One of the closest races in Oscar memory (allegedly) has just entered a new frontier. Our Guild Awards (Screen Actors', Producers', and Directors') are almost weighed in, and in just a few short days, the Oscar race should be in full focus and our front-runners locked in. Either way, our Best Picture & Best Director winners will be one (or a few) of the following films: Gravity. American Hustle. 12 Years a Slave. In a few short days, we'll have a good idea of who will win what.
Allegedly...
SAG
The first major race of the guilds - a close call between American Hustle and 12 Years a Slave. American Hustle won Ensemble (the equivalent of Best Picture), and 12 Years a Slave won Best Supporting Actress (Lupita N'yongo's second-consecutive victory and her guarantee as Oscar-front runner from here on out). While this award generally favors Best Picture (Argo, The King's Speech, Slumdog Millionaire), it just as frequently awards the eventual non-Best Picture winner (The Help, Inlourious Basterds, Little Miss Sunshine). 12 Years losing was not the end, but it was a sure boost for American Hustle.
PGA
Last night's un-televised awards that went well into the night culminated in this year's most baffling and improbably winner: a tie between Gravity and 12 Years a Slave. Perhaps it doesn't sound too crazy. After all, there was a tie at last year's Oscars alone (Best Sound Editing). It happens... Right?
Mathematically, it's improbable to say the least. The PGA (like the Oscars) are voted on by means of a 'preferential ballot,' meaning each member ranks the 10 nominees from best to worst. This means your #9 spot is just as influential as your #1 spot. A film needs at least 50% of the final first-place votes to win. In order to do this, the film with the least number of first place votes is eliminated, and the rest of the films on those ballots are distributed (Let's say I vote for 'Blue Jasmine' as my #1 pick. If that film received the least amount of first place votes, my vote is discarded. If I had 12 Years a Slave in #2, then, it would be the equivalent of a #1 (since my original first place vote is void) and the process continues). Depending on how many votes there are, this process continues until one film is left victorious.
Allegedly.
The fact that Gravity and 12 Years a Slave tied means that of the 5,000 members who voted (according to the PGA website, and assuming they all voted), Gravity and 12 Years a Slave each received the exact same number of first, second, third, fourth, etc place votes! How is that possible? I'm not sure it is. But it happened. The PGA is perhaps the second-best forecaster of the Best Picture winner, so American Hustle not even being in the top two almost forces me to rule out its chances for the top prize.
DGA
The DGA's (come January 25th) are notoriously the best predictor of the Oscars for Best Picture & Director. Forget the Oscars in March - a week from now, the race may be over. There are 3 potential outcomes of these awards:
1) Gravity wins. This will cement it as Best Picture front-runner until the Oscars, when it will invariably win Best Director and Best Picture. The race will be over.
2) 12 Years a Slave wins. This will lock 12 Years a Slave into the Best Picture Oscar, leaving a tiny margin of error. Best Director will be almost locked, but Alfonso Cuaron will still have the slightest chance of winning. (This award is more accurate in predicting Best Picture over Best Director, and since Cuaron is the season's front runner for Directing, he will still have a fighting chance).
3) American Hustle wins. This seems improbable. American Hustle would surge to the front of the race, and with its SAG Ensemble award in hand, it would easily snag Best Picture, though I feel as if Gravity or 12 Years a Slave would eventually win the Directing Oscar.
Whatever the outcome, this year's race is delicate to say the least. As of now, 12 Years a Slave is my DGA prediction. The suspense is dreadful...
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