94th Oscar Predictions

 

This has felt like the longest Oscar season I can remember (though last year I seem to recall the Oscars happened in April). I'm ready to move on! The crop of 2021 movies was certainly more vast and rewarding than the year previous (Nomadland as the pinnacle of the movie year will always feel a bit off). Once again we have 10 Best Picture nominees (the first time since 2010), yet for the first time - the Oscars have decided to award 8 Oscars before the ceremony airs. Many categories are as wide open as I can remember, and I assume the prolonged season and shuffling of precursor awards & dates had a lot to do with it. Here we go:

 

 

 BEST PICTURE

I remember when it was almost unspeakable to imagine Argo winning without a Best Director nomination.  Now here we are with a front-runner missing virtually everything a film would need.

It's another David v Goliath situation (I remember Parasite v 1917, Roma v Green Book, Social Network v King's Speech, etc). It's all the more curious in that the "little indie movie that could" option (CODA) has run the race without key nominations in Best Editing AND Best Director or ANY below the line nominations- stats that even a few years ago would have spelled utter doom for a movie's Best Picture potential. In fact, I think it's been almost 90 years since a movie won the big prize without both nominations (Grand Hotel), and certainly no film in the modern era has won Best Picture while also being snubbed by the Director's Guild (DGA). 

CODA, though, seems to be the one movie that could be an exception to these rules. Why? The little Sundance premiere has had a steady run to the top all season. It took SAG in a beautiful moment with its largely deaf cast. It's an ultimate crowd-pleaser that has near universal appeal. Is it possible that a little movie set in a little New England town can be generally loved by voters and still have only received 3 nominations? Sure. Maybe it was #6 in editing, in original song, in actress... We will never know. Troy Kotsur is guaranteed a win, and it's screenplay (while not a formidable contender in comparison to Power of the Dog), it's still competitive. In the last 10 years, think of all the movies that won Best Picture with a screenplay and acting win? Moonlight, Green Book, 12 Years a Slave.... CODA fits right in. It also shocked some people (not me) by winning PGA - which uses the same preferential voting system as Best Picture at the Oscars. Not 100%, but still telling.

I absolutely prefer Power of the Dog for its mythic take on the west and its challenging and dangerous themes. The film is still a strong contender - and frankly having received a whopping 12 nominations and leading the pack - perhaps its power is still there afterall. It took DGA. It has 4 acting nominations. The 'controversy' surrounding this film has been weak and hatred for it seems to be among a small handful of homophobic elders. I think on paper, Power of the Dog is still technically the one to beat and has the better odds. This race feels most like The Departed v Little Miss Sunshine, the latter of which picked up PGA, SAG (but still got DGA in a somewhat depressing stat for CODA). The little indie that could versus the overdue director in a more serious film. Remember which one of those films won the big prize?

Belfast's chances have sunk month by month - I wouldn't even think of it as a threat anymore. The bigger upset chance might lie with King Richard, which has key nominations in acting, editing, and screenplay. We know it's going to win at least 1 award, too. The other films are so happy to just be nominated. I can't see a single other film outside the top 2 winning. I won't say it's impossible, but it's basically impossible. 

I'm reminded of 2019 when my 2 favorite movies of the year (Parasite & 1917) were the frontrunners for Best Picture. While my favorite movie of this year isn't nominated (Worst Person In The World), these top 2 are my favorites of the 10 nominees. I will be thrilled with either outcome - and if CODA wins, I will be even more elated to have all these "rules" and stats for what it takes to win an Oscar get thrown out the window. This makes the season all the more fun. Some people are rumbling that a CODA win would resemble an upset along the lines of Crash. That's all good and well, except for once, we would actually have a good movie winning.

1. CODA
   
2. The Power of the Dog
3. King Richard
   
4. Belfast
5. Dune
6. West Side Story
7. Licorice Pizza
8. Don't Look Up
9. Drive My Car
10. Nightmare Alley

BEST DIRECTOR

 

Lock it up. I'm not even rearranging the nominees out of the copy-and-paste order I found online. I'm so excited to have back-to-back women winning Best Director, and Campion has been long overdue since last time she faced off against Spielberg for her haunting "The Piano." Can't wait for her speech. Curiously, the film with the most nominations might sneak off with just this one trophy (the last film to win only Best Director was The Graduate in 1967...)

 

By the way, has anyone considered the fact that the two Best Picture frontrunners are directed by women? 

1. Jane Campion, "The Power of the Dog"
2. Kenneth Branagh, "Belfast"
3. Steven Spielberg, "West Side Story"
4. Paul Thomas Anderson, "Licorice Pizza"
5. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, "Drive My Car" 

 

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

 

I love LOVE the fact that for the second year in a row, we have a Best Actress race that is anything but predictable. Where last year there was not a SINGLE nominee who won more than a single of the precursors, here we at least have Chastain picking up both Critic's Choice and SAG (so deserved, by the way). Kidman was an early frontrunner for her role as Lucy by winning the Golden Globe, but her lack of momentum (I think) chalks up to the fact that the Golden Globes love Aaron Sorkin and... that's it. NONE of these nominees showed up at BAFTA where Joanna Scanlan snuck away with her trophy, and critics all season were only singing the praises of one nominee: Kristen Stewart (who was so lucky to get this nomination after so many snubs by the industry. Who wins? I don't know for sure, but I'm playing it safe and picking Jessica Chastain - if only because so many other categories are curiously not predictable. She plays a real woman, she is hidden under makeup, she sings, she runs the gamut of emotions. It's a wonderful performance that many will say is over the top. Momentum has shifted so many times, and I still feel strongly that the passion for Stewart could get her a shocker of an upset, despite her earlier losses. The nomination was the biggest challenge for her. It will be a photo finish.

** since writing, we have gotten a glimpse at the anonymous Oscar ballots (which certainly shouldn’t be used as predictors… we have barely 10 or 20 to go off of), and by a large margin Penelope Cruz has stormed the race. She is unchallenged against most of these women, and while I wouldn’t predict her, perhaps there’s more passion for her to get Oscar #2 than we thought.

1. Jessica Chastain, "The Eyes of Tammy Faye"
   
2. Penelope Cruz, "Parallel Mothers"
3. Kristen Stewart, "Spencer"
4. Nicole Kidman, "Being the Ricardos"
5. Olivia Colman, "The Lost Daughter"

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

I, for one, am thrilled for Will Smith to finally win. He's been so wonderful for so long and it's been easy to look him over as simply a movie star. His performance in King Richard is a great transformation that genuinely moved me and it my favorite of the bunch. Villains don't often win, and Benedict Cumberbatch - though possibly in a Best Picture winner - is going to be trailing Andrew Garfield for his heartfelt and musical performance. Had Tick Tick Boom got a Best Picture nomination (a snub, I tell you), I would argue he was more competitive. No matter. Smith won the Globe, Critic's Choice, SAG, BAFTA... He's going all the way.

1. Will Smith, "King Richard"
2. Andrew Garfield, "Tick, Tick... Boom"
   
3. Benedict Cumberbatch, "The Power of the Dog"
4. Denzel Washington, "The Tragedy of Macbeth"
5. Javier Bardem, "Being the Ricardos"

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

 

Lock this win up. 

