As we said before, it seems like we might have the faintest bit of clarity at the conclusion of the DGA Awards last night. Carrying late into the night, the final award of the evening (and the one that is an accurate barometer for Best Picture over 80% of the time) went to Alfonso Cuaron for his direction of Gravity. As we stated in the previous post, should Gravity pull off a victory here, the race would be over. What has been seen as a major Oscar contender would be everyone's safe bet for Best Picture and Best Director from here until Oscar night on that first Sunday in March.
So a recap with the major guild awards:
SAG Ensemble:
American Hustle
Producer's Guild:
Gravity & 12 Years a Slave
Director's Guild:
Gravity
In years past, films that go on to win Best Picture usually sweep these categories (think Argo, the King's Speech, Slumdog Millionaire, No Country for Old Men, etc). What this year offered was a rare split. Just think, should a single vote have been off, 12 Years a Slave could have been the sole PGA winner, and there would be no clear consensus in any race! Gravity stands as the front-runner now because it won the coveted DGA prize on top of the already-significant PGA.
Historically speaking, it is unlikely for the Oscar prize to go any other way. In fact, there have only been 3 instances of a film winning both PGA & DGA only to lose the Best Picture Race (Apollo 13, Saving Private Ryan, Brokeback Mountain). In 2 of those races, the Best Picture winner ended up being one that took home the SAG Ensemble Prize (Shakespeare in Love & Crash, respectively). Does this mean that should Gravity lose, American Hustle is next in line?
In a year with so many firsts, it seems like rules are being thrown out the window left and right. Who knows.
I would say that since PGA and Oscars now have the same voting system (the preferential voting system), that would give us a better idea of the race. Of course, that means an incredibly close race between Gravity and 12 Years a Slave. If American Hustle allegedly placed 3rd for the PGA prize, what chance does it have at Best Picture?
Of course, we're always in for a surprise at the Oscars. Perhaps Gravity will be that surprise: the first science-fiction genre film to win Best Picture, the first Mexican filmmaker to win Best Director. It will be well-deserved to say the least. Our final award show before "the big night" will be the BAFTA's in February. Depending on how those awards swing, we could either see Gravity reinforced as the Oscar juggernaut, or another film (12 Years a Slave? American Hustle?) rack up a few needed prizes...
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