Weighing in on the Oscar race....

So far this season we have seen one of the most thrilling and unpredictable races in quite a few years. Even with the PGA and SAG awards handed out, much is still left in the open, and I think right up until Oscar night there will be many categories that will simply be too close to safely call. Of course most of the tension comes from Ben Affleck's Best Director snub...

We all know to win Best Picture, you need Oscar nominations in Directing, Editing, Screenplay, as well as nominations from the SAG, PGA, and DGA guilds. Plain and simple. Any other year this would be a closed case for 'Argo' winning. It's picked up all the necessary precursors, and from what we can tell will most likely win the DGA Award this coming weekend as well. Why can't we just put 'Argo' and call it a day? Either way you look at it, the directing snub hurts, as does 'Argo's' lack of nominations (It's not even one of the top-3 most nominated films). Regardless, if a movie wins the PGA, SAG, Critic's Choice, Golden Globes, and shows up as Roger Ebert's favorite movie of the year (regardless of being an underdog (see 'Crash')) - that's as safe a bet as any. 'Lincoln' has yet to win any major Best Picture awards. As of now, it's barely clinging to life... I'd say even if Spielberg manages to win the Director's Guild, 'Argo' still has the advantage. 'Silver Linings Playbook,' though good with nominations, failed to receive a DGA nomination, which is essentially the kiss of death, and is anyone talking about 'Life of Pi' right now - good or bad?

Best Picture: Argo
        Underdog: Lincoln

The acting races get pretty tricky. After SAG, some things have been made pretty apparent:

Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln. Case closed)
        Underdog: Sorry, not happening....

Best Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables)
        Underdog: *See Best Actor's Underdog prediction...

... while the other two races still have a bit of tension. Jennifer Lawrence beating Jessica Chastain at the SAG Awards was the final kick in the pants for 'Zero Dark Thirty.' So far this season, Kathryn Bigelow's film has ben criticized, attacked, and now largely snubbed at the Oscars. Chastain needed the SAG win to cling on to any chance of winning her first Oscar... She'll just have to continue waiting. Lawrence is far ahead in this race as of now, though speculation of Emmanuelle Riva sneaking ahead is not difficult to imagine. 'Amour' is faring strong in the Oscar race, and how poetic would it be for the oldest acting nominee to win her first Oscar... On her Birthday??? The Oscars love the French, and they love old people (see last year's The Artist and oldest acting winner Christopher Plummer for examples). Riva is now posing a real threat.

Best Actress: Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook)
        Underdog: Emmanuelle Riva (Amour)

And Best Supporting Actor - finally a race too close to call, even after SAG, which Tommy Lee Jones managed to win. Consider that Christoph Waltz won the Golden Globe, and Philip Seymour Hoffman won the Critics Choice, no actor has emerged as a clear favorite. As all of the nominees are past winners, so there is no one actor that is necessarily 'due.' However, Robert De Niro still shows all the signs of a surprise win in the end. Out of all the nominees, his last Oscar win was the longest ago (32 years for 'Raging Bull'), he has a strong likability factor (both as an actor and in the film), and how poetic would it be if both Daniel Day-Lewis and Robert De Niro won their third Oscar on the same night? It's an extremely exclusive club (last joined by Meryl Streep last year, prior to that it was Jack Nicholson in 1997) and it would be greatly deserved. Plus, if Jennifer Lawrence manages to lose the Best Actress race, this is the perfect category to award 'Silver Linings Playbook' in some way. This is a race to keep an eye on.

Best Supporting Actor: Robert De Niro (Silver Linings Playbook)
        Underdog: Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln)

Perhaps the most interesting race now is Best Director. With Affleck slated to win the DGA (we shall see, though), the question will be who will win the Oscar? Obviously Spielberg is the most logical choice. He has a tendency to win for war movies ('Schindler's List,' 'Saving Private Ryan'), and the most nominated film needs to walk away with something. Ang Lee would be the only other option. Creating the most technically-awesome film of the year, 'Life of Pi' would be a richly deserving winner.  Perhaps the BAFTA's will help shed light on this race (assuming the DGA goes 'Argo' crazy). As for now, this is the really exciting race of 2012.