1. Ariana DeBose, "West Side Story"
2. Kristen Dunst, "The Power of the Dog"
3. Aunjanue Ellis, "King Richard"
4. Jessie Buckley, "The Lost Daughter"
5. Judi Dench, "Belfast"

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

 

Lock this win up, too. Where Kodi was picking up steam with Critics and the Golden Globes, Kotsur has steamrolled through this season winning every award he needed. His speeches are wonderful, and he's going to be only the second deaf actor to win an Oscar (after his onscreen wife, Marlee Matlin). I'm excited for his speech the most. 

1. Troy Kotsur, "CODA"
2. Kodi Smit-McPhee, "The Power of the Dog"
3. Ciaran Hinds, "Belfast"
4. Jesse Plemons, "The Power of the Dog"
5. JK Simmons, "Being the Ricardos"

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

 

I'm going all in on this CODA train, and I still have to use logic that for a movie to win Best Picture, it needs to win 3 awards (Spotlight was the rare exception with 2). More so than Director, Best Screenplay has been a stronger predictor of whether a movie can win Best Picture or not. All the recent upsets won for writing (Green Book, Parasite, Moonlight, Spotlight, Crash...) If Power of the Dog wins, it will certainly be the most deserving (and Campion will have won an Oscar for both original and adapted works). It reminds of of the La La Land year when voters were able to see past the 'sweep' mentality and still give the Oscar to Manchester by the Ses, which was clearly the more writerly, accomplished script.... I hold out some hope for Dog. 

 

Still, CODA surprised at BAFTA with a screenplay win, and if voters are ready to crown it as the best of the year, why not make it a clean sweep and give it all 3 of its nominations? If CODA loses, I won't count out its chances to win Picture. It will just be all the more surprising. If it wins, CODA will be the first Best Picture winner since Return of the King to sweep the Oscars (though 3 versus 11 is quite a difference, of course...)

1.  CODA
2. The Power of the Dog
3. Drive My Car
4. The Lost Daughter
   
5. Dune

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

 

There's a lot of merit when considering which screenplay the Golden Globes choose to reward (though essentially excommunicated from this year's awards run). They have been spotty, but have called winners like Birdman and Green Book long before those films were considered to win the ultimate Oscar. This year, Belfast was their champion. Many people think that PTA would finally win after 11 nominations for Licorice Pizza, and while he was surprisingly defeated at the Writer's Guild (where Belfast wasn't even eligible, mind you) to Don't Look Up (a fluke, in my opinion), we have to only look back a few years to when The Favourite won WGA and still lost the Oscar to Green Book. 

 

Who wins? This seems like the only place to give Paul Thomas Anderson any love for Pizza, but the film ties for least-nominated among Best Picture nominees, and it's far from his best work. Belfast, which took Critic's Choice - seems like the safe bet. I am a heartbeat away from predicting Worst Person In The World, which anecdotally has the best writing of the bunch among those who have seen all 5 (per anonymous Oscar ballots, casual movie-goers, and film Twitter), but the last time I wanted to predict a non-Best Picture nominee, I fell flat on my face (First Reformed). 

 

I will reluctantly stick with Belfast, as a prize for Kenneth Branagh (who, with this nomination, becomes the person with the most nominations in different categories during his career... He's been nominated in 8 different categories). If Worst Person wins, I'll be annoyed that I wasn't brave enough to take that bet, but ultimately thrilled that the best movie won in the end. 

1. Belfast
2. The Worst Person In The World
   
3. Licorice Pizza
4. Don't Look Up
5. King Richard

BEST EDITING

 

The next 3 categories are certifiably some of the hardest to predict in all the years I've been watching the Oscars.

 

First up is this headache with Best Editing. What do we know about editing winners? They're often tied to the Sound categories (well... category). This bodes well for Dune & Power of the Dog. They're almost always Best Picture nominees (with the occasional Girl With The Dragon Tattoo thrown in). BAFTA has been right the last 2 years in a row (though this won't help us since they gave it to James Bond). In the last 10 years BAFTA has a 60% accuracy. Critics Choice has 50% accuracy - but they too went with the un-nominated West Side Story.  ACE Eddie (Editor's Guild) has an abysmal 40% accuracy this decade - and yet they picked King Richard.

Where does this leave us? I like the ties to Sound - the last 8 winners in a row won either Best Sound Editing or Mixing. We all know who's winning sound this year (*cough* Dune). You have to go all the way back to The Departed in 2006 to find a winner that received no sound nominations. That's a pretty strong run - granted sound did consolidate into 1 category last year. I still feel strongly about Power's changes, despite its glacial pace. Its chapters and very taught storytelling is quietly effective, and I could see it winning more than we expect. 

I still predict Dune, although I find its editing some of the weakest of the bunch. It's an action movie, it's visual effects heavy, its certainly showy. Why not? I'm close to switching to Power, but I'm holding out for more compelling upsets further down.

1. Dune
2. The Power of the Dog
3. Tick, Tick... Boom!
4. King Richard
5. Don't Look Up

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

 

What is even happening with this category? The first stat that leaps to mind is this category's tie to Visual Effects. 7 movies since 2009 have either won or been nominated for visual effects when winning this category - though in recent years they have gone for more traditional films. Only one film that won Critic's Choice & BAFTA went on to lose this category: last year's Nomadland. You know who won both this year? Dune. (It also JUST won the Cinematography guild to add to its roster).

There's buzz around Ari Wegner possibly becoming the first female winner for Power of the Dog. I certainly think her work is some of the best, and I prefer it to Dune. My question: where has it won? 

This is my Hail Mary moment - that West Side Story takes it. The first time I saw the film, I could not get Janusz Kaminski out of my mind. The shots and framings he created were jaw-dropping. There's a shot of Tony standing in a puddle that might be the best-photographed shot I've ever seen. He hasn't won since the 1990's. West Side Story has only grown in stature and buzz since releasing on streaming. I absolutely can see this film winning more than 1 award, and the one thing I keep hearing about this movie is "look at that shot.... Look at that." I fully expect Dune to be announced, but if I get this right, I just want to say I knew it from the beginning.

1. West Side Story
2. Dune
   
3. The Power of the Dog
4. The Tragedy of Macbeth
5. Nightmare Alley

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

 

And the last of the "what is happening" categories. Dune is favored to win. I almost want to predict it just so I don't lose on too many long-shots. It has won most of the Art Director's awards, and its only firm competition is Nightmare Alley, and this is where I am held up. 

 

The last 2 Guillermo del Toro movies have won in this category, and you certainly can't deny that the strength of Nightmare Alley is its visuals. From the circus community to the lavish upscale offices in the noir-inspired city, this is a good looking film. Personally, I favor Dune for it's dark hallways and gloomy interiors, but I can see this being one of those years where every Best Picture nominee (well, almost every one... sorry Licorice Pizza) walks away with at least one. Also, Dune's back half is almost entirely in the desert - and its showiest moments come at the very top. Alley continues to build and build. The safe bet is Dune, but I'm sensing upset #2.

1. Nightmare Alley
   
2. Dune
3. West Side Story
4. The Power of the Dog
5. The Tragedy of Macbeth

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

 

Ever since I saw Cruella drive off on the back of a garbage truck with a dress and a 50-foot long train, I knew this was a done deal. Dune is a close second for its detailed and surprisingly beautiful costumes which helped create an other-worldly feeling almost more than any other aspect. 

