
3. Puss In Boots
4. Turning Red
5. The Sea Beast

 

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE 

 

 The timely nature of the war in Ukraine seems to be spelling victory for the critically applauded Navalny. Fire of Love is sweet and would fit the bill, too, but Oscar voters have repeatedly proven that they aren't afraid to pick serious, intense films here over the sweeter option.

1. Navalny
2. Fire of Love
3. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
4. All That Breathes
5. A House Made of Splinters

 

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

It's nice seeing foreign films nominated in Best Picture so frequently now. They always win here if they are up for the main prize. This isn't even a race anymore. 

1. All Quiet on the Western Front
2. Argentina, 1985
3. EO
4. Close
5. The Quiet One

 

BEST FILM EDITING

What was once a close race between Top Gun and Everything seems to be more closely favoring Everything now. It has the most cuts, after all. Even when I first saw it, the editing was one of the main wonders of this film. I could see it really being a toss up here despite my preference for Everything. I'm not overthinking this. 

1. Everything Everywhere All At Once
2. Top Gun: Maverick
3. Elvis
4. The Banshees of Inisherin
5. TAR

 

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

I have zero clue here. All Quiet won BAFTA. Babylon won Golden Globe. Many think Babylon is the clear favorite (its the best, per fans of the movie), but it got so few nominations. Do voters even like it? Here's a scary statistic: every time a Best Picture winner has also been nominated for Score and Song, it ALWAYS wins at least 1 of those categories. Does this mean Everything has a better chance than we think? It certainly won't win Original Song (right?). I don't even know what to do!

1. All Quiet on the Western Front
2. Everything Everywhere All At Once
3. Babylon
4. The Fableman's
5. The Banshees of Inisherin
   

 

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

If you win the Globe and Critic's Choice (pretty much the only precursors for Original Song), you win the Oscar. I'm excited for RRR to take home gold on its only nomination. It was such an amazing film, I only wish it has received more love in other categories. 

1. Naatu Naatu, RRR
2. Hold My Hand, Top Gun: Maverick
3. Lift Me Up, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
4. This Is A Life, Everything Everywhere All At Once
5. Applause, Tell It Like A Woman

 

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN 

Another category where the Bablyon support is making me second guess. Again, no Best Picture nomination isn't doing it any favors. Here is a category where I solidly think the love voters have for Elvis will allow it to be rubberstamped in a couple of these categories. It's very close though, and an upset is entirely possible. 

1. Elvis
2. Babylon
3. All Quiet on the Western Front
4. Avatar: The Way of Water
5. The Fableman's

 

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Production design and costumes often go hand in hand, so I would advise if you pick Babylon here, pick it for production as well. Elvis (the same team that made Moulin Rouge!) received the exact same nominations in 2001 (except Actress in place of Actor) and it took home Production Design an Costumes that year. Catherine Martin (Baz Luhrman's wife) is set to be the most awarded Australian in history  - she does both costumes and production design for all his films. She also won both for Great Gatsby. Shes a juggernaut! 

1. Elvis
2. Babylon
3. Everything Everywhere All At Once
4. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
5. Mrs Harris Goes to Paris

 

BEST SOUND

Far too easy in my mind. Prove me wrong. 

1. Top Gun: Maverick
2. All Quiet on the Western Front
3. Elvis
4. Avatar: The Way of Water
5. The Batman

 

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

The lock of the evening. 

1. Avatar: The Way of Water
2. Top Gun: Maverick
3. All Quiet on the Western Front
4. The Batman
5. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
   

 

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

 

The Whale got early buzz for its convincing fat suit - but Elvis also had a fat suit (albeit Tom Hanks didn't look quite as convincing), AND a multitude of hair styles, AND sideburns, AND bouffants... This seems another prize for Elvis to take. 

1. Elvis
2. The Whale
3. The Batman
4. All Quiet on the Western Front
5. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever 

 

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM

I love and hate seeing the shorts every year, because my favorites rarely win - and my LEAST favorites often prevail. Coincidentally, the english language option often wins (maybe voters get too lazy reading so many subtitles) but that would also be my favorite of the bunch. Should I be worried?? Le Pupille is a curious and weird film that's about 15 minutes too long (but has the support of Academy darling Alfonso Cuaron). It also features many kids, a subject voters take kindly to here. The Red Suitcase, perhaps the best here, is also a contender despite it's small story and brief runtime. And last, Night Ride, a somewhat quirky but mostly lazy movie that feels pandering to transgendered people - feels just offensive and saccharine enough to take this prize without a second thought. I hope not!

1. An Irish Goodbye
2. Night Ride
   
3. Le Pupille
4. The Red Suitcase
5. Ivalu

 

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT FILM

Animals are a winning topic, right? Usually the film with the best title wins, but these are a lame bunch to choose from. Baby elephants feel like the perfect topic to award. 

1.  The Elephant Whisperers
2. The Martha Mitchell Effect
3. Stranger at the Gate
4. Haulout
5. How Do You Measure a Year

 

BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM 

 I wish I hadn't watched these, because the Boy and the Mole feels like the victor here. In reality, it's a campy laugh-riot full of Hallmark card dialogue and runs far too long. My audience turned against it so fast and we were laughing our way through this film. My favorite (and the opinion of everyone I've heard from) is that Ice Merchants is far away the best. It's so beautiful and wholly engrossing. My Year of Dicks is also so beautiful (and funny enough, both in content and title) that maybe it could pull out ahead. I'm going with my heart, and I'm fully expecting to lose here. 

1. Ice Merchants
2. The Boy, The Mole, The Fox and the Horse
3. My Year of Dicks
4. An Ostrich Told Me the World is Fake and I Think I Believe it 
5. The Flying Sailor