Now that we have our nominees, this year had become one of the biggest head scratchers in recent memory. Many guaranteed frontrunners have been snubbed, little-seen films have emerged from no where to become potential threats, and there is no part in the fog as to who our eventual winners will be. Category by category, Lincoln, Life of Pi, and Silver Linings Playbook made the strongest showings with the most nominations. One of these three films is almost our guaranteed Best Picture winner, as they received the coveted nominations in Best Picture, Best Director, Best Editing, and Best Screenplay - a group a Best Picture winner almost needs to receive at this point.
Films like Argo and Zero Dark Thirty also received Screenplay and Editing nominations, but they were the two major snubs of the full list, with Kathryn Bigelow and Ben Affleck being omitted from Best Director in favor of two smaller known films (Amour, Beasts of the Southern Wild). Even more curious is the recent surge in popularity for Argo, winning Best Picture and Director at both the Golden Globes and Critics Choice. Usually these awards help cement a front-runner. As of now, they only stir the pot of potential. With luck, the DGA (Director's Guild), PGA (Producer's Guild), and SAG (Screen Actor's Guild) will reveal a favorite come February 24th. If not, this will be a truly suspenseful awards season.
BEST PICTURE
Amour
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Django Unchained
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty
Nine nominees, with the surprise Foreign inclusion of Amour. At this point, it is always a safe bet to go with the film that received the most nominations, and with 12, Lincoln is the safe bet for now. Watch out for Life of Pi, though, with an impressive 11 nominations in almost all categories, including Screenplay, editing, and technical awards. (Though it failed to receive any acting nominations, which can occasionally be a bad sign, especially considering Silver Linings Playbook was nominated in every acting category possible)
Prediction: Lincoln
Alternate: Life of Pi
BEST DIRECTOR
Michael Haneke - Amour
Ang Lee - Life of Pi
David O. Russell - Silver Linings Playbook
Steven Spielberg - Lincoln
Ben Zeitlin - Beasts of the Southern Wild
If this were any other year, Ben Affleck would most likely be the predicted front-runner, but in his absence, the safest bet is to pick the Best Picture winner. I think it is an extremely close race between Spielberg, Russell, and Lee at this point. Russell could get the actor's vote, or Lee could get through on the technical brilliance of his film.
Prediction: Steven Spielberg - Lincoln
Alternate: David O. Russell - Silver Linings Playbook
BEST ACTOR
Bradley Cooper - Silver Linings Playbook
Daniel Day-Lewis - Lincoln
Hugh Jackman - Les Miserables
Joaquin Phoenix - The Master
Denzel Washington - Flight
Though Hugh Jackman won a Golden Globe, there aren't any nominees at this point that seem to poise a threat to Daniel Day-Lewis's record third Best Actor Oscar...
Prediction: Daniel Day-Lewis - Lincoln
Alternate: Hugh Jackman - Les Miserables
BEST ACTRESS
Jessica Chastain - Zero Dark Thirty
Jennifer Lawrence - Silver Linings Playbook
Emmanuelle Riva - Amour
Quvenzhane Wallis - Beasts of the Southern Wild
Naomi Watts - The Impossible
With the surprise inclusions of the record oldest AND youngest nominees in this category (Riva & Wallis, respectively), this is still a two-horse race between Chastain & Lawrence. Perhaps Chastain was a front-runner before, but with Zero Dark Thirty's poor showing in total nominations (5) compared to Silver Lining's 8, as well as Jennifer Lawrence's impressive box office pull with The Hunger Games, she could be our winner.
Prediction: Jennifer Lawrence - Silver Linings Playbook
Alternate: Jessica Chastain - Zero Dark Thirty
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Alan Arkin - Argo
Robert De Niro - Silver Linings Playbook
Philip Seymour Hoffman - The Master
Tommy Lee Jones - Lincoln
Christoph Waltz - Django Unchained
All past Oscar winners, this is the most interesting acting race by far. Aside from Waltz who failed to receive an SAG nomination, and Arkin, who didn't have the showiest performance, this race is up in the air. The SAG Awards should lend a little light on this race.