1. Cruella
2. Dune
3. West Side Story
4. Nightmare Alley
5. Cyrano

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

 

I think Tammy Faye was maybe the worst of these nominees, but I was convinced when BAFTA awarded it even though Chastain was not even nominated. It's weird, oftentimes fake-looking makeup that is caked on our actors like a mask - but it's been winning. Who am I to argue with that? Dune feels like it should be more of a front-runner, but besides Stellan Skarsgard's fat-suit, it's hard to find another character with a significant enough makeup transformation to justify a win here.  It's still a strong second. I doubt the Jared Leto transformation is enough to carry that whole film to victory. Cruella is... fine. Coming 2 America is another Norbit - a worthy nominee, but rarely do 'Nutty Professor' style nominees win.

1. The Eyes of Tammy Faye
   
2. Dune
3. House of Gucci
4. Cruella
5. Coming 2 America

BEST SOUND

 

Sound and editing have been in lock step for several years now - and even in nailbiter close calls like last year's Sound of Metal, what won sound ended up helping its win in editing. For this reason Dune is the likeliest of winners, and deservedly so. Power of the Dog's inclusion here was curious but very rewarding - and gives me hope that it could pull off a Best Editing upset. 

1. Dune
2. No Time To Die
3. West Side Story
4. Belfast
5. The Power of the Dog

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

 

Dune. Done. 

1. Dune
2. No Time to Die
3. Spider-Man: No Way Home
4. Free Guy
5. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

 

Dune. Done. It's criminal that Hans Zimmer's long-awaited second Oscar win will be filmed before the ceremony even takes place and spliced into the ceremony (time allowing). What a bafflingly-bad decision.

1. Dune
2. The Power of the Dog
3. Encanto
4. Don't Look Up
5. Parallel Mothers

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

 

I thought Lin Manuel Miranda would have been a lock - this is certainly the best song from Encanto (in my opinion), but yet again we have a James Bond theme that is sweeping, and Billie & Finneas seem like solidly-locked (albeit boring) frontrunners. I want to predict Encanto - but no one is picking Dos Oruguitas for awards. I suspect Miranda's time for EGOT is still coming soon. 

1.  "No Time to Die," No Time to Die
2. "Dos Oruguitas," Encanto
3. "Be Alive," King Richard
4. "Down to Joy," Belfast
5. "Somehow You Do," Somehow You Do

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

 

How I would love for an upset by Worst Person, but you don't bet against a film that gets Picture, Director, and Screenplay nominations. They never lose.  

1. Drive My Car
2. The Worst Person In The World
3. Flee
4. The Hand of God
5. Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

 

An amazing film is about to win the Oscar, and I can't wait. Summer of Soul's biggest hurdle was the nomination itself (front-runners are notoriously snubbed for even a nomination). Flee is great, but is not the best of these 5. 

1. Summer of Soul
2. Flee
3. Ascension
4. Attica
5. Writing With Fire

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

 

I can't believe Encanto, one of Disney's most bland, boring, generic movies is sweeping its way to the Oscar - especially over choices like Flee and Mitchells, but aside from the rare Mitchell's upset, Encanto seems determined to cross the finish line with all the might of Disney behind it. I don't love it, but sometimes this category and me have varying opinions of 'best of the year.'

1. Encanto
2. The Mitchells vs. the Machines
3. Flee
   
4. Luca
5. Raya and the Last Dragon

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

 

Many people are predicting Queen of Basketball to win, and with this category's history of winners with catchy titles (Period End of Sentence, Heaven is a Traffic Jam, Learning to Skateboard In A Warzone If You're A Girl, etc) and the general consensus - Queen of Basketball seems like a logical, if unresearched, guess. 

1.  The Queen of Basketball
2. Audible
3. Lead Me Home
4. Three Songs for Benazir
5. When We Were Bullies

BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT

 

By all accounts, the good will for Riz Ahmed might carry The Long Goodbye to a victory on Sunday night, and having not seen the nominees this year - I will allow general consensus to guide this victory. 

1. The Long Goodbye
2. Please Hold
3. The Dress
   
4. Ala Kachuu - Take and Run
5. On My Mind

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

 

Cute animals often (not always) help. Robin Robin has Netflix behind it, and the other 4 nominees are DOUR. Some of the darkest films of the year are hidden in this category. Robin stands out for that reason alone, but if there’s an upset, I suspect Bestia (about a woman’s dark visions while serving in a corrupt 1970’s Chilean government group which tortured individuals (its an animated film, let me remind you) might benefit for its short run time and haunting visuals. The folks who nominated these films were certainly feeling something that day…

1.  Robin Robin
2. Bestia
3. The Windshield Wiper
4. Boxballet
5. Affairs of the Art

John's Favorite Movies of 2021

Another hectic year of delayed releases, minimal trips to the cinema, streaming virtually everything... In another year I probably would have seen all the Oscar contenders by Christmas, now I am still struggling to see some of the Best Picture nominees (Drive My Car might have to wait for my 2022 list if it lives up to the hype). I find it curious how the pandemic has shifted my view of going to the movies. I feel less urgency to see new releases, I'm more highly critical of those movies I see. I will say that 2021 was leaps and bounds better than 2020 - both in terms of creativity and variety of storytelling. I posted a similar list on another social media profile - but now having a more well-rounded sense of what was released, here is my top 10 (only 2 months late)....

RUNNERS UP:

•  THE MITCHELLS V THE MACHINES
• THE FRENCH DISPATCH
• IN THE HEIGHTS
• KING RICHARD
• WEST SIDE STORY

10. THE RESCUE

Not the only documentary on this list. The follow-up from the makers of "Free Solo," here is a more intimate and dare I say thrilling story about the rescue of a group of boys trapped miles underground in a Thai cave, slowly filling with water. In terms of superhero movies, I don't think Marvel even holds a candle to the heroism on display by the rag-tag group of divers who came together to get these boys out. Unbelievable in every way. 

9. PIG

Absolutely not what I expected given the recent slate of Nicolas Cage's filmography. Where I expected a wild, twisted story ala 'Mandy,' here was a somber, beautiful story of loss, heartbreak, and passions. The story of a hermit who hunts for truffles with the help of his pet pig - what unfolds is a story of this man's past and what would lead him to a life of solitude in the West Coast mountains. Cage surprises in almost every scene he is in (particularly an unforgettable moment in a restaurant). His stub at the Academy Awards is (shockingly) disrespectful. 

8. THE GREEN KNIGHT

One of the last movies of the year I saw, hesitant to see it at first, but ultimately wowed by a broad production that produced one amazing set-piece after the other. Dev Patel continues to make interesting choices where he could otherwise be a romantic lead or star in A-list action movies. This is a movie of writing, development, and utter beauty. I can't go too much into plot, but just saying that it is a fantasy wonder should be enough. 

7. TICK, TICK... BOOM!

Up until December I genuinely thought this would end up as my #1 of the year. A stunning debut from Lin-Manuel Miranda about the life and times of Broadway composer Johnathan Larson. It's a remarkable musical and charismatic performance by Andrew Garfield, who should be taken seriously as a threat to win Best Actor despite the film's shortcomings. It's a play with in a play within a movie within a memory. It's so intricately assembled and yet so wonderful to follow on its journey. 

6. DON'T LOOK UP

I was disturbed by the lack of general praise this film received, as I thought it was a razor-sharp satire that again and again had me full of dread thinking "yup, this is what would happen." A commentary on global warming, on COVID, on conservatism. I love Adam McKay's ear for dialogue and razor sharp editing that is oftentimes shocking and so apparently rough around the edges. The film concludes on such a somber and beautiful note - if it wasn't so funny it might drive me to tears. I will go to my grave saying that Mark Rylance gives the year's absolute best performance as a tech guru from some psychedelic corner of Hell. 