Best Director: Steven Spielberg (Lincoln)
        Underdog: Ang Lee (Life of Pi)

Once more guild awards are announced, the technical categories will become more apparent. The question has been asked 'what other Oscars can Argo win?' A Best Picture winner always wins at least 3 Oscars, and I believe that will be the case. So far, Editing, Score, and Screenplay are the closest races to watch, and don't be surprised to see 'Argo' sneak up and steal awards right out from under 'Lincoln.' After all, the Oscars don't award the best, per se, they award the film with the best publicity, ads, and buzz. Right now, 'Argo' has nothing to lose.....

SAG Predictions

Tomorrow is the Screen Actor's Guild Awards, and along with tonight's Producer's Guild Awards (just announced as 'Argo') we will begin to see the voting trend for the upcoming Oscar ceremony. At this point in the 2010 race, it seemed to be all sewn up for 'The Social Network,' until 'The King's Speech' pulled off a surprise PGA win, followed by a SAG win, followed by a DGA (Director's Guild) shocker. These three awards tend to be the most accurate barometer for predicting Best Picture of the year. Of course, there could be a split between the three, and in a year as rich as this one, I would not be surprised in the least. Should 'Argo' win the Ensemble award to go with it's brand new PGA Award,  we might have a new front runner in the Best Picture race...

Regardless, SAG is usually one of the strongest awards to keep an eye on. Actors make up a majority of the voting members in the Academy, and actors are the sole voters in the Screen Actor's guild. As such, whoever wins immediately becomes the frontrunner for the rest of the year. Remember last year when Jean Dujardin pulled off an SAG upset, beating favorite George Clooney? Oscar. Let's take a look at the nominees:


OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Sally Field - Lincoln
Anne Hathaway - Les Miserables
Helen Hunt - The Sessions
Nicole Kidman - The Paperboy
Maggie Smith - The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

Looking at this list logically, Anne Hathaway is the only foreseeable winner. Her road to the Oscars thus far has been unblemished. Amy Adams and Jacki Weaver received Oscar nominations in place of Nicole Kidman and Maggie Smith, but that doesn't seem to really effect the race. Hathaway is leaps beyond her competition, and she should easily win. Who wouldn't love to see a crazy Sally Field speech, though?

Prediction: Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables)
Spoiler: Sally Field (Lincoln)


OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Alan Arkin - Argo
Javier Bardem - Skyfall
Robert De Niro - Silver Linings Playbook
Philip Seymour Hoffman - The Master
Tommy Lee Jones - Lincoln

Swap Christoph Waltz for Javier Bardem and you have our boring Oscar lineup. Most think Tommy Lee Jones is the front runner, but let's weigh the options. Alan Arkin won an ensemble award for 'Little Miss Sunshine' in 2006 and his performance is not a flashy piece of work. Bardem recently won for 'No Country For Old Men' and 'Skyfall' is far from his best role. Hoffman picks up his film's sole nomination for the night, and De Niro, the acting legend, has yet to receive a SAG award. I have a feeling we could see some love going De Niro's way, especially considering 'Lincoln' is Daniel Day-Lewis's picture.

Prediction: Robert De Niro (Silver Linings Playbook)
Spoiler: Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln)


OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Jessica Chastain - Zero Dark Thirty
Marion Cotillard - Rust and Bone
Jennifer Lawrence - Silver Linings Playbook
Helen Mirren - Hitchcock
Naomi Watts - The Impossible

This is undoubtedly a tough category to call. Eliminate Cotillard & Mirren (who were both dropped in favor of Quvenzhane Wallis and Emmanuelle Riva at the Oscars) and most likely Naomi Watts. This leaves Jessica Chastain and Jennifer Lawrence. Chastain won last year for the Best Ensemble in 'The Help,' but this year she is 'Zero Dark Thirty's' sole nomination. I think this could show less love for the film then critics would have led us to believe. She will have her time to win, we all know it. It feels right for Jennifer Lawrence, this time.