Prediction: Robert De Niro - Silver Linings Playbook
Alternate: Tommy Lee Jones - Lincoln
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams - The Master
Sally Field - Lincoln
Anne Hathaway - Les Miserables
Helen Hunt - The Sessions
Jacki Weaver - Silver Linings Playbook
Other than Jacki Weaver's complete out-of-the-blue nomination, most of the usual suspects are nominated, with Anne Hathaway almost locked to win her first Oscar. Amy Adams, on her 4th Supporting nomination, might have to wait til lucky number 5...
Prediction: Anne Hathaway - Les Miserables
Alternate: Sally Field - Lincoln
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Amour
Django Unchained
Flight
Moonrise Kingdom
Zero Dark Thirty
Had Zero Dark Thirty's Mark Boal not just won an Oscar for The Hurt Locker he would be seen as a bigger threat. Perhaps there is more love for Amour than we thought? It's the only film in the category that has a Best Director nomination (who is also the screenwriter).
Prediction: Amour
Alternate: Django Unchained
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
This seems like Lincoln's to lose. I do think that this category could be a strong barometer for the eventual Best Picture winner. This is a one to keep an eye on.
Prediction: Lincoln
Alternate: Life of Pi
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Brave
Frankenweenie
ParaNorman
The Pirates! Band of Misfits
Wreck-It Ralph
I don't see Brave winning, especially considering Tim Burton has yet to win an Oscar. This seems like the perfect way for the Academy to finally honor him in some way.
Prediction: Frankenweenie
Alternate: Wreck-It Ralph
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Amour
War Witch
No
A Royal Affair
Kon-Tiki
There is only one Best Picture/Best Director nominee in this list. This could be another Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon.
Prediction: Amour
Alternate: No
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Anna Karenina
Django Unchained
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Skyfall
Being a Best Picture nominee really helps. So does a film riddled with visual effects and state-of-the-art 3D.
Prediction: Life of Pi
Alternate: Skyfall
BEST EDITING
Argo
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty
This might be the category where the Academy can honor the snubs of Argo/Zero Dark Thirty. Both are fast-paced films with the noticeable choppy editing that the Oscars usually recognize. They are also the only 'action' films on the list.
Prediction: Argo
Alternate: Zero Dark Thirty
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Anna Karenina
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Here is a category that should help shed light on the Academy's love of Life of Pi - a movie set largely on a life raft being nominated for set design...
Prediction: Les Miserables
Alternate: Anna Karenina
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Anna Karenina
Les Miserables
Lincoln
Mirror Mirror
Snow White and the Huntsman
Interesting to see the two Snow White films nominated (Mirror Mirror being a posthumous nomination) - Anna Karenina looks like it has everything it takes to win: historical aspect, billowing dresses, bright colors, endless costume changes.
Prediction: Anna Karenina
Alternate: Lincoln
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
Hitchcock
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Les Miserables
Prediction: The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Alternate: Les Miserables
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Anna Karenina
Argo
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Skyfall
Prediction: Life of Pi
Alternate: Argo
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Chasing Ice - Before My Time
Les Miserables - Suddenly
Life of Pi - Pi's Lullaby
Skyfall - Skyfall
Ted - Everybody Needs A Best Friend
Prediction: Skyfall
Alternate: Life of Pi
BEST SOUND MIXING
Argo
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Skyfall
Prediction: Les Miserables
Alternate: Life of Pi
BEST SOUND EDITING
Argo
Django Unchained
Life of Pi
Skyfall
Zero Dark Thirty
Prediction: Argo
Alternate: Skyfall
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
The Avengers
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Life of Pi
Prometheus
Snow White and the Huntsman
Prediction: Life of Pi
Alternate: *no forseeable alternate*
BEST DOCUMENTARY
5 Broken Cameras
The Gatekeepers
How to Survive a Plague
The Invisible War
Searching For Sugarman
Prediction: The Gatekeepers
Alternate: Searching for Sugarman
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