5. CODA

It's a story I've seen a million times, and is as predictable as it is utterly charming. For one reason or another, this is a movie that works on almost all fronts. I can barely think of a flaw. A child of deaf adults (CODA) wants to go away to college, while her deaf family struggles to run a fishing business on the east coast. The cast is as good as any movie in many years. The ending is a whopper that simply draws tears from my eyes at the simple thought of it. Troy Kotsur will be an Oscar winner, mark my words, or the Oscars will lost much credibility. It's the feel-good movie of 2021. 

4. SUMMER OF SOUL

WOW WOW WOW. This is a movie not to miss - documentary or not. The insane footage of a predominantly black and Latino music festival in Manhattan - the same year as the moon landing - footage largely buried since distributors didn't have an interest in "Black Woodstock." This is a documentary to end all documentaries. Dynamite clips of some of the best musicians of all time. Questlove assembles this movie both with love and a curiosity about the times of this moment. MLK was just assassinated. The anger was palpable. Yet here, in a park, thousands of people gathered to join in a mass celebration of the power of music. 

3. MASS

This was my #1 movie of the year when I prematurely made my list on instagram. An insular story told largely in one room with 4 actors. The story of healing after a school shooting - where the parents of the perpetrator and one of the victims come together to talk, to argue, and to hopefully move on. It's the best cast of the year. Our female leads (Ann Dowd and Martha Plimpton) were robbed of Oscar wins, forget the nominations. You will not see a better-written movie this year, nor will you be more heartbroken by the end. There is a building tension that is resolved by one of the most cathartic moments between two characters - a simple embrace changes almost everything we have come to expect. Not to be missed. 

2. THE POWER OF THE DOG

I'm so excited to see Jane Campion finally win Best Director and Best Picture (I think her movie "The Piano" is one of the greatest movies ever made). This is a stunning western that defies all the rules, and it a dangerous assemblage of tension with scene after scene that is razor sharp and so beautifully crafted. What can be said that hasn't already been said? You watch this movie all the way through and immediately want to start it again. Not a moment is out of place. The writing is crisp and the cast is undeniable. With each rewatch I've found new gems (and I'm already up to viewing #4). Not for everyone, but certainly a movie that people need to see to understand the power that movies can have. 

1. THE WORST PERSON IN THE WORLD

If this isn't your favorite movie of the year I can't believe that you even love movies. In every way, this is a stunning achievement of writing, acting, storytelling, comedy, drama, and plot. It was in no way what I expected, and yet I left the theater realizing that this was exactly what I needed it to be. Like "Parasite" a few years ago, this movie runs the gamut of emotions from side-splitting humor to self-reflection to a deep and utter sadness that left me in a puddle. Renate Reinsve is a megastar. This is Amelie for 2021. I can't stress enough how much this movie has changed my life. Don't worry about the language barrier either - this is a story that will leave everyone thinking "how does this writer know so much about my life?" 

John's Favorite Movies of 2020 (only 4 months late)

It's been hard to see everything, and frankly I haven't sought out too many new releases in the last 12 months. I only finally saw the last of the Best Picture nominees last week. With Oscars around the corner, now feels like a good time to close the door on 2020 once and for all. I saw so few films that I was barely able to scrape together a top 10 list that I actually felt was good. Here we go: 

10. JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH

    Not so surprising that my list does include a generous sprinkling of Oscar nominees - Judas stood out to me as the best of this year's "historical/period" crop, including other choices like Trial of the Chicago 7 and One Night In Miami. 'Judas' stood out as leaps beyond the competition - a story of an FBI informant who infiltrates a Chicago-based chapter of the Black Panters, led by a charismatic Fred Hampton (Daniel Kaluuya is all but guaranteed an Oscar this year). The film is wonderfully styled and assembled, directed by Shaka King - this is a director to look out for. It carries on with an ever-present rising tension, culminating in a horrific yet sobering finale. 

9. PALM SPRINGS

    I was late to the "Palm Springs" party based on the film's premise - what I assumed was a lazy reworking of 'Groundhog's Day.' Hey, even with 'Happy Death Day,' this is quickly becoming a tired genre. What surprised me was the film's level of humanity - and its structure. The story begins far into Andy Samberg's repetitive cycle towards infinity, reliving the day of a wedding and reception... over and overr... and shows a new woman (Sarah) accidentally stumbling into the time loop by mere fluke. What follows is a comedy in which both leads are suffering through the realization that actions no longer have consequences, and any chance at romance is almost doomed from the start. There are still a few moments that leave me with questions (including the final post-credits scene), but in a way that helps me to wonder over it even more.  

8. BORAT SUBSEQUENT MOVIEFILM

    I genuinely laughed more than I expected at this surprise follow-up to the original Borat film (which I still found genuinely funny on rewatching), which takes a more pointed political stance and uses COVID-19 as a brilliant way to reintroduce this offensive character back into the zeitgeist of pop-culture. The real star is, of course, Maria Bakalova - a surprise Oscar nominee who plays Tutar, Borat's daughter. The plot revolves around using Tutar as an 'offering' to the Trump administration in order to win Borat favor with his homeland, and the cringe-worthy humor just flows from there. Bakalova and Cohen are perfect - and scene after scene was simply gold (Borat's visit to a synagogue, and Tutar's conversation with her babysitter, Jeanise). It's crude, offensive, and certainly not for everyone, but I loved every minute. 

7. THE FATHER

    One of the last movies I saw in 2020 (in fact, I saw it in March 2021, ha!) and was instantly one that became one of my most admired. The story of a man (Anthony Hopkins) and his daughter (Olivia Colman) and his struggle with dementia. The premise is laughably simple - but what director Florian Zeller achieves is remarkable. The film is essentially told from Hopkin's point-of-view, and everything from the position of a piano against the wall - to the actors playing each role - changes scene to scene. It's an immediately disorienting process as we, like Hopkins, struggle to keep up. Is his daughter moving to Paris? Has he lost his watch? This is something that I think is primed perfectly for the art of cinema - and I realize this was based on a play. The editing and set design works so wonderfully to create this sense of paranoia - but specifically Anthony Hopkins - who arguably has never been better. In fact, I can't think of a male actor who has given a better performance in the last 20 years or more. 

6. NOMADLAND

    I was certainly thrown off by this film's semingly plotless approach to the story - but was quickly engrossed in the journey of Fern (Frances McDormand), who loses her job and husband during the Recession and becomes a nomad - living out of her van, traveling across the American west in search of work here and there. The film shows us a year in her life - as she works for Amazon.com for the holiday season, then journeys east along with a caravan of fellow travelers (many of whom are non-actors). There is a Malick-like sense of awe within the setting of nature here (I know many have said this already), and the film's success comes from its wandering shots of sunsets over endless horizons. McDormand anchors this movie with a quiet yet convincing performance - and we believe her struggles along the way (the cost of a flat tire, or the struggle of sub-zero temperatures while trying to stay warm). Director Chloe Zhao has made better films in the past ("The Rider" is certainly one of the better films I've seen in the last few years), but for some reason, it is this movie that introduces her to a more mainstream audience. I certainly can't complain about that. 