Prediction: Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook)
Spoiler: Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty)


OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Bradley Cooper - Silver Linings Playbook
Daniel Day-Lewis - Lincoln
John Hawkes - The Sessions
Hugh Jackman - Les Miserables
Denzel Washington - Flight

Thankfully Hawkes was dropped at the Oscars in favor of Joaquin Phoenix, who gave arguably the best performance of the year. Cooper's reward is his nomination. This leaves Day-Lewis, Jackman, and Washington. I don't think the love for Jackman is as strong as everyone is led to believe, though singing roles generally carry more clout with voters. Should Daniel Day-Lewis win, he will have a record 3 Best Actor wins under his belt. Denzel Washington has yet to win, and yes his film is nowhere near as substantial as 'Lincoln,' his role is no less challenging, and if voters are bored of the predictability of 'Lincoln' winning, he would be a richly surprising and deserving spoiler.

Prediction: Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln)
Spoiler: Denzel Washington (Flight)


OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A CAST IN A MOTION PICTURE
Argo
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Les Miserables
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook 

Past winners have included 'The Help,' 'The King's Speech,' 'Inglourious Basterds,' 'Slumdog Millionaire,' 'No Country For Old Men,' 'Little Miss Sunshine,' 'Crash,' and 'Sideways.' In general, they seem to predict Best Picture a little less than half of the time. If everyone is right in predicting an 'Argo' Best Picture upset at the Oscars, it needs this win, otherwise, consider that idea a foolish dream. 'Lincoln' and 'Silver Linings Playbook' seem like the front runners, but this could all come down to simple math. The majority of Best Cast winners goes to the film with the most number of actors nominated. This year, the film with the biggest cast (according to SAG) was 'Argo' with 13 actors. Close second was 'Les Miserables' with 12. When in doubt - go with statistics.

Prediction: Argo
Spoiler: Les Miserables

Amour (Jo*****)

Michael Haneke is no doubt a quiet filmmaker, one who revels in moments of silence, of characters in the simple acts of life. Amour, the film that turned heads when it appeared in most major categories when the Oscar nominations were announced, is no doubt the smallest film of the nominees. Set almost entirely in an apartment and dealing with one couple the entire film, this is masterful storytelling.

With a dramatic opening showing police breaking into the empty apartment and discovering the wife's deceased body surrounded by flowers, the film then backtracks to establish our characters: Georges and Anne. One day while eating breakfast, Anne simply freezes - unresponsive to her husband's calls. A stroke. There is nothing overly dramatic about the moment. From that point on, we watch the painfully slow digression of Anne and Georges's diligent care and protection of her.

The film does not serve a plot. This is a movie about life and the people we know. So often we hear about the elderly succumbing to sickness and death - how often do we wonder what these people used to be? Anne receives a visit from a pupil of hers, now a famous concert pianist. He asks about her apparent illness, and Anne quickly orders a change of subject. Georges, late in the film, sits in solitude listening to a piano recording and recalls a memory of her sitting at their piano, deep in focus.

Haneke has a true sense of filmmaking and each of his scenes are gems in and of themselves. His cast is no less impressive, with Jean-Louis Trintignant so brilliantly carrying the film alongside Emmanuelle Riva, now the oldest Oscar nominee for acting since the Oscar's inception. The eerie realness with which she captures a woman trapped in a stroke victim's body is uncanny, and the amount of emotion she can convey just with her eyes is shocking.

Of course this film will find its audience, and that is not everyone. At over two hours, this is a film that requires patience, and respect. This could have easily been an overlooked film, but thanks to the deserved Oscar nominations perhaps a wider audience will come to see this film. Heartbreaking and honest, Amour left an indelible mark on me.

