The Eve of Oscar Nominations

At long last, we have come to the big day - Oscar nominations are just hours away. In one of the best years for movies that I can remember, many nominations are still very much in the air, and many categories seem way too good to narrow down to just 5 nominees. Based on Guild and critics picks so far, though, it seems like there are some safe predictions to be made.

Best picture, the category that can have anywhere from 5 to 10 nominees, seems assured to have 8-10 films lined up, depending on how much love they have. Lincoln, Life of Pi, Zero Dark Thirty, Les Miserables, Argo, and Silver Linings Playbook all seem like the 'locked' choices. Here is where options become more difficult. Little-seen films like Moonrise Kingdom and Beasts of the Southern Wild could have enough support needed to make the final cut. Based on SAG nominations, there could be more love for the Best Exotic Marigold Hotel that initially thought, and it would be one of those 'left field' nominees that seems to happen every year. The Master, once thought to be a front-runner, has dropped off the map in the past few weeks, but like Tree of Life from last year, it could spring back with a surprise nomination tomorrow morning.

Best Director seems to be tied up between 6 or 7 nominees. Steven Speilberg (Lincoln), Ang Lee (Life of Pi), Ben Affleck (Argo), and Kathryn Bigelow (Zero Dark Thirty) are all the safest bets, with the last slot somewhat of a toss up between Tom Hooper (Les Miserables) or David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook), and I have a hunch Hooper could get passed for Russell in light of his recent Directing win, somewhat controversially, for The King's Speech.

Best Actor will see Denzel Washington, Daniel Day-Lewis, Hugh Jackman, and most likely Bradley Cooper. Again, the last spot seems split between John Hawkes or Joaquin Phoenix, and with Phoenix taking the most risks in his performance, he seems like a better bet, even though Hawkes received the coveted SAG nomination.

In Best Actress, Jennifer Lawrence, Jessica Chastain, Naomi Watts all seem guaranteed of their nominations. Marion Cotillard should be a lock, but for some reason the Academy has had a problem nominating her again post-La Vie En Rose, but all signs point to her nomination. The same should be said for Quvenzhane Wallis, the fiery star of Beasts of the Southern Wild. However, her shockingly young age and lack of SAG support could force the Academy to take the lazy route and nominate Helen Mirren in a less than amazing performance in Hitchcock.

Supporting Actor has a strong veteran lineup, with Tommy Lee Jones, Robert De Niro, Philip Seymour Hoffman, and Alan Arkin all Oscar winners, all set to receive one more nomination. Leonardo DiCaprio and Christoph Waltz might cancel each other out, though Waltz seems like the more assured bet at this point, leaving Leo once again in search of his long-awaited Oscar. Javier Bardem also received SAG love, so perhaps he will be #5? For now, I would bet on DiCaprio just for the sake of argument, but any of the three could fit the bill.

Again in Supporting Actress, we have locks with Anne Hathaway, Sally Field, and Helen Hunt guaranteed nominations. Maggie Smith could get veteran support with Marigold Hotel, and Nicole Kidman could squeeze by with her Golden Globe and SAG nominations.

I expect Lincoln will come out on top with 11 or 12 nominations, followed by Les Miserables and Life of Pi. Who knows for sure, though?

BEST PICTURE
Lincoln
Life of Pi
Zero Dark Thirty
Argo
Silver Linings Playbook
Les Miserables
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Moonrise Kingdom
Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
The Master

BEST DIRECTOR
Kathryn Bigelow (Zero Dark Thirty)
Steven Speilberg (Lincoln)
Ang Lee (Life of Pi)
Ben Affleck (Argo)
David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook)

BEST ACTOR
Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln)
Hugh Jackman (Les Miserables)
Denzel Washington (Flight)
Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook)
Joaquin Phoenix (The Master)

BEST ACTRESS
Naomi Watts (The Impossible)
Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook)
Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty)
Quvenzhane Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild)
Marion Cotillard (Rust and Bone)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables)
Helen Hunt (The Sessions)
Sally Field (Lincoln)
Maggie Smith (Best Exotic Marigold Hotel)
Nicole Kidman (The Paperboy)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln)
Alan Arkin (Argo)
Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master)
Robert De Niro (Silver Linings Playbook)
Leonardo DiCaprio (Django Unchained)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Zero Dark Thirty
Django Unchained
The Master
Moonrise Kingdom
Flight

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Argo
Lincoln
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Silver Linings Playbook
Life of Pi

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Skyfall
Anna Karenina
Zero Dark Thirty

BEST ART DIRECTION
Anna Karenina
Lincoln
Cloud Atlas
Les Miserables
Django Unchained

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Lincoln
Les Miserables
Anna Karenina
Snow White and the Huntsman
Cloud Atlas

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Lincoln
Life of Pi
Skyfall
Cloud Atlas
Argo

BEST EDITING
Argo
Lincoln
Zero Dark Thirty
Skyfall
Life of Pi

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Life of Pi
The Hobbit
Skyfall
Cloud Atlas
The Avengers

BEST MAKEUP
Lincoln
Les Miserables
The Hobbit

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Brave
Frankenweenie
ParaNorman
The Painting
Wreck-It Ralph