5. THE INVISIBLE MAN

    The first movie I saw in 2020 that makes my year-end-list and it still manages to shock me with each reviewing. The retelling of this classic "monster movie" fits so well into a 2020 setting - that of a woman escaping her abusive boyfriend and ultimately coming to be stalked by him... Or is she going crazy? Elisabeth Moss is this year's 'snubbed actress in a horror movie,' following in the footsteps of Toni Collette and Lupita N'Yongo as powerhouse actors who failed to get Oscar-nominated simply due to the genre of their work. This film is wrought with tension, and some of the most effective visual effects of the year. The icing on the cake is the film's final scene - a moment of such satisfaction that I remember audiences cheering as the film cut to black. Across the board - this film never missed. 

4. SOUND OF METAL

    Very close to being my favorite movie of the year. The story of a heavy metal drummer (Riz Ahmed) who suddenly begins to lose his hearing. The film follows his retreat to a rehab shelter for the deaf (Ruben, our drummer, is also a recovering drug addict). At the shelter, he is introduced to the deaf community - learns to sign, meets members of the deaf community, etc, all the while he researches cochlear implants in hopes to return to normal and begin drumming again. Paul Raci, the rehab leader, is unforgettable in a brief but tender performance, and of course Riz Ahmed is vying among the year's very best. The film's successes (they are countless) are crowned by a sound design that works to hear the world through Ruben's perspective - both after becoming deaf and after regaining his hearing. It's marvelous work. I felt so immersed in every moment. I almost never wanted this film to end. 

3. MINARI

    If I were voting for Best Picture this year, my choice would be solidly for "Minari." An American movie (no, Golden Globes, this isn't an international production) with largely Korean dialogue - this is the story of an immigrant family from South Korea who makes their way to the American midwest in the 1980's. The father (Steven Yeun) dreams of growing a large farm and cultivating the land. he inspires his young son to dream big. His wife (Han Ye-ri, criminally snubbed this season for her brilliant work) is more grounded - struggles to see life in their new home in the middle of nowhere. Their marriage is tested. She invites her mother to make the journey to America as well, (Youn Yuh-jung) a whipsmart grandma who brings with her a sense of life to this humble scenery - and brings a supply of minari, a native plant to Korea which ultimately begins to thrives in a nearby creek. From its soundtrack to its writing (director Lee Isaac Chung tells a story loosely based on his childhood upbringing), this is so clearly the choice for Best Picture among this year's slate - and a perfect way to end a year so full of loss and doubt.  

2. QUO VADIS, AIDA?

    The very last movie I saw before assembling this list, and probably the most important of my picks. This is a Bosnian film that recounts a 1995 genocide committed by opposing army forces of Bosnian men and boys numbering in the thousands. Uplifting, I know. This is a film is bleak struggle and yet surprising humanity. We follow a UN translator (Jasna Đuričić - who very much should have been nominated for and won the Best Actress Oscar this year. Her performance is manic, frazzled, always moving forward - using her leverage as translator in an attempts to protect her husband and two boys from the oncoming terror. The film is largely set in real time in a UN base which holds tens of thousands of refugees with nowhere to go. I am not familiar with the Bosnian War, per se, and I was not aware of what was coming - but through Aida - I felt the ever present sense of doom, and watched the final act through an onslaught of tears. This is a film unlike any other - and I encourage as many people as possible to watch it. Very few movies have left me as completely undone. 

1. PORTRAIT OF A LADY ON FIRE

    Ok so it's cheating to say a 2019 movie is the best movie of 2020. In my defense - "Portrait" was not released in the United States until at least January or February 2020 and by that point I had already compiled my list. Criminally snubbed at the Oscars (not even nominated for Foreign Film), this film suffered a from a weird release schedule and the dominance of another foreign film (Parasite) taking away all this film's thunder. 

The moment I saw this masterpiece, I knew that I would keep it in this position until I saw another film better. 15 months later and I have yet to see anything that tops it. A lush, romantic, stunning, raw portrait of love that is told in such striking beautiful ways. The film's ending - a series of 3 or 4 scenes, builds to one of the most powerful crescendos... It's a perfect film. 

Official 93rd Oscar Predictions

 

It's been a year. What else can be said? With the impact of COVID, the extended qualifying period for eligible films, an increase in streaming nominees, this year's Academy Awards feel messy, unresolved, and far from cookie-cutter. Where last year I had seen the eventual Best Picture winner (Parasite, ah such bliss that was) in October, I don't think I had seen this year's winner (details to come) until February. While I don't like many of the nominees (in fact I actively despise a few Best Picture nominees), this has actually shaped out to be one of the more interesting years in many races - so many of which feel like absolute mysteries. Now that BAFTA and SAG are complete - this is as clear a picture as we will have for these races. Without delay:

BEST PICTURE

1. Nomadland
2. Minari
3. Trial of the Chicago 7
4. Promising Young Woman
5. Judas and the Black Messiah
6. The Father
7. Sound of Metal
8. Mank

As much as I despised "Trial," I acknowledge it is in prime upset territory given its recent SAG Ensemble victory (the winner of this wins Best Picture approximately 50% of the time) and its key nominations (and despite a Best Director snub. Remember Green Book? Argo? Best Director isn't always needed anymore). 

On paper, it has to be "Nomadland." It won PGA. It won The Critic's Choice. Golden Globe. BAFTA... Does anyone hate it? I admit it's a very abnormal film to win Best Picture, but this is a very abnormal year for anything. A film with a single female lead and a cast of virtually all non-actors. There's no plot. It's slow. It missed SAG Ensemble (though so did Shape of Water & Green Book... I think the fact that Frances got nominated is enough to rest easy). It feels very much like "Boyhood" which was once a front-runner then was snubbed for a showier movie (Birdman). Will it win? I think so. Chloe Zhao came out of the far recesses of indie cinema to bring us this timely drama, and it stands to reason this will be the second-ever film to win Best Picture directed by a woman (The Hurt Locker). 

The wildly weird "Promising Young Woman," which got all the essential nominations needed along with "Nomad" (Director, Editing, Acting, Screenplay) seems primed for an upset. Is that film as widely regarded, especially when put to count on a preferential ballot? (the film with the highest average of ranking (ie, most 1st, 2nd, 3rd place votes) wins). I personally would rank "Woman" relatively low on my ballot, and "Nomad" relatively high. Wouldn't you? 

I had hope for "Minari" earlier this season, and I still suspect an outside chance. The anonymous ballots from Oscar voters in recent weeks all hold the film in high regard. The film shows the struggle and acceptance of a Korean family into middle America in the 1980's. Amidst the #StopAsianHate news this year, it feels like the perfect "in" to reward this film. It could still happen, but its loss at SAG and elsewhere (not to mention a Korean-language film just won last year... Are they going to reward what is essentially a foreign-language film back to back?) makes this more of a long shot. Unless it becomes the first movie since "Spotlight" to win only 2 awards... Or the first in nearly 90 to win only  Best Picture (depending on a few other races). 

Bet on "Nomadland," but with so many surprises in recent years I wouldn't be surprised for any sort of upset. While I correctly gleaned "Parasite" as the victor last year, even that was technically an upset. It will be a nail-biter up until the final envelope. If there is a year when a film wins only Best Picture and no other statue, this feels like it. 

**I moved Trial of the Chicago 7 up over Promising Young Woman because I have to imagine on a preferential ballot that the latter would rank lower on more peoples' ballots... It's simply too divisive to win, right? Along the same logic, Minari is in 2nd place on account of its universal adoration and a gut feeling that if there is an upset, that would be it...