(Awards potential: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor (Trintignant), Best Actress (Riva), Best Original Screenplay, Best Cinematography, Best Foreign Language Film)

Jo's Favorite Movies of 2012

11. The Impossible
10. Flight
9. Skyfall
8. Amour
7. Lincoln
6. Argo
5. The Master
4. Beasts of the Southern Wild
3. Silver Linings Playbook
2. Zero Dark Thirty
1. Life of Pi

Zero Dark Thirty (*****)

Kathryn Bigelow is quickly cementing herself as the premiere filmmaker of the day. Following her Oscar triumph for 'The Hurt Locker,' 'Zero Dark Thirty' nearly blows it out of the water. A film of sophistication, intelligence, and craft, the epic manhunt for Osama Bin Laden is gloriously brought to life without a flaw to be found.

Following the nearly decade-long manhunt following September 11th, the film brutally treks the hunt not just for Bin Laden, but his associates and counterparts. Hiding throughout all corners of the Middle East, we are given a clear understanding of the means by which some would go to capture the ultimate target. Opening on the torture of one such terrorist, we see waterboarding, humiliation, starvation - all at the hands of CIA and military persons. It's not pretty, and it sets the tone for the rest of the story.

One such CIA operative is simply known as Maya, played by Jessica Chastain. We learn she was recruited right out of high school. She's been hunting Bin Laden for 12 years. She has no boyfriend, she has no friends. This mission is her life. Another director might have played into the female element when depicting such a character. Not Bigelow - Maya is strong-willed and trumps all her counterparts. She is one of the most sharply-written and heroic female characters I can remember in quite some time, and Chastain is the perfect actor to fill her shoes.

What you might remember from news stories is perhaps true, perhaps not - perhaps the film embellishes certain aspects of the story. Who's to say for sure. As a film itself, 'Zero Dark Thirty' speeds by with such a clear goal that the audience barely has time to catch a breath (despite its nearly 3 hour length).

What else can be surmised in a brief review for such a monumental film? The interest comes not in the actual raid (depicted in a tense 30 minute finale to the film) but in the slow buildup, false leads, acts of terrorism, all with Maya at the heart. The Oscars truly did some injustices towards this film - Kathryn Bigelow's absence from the Best Director nominees is sinful, as is the omission of a truly great Original Score. Regardless, this is a film that will perhaps come to define the post-9/11 mindset of our country and serve as a reminder of the great year for film 2012 was.

(Awards potential: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actress (Chastain), Best Original Screenplay, Best Editing, Best Cinematography, Best Original Score, Best Sound Mixing, Best Sound Editing)

Weighing In On the Oscar Nominations

Now that we have our nominees, this year had become one of the biggest head scratchers in recent memory. Many guaranteed frontrunners have been snubbed, little-seen films have emerged from no where to become potential threats, and there is no part in the fog as to who our eventual winners will be. Category by category, Lincoln, Life of Pi, and Silver Linings Playbook made the strongest showings with the most nominations.  One of these three films is almost our guaranteed Best Picture winner, as they received the coveted nominations in Best Picture, Best Director, Best Editing, and Best Screenplay - a group a Best Picture winner almost needs to receive at this point.

Films like Argo and Zero Dark Thirty also received Screenplay and Editing nominations, but they were the two major snubs of the full list, with Kathryn Bigelow and Ben Affleck being omitted from Best Director in favor of two smaller known films (Amour, Beasts of the Southern Wild). Even more curious is the recent surge in popularity for Argo, winning Best Picture and Director at both the Golden Globes and Critics Choice. Usually these awards help cement a front-runner. As of now, they only stir the pot of potential. With luck, the DGA (Director's Guild), PGA (Producer's Guild), and SAG (Screen Actor's Guild) will reveal a favorite come February 24th. If not, this will be a truly suspenseful awards season.


BEST PICTURE
Amour
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Django Unchained
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty

Nine nominees, with the surprise Foreign inclusion of Amour. At this point, it is always a safe bet to go with the film that received the most nominations, and with 12, Lincoln is the safe bet for now. Watch out for Life of Pi, though, with an impressive 11 nominations in almost all categories, including Screenplay, editing, and technical awards. (Though it failed to receive any acting nominations, which can occasionally be a bad sign, especially considering Silver Linings Playbook was nominated in every acting category possible)

Prediction: Lincoln
Alternate: Life of Pi


BEST DIRECTOR
Michael Haneke - Amour
Ang Lee - Life of Pi
David O. Russell - Silver Linings Playbook
Steven Spielberg - Lincoln
Ben Zeitlin - Beasts of the Southern Wild

If this were any other year, Ben Affleck would most likely be the predicted front-runner, but in his absence, the safest bet is to pick the Best Picture winner. I think it is an extremely close race between Spielberg, Russell, and Lee at this point. Russell could get the actor's vote, or Lee could get through on the technical brilliance of his film.

