Oscar Nominations - What's the state of this Oscar race?

They're here.... At long last, no more waiting, no more suspense, all bets are off, predictions for the PREDICTIONS of the Oscar nominees have come to fruition. And in many cases, we were left with some surprises, some good, some bad (depending on how much you liked "Saving Mr Banks"). The grand total: "American Hustle" and "Gravity" tie for most nominations at 10 each, "12 Years A Slave" trails behind at 9. "12 Years" was originally forcasted to get double-digit nominations and lead the race. Not the case, it seems. Let's take a look and see what's going on, what missed, what made it, what could win. (We'll have them ranked in terms of likeliness to win)


BEST PICTURE

Another year of 9 nominees. The only surprising shut-out was "Inside Llewyn Davis" in place of "Philomena," and if you're were an active champion of Walt Disney, the "Saving Mr Banks" snub (which was pretty easy to forecast). We won't know the winner until the DGA (Director's Guild) announces their winner, because overlap between this category and their pick is almost always unanimous. Based on these nominations, though, there's a great love of one film in particular:

1. "American Hustle"
2. "12 Years a Slave"
3. "Gravity"
4. "Nebraska"
5. "The Wolf of Wall Street"
6. "Captain Phillips"
7. "Dallas Buyers Club"
8. "Philomena"
9. "Her"


BEST DIRECTOR

I knew I should have posted my predictions for these awards a few nights ago. The general thought was that Paul Greengrass would be a shoe-in for "Captain Phillips." However, it seems that historically speaking, the love for Alexander Payne trumps all. It was a shame for anyone not to see his nomination coming. Very solid list of men in this category:

1. Alfonso Cuaron, "Gravity"
2. Steve McQueen, "12 Years a Slave"
3. David O. Russell, "American Hustle"
4. Martin Scorsese, "The Wolf of Wall Street"
5. Alexander Payne, "Nebraska"


BEST ACTOR

My favorite surprise of the nominations this morning: Christian Bale sneaking in for his absolutely spot-on performance. If I would have known it would come at the cost of Tom Hanks, I would have second thoughts, especially because Hanks was considered a front-runner for most of the season. So was Robert Redford! Anyways, let's take this time to give Leo a round of applause on his 4th nomination and congratulate him on being Master of the Universe.

1. Matthew McConaughey, "Dallas Buyers Club"
2. Chiwetel Ejiofor, "12 Years a Slave"
3. Leonardo DiCaprio, "The Wolf of Wall Street"
4. Bruce Dern, "Nebraska"
5. Christian Bale, "American Hustle"


BEST ACTRESS

For about 5 days, people began thinking Meryl Streep would miss on a nomination for her work, mainly because she lost to Amy Adams at the Golden Globes. I started to believe them, but people must realize, Oscar voters had already submitted their picks for nominations before the Globes on Sunday. Also, what would a world be without Miss Streep as a nominee? The shocking snub here, then, was Emma Thompson, who literally was a lock on everyone's radar. Very well-deserved Amy Adams nomination, though (her first in Lead Actress and the only woman in the bunch to have never won an Oscar).

1. Cate Blanchett, "Blue Jasmine"
2. Sandra Bullock, "Gravity"
3. Amy Adams, "American Hustle"
4. Judi Dench, "Philomena"
5. Meryl Streep, "August: Osage County"


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

2-time Academy Award nominee Jonah Hill. Quite a surprise, but richly deserved! The 'snub' here was possibly Daniel Bruhl or James Gandolfini, but their miss didn't pack as hard of a punch. Michael Fassbender finally gets his first Oscar nomination, and Barkhad Abdi stands as the only acting nomination from "Captain Phillips." Who knew??

1. Jared Leto, "Dallas Buyers Club"
2. Michael Fassbender, "12 Years a Slave"
3. Barkhad Abdi, "Captain Phillips"
4. Bradley Cooper, "American Hustle"
5. Jonah Hill, "The Wolf of Wall Street"


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

I'm sure Oprah woke up a little hurt having been snubbed by Oscar voters. Out of any acting category this year, her nomination has been guaranteed for the longest. But in Academy defense, these 5 women are stellar and I would happily take any of them over Oprah any day. Sally Hawkins might have to watch her back from now on, but she, too, should be thrilled with her first (and due) Oscar nomination! (We should also note that this is the second consecutive year that a David O. Russell movie has received acting nominations in all 4 categories - which is an insanely rare achievement).