BEST DIRECTOR

1. Chloe Zhao (Nomadland)
2. Lee Isaac Chung (Minari)
3. Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman)
4. David Fincher (Mank)
5. Thomas Vinterberg (Another Round)

Lock this category up. The narrative for at least 6 months has been that Zhao will become the second female Best Director winner, and deservedly so. While some years they reward this for the film with the most visual effects or trickiest camerawork, Zhao's film is sheer poetry and a marvel of tone and place. It's a deserved win. 

This category was almost majority female (many thought Regina King's work on "One Night In Miami" would sneak in here) but the simple fact we have 2 female nominees is groundbreaking in itself. Hell, there are only two white male nominees here. When has that ever happened? Lee Isaac Chung's personal work in "Minari" shows more skill (I think) over Fennell's twisted yet sloppy debut (my opinion). Fincher should be so happy to be here for one if his weakest pictures, and Vinterberg continues the tradition of having a rogue foreign film nominee - albeit deserving. If Chloe Zhao loses it will be a major shocker.

BEST LEADING ACTOR

1. Anthony Hopkins (The Father)
2. Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom)
3. Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal)
4. Steven Yeun (Minari)
5. Gary Oldman (Mank)

Aside from Oldman's head-scratching inclusion here, this would be a list for the ages. Again, another category that is majority persons of color. What a year. 

I am walking off a cliff here. Going down with this ship, whatever. Let me explain. Chadwick is far and away the front-runner to win here. He took home Golden Globe, SAG, Critic's Choice... The narrative is there - that he died of cancer while giving it all for his last performance. He was a fine actor, and yet this performance was a very clear miss for me. I think I'm alone here - and I acknowledge I'm letting personal bias get in the way of predictions. No matter how you spin it, Chadwick is the apparent winner here. 

Let's look at Anthony Hopkins. His last Oscar victory (in fact his only victory) was for "Silence of the Lambs" 30 years ago. Since then, he has amassed 6 nominations (including last year for "The Two Popes"). If you have a 1 in 5 chance of winning in a given year, then he's due. Not to mention his performance is almost universally acclaimed as his best work to date. It's an actor's dream. It's showy as hell. Should one of the world's best actors really only have 1 Oscar this late in his career? "The Father" is the last of the Best Picture nominees to get released - and it's showing with thunderous praise - that late-breaking support could set him over the edge. It's the freshest performance in voters' minds. He also just took the BAFTA in a not-so-surprising upset. Hometown advantage, sure, but Olivia Colman also won her respective BAFTA race and no one seemed to suspect what was to come...

I have put personal feelings aside in the past - predicting Glenn Close over the clear superiority of Olivia Colman... Assuming Julie Christie would prevail over one of the screen's greatest performances by Marion Cotillard. Predicting Viola over Meryl "Thatcher..." If you're betting, put your chips on Chadwick Boseman. This is a losing gamble for me (I think) - but if I'm right, I want those bragging rights. There have only been 2 posthumous acting winners in Academy history. Those are pretty slim odds. Also think on this - that Best Actor hasn't gone to a performance that wasn't in a Best Picture nominee since 2009 (Jeff Bridges in Crazy Heart). Hey, maybe even Riz Ahmed (brilliant, devastating work by the way) has a better shot than we think...

BEST LEADING ACTRESS

1. Andra Day (The United States vs. Billie Holliday)
2. Viola Davis (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom)
3. Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman)
4. Frances McDormand (Nomadland)
5. Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a Woman)

WHAT. A. CATEGORY. In 50 years when I reflect back on Oscar races (if I still care by then), I imagine the 2020 Best Actress Race will be one of the most memorable. Usually we can predict fairly easily with the precursors. Whoever wins the most is probably winning the Oscar. It's not 100%, but it's genuinely simple math. Last year, Renee Zelwegger won virtually every award that was available. Of course she was going to win the Oscar. i could have napped through this category when it happened. 

Well... Let's look at the tea leaves. Andra Day won the Golden Globe (in an upset) but was snubbed at SAG and BAFTA. Carey Mulligan won Critic's Choice but was snubbed by BAFTA (and lost the SAG, which she realistically should have won to have stayed a threat). Viola Davis shocked us all and won SAG (but of course she was snubbed by BAFTA (and if you're curious, yes - they still nominated Chadwick Boseman). McDormand only won BAFTA but was competing against virtually none of these women.  Kirby is so lucky to be included at all. 

Who wins?? Many prognosticators still think Mulligan is ahead. How? She has won virtually nowhere and her performance isn't as showy as the rest. Others think McDormand given her film's clout. I counter with - which actor has won their 3rd Academy Award with such a subtle performance... and one that has won no precursors? 

I'm telling you that it has to be Davis or Day. We have gone 92 years with only one black actress to win this award (otherwise it's been entirely white actors) - Halle Berry in "Monster's Ball." It's time for some more women to join her company. In fact it's embarrassing that it hasn't happened since. Viola Davis as Ma Rainey is such a technically brilliant role, but her screen time amounts to no more than 20 minutes. How funny that if she were to win, she would have won a supporting actress Oscar for a lead role (Fences), and a lead actress Oscar for a supporting one (Ma Rainey)... Both August Wilson adaptations, no less. 

This award is Andra Day's. I just feel it deep down. Yes, she was snubbed by SAG (so was Regina King), but this performance has it all. She sings her own songs in the style of Holliday. She has nudity. She has graphic sex scenes. She does drugs. She even dies a tragic death. She has a single long-take of an outpouring of emotion. She plays a real person... In the history of the Oscars, she is a cookie-cutter example of what typically wins Best Actress. Despite her being the film's only nomination (I'm not surprised, the film is tragically awful), that hasn't stopped other actresses from winning here in the past - I'm looking at you, Julianne Moore. In such an untraditional year, I think someone like Day can just squeeze in by a hair. 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah)
2. Paul Raci (Sound of Metal)
3. Sasha Baron Cohen (The Trial of the Chicago 7)
4. Leslie Odom, Jr. (One Night in Miami)
5. Lakeith Stanfield (Judas and the Black Messiah)

Kaluuya is making the traditional "sweep" that I mentioned so many other actors have in years past. He hasn't lost anywhere. It's a powerhouse performance. He's already been nominated before. The only shakeup is the surprise inclusion of Stanfield (who is arguably the film's lead) who might siphon off votes. Still, this feels so utterly locked that putting Raci in second place is nothing but sheer personal preference. 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Yuh-Jung Youn (Minari)
2. Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm)
3. Glenn Close (Hilbilly Elegy)
4. Olivia Colman (The Father)
5. Amanda Seyfried (Mank)

This category, like lead actress, has been full of twists and turns. Jodie Foster won the Globe (the first time the winner in this category was snubbed at the Oscars in literally dozens of years). Youn won SAG and BAFTA. Bakalova won Critic's Choice... Even Close, who has won nothing, still has a shot if voters realize she's about to become 0:8 on Oscar wins... She would also become the first person to win an Oscar for a performance that was also Razzie-nominated. 

In my heart the clear winner is Bakalova. She stole every scene she was in and performed daring feats that are likely to go unnoticed to many. Her film is simply "not" what many imagine as an Oscar-winner. Still, maybe there can be a tie. Youn is so brilliant in "Minari" that about halfway through the film I got the feeling deep down that this is a master at work - and that her performance is so clearly the year's best in this category. I think it's down to those two only. Whoever sneaks ahead will truly be deserving. I even think Colman deserves this and my only hesitation is that she won in a surprise only a few years ago. How many times would the Academy allow Colman to upset over Glenn Close, anyways?

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. The Father
2. Nomadland
3. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
4. One Night in Miami
5. The White Tiger

I think this race is closer between "Father" and "Nomad" than we believe. Where Zhao's film is slow, winding, plotless, "The Father" is full of slight of hand and sharp dialogue. It's the director's own adaptation of his play. It's the more writerly work - but are voters going to see Nomadland and check it without a moment's hesitation? For now, I predict "The Father's" witty approach will sneak out a victory - and as sad as that sounds, Zhao is still going home with at least 2 Oscars. I put Borat so high only because the bottom two underperformed and with this being Cohen's third nomination (along with a slew of writers on board... 9 nominated writers, to be exact), maybe this could be the odd category out where voters say (excuse me), "fuck it." 

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. Promising Young Woman
2. Minari
3. Trial of the Chicago 7
4. Sound of Metal
5. Judas and the Black Messiah

While it's not my favorite screenplay, there is still the narrative that no female has won for screenwriting since Diablo Cody in 2007 (Juno) and now we have a year when 2 female writers have a chance at winning in both categories. It's certainly the most ambitious of the nominees. Also the one with a few major plot twists. While Sorkin won for "Trial" at the Globes, he has certainly written better screenplays in his sleep. Chung's personal story in "Minari" could upset, but of the two writing categories, this seems like the more locked option. 

BEST FILM EDITING

1. Trial of the Chicago 7
2. Sound of Metal
3. Promising Young Woman
4. The Father
5. Nomadland

This is an updated prediction from the original post. With Trial winning the ACE Eddie Award (not 100% accurate, but still a good forecaster), I have switched from "Sound" which always felt like an odd choice to win in this category. The logic is that Sound and Editing are often tied, and no film since "The Departed" has won Editing without a sound nomination. Metal has won most of the precursors, but I was never able to understand why that film would be heralded as an achievement in film editing versus sound design. With Trial's victory, this feels like a safer choice - with crosscutting back and forth through time and scenes. This allows every Best Picture nominee to walk away with at least 1 trophy each (should everything play out). My personal pick would still be Promising Young Woman, a messy film yes, but razor sharp in its assembly. 

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
2. Emma
3. Mank
4. Pinnochio
5. Mulan

Another category where I have zero empirical evidence to back my claims. "Mank" is the sole Best Picture nominee here, but black and white movies don't fare well here unless they're called "The Artist." "Ma Rainey" has been racking up the tech precursors, and with its period setting it seems logical here (however it's tiny in scope and almost every character has only 1 costume in the film). "Emma" seems more logical... Period, British, etc, but then I remember how my ass was handed to me for predicting "The Favourite" over "Black Panther." Also, who even saw "Emma?" At least voters would have seen "Ma" in order to see these nominated performances. 

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. Mank
2. The Father
3. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
4. News of the World
5. Tenet

And here I go picking a black and white nominee. Why? I guess because the film (inspired by the behind-the-scenes of the writing of "Citizen Kane") draws from many historical sets as well as those iconic locations in Kane. Also because there's no other clear front-runner here. I would say typically don't pick the contemporary nominee here, but "The Father" uses art direction in such a specific way to confuse the audience that actually maybe it's closer to winning than I'm giving it credit. Also, Production Design & Costumes are almost always tied - meaning you need a nomination in both to even being considered to win. This isn't a rule- just a weird coincidence people started noticing in recent years. That bodes well for films starting with the letter M. 

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

1. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
2. Pinnochio
3. Hilbilly Elegy
4. Mank
5. Emma

To be honest, "Hibilly" being nominated here scares me when considering Glenn Close an upset. Makeup and acting are often closely tied. Iron Lady, La Vie En Rose, Les Mis, Dallas Buyer's Club, etc. Then again, maybe this should signal I should be predicting Viola over Anra Day in Actress... The conundrum...  "Ma Rainey" won the guild, and while it doesn't have very showy prosthetic work, my mind still races to that sweaty, makeup-drenched face of Viola Davis, silver teeth and all, to convince me that is the probable winner. "Pinnochio" is that prosthetic-driven feature that might win, but then again, I hadn't even heard of this movie prior to nominations, and I'm sure you hadn't, either. Case closed. 

BEST SOUND

1. Sound of Metal
2. Soul
3. News of the World
4. Mank
5. Greyhound

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1. Soul
2. Minari
3. Mank
4. News of the World
5. Da 5 Bloods

When I saw "Soul," I specifically asked them not to turn off the TV until I could see who composed the music. I was that impressed. In retrospect, I can't think of a single melody or tune that stuck out, nor could I even describe the style of music. Still, that initial gut reaction would have me pick "Soul" out of all the nominees, although "Minari" might be a close second. Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross are double-nominated here (Mank & Soul), and while they might have vote-splitting, "Soul" has taken virtually every award thus far. John Batiste is the third nominee for the film. Trent & Atticus are the most recent winners in this category to share the award (more than one composer) for "Social Network." "The Last Emperor" in 1987 is the last victor to have 3 nominees. 

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1. "Husavik" (Eurovision Song Contest)
2. "Speak Now" (One Night in Miami)
3. "Io Si" (The Life Ahead)
4. "Fight for You" (Judas and the Black Messiah)
5. "Hear My Voice" (Trial of the Chicago 7)

I'm kind of sick of the "message" songs that play over credits being so consistently nominated here. It happens year after year.  They're so boring. What happened to the good old days of "My Heart Will Go On" or "Let It Go" or any number of radio hits? I kind of love this category though for the ease with which you can screen all the nominees. Take 15 minutes and listen. What's stopping you? My favorite is the beautiful Italian ballad "Io Si" by always-a-nominee-never-a-winner Diane Warren. This is her 12th nomination. Could she take it? It won the Globe (but that doesn't mean a whole lot). Another part of me feels like the cheesy pop style of "Husavik" really sets that song apart and could drive a surprise win for a comedy film. "Speak Now" is actually lovely, somber, with Leslie Odom Jr's vocals melting right off the screen. Could it win, though? 4 & 5 are simply forgettable, enough said. 

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. Nomadland
2. Mank
3. Judas and the Black Messiah
4. News of the World
5. Trial of the Chicago 7

How was "Trial" even nominated here? This is an easy win for "Nomadland." This award almost always goes to the Best Picture nominee of the bunch, and it helps to have a Visual Effects nomination. Luckily, "Mank" missed that nom, though it did just surprise at the Cinematography Guild. Black and white is hard to resist, but Nomad feels very much like the lock here. 

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1. Tenet
2. The Midnight Sky
3. Mulan
4. The One and Only Ivan
5. Love and Monsters

What even are half these films? "Tenet" is the only movie that fits the bill in this category and it's the most widely seen. Many of its effects were actually quite impressive, too. How many Christopher Nolan movies have won this award, already? "Midnight Sky" has picked up a few precursors here and there so don't be surprised to see it win. 

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1. Soul
2. Wolfwalkers
3. Onward
4. Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon
5. Over the Moon

Piece of cake. 

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

1. Another Round
2. Quo Vadis, Aida?
3. The Man Who Sold His Skin
4. Collective
5. Better Days

The second consecutive year where a documentary was also nominated for International Feature (Collective). No matter, the Directing nomination for "Another Round" helps clarify this race immensely. Also - this is the third year in a row in which the winner here would have also been nominated for Best Director (and up until now, they all won that award, too...). I may switch to "Quo Vadis, Aida," a movie I think is the best I saw all year - it's powerful and emotional, and feels more important than a story of a few high school teachers getting drunk on a daily basis. We'll see. For now, it's "Another Round." 

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. My Octopus Teacher
2. Crip Camp
3. Time
4. The Mole Agent
5. Collective

What might have been up in the air has been largely settled with the surprising precursor sweep of "Octopus Teacher" (which I found somewhat dull... Besides the point). Oftentimes it's the odd film out that wins. A film about a sea creature certainly fits the bill. It also doesn't hurt to be so largely available on Netflix (a studio that has won in this category before, don't forget). 

BEST DOCUMENTARY, SHORT SUBJECT

1. A Concerto Is A Conversation
2. A Love Song for Latasha
3. Colette
4. Do Not Split
5. Hunger Ward

The old trend used to be to pick the Holocaust film among the shorts (Colette), but that fad has begun to fade. Our current trend? Pick the film with the most eye-catching title (Learning to Skateboard In A Warzone If You're a Girl, Period, End of Sentence, etc). Latasha features on Netflix but I don't know how good of a film it is overall. Pick Concerto. It has ties to recent Best Picture winner "Green Book" and it apparently a lovely story among a slab of nominees that are increasingly depressing. 

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

1. The Letter Room
2. Feeling Through
3. Two Distant Strangers
4. The Present
5. White Eye

I finally saw all 5 and I am sticking with the established front-runner. Aside from the actually terrible "Two Distant Strangers" (suffering tonal and taste problems galore), the other 4 are all fairly worthy nominees. Strangers still has a chance given the recent news (it's essentially a story about a black man getting shot and killed day after day a-la Groundhog's Day.... Yikes). The Letter Room was the most accomplished to me - starring Oscar Isaac. It isn't as dark as the others, and it balances romance, comedy, and the weight of its subject matter with ease. I am borderline on predicting Feeling Through - the most visually interesting film, and a story of a blind and deaf man being helped home by a homeless youth. It's uplifting if not a bit cheesy. To be honest, it feels right up the voters' alley and already feels like a winner. The Present and White Eye are foreign, and as shallow as it sounds, it's rare for a foreign film to win here when matched against those in the English language. 

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

1. If Anything Happens I Love You
2. Burrow
3. Opera
4. Genius Loci
5. Yes-People

The odds on favorite is "If Anything Happens," and now having seen all 5 this choice makes sense. My favorite is Opera - a wildly original 9-minute film that is quite frankly impossible to describe and utterly compelling. Genius Loci is beautifully-drawn but feels very messy and absurd. Burrow, the one with cute animals, might have a shot - but the animation and story is nothing to write home about. I loved Yes People, but again, it's foreign - and those have a hard time in the short category no matter which category. This is a fairly easy call. 

Favorite Movies (... of the Best Picture Nominees 2020)

 It was a weird year. I saw no more than 5 movies in theaters (the previous year I clocked in around 80). I don't think I saw enough actual release movies to make an actual list of my favorites (or least favorites) of the year. Here we are. 

The Oscars are rolling around in t-minus 1 month, and while the nominees leave much to be desired (and I think it's an incredibly weak year), here is my chance to vent about the 8 films nominated - my opinions, thoughts, etc, and perhaps we could potentially categorize this as a "best of" list in some aspect or another. 

The nominees (in order of preference, worst to best) are: 

8. THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7

One of the most boring, utterly forgettable Best Picture nominees I can remember in at least 10 years. It plays like a parody of an "Oscar bait" movie, and feels artificial and saccharine all the way down to the large ensemble cast and cringey one-liners. It's not Aaron Sorkin's best screenplay, but it might be his worst screenplay. I was bored within 15 minutes and nothing ever managed to grip me along the way. Virtually every nomination this film received was undeserved. 

7. MANK

I dare you to find someone who actually loved this movie. What might have been an intriguing peek behind the scenes of the making of CITIZEN KANE instead turned into a snoozefest with an uninspired Gary Oldman performance at its heart. From the abysmal sound mix (made to sound as though you are in the echo of a grand theater... straining) to the tedious, churning screenplay, I was left puzzled as to how so many utter legends in front and behind the camera could make such bland material. 

6. PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN

I thought I really liked this movie the first viewing, despite the incredibly challenging conclusion that left me feeling uneasy. A second viewing confirmed my suspicions - that this movie is merely a colorful pop of design with not a whole lot to its substance. Carey Mulligan is effective as a woman hell-bent on revenge, but the aspects of her plot (luring men in bars while pretending to be drunk) raise more questions than they do create tension. The soundtrack is memorable and Emerald Fennell's direction is certifiably her own (one of two female Best Director nominees this year... a first). Overall, I don't think I could stomach a third viewing. 

5. JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH

Dare I say that Daniel Kaluuya gives the year's best performance as a Black Panther leader in Chicago - a leader whose own life and work is spied on by an FBI plant (Lakeith Stanfield) with the ultimate aim of bringing down a revolution. This is certainly one of the most exciting films of the year, full of a richness in dialogue, razor sharp editing, and some of the best sequences of the year. This movie left me floored. I'm so pleased to see it with so many nominations.

4. THE FATHER

The last of the Best Picture nominees I saw, and in many ways the most challenging. A story of an old man succumbing to dementia and his daughter who struggles with the ramifications. Anthony Hopkins is giving bar-none the best performance of his life and easily the best performance of the year in any category. The film is so brilliant in the way it shows dementia from his point of view - that is to say that scenes begin and end with no warning, characters change, furniture moves, and everyone but Hopkins seems to be in on it. It's unnerving, at times magical, and ultimately an incredibly moving portrait of a mind slowly beginning to unwind. 

3. NOMADLAND

Chloe Zhao (the director, soon to be only the second woman to win Best Director) made one of my all-time favorite films a few years back called "The Rider." Here, she finds similar themes to explore in the American west, a modern western of unemployed and disparate people searching for meaning in a life that is anything but normal. Frances McDormand is so perfectly modulated as Fern, a woman whose husband has died and drives from odd job to odd job over the course of a year. The film is virtually plotless - the characters are sparse (and mostly non-actors). The ultimate story seems to be of a woman learning to let go and go on living her life. It's the best ending of the year of any movie I saw. 

2. SOUND OF METAL

Just brilliant, sublime, powerful filmmaking. The story of a heavy metal drummer (Riz Ahmed) who suddenly begins to lose his hearing, and the journey he takes on the road towards recovery (or so he thinks). First, he enters a rehab clinic run by a deaf veteran (Paul Raci in my favorite supporting performance of those nominated) who teaches him in the ways of ASL and learning to live without hearing. All the while, Ahmed seeks to return to normalcy with cochlear implants. The sound design is bar none the main highlight of the film. We see the world through his perspective. And the ending - an utterly devastating blend of tragedy and acceptance. I couldn't heap more praises on this movie if I tried. 

1. MINARI

The real gem of 2020 for me was MINARI, easily my favorite movie I saw all year. It's the story of a Korean family who emigrates to southern America in the 1980s. The father dreams of farming, of growing crops, of living the American dream... His wife is more skeptical. Their children are merely along for the ride. It's so perfectly packed with heartwarming moments, and scene after scene is a perfect realization of all that great cinema can be. If there's one movie that could represent 2020 and help ease all the suffering of the year, this must be it. No villains, no death, no heartbreak - I was left with nothing but warm feelings.