Golden Globe Predictions

Perhaps not our favorite night of the year, perhaps not even the second.... Regardless, some feel that the Golden Globes hold some weight when it comes to final Oscar outcome. Meaning: Globe winners influence Academy voters. 

Wrong. 

Regardless, this Sunday (January 12th), the Golden Globes will officially kick off the televised awards season, and with some excitement, we can finally see some speeches, dresses, snubs, and triumphs. As they are one of the first major awards to be presented, predicting a winner is oftentimes a shot in the dark. Regardless, these are the official picks of MoJo. 

Best Picture, Drama

1. 12 Years A Slave

2. Gravity

3. Captain Phillips

4. Philomena

5. Rush

A stark lineup of films. In 'normal' situations, the film with the most nominations (12 Years A Slave = 7) is the front-runner. With the Globes, anything is fair game. Gravity has some supporters, but the Hollywood Foreign Press (who votes for these awards) might have a hard time turning down the largely British ensemble that made up "12 Years." 

Best Picture, Musical or Comedy

 1. American Hustle

2. Nebraska

3. Inside Llewyn Davis

4. The Wolf of Wall Street

5. Her

Wow! What a lineup. Without a doubt the strongest grouping of "comedy/musical" films the Globes has ever collected (remember when "The Tourist" was a nominee?). Reaction to "Wall Street" was slim, and with "Hustle" receiving the most nominations (7), and with David O. Russell due from last year, this would make sense. 

Best Actor, Drama

1. Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave)

2. Robert Redford (All Is Lost)

3. Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club)

4. Tom Hanks (Captain Phillips)

5. Idris Elba (Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom)

Another impressive lineup. In theory, I think any of the top 4 have a shot. Hanks has the popularity the Globes love, McConaughey had the breakthrough role, Redford has the legacy, and Ejiofor has the best film. My God let's just take this leap and assume Chiwetel will be our guy. 

Best Actress, Drama

1. Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine)

2. Sandra Bullock (Gravity)

3. Judi Dench (Philomena)

4. Emma Thompson (Saving Mr. Banks)

5. Kate Winslet (Labor Day)

The most suspense in this category is whether Kate will be seated near Leo.

Best Actor, Comedy or Musical

1. Bruce Dern (Nebraska)

2. Christian Bale (American Hustle)

3. Leonardo DiCaprio (Wolf of Wall Street)

4. Inside Llewyn Davis (Oscar Isaac)

5. Joaquin Phoenix (Her)

If there's a 'funny' performance, the Globes aren't afraid to snatch it, regardless of critical acclaim (Robert Downey in Sherlock Homes, Sasha Baron Cohen in Borat, etc). With this lineup, though, they might just go with their favorite film, and seeing Bruce Dern in stage could be a very touching moment. (Many think Leo has this in the bag. That's difficult for me to see happening, but I may be proven very wrong)

Best Actress, Comedy or Musical

1. Amy Adams (American Hustle)

2. Meryl Streep (August: Osage County)

3. Julia Louis-Dreyfus (Enough Said)

4. Julie Delpy (Before Midnight)

5. Greta Gerwig (Frances Ha)

The Globes LOVE Meryl. LOVE. My God, she has 8 of them already. Her performance isn't even terrible - in fact she may be the only person in this list to receive an Oscar nomination. But what about Amy Adams? I don't know... Hustle is most likely winning the Globe, and Adams isn't a stranger to Globe nominations... Part of me wants to go out on a limb and pick someone like Louis-Dreyfus, and part of me wants Meryl at #1. I may regret this choice...

Best Supporting Actor

1. Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club)

2. Bradley Cooper (American Hustle)

3. Michael Fassbender (12 Years a Slave)

4. Barkhad Abdi (Captain Phillips)

5. Daniel Bruhl (Rush)

Going back to 2007, this category has lined up with the Oscars every time. Safe bet now would be to pick the current Oscar front-runner.  Lots of buzz surrounding Fassbender, but his character is almost TOO villainous to win. When villains win, they're generally a fun character (The Joker, Hans Landa). A slave-beating Bible-quoting fiend is just too.... heavy....

Best Supporting Actress

1. Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle)

2. Lupita N'yongo (12 Years a Slave)

3. June Squibb (Nebraska)

4. Julia Roberts (August: Osage County)

5. Sally Hawkins (Blue Jasmine)

As of now, I would predict Lupita to have a slight advantage at the Oscars. Again, though, the Globes are first and foremost a spectacle - they want the star power, they want the young viewers, they want popular winners, and who's a more popular actress than Jennifer Lawrence? (She's the only thing that has been universally raved about in the film, too). 

Best Director

1. Gravity: Alfonso Cuarón

2. 12 Years a Slave: Steve McQueen

3. American Hustle: David O. Russell

4. Captain Phillips: Paul Greengrass

5. Nebraska: Alexander Payne

The last time the winner here went on to Oscar glory was Danny Boyle in 2008... By that logic, Gravity seems like a great choice: high-tech, visual, smart. Don't forget that James Cameron won for Avatar and Scorsese won for Hugo. This makes sense. 

Best Screenplay

1. American Hustle

2. Philomena: Steve Coogan, Jeff Pope

3. 12 Years a Slave: John Ridley

4. Nebraska: Bob Nelson

5. Her: Spike Jonze 

Gah. We know 12 Years will win Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars. Shouldn't it win here? American Hustle would make sense, but movies rarely win a sweep at the Globes (here we have it winning 4 awards). Philomena received a good collection of nominations, maybe they'll want to throw it a bone?

Best Original Score

1. Gravity

2. 12 Years a Slave 

3. The Book Thief

4. All Is Lost

5. Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom

Best Original Song

1. Frozen "Let It Go"

2. Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom "Ordinary Love"

3. Inside Llewyn Davis "Please Mr Kennedy" 

4. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire "Atlas"

5. One Chance "Sweeter than Fiction"

Best Animated Film

1. Frozen

2. The Croods

3. Despicable Me 2

Best Foreign Language Film

1. The Great Beauty

2. Blue Is the Warmest Color

3. The Wind Rises

4. The Past

5. The Hunt

Happy watching, everyone!