Prediction: Steven Spielberg - Lincoln
Alternate: David O. Russell - Silver Linings Playbook


BEST ACTOR
Bradley Cooper - Silver Linings Playbook
Daniel Day-Lewis - Lincoln
Hugh Jackman - Les Miserables
Joaquin Phoenix - The Master
Denzel Washington - Flight

Though Hugh Jackman won a Golden Globe, there aren't any nominees at this point that seem to poise a threat to Daniel Day-Lewis's record third Best Actor Oscar...

Prediction: Daniel Day-Lewis - Lincoln
Alternate: Hugh Jackman - Les Miserables


BEST ACTRESS
Jessica Chastain - Zero Dark Thirty
Jennifer Lawrence - Silver Linings Playbook
Emmanuelle Riva - Amour
Quvenzhane Wallis - Beasts of the Southern Wild
Naomi Watts - The Impossible

With the surprise inclusions of the record oldest AND youngest nominees in this category (Riva & Wallis, respectively), this is still a two-horse race between Chastain & Lawrence. Perhaps Chastain was a front-runner before, but with Zero Dark Thirty's poor showing in total nominations (5) compared to Silver Lining's 8, as well as Jennifer Lawrence's impressive box office pull with The Hunger Games, she could be our winner.

Prediction: Jennifer Lawrence - Silver Linings Playbook
Alternate: Jessica Chastain - Zero Dark Thirty


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Alan Arkin - Argo
Robert De Niro - Silver Linings Playbook
Philip Seymour Hoffman - The Master
Tommy Lee Jones - Lincoln
Christoph Waltz - Django Unchained

All past Oscar winners, this is the most interesting acting race by far. Aside from Waltz who failed to receive an SAG nomination, and Arkin, who didn't have the showiest performance, this race is up in the air. The SAG Awards should lend a little light on this race.

Prediction: Robert De Niro - Silver Linings Playbook
Alternate: Tommy Lee Jones - Lincoln


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams - The Master
Sally Field - Lincoln
Anne Hathaway - Les Miserables
Helen Hunt - The Sessions
Jacki Weaver - Silver Linings Playbook

Other than Jacki Weaver's complete out-of-the-blue nomination, most of the usual suspects are nominated, with Anne Hathaway almost locked to win her first Oscar. Amy Adams, on her 4th Supporting nomination, might have to wait til lucky number 5...

Prediction: Anne Hathaway - Les Miserables
Alternate: Sally Field - Lincoln


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Amour
Django Unchained
Flight
Moonrise Kingdom
Zero Dark Thirty

Had Zero Dark Thirty's Mark Boal not just won an Oscar for The Hurt Locker he would be seen as a bigger threat. Perhaps there is more love for Amour than we thought? It's the only film in the category that has a Best Director nomination (who is also the screenwriter).

Prediction: Amour
Alternate: Django Unchained


BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook

This seems like Lincoln's to lose. I do think that this category could be a strong barometer for the eventual Best Picture winner. This is a one to keep an eye on.

Prediction: Lincoln
Alternate: Life of Pi


BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Brave
Frankenweenie
ParaNorman
The Pirates! Band of Misfits
Wreck-It Ralph

I don't see Brave winning, especially considering Tim Burton has yet to win an Oscar. This seems like the perfect way for the Academy to finally honor him in some way.

Prediction: Frankenweenie
Alternate: Wreck-It Ralph


BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Amour
War Witch
No
A Royal Affair
Kon-Tiki

There is only one Best Picture/Best Director nominee in this list. This could be another Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon. 

