So far this season we have seen one of the most thrilling and unpredictable races in quite a few years. Even with the PGA and SAG awards handed out, much is still left in the open, and I think right up until Oscar night there will be many categories that will simply be too close to safely call. Of course most of the tension comes from Ben Affleck's Best Director snub...
We all know to win Best Picture, you need Oscar nominations in Directing, Editing, Screenplay, as well as nominations from the SAG, PGA, and DGA guilds. Plain and simple. Any other year this would be a closed case for 'Argo' winning. It's picked up all the necessary precursors, and from what we can tell will most likely win the DGA Award this coming weekend as well. Why can't we just put 'Argo' and call it a day? Either way you look at it, the directing snub hurts, as does 'Argo's' lack of nominations (It's not even one of the top-3 most nominated films). Regardless, if a movie wins the PGA, SAG, Critic's Choice, Golden Globes, and shows up as Roger Ebert's favorite movie of the year (regardless of being an underdog (see 'Crash')) - that's as safe a bet as any. 'Lincoln' has yet to win any major Best Picture awards. As of now, it's barely clinging to life... I'd say even if Spielberg manages to win the Director's Guild, 'Argo' still has the advantage. 'Silver Linings Playbook,' though good with nominations, failed to receive a DGA nomination, which is essentially the kiss of death, and is anyone talking about 'Life of Pi' right now - good or bad?
Best Picture: Argo
Underdog: Lincoln
The acting races get pretty tricky. After SAG, some things have been made pretty apparent:
Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln. Case closed)
Underdog: Sorry, not happening....
Best Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables)
Underdog: *See Best Actor's Underdog prediction...
... while the other two races still have a bit of tension. Jennifer Lawrence beating Jessica Chastain at the SAG Awards was the final kick in the pants for 'Zero Dark Thirty.' So far this season, Kathryn Bigelow's film has ben criticized, attacked, and now largely snubbed at the Oscars. Chastain needed the SAG win to cling on to any chance of winning her first Oscar... She'll just have to continue waiting. Lawrence is far ahead in this race as of now, though speculation of Emmanuelle Riva sneaking ahead is not difficult to imagine. 'Amour' is faring strong in the Oscar race, and how poetic would it be for the oldest acting nominee to win her first Oscar... On her Birthday??? The Oscars love the French, and they love old people (see last year's The Artist and oldest acting winner Christopher Plummer for examples). Riva is now posing a real threat.
Best Actress: Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook)
Underdog: Emmanuelle Riva (Amour)
And Best Supporting Actor - finally a race too close to call, even after SAG, which Tommy Lee Jones managed to win. Consider that Christoph Waltz won the Golden Globe, and Philip Seymour Hoffman won the Critics Choice, no actor has emerged as a clear favorite. As all of the nominees are past winners, so there is no one actor that is necessarily 'due.' However, Robert De Niro still shows all the signs of a surprise win in the end. Out of all the nominees, his last Oscar win was the longest ago (32 years for 'Raging Bull'), he has a strong likability factor (both as an actor and in the film), and how poetic would it be if both Daniel Day-Lewis and Robert De Niro won their third Oscar on the same night? It's an extremely exclusive club (last joined by Meryl Streep last year, prior to that it was Jack Nicholson in 1997) and it would be greatly deserved. Plus, if Jennifer Lawrence manages to lose the Best Actress race, this is the perfect category to award 'Silver Linings Playbook' in some way. This is a race to keep an eye on.
Best Supporting Actor: Robert De Niro (Silver Linings Playbook)
Underdog: Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln)
Perhaps the most interesting race now is Best Director. With Affleck slated to win the DGA (we shall see, though), the question will be who will win the Oscar? Obviously Spielberg is the most logical choice. He has a tendency to win for war movies ('Schindler's List,' 'Saving Private Ryan'), and the most nominated film needs to walk away with something. Ang Lee would be the only other option. Creating the most technically-awesome film of the year, 'Life of Pi' would be a richly deserving winner. Perhaps the BAFTA's will help shed light on this race (assuming the DGA goes 'Argo' crazy). As for now, this is the really exciting race of 2012.
Best Director: Steven Spielberg (Lincoln)
Underdog: Ang Lee (Life of Pi)
Once more guild awards are announced, the technical categories will become more apparent. The question has been asked 'what other Oscars can Argo win?' A Best Picture winner always wins at least 3 Oscars, and I believe that will be the case. So far, Editing, Score, and Screenplay are the closest races to watch, and don't be surprised to see 'Argo' sneak up and steal awards right out from under 'Lincoln.' After all, the Oscars don't award the best, per se, they award the film with the best publicity, ads, and buzz. Right now, 'Argo' has nothing to lose.....
No comments:
Post a Comment