1. Jennifer Lawrence, "American Hustle"
2. Lupita Nyong'o, "12 Years a Slave"
3. June Squibb, "Nebraska"
4. Julia Roberts, "August: Osage County"
5. Sally Hawkins, "Blue Jasmine"


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

No Coen Brothers, but this is an otherwise great list.

1. "American Hustle"
2. "Her"
3. "Nebraska"
4. "Blue Jasmine"
5. "Dallas Buyers Club"


BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

No surprises here. The easiest 'lock' we have on an Oscar so far this year:

1. "12 Years a Slave"
2. "Before Midnight"
3. "Philomena"
4. "The Wolf of Wall Street"
5. "Captain Phillips"


BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

More to come on this category. 

1. "The Great Beauty"
2. "Omar"
3. "The Hunt"
4. "The Missing Picture'
5. "The Broken Circle Breakdown"


BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

No Pixar!

1. "Frozen"
2. "The Wind Rises"
3. "The Croods"
4. "Despicable Me 2"
5. "Ernest and Celestine"


BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

No "Blackfish," but that's not too shocking of a snub...

1. "The Act of Killing"
2. "Cutie and the Boxer"
3. "Dirty Wars"
4. "The Square"
5. "20 Feet From Stardom"


BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Here's where I start to get worried about "12 Years A Slave." It missed several technical categories (Original Score is another) where it was presumedly locked. Does that show less love for the film than we thought? It very well might be the case.

1. "Gravity"
2. "The Grandmaster"
3. "Inside Llewyn Davis"
4. "Prisoners"
5. "Nebraska"


BEST COSTUME DESIGN

All the usual nominees (although "The Grandmaster" got a lot more love than we initially thought). I still see this going the way of the 70's:

1. "American Hustle"
2. "12 Years a Slave"
3. "The Grandmaster"
4. "The Great Gatsby"
5. "The Invisible Woman"


BEST EDITING

Another shocking snub: Thelma Schoonmaker for "Wolf of Wall Street." And it was replaced by "Dallas Buyers Club??" That's bizarre. Also a little shocked we didn't see more action films - "Rush" was another potential candidate here that just missed it.

1. "Gravity"
2. "American Hustle"
3. "Captain Phillips"
4. "12 Years a Slave"
5. "Dallas Buyers Club"


BEST MAKEUP

Interestingly that "American Hustle" missed here. I think that hurts a little too much, especially considering it was snubbed by the likes of "Bad Grandpa" and "The Lone Ranger." That was the safe front-runner, and now it's anyone's guess.

1. "The Lone Ranger"
2. "Dallas Buyers Club"
3. "Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa"


BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

All the usual nominees, including "Gravity," which I thought would have missed due to its computer animation and lack of actual 'built' sets. So exciting to see "Her" nominated here!

1. "The Great Gatsby"
2. "American Hustle"
3. "12 Years a Slave"
4. "Gravity"
5. "Her"


BEST SCORE

"12 Years A Slave" where are you? "Her" was a major upset here, and I'm starting to think this movie might have the support to win an award or two... "Saving Mr. Banks" sole nomination.

1. "Gravity"
2. "Philomena"
3. "The Book Thief"
4. "Saving Mr. Banks"
5. "Her"


BEST SONG

And here's that "Her" nomination again, completely unexpected and almost bizarre. After the Golden Globes, I wouldn't be surprised to see U2 win an Oscar.

1. "Ordinary Love" from "Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom"
2. "Let it Go" from "Frozen"
3. "Alone, Yet Not Alone" from "Alone, Yet Not Alone"
4. "The Moon Song" from "Her"
5. "Happy" from "Despicable Me 2"


BEST SOUND EDITING

Strong showing for "The Hobbit" in tech categories, as well as "Lone Survivor" getting both sound nominations.

1. "Gravity"
2. "All is Lost"
3. "Lone Survivor"
4. "Captain Phillips"
5. "The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug"


BEST SOUND MIXING

"Inside Llewyn Davis's" second nomination:

1. "Gravity"
2. "Lone Survivor"
3. "Captain Phillips"
4. "The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug"
5. "Inside Llewyn Davis"



BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Duh.

1. "Gravity"
5. "The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug"
5. "Iron Man 3"
5. "The Lone Ranger"
5. "Star Trek: Into Darkness"