Prediction: Amour
Alternate: No


BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Anna Karenina
Django Unchained
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Skyfall

Being a Best Picture nominee really helps. So does a film riddled with visual effects and state-of-the-art 3D.

Prediction: Life of Pi
Alternate: Skyfall


BEST EDITING
Argo
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty

This might be the category where the Academy can honor the snubs of Argo/Zero Dark Thirty. Both are fast-paced films with the noticeable choppy editing that the Oscars usually recognize. They are also the only 'action' films on the list.

Prediction: Argo
Alternate: Zero Dark Thirty


BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Anna Karenina
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Lincoln

Here is a category that should help shed light on the Academy's love of Life of Pi - a movie set largely on a life raft being nominated for set design...

Prediction: Les Miserables
Alternate: Anna Karenina


BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Anna Karenina
Les Miserables
Lincoln
Mirror Mirror
Snow White and the Huntsman

Interesting to see the two Snow White films nominated (Mirror Mirror being a posthumous nomination) - Anna Karenina looks like it has everything it takes to win: historical aspect, billowing dresses, bright colors, endless costume changes.

Prediction: Anna Karenina
Alternate: Lincoln


BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
Hitchcock
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Les Miserables

Prediction: The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Alternate: Les Miserables


BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Anna Karenina
Argo
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Skyfall

Prediction: Life of Pi
Alternate: Argo


BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Chasing Ice - Before My Time
Les Miserables - Suddenly
Life of Pi - Pi's Lullaby
Skyfall - Skyfall
Ted - Everybody Needs A Best Friend

Prediction: Skyfall
Alternate: Life of Pi


BEST SOUND MIXING
Argo
Les Miserables 
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Skyfall

Prediction: Les Miserables
Alternate: Life of Pi


BEST SOUND EDITING
Argo
Django Unchained
Life of Pi
Skyfall
Zero Dark Thirty

Prediction: Argo
Alternate: Skyfall


BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
The Avengers
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Life of Pi
Prometheus
Snow White and the Huntsman

Prediction: Life of Pi
Alternate: *no forseeable alternate*


BEST DOCUMENTARY
5 Broken Cameras
The Gatekeepers
How to Survive a Plague
The Invisible War
Searching For Sugarman

Prediction: The Gatekeepers 
Alternate: Searching for Sugarman

The Eve of Oscar Nominations

At long last, we have come to the big day - Oscar nominations are just hours away. In one of the best years for movies that I can remember, many nominations are still very much in the air, and many categories seem way too good to narrow down to just 5 nominees. Based on Guild and critics picks so far, though, it seems like there are some safe predictions to be made.

Best picture, the category that can have anywhere from 5 to 10 nominees, seems assured to have 8-10 films lined up, depending on how much love they have. Lincoln, Life of Pi, Zero Dark Thirty, Les Miserables, Argo, and Silver Linings Playbook all seem like the 'locked' choices. Here is where options become more difficult. Little-seen films like Moonrise Kingdom and Beasts of the Southern Wild could have enough support needed to make the final cut. Based on SAG nominations, there could be more love for the Best Exotic Marigold Hotel that initially thought, and it would be one of those 'left field' nominees that seems to happen every year. The Master, once thought to be a front-runner, has dropped off the map in the past few weeks, but like Tree of Life from last year, it could spring back with a surprise nomination tomorrow morning.

Best Director seems to be tied up between 6 or 7 nominees. Steven Speilberg (Lincoln), Ang Lee (Life of Pi), Ben Affleck (Argo), and Kathryn Bigelow (Zero Dark Thirty) are all the safest bets, with the last slot somewhat of a toss up between Tom Hooper (Les Miserables) or David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook), and I have a hunch Hooper could get passed for Russell in light of his recent Directing win, somewhat controversially, for The King's Speech.

Best Actor will see Denzel Washington, Daniel Day-Lewis, Hugh Jackman, and most likely Bradley Cooper. Again, the last spot seems split between John Hawkes or Joaquin Phoenix, and with Phoenix taking the most risks in his performance, he seems like a better bet, even though Hawkes received the coveted SAG nomination.

