Tomorrow is the Screen Actor's Guild Awards, and along with tonight's Producer's Guild Awards (just announced as 'Argo') we will begin to see the voting trend for the upcoming Oscar ceremony. At this point in the 2010 race, it seemed to be all sewn up for 'The Social Network,' until 'The King's Speech' pulled off a surprise PGA win, followed by a SAG win, followed by a DGA (Director's Guild) shocker. These three awards tend to be the most accurate barometer for predicting Best Picture of the year. Of course, there could be a split between the three, and in a year as rich as this one, I would not be surprised in the least. Should 'Argo' win the Ensemble award to go with it's brand new PGA Award, we might have a new front runner in the Best Picture race...
Regardless, SAG is usually one of the strongest awards to keep an eye on. Actors make up a majority of the voting members in the Academy, and actors are the sole voters in the Screen Actor's guild. As such, whoever wins immediately becomes the frontrunner for the rest of the year. Remember last year when Jean Dujardin pulled off an SAG upset, beating favorite George Clooney? Oscar. Let's take a look at the nominees:
OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Sally Field - Lincoln
Anne Hathaway - Les Miserables
Helen Hunt - The Sessions
Nicole Kidman - The Paperboy
Maggie Smith - The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Looking at this list logically, Anne Hathaway is the only foreseeable winner. Her road to the Oscars thus far has been unblemished. Amy Adams and Jacki Weaver received Oscar nominations in place of Nicole Kidman and Maggie Smith, but that doesn't seem to really effect the race. Hathaway is leaps beyond her competition, and she should easily win. Who wouldn't love to see a crazy Sally Field speech, though?
Prediction: Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables)
Spoiler: Sally Field (Lincoln)
OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Alan Arkin - Argo
Javier Bardem - Skyfall
Robert De Niro - Silver Linings Playbook
Philip Seymour Hoffman - The Master
Tommy Lee Jones - Lincoln
Swap Christoph Waltz for Javier Bardem and you have our boring Oscar lineup. Most think Tommy Lee Jones is the front runner, but let's weigh the options. Alan Arkin won an ensemble award for 'Little Miss Sunshine' in 2006 and his performance is not a flashy piece of work. Bardem recently won for 'No Country For Old Men' and 'Skyfall' is far from his best role. Hoffman picks up his film's sole nomination for the night, and De Niro, the acting legend, has yet to receive a SAG award. I have a feeling we could see some love going De Niro's way, especially considering 'Lincoln' is Daniel Day-Lewis's picture.
Prediction: Robert De Niro (Silver Linings Playbook)
Spoiler: Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln)
OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Jessica Chastain - Zero Dark Thirty
Marion Cotillard - Rust and Bone
Jennifer Lawrence - Silver Linings Playbook
Helen Mirren - Hitchcock
Naomi Watts - The Impossible
This is undoubtedly a tough category to call. Eliminate Cotillard & Mirren (who were both dropped in favor of Quvenzhane Wallis and Emmanuelle Riva at the Oscars) and most likely Naomi Watts. This leaves Jessica Chastain and Jennifer Lawrence. Chastain won last year for the Best Ensemble in 'The Help,' but this year she is 'Zero Dark Thirty's' sole nomination. I think this could show less love for the film then critics would have led us to believe. She will have her time to win, we all know it. It feels right for Jennifer Lawrence, this time.
Prediction: Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook)
Spoiler: Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty)
OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Bradley Cooper - Silver Linings Playbook
Daniel Day-Lewis - Lincoln
John Hawkes - The Sessions
Hugh Jackman - Les Miserables
Denzel Washington - Flight
Thankfully Hawkes was dropped at the Oscars in favor of Joaquin Phoenix, who gave arguably the best performance of the year. Cooper's reward is his nomination. This leaves Day-Lewis, Jackman, and Washington. I don't think the love for Jackman is as strong as everyone is led to believe, though singing roles generally carry more clout with voters. Should Daniel Day-Lewis win, he will have a record 3 Best Actor wins under his belt. Denzel Washington has yet to win, and yes his film is nowhere near as substantial as 'Lincoln,' his role is no less challenging, and if voters are bored of the predictability of 'Lincoln' winning, he would be a richly surprising and deserving spoiler.
Prediction: Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln)
Spoiler: Denzel Washington (Flight)
OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A CAST IN A MOTION PICTURE
Argo
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Les Miserables
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Past winners have included 'The Help,' 'The King's Speech,' 'Inglourious Basterds,' 'Slumdog Millionaire,' 'No Country For Old Men,' 'Little Miss Sunshine,' 'Crash,' and 'Sideways.' In general, they seem to predict Best Picture a little less than half of the time. If everyone is right in predicting an 'Argo' Best Picture upset at the Oscars, it needs this win, otherwise, consider that idea a foolish dream. 'Lincoln' and 'Silver Linings Playbook' seem like the front runners, but this could all come down to simple math. The majority of Best Cast winners goes to the film with the most number of actors nominated. This year, the film with the biggest cast (according to SAG) was 'Argo' with 13 actors. Close second was 'Les Miserables' with 12. When in doubt - go with statistics.
Prediction: Argo
Spoiler: Les Miserables
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