In Best Actress, Jennifer Lawrence, Jessica Chastain, Naomi Watts all seem guaranteed of their nominations. Marion Cotillard should be a lock, but for some reason the Academy has had a problem nominating her again post-La Vie En Rose, but all signs point to her nomination. The same should be said for Quvenzhane Wallis, the fiery star of Beasts of the Southern Wild. However, her shockingly young age and lack of SAG support could force the Academy to take the lazy route and nominate Helen Mirren in a less than amazing performance in Hitchcock.

Supporting Actor has a strong veteran lineup, with Tommy Lee Jones, Robert De Niro, Philip Seymour Hoffman, and Alan Arkin all Oscar winners, all set to receive one more nomination. Leonardo DiCaprio and Christoph Waltz might cancel each other out, though Waltz seems like the more assured bet at this point, leaving Leo once again in search of his long-awaited Oscar. Javier Bardem also received SAG love, so perhaps he will be #5? For now, I would bet on DiCaprio just for the sake of argument, but any of the three could fit the bill.

Again in Supporting Actress, we have locks with Anne Hathaway, Sally Field, and Helen Hunt guaranteed nominations. Maggie Smith could get veteran support with Marigold Hotel, and Nicole Kidman could squeeze by with her Golden Globe and SAG nominations.

I expect Lincoln will come out on top with 11 or 12 nominations, followed by Les Miserables and Life of Pi. Who knows for sure, though?

BEST PICTURE
Lincoln
Life of Pi
Zero Dark Thirty
Argo
Silver Linings Playbook
Les Miserables
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Moonrise Kingdom
Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
The Master

BEST DIRECTOR
Kathryn Bigelow (Zero Dark Thirty)
Steven Speilberg (Lincoln)
Ang Lee (Life of Pi)
Ben Affleck (Argo)
David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook)

BEST ACTOR
Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln)
Hugh Jackman (Les Miserables)
Denzel Washington (Flight)
Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook)
Joaquin Phoenix (The Master)

BEST ACTRESS
Naomi Watts (The Impossible)
Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook)
Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty)
Quvenzhane Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild)
Marion Cotillard (Rust and Bone)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables)
Helen Hunt (The Sessions)
Sally Field (Lincoln)
Maggie Smith (Best Exotic Marigold Hotel)
Nicole Kidman (The Paperboy)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln)
Alan Arkin (Argo)
Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master)
Robert De Niro (Silver Linings Playbook)
Leonardo DiCaprio (Django Unchained)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Zero Dark Thirty
Django Unchained
The Master
Moonrise Kingdom
Flight

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Argo
Lincoln
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Silver Linings Playbook
Life of Pi

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Skyfall
Anna Karenina
Zero Dark Thirty

BEST ART DIRECTION
Anna Karenina
Lincoln
Cloud Atlas
Les Miserables
Django Unchained

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Lincoln
Les Miserables
Anna Karenina
Snow White and the Huntsman
Cloud Atlas

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Lincoln
Life of Pi
Skyfall
Cloud Atlas
Argo

BEST EDITING
Argo
Lincoln
Zero Dark Thirty
Skyfall
Life of Pi

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Life of Pi
The Hobbit
Skyfall
Cloud Atlas
The Avengers

BEST MAKEUP
Lincoln
Les Miserables
The Hobbit

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Brave
Frankenweenie
ParaNorman
The Painting
Wreck-It Ralph

Les Miserables (Jo***)

At long last, the movie musical of 2012 has arrived, and to my dismay, the film only managed to just pass. Here is a musical known the world over, with music as iconic as any Broadway has to offer, yet Tom Hooper (our director) has in many ways failed to live up to the unparalleled hype surrounding the premiere. There is nothing terribly wrong with Les Miserables, but there is nothing terribly good, either.

The film follows the Broadway arrangement to a near T, with the occasional lines of dialogue added in - most likely to cater to a wider audience not familiar with the non-stop singing the show generally provides. For the sake of time, I will assume everyone is fairly familiar with the plot, so we can simply jump into a more critical review.

The film's one true strength is the cast, as nearly every actor carries their own, with particular praise to Hugh Jackman, Anne Hathaway, and Eddie Redmayne. We have heard the Oscar buzz surrounding Hathaway's brief performance for some time, and yes, she delivers, but did she only take the part in hopes of winning gold? 'I Dreamed A Dream' occurs in one continuous take, and Anne surely jumps from emotion to emotion, sure to win hearts of audience members all over. Hugh Jackman, likewise, delivers a strong performance, with his first 10 minutes of the film some of the strongest of his career. It is Eddie Redmayne, surprisingly, that steals the show, with a purely naturalistic style of acting and true power behind every moment he is on screen. Personally, he was the true star of the film for me.

Acting aside, my main flaw with the film is found with the camera work. I had heard poor reviews going in, but their arguments were truly justified. People go to the cinema for the escapist qualities it provides; able to transport them into a world unlike their own. Hooper, however, finds himself lost in the cinematic translation. Many of the songs are done in one continuous shot, solely as a closeup on the actor's face. This heavy-handed approach is too much for a film already overflowing with emotion. We do not need to see every tear drop to feel the actor's work - body language can sometimes be just as powerful, though it is lost as we instead have uncomfortable shots of faces that seem never ending.

The musical on stage has a smooth flow and timeless feel, but the film seems to fall back on this version a bit too much. Again with cinema, there is the power to jump through time and space, and there was undoubtedly a lot of creative choices that could have been made with the story's execution. Instead, the film becomes predictable and formulaic only because of it's already iconic structure.

I know this film is expected to rake in Oscar nominations come Awards season, but I personally believe it only deserves a small handful. There is nothing terrible about the film, but the faults are blatant enough to strike a chord. Russell Crowe, paired against Broadway stars like Jackman, sings like a drunk karaoke singer. Not terrible, but not on par with the other actors of the film. Helena Bonham Carter and Sasha Baron Cohen are lazily typecast as the inn keepers, bringing nothing new to their respective roles. Samantha Barks, reprising the role she played on stage as Eponine, is effective but alarmingly thin - to the point of being distracting. Her waist is one that will defy science for years to come, I'm sure.

Les Miserables could have been the film of the year, but as with all films built up by hype - the realization will never match the expectations. I know many people have found this film to be everything they hoped for and more. Myself, I think the hype has killed the film I dreamed...

(Awards potential: Best Actor (Jackman), Best Supporting Actress (Hathaway), Best Supporting Actor (Redmayne), Best Editing, Best Costume Design, Best Art Direction, Best Sound Mixing, Best Sound Editing)

The Perks of Being a Wallflower (Jo***)

The pains and joys of high school has been a focus in film for decades - perhaps best captured by the John Hughes films of the 1980's. The Perks of Being A Wallflower attempts to explore the life of one character as he transitions through his first year of school - and generally is a success, though the film often falls victim to a generic story arch.

We meet Charlie, the film's hero - a freshman in school with absolutely no luck at making friends, until he somewhat awkwardly meets two high school seniors (committed performances by Emma Watson and Ezra Miller) and the three quickly become inseparable. Charlie learns the meaning of friendship, love, loss, and self-discovery.

Directed by Stephen Chobsky, the source novel's author, there is undoubtedly a clear vision for the film, and the actors all are wholly committed to the performances. There is much to admire in the film, but there is never a time when I felt Chobsky truly took risks with his story. Of course his novel was successful enough to be optioned as a film, but the film doesn't take risks of its own. It is in no way boring, or poorly-made. It is just fine, in general.

There has been a lot of passion from audience members who are familiar with the story - and some have boldly called this the best movie of the year. While I won't put it past them that the story has merits and the film is a solid piece of filmmaking, to call it revelatory is in no way accurate. The actors make the most of their roles, with Miller and a surprising Paul Rudd delivering solid performances. Beyond that, Wallflower is just another addition to the self-discovery section of the high school drama genre.

(Awards potential: Best Supporting Actor (Miller), Best Adapted